
欧洲领导人知道他们无法停止对唐纳德·特朗普的讨好。但随着美国总统威胁乌克兰并向俄罗斯提供经济生命线,他们正在为一个特朗普实际上站在莫斯科一边的世界做准备。
European leaders know they can’t stop courting Donald Trump. But as the US president menaces Ukraine and offers Russian an economic lifeline, they are preparing for a world where he effectively sides with Moscow.
作者:Andrea Palasciano、Alberto Nardelli 和 Ott Tammik 在一周的时间里,特朗普毁掉了对克里姆林宫多年的能源制裁,施压基辅停止轰炸俄罗斯的炼油厂,并暗示乌克兰的弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基是一个不合法的领导人——这呼应了莫斯科的宣传。在某个时刻,乌克兰也失去了对埃隆·马斯克拥有的星链系统的全部访问权,使其在战场上陷入困境。
By Andrea Palasciano, Alberto Nardelli and Ott Tammik In the span of a week, Trump has trashed years of energy sanctions on the Kremlin, pressured Kyiv to quit bombing Russian oil refineries and suggested Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy was an illegitimate leader — echoing Moscow’s propaganda. At one point, Ukraine also lost full access to the Elon Musk-owned Starlink system, leaving it hobbled on the battlefield.
作为回应,泽连斯基大发雷霆。他说他感到被背叛。他在公开场合指责特朗普。
In response, Zelenskyy let rip. He felt betrayed, he said. He called out Trump in public.
根据熟悉本周布鲁塞尔领导人峰会对话的人士透露,这对欧洲人来说是一个令人沮丧的时刻。
It was a dismaying moment for the Europeans, according to people familiar with the conversations at a leaders’ summit in Brussels this week.
对许多人来说,这暴露了他们一直在回避数月的痛苦现实:特朗普的本能是攻击基辅并扶持俄罗斯。而且这种情况不太可能改变,几位欧盟领导人,包括法国和德国的领导人,在私下对话中这样表示。泽连斯基本人将在周五出席会议并发表讲话。
For many, it exposed a painful reality they’ve been avoiding for months: Trump’s instinct is to bash Kyiv and boost Russia. And that’s unlikely to change, several European Union leaders, including those of France and Germany, said during their private conversations. Zelenskyy himself will address the meeting on Friday.
“西方联盟现在的处境比几天前更弱了,”丹麦首相梅特·弗雷德里克森在周四抵达比利时首都参加会谈时对记者说。“如果你不支持乌克兰,那么你就会让整个欧洲,在我看来,也因此让整个北约陷入一个更加危险的境地。”特朗普和泽连斯基以前也遇到过类似情况,而且他们总是找到了修复关系的办法。他们去年在椭圆形办公室的首次会议演变成了一场喊叫争吵,并促使美国暂时限制情报共享。
“The western alliance is in a weaker position now than it was a few days ago,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters as she arrived for talks in the Belgian capital Thursday. “If you do not support Ukraine, then you put Europe as a whole, and in my view therefore also NATO as a whole, in a much, much more dangerous situation.”Trump and Zelenskyy have been here before, of course, and always found a way to patch things up. Their first meeting in the Oval Office last year descended into a shouting match and prompted the US to briefly curb intelligence sharing.
后来,美国试图说服基辅接受一份 overwhelmingly 有利于俄罗斯的 28 点和平计划,这促使泽连斯基警告他的国家可能失去其关键伙伴。
Later, the US tried to convince Kyiv to accept a 28-point peace plan that overwhelmingly favored Russia, prompting Zelenskyy to warn his country risked losing its key partner.
到今年夏天,欧洲领导人设法说服特朗普对乌克兰长期抵抗俄罗斯入侵表现出一定程度的同情。在法国举行的七国集团峰会上,法国总统马克龙安排了特朗普与泽连斯基的一次简短会面,泽连斯基向他展示了俄罗斯导弹摧毁的基辅大教堂的照片。他们最近的分歧发生在一个特别不合时宜的时刻。
By this summer, European leaders had managed to persuade Trump to show a degree of sympathy for Ukraine’s long fight against the Russian invasion. At the Group of Seven summit in France, President Emmanuel Macron engineered a brief meeting between with Trump at which Zelenskyy showed him pictures of cathedral in Kyiv decimated by Russian missiles. Their latest falling-out is happening at a particularly inopportune moment.
冬天正在到来,乌克兰缺乏美国制造的“爱国者”拦截导弹,而这些导弹是击落俄罗斯导弹所必需的。基辅的军费开支也在其预算中制造了一个巨大的缺口,而欧洲正努力填补这一缺口。与此同时,俄罗斯正在加大对民用目标的打击,导致基辅出现间歇性的供电和供水中断。
Winter is setting in and Ukraine has a shortage of the US-made Patriot interceptors needed to shoot down Russian missiles. Kyiv’s military costs are also blowing a hole in its budget that Europe is struggling to fill. Meanwhile, Russian is striking more civilian targets, leaving Kyiv experiencing intermittent power and water supply cuts.
下个月,俄罗斯总统普京将在中国举行的亚太经济合作峰会上有机会与特朗普会面——届时泽连斯基和欧洲领导人均不会出席。
Next month, Russian leader Vladimir Putin will have a chance to meet with Trump at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China — where neither Zelenskyy nor the Europeans will be present.
特朗普方面,他距离中期选举仅剩几周时间,届时他的共和党预计将遭受重大损失——这促使他寻找快速降低油价的方法。这种执念正在推动特朗普尽管存在制裁,仍试图购买俄罗斯柴油,并呼吁乌克兰停止对炼油厂的袭击,即使专家表示,美国对伊朗的战争才是导致油价高企的最大因素。
Trump, for his part, is weeks away from a midterm election where his Republican party is expected to suffer heavy losses — sending him searching for quick ways to lower gas prices. That fixation is informing Trump’s push to buy Russian diesel despite sanctions, and his calls for Ukraine to halt attacks on oil refineries, even if experts say the US war on Iran is the largest culprit behind high fuel costs.
目前,大多数欧洲人建议泽连斯基克制对特朗普的批评,鉴于没有替代方案可以取代与美国的合作,知情人士如是说。该国继续向乌克兰出售武器并分享对基辅防御至关重要的情报。如果这些情报消失,欧洲将没有好的解决方案,一位官员表示。
For now, most Europeans are recommending that Zelenskyy temper his criticism of Trump, given there is no alternative to working with the US, the people said. The country continues to sell Ukraine weapons and share intelligence vital to Kyiv’s defense. If that intelligence disappeared, Europe would not have a good solution, one official said.
这可能就是为什么欧盟领导人在周四抵达布鲁塞尔参加峰会时,刻意避免对特朗普发表过于公开的批评。然而,知情人士透露,在闭门会议中,仍有几位领导人对特朗普最近的行为表示震惊。
That’s likely why EU leaders were careful not to be too publicly critical of Trump as they arrived Thursday for their summit in Brussels. Behind closed doors, however, several still expressed shock at the US president’s recent behavior, the people said.

爱丽舍宫一名官员表示,法国的优先事项是让欧洲继续支持乌克兰。德国总理府一名发言人未立即回应置评请求。
An Elysee official said France’s priority is for Europe to continue supporting Ukraine. A German chancellery spokesperson didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.
欧洲在维持制裁并坚持乌克兰不应在和平协议中割让领土的问题上立场坚定,尤其是在基辅军队在顿巴斯东部地区收复部分失地之后,普京希望控制该地区。
Europe is sticking to its guns by upholding sanctions and insisting that Ukraine shouldn’t cede territory in a peace settlement, especially after Kyiv’s forces regained some lost ground in the eastern region of Donbas Putin wants to control.
过去几个月,美国对乌克兰的影响力也有所下降。尽管情报仍是一个重要因素,但支持基辅和购买美国武器的资金主要来自欧洲。乌克兰也终于收到了用于F-16战斗机的弹药,以击落俄罗斯令人生畏的喷气式无人机。
US leverage over Ukraine has also diminished over the last few months. While intelligence remains an important factor, the money to support Kyiv and buy US weapons comes primarily from Europe. Ukraine is also finally receiving ammunition for F-16 fighter jets to shoot down Russia’s menacing jet-powered drones.
与此同时,华盛顿推动和平的努力,特朗普曾承诺在去年上任后不久实现,进展不大。知情人士称,周末在佛罗里达州举行的最新会谈,乌克兰代表团在特朗普的俄罗斯柴油交易之后缩短了行程,主要集中在重复总统特使——史蒂文·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳——数月前制定的同一套观点。
Meanwhile, Washington’s efforts to deliver peace, which Trump promised to bring shortly after taking office last hear, haven’t made much headway. The latest meetings in Florida over the weekend, which the Ukrainian delegation cut short following Trump’s Russia diesel deal, largely focused on going over the same set of points that the president’s envoys — Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner — drew up months ago, according to people familiar with the matter.
知情人士称,周一在一次会议上,欧盟外长们私下同意,无论华盛顿如何变幻,欧洲对乌克兰的政策都必须保持不变。他们决定在可能时与美国接触,在不可能时继续支持基辅。
During a meeting on Monday, EU foreign ministers privately agreed that Europe’s policy on Ukraine must remain constant, regardless of the gyrations in Washington, according to people briefed on the discussions. They resolved to engage the US when it’s possible, and maintain their support for Kyiv when it’s not.
“我们对这场战争的做法肯定不同,”欧盟外交政策负责人卡娅·卡拉斯周四在布鲁塞尔对记者说。“我们看到,必须向侵略者施压以停止战争,而不是向受害者施压使其投降。挤压乌克兰不是正确的做法。”
“We definitely have a different approach to this war,” EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas told reporters in Brussels on Thursday. “We see that we have to pressure the aggressor to stop the war, not the victim to surrender. Squeezing Ukraine is not the right approach.”