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法国总统选举前夕,学生抗议是否正受到操纵?Are student protests being manipulated ahead of France's presidential election?

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法国总理指责激进左翼利用高中运动谋取选举优势The French prime minister has accused the radical left of weaponising the high school movement for electoral advantage

法国总理指责激进左翼利用高中生运动谋取选举利益欧洲编辑 卡特娅·阿德勒29分钟前法国人对抗议的热情在欧洲是出了名的。

The French prime minister has accused the radical left of weaponising the high school movement for electoral advantage Katya Adler Europe Editor 29 minutes ago The French passion for protest is legendary in Europe.

近年来,我们经常目睹农民因法规成本高昂而愤怒,向当地市长办公室泼洒粪肥;蒙面青年在弱势城市郊区定期向防暴警察投掷自制手榴弹。

Over the last few years, we have regularly witnessed farmers angry about costly regulations lobbing manure at local mayoral offices, while masked youths periodically hurl homemade grenades at riot police in disadvantaged city suburbs.

三周多来,数千名学生设置路障封锁高中入口,并走上街头表达不满。本周六,法国各地已宣布举行数百场新的示威活动。预计工人工会和所谓“黄马甲”运动的关键人物将加入学生行列。

For over three weeks now, thousands of students have barricaded entry to high schools and taken their grievances to the streets. This Saturday, hundreds of new demonstrations have been announced across France. Students are expected to be joined by workers' unions and key figures from the so-called "yellow vest" movement.

法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努本周表示,随着明年总统大选临近、政治气氛升温,学生的愤怒正被操纵。

France's prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, suggested this week that student anger was being manipulated as politics heats up ahead of next year's presidential election.

“黄马甲”从2018年起因生活成本飙升示威逾一年,成为法国历史上持续时间最长的抗议运动之一。

gilets jaunes (yellow vests) demonstrated against cost-of-living hikes for over a year from 2018 - becoming one of the longest-lived protest movements in French history.

热罗姆·罗德里格斯(右)几年前在“黄马甲”运动中发挥了主导作用 “黄马甲”知名活动人士热罗姆·罗德里格斯已利用Instagram呼吁民众参加周六的示威活动。

Jérôme Rodrigues (R) played a leading role in the gilets jaunes movement several years ago Jérôme Rodrigues, a prominent gilets jaunes activist, has used Instagram to encourage people to join Saturday's demonstrations.

杰罗姆·罗德里格斯(R)几年前在黄背心运动中发挥了主导作用Jérôme Rodrigues (R) played a leading role in the gilets jaunes movement several years ago

他在一段视频中表示,抗议应给那些“想要体面地生活、不再需要精打细算每一分、不再需要在吃饭和开车之间做选择”的人发声。他补充道:“愤怒没有政党。空冰箱没有政党。”那么,欧盟第二大经济体究竟发生了什么?

The protests should give a voice to those who "want to be able to live decently, no longer have to count every cent, and no longer have to choose between eating and driving", he said in a video. "Anger has no political party. An empty fridge has no political party," he added. So what is going on in the EU's second largest economy?

社会动荡、政府借贷成本高得惊人、法国议会严重分裂,以及显然陷入循环的沮丧法国总理——五年内更迭六位总理——他们都声称想要减少本国公共债务。

Social unrest, government borrowing costs at eye-watering highs, a deeply divided French parliament and an apparent revolving door of exasperated French prime ministers - six prime ministers over the last five years - all claiming to want to reduce their country's public debt.

法国是否已到崩溃边缘——这对法国占据举足轻重地位的欧元区货币意味着什么?

Is France at breaking-point - and what does this all mean for the eurozone currency the French are such a huge part of?

“你不能把法国和2012年的希腊债务危机或2001年的阿根廷相提并论。金融市场清楚这一点,”经济学家安-洛尔·德拉特(Anne-Laure Delatte)告诉我。

"You can't compare France to the Greece debt crisis of 2012 or Argentina in 2001. And the financial markets know it," economist Anne-Laure Delatte told me.

她是巴黎多菲纳大学经济系的法国国家科学研究中心(CNRS)终身研究员,因法国公共债务的岌岌可危状态,常活跃于法国媒体的辩论中,是一张熟悉的面孔。

She is a CNRS Tenured Researcher at the Economics Department of Paris Dauphine University; a well-known face in debates on French media on the parlous state of the country's public debt.

“市场在2024年就已意识到,在[提前]大选导致议会在三个[对立政治]阵营间严重分裂后,我们将面临预算问题,但它们也认识到法国是一个大国,必要时有能力增税。”“我们的情况更像2023年的英国,当时是特拉斯(Liz Truss)执政,”德拉特认为,她指的是时任英国首相的所谓“迷你预算”,该预算引发英镑急跌、政府债券收益率飙升和抵押贷款利率飙涨。

"The markets recognised already in 2024 that we would have a budgetary problem after [snap] elections left parliament deeply divided between three [opposing political] blocs but they also realise France is a big country with the ability to raise taxes if necessary." "Our situation is more like the UK in 2023 with Liz Truss," suggests Delatte, referring to the then UK prime minister's so-called mini budget, which triggered a sharp drop in the pound, a spike in government bond yields and soaring mortgage rates.

“那次危机持续时间相对较短,因为市场认可英国拥有扭转局面的金融工具。”“而在法国,这会很痛苦,但增值税提高4%就能筹集填补政府债务所需的1200亿欧元。投资者知道这一点,”她总结道。

"The crisis was relatively short-lived because the markets recognised the UK had the financial tools to right itself." "Here in France it would be painful, but a 4% increase in VAT would raise the 120bn euros needed to plug government debt.

也许,理论上是这样。正如德拉特也指出的,如果法国财政恶化到波及其他欧洲经济体的地步,欧洲央行很可能会介入。

Investors know that," she concludes. Maybe, in theory. And, as Delatte also points out, the European Central Bank would likely intervene if France's finances nosedived to the point where other European economies would be affected.

但鉴于已有如此多法国民众对现状显而易见地不满,设想一下如果税收进一步增加,或福利和教育预算进一步削减,会引发怎样的反应。

But with so many French citizens already visibly unhappy with the status quo, imagine the reaction if taxes were to increase, or welfare and education budgets decrease, further.

法国的国家格言是“自由、平等、博爱”,但在沸腾的街头和病毒式传播的社交媒体帖子中,你绝对感受不到这一点。

France's national motto is liberté, égalité, fraternité (freedom, equality and fraternity), but that is certainly not the sense you get on seething streets and in viral social media posts.

激进左翼“法兰西不屈服”领导人让-吕克·梅朗雄(中)被指责利用学生抗议活动为明年大选造势。

本周我见到了17岁的马克西姆、马德琳和埃洛迪,她们坐在用来堵塞高中入口的大型绿色垃圾桶上,这是持续数周抗议活动的一部分。

Radical-left LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon (C) has been accused of exploiting the student protests ahead of next year's elections I met 17-year-olds Maxime, Madeleine and Elodie this week, perched on big green dustbins that have been used to block the entrance to their high school as part of the weeks' long protest.

激进左翼不屈法国领袖让-吕克·梅朗雄(C)被指在明年选举前利用学生抗议Radical-left LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon (C) has been accused of exploiting the student protests ahead of next year's elections

她们告诉我,这里的情况已经够糟了——位于巴黎第三区,教室墙壁有洞、班级人数激增、教师严重短缺,但这些少女们非常清楚,她们说,首都贫困郊区的情况要糟糕得多。

They told me things were bad enough here, in the 3rd district of Paris, with holes in classroom walls, swelling class sizes and a dearth of teaching staff, but the teenagers were more than aware, they said, that the situation was far worse in their capital city's disadvantaged suburbs.

“法国喜欢谈论‘平等’,”她们对我说,“但现实是,这里的穷人遭受歧视,而富人获益。”明年春天法国大选时,她们都还不到投票年龄,但她们质疑,执政政治家的更替究竟能带来多大改变。

"France likes to speak of égalité " they told me "but the reality is the poor here are prejudiced against, while the rich benefit." None of them will be old enough to vote in the presidential election in France next spring but they questioned whether the changing face of politicians in power made all that much difference anyway.

这三位年轻女性告诉我,大规模抗议似乎是让法国当局听到声音的唯一途径。她们是法国叛逆传统的一部分。

The three young women told me large-scale protests seemed the only way to get heard by French authorities. They are part of a defiant French tradition.

文化偶像维克多·雨果,这位19世纪《悲惨世界》的作者、法国大革命经典巨著的撰写者,同时也是法兰西共和国的活动家,曾宣称:“如果你们不满意,就去示威、呐喊、怒吼,但不要忍气吞声。”

Cultural icon Victor Hugo, the 19th-Century author of French Revolution classic Les Misérables also an activist for the French Republic, proclaimed: " Si vous n'êtes pas contents, manifestez, criez, hurlez, mais ne subissez pas Amongst crowds of protesting students walking through Paris on Thursday, I came across a number of mums, with placards around their necks, reading: "Mums in solidarity."

在周四穿行巴黎的抗议学生人群中,我遇到了一些母亲,脖子上挂着写着“团结的妈妈们”的标语牌。我问她们是来抗议还是来保护孩子?“两者皆有!”她们斩钉截铁地回答。

Were they there to protest or to protect their kids, I asked? "Both!" was the emphatic response.

37岁的格温说,她和其他母亲们每天早上轮流值班,在当地学校的封锁现场协调学生与警方。

Gwen, 37, said she and other mothers were taking it in turns every morning to co-ordinate between students and police at their local school lock-in.

此前,本月早些时候的抗议活动中发生了数百人受伤、朗斯镇一名15岁少年失去一只手的事件,针对警方暴力执法的指控不断升级,法国内政部予以否认。法国内政部长随后暂停了警方在高中示威中使用震撼弹。

This came after mounting accusations of police brutality, denied by France's interior ministry, during protests earlier this month in which hundreds were injured and a 15-year-old boy in the town of Lens lost a hand. France's interior minister has since suspended the use of stun grenades by police at high school demonstrations.

格温告诉我,她并不介意儿子因封锁而错失数周的上学时间。她说:“让他意识到自己的公民责任,为社会正义而战,这对他来说是一种更好的教育。”

Gwen told me she did not mind that her son was missing weeks of school as a result of the lock-ins. "It's a far better education for him to wake up to his civic duty and to fight for what is just in society," she said.

周四的示威活动中,我也遇到了17岁的洛拉和她的母亲桑德琳,她们举着一张写着“革命是人类最美丽的表达”的标语。

At Thursday's demo I also came across 17-year-old Lola and her mother, Sandrine, sharing a placard that said revolution was the most beautiful expression of humanity.

洛拉(右)在抗议中得到了母亲桑德琳的陪伴,桑德琳曾是1968年学生运动的一员。“我妈妈在68年上街了,”洛拉自豪地说。“现在轮到我了。等法国总统选举毫无意义。我们现在就要变革。”法国1968年5月的学生抗议在法国是传奇。对更好教育的需求激发了工人加入游行,这些游行演变成了法国历史上规模最大的总罢工。它为一代人树立了革命动荡的标准,并被认为为法国左翼创造了新的机遇。

Lola (R) was joined in the protest by her mother Sandrine, who had been part of the 1968 student movement "My mum took to the streets in '68," Lola said proudly. "Now it's my turn. No point in waiting for the presidential election in France. We want change now." Student protests in Paris in May 1968 are the stuff of legend in France. Demands for better education inspired workers to join the marches which turned into the ­biggest general strike in French ­history. It set the standard for revolutionary upheaval for a generation and is credited with creating new opportunities for the French left.

洛拉(R)在抗议中得到其母亲桑德琳的陪伴,后者曾参与1968年学生运动Lola (R) was joined in the protest by her mother Sandrine, who had been part of the 1968 student movement

然而如今,距离法国已经充满紧张氛围的总统选举还有六个月,有人指责在总统候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄领导下的硬左派正在利用学生的不满情绪制造武器。

Now, though, with six months to go before an already fraught presidential election in France, there are accusations that the hard left, under presidential hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is weaponising student frustration.

“[梅朗雄的]法国不屈派(LFI)成员正在利用高中运动来谋取选举优势,”塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努在周三说道。他指责他们鼓动抗议,随后又走形式地谴责任何暴力。“这种虚伪损害了法国,”勒科尔努说。

"Members of [Mélenchon's] France Insoumise (LFI) are instrumentalising the high school movement for their electoral advantage," said Sébastien Lecornu on Wednesday. He accused them of encouraging protests, then going through the motions of condemning any violence. "This hypocrisy damages France," said Lecornu.

法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努抱怨说,高中抗议正在演变成“城市暴力运动”,但“梅朗雄总统!”的口号你常能在街头的学生中听到。

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has complained that the high school protests are turning into a "movement of urban violence" But "Mélenchon for President!" is a chant you often hear amongst the students in the streets.

法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努抱怨称,高中抗议正在演变为“城市暴力运动”French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has complained that the high school protests are turning into a "movement of urban violence"

支持者们赞赏他对法国征收财富税的意愿、将投票年龄降至16岁,以及作为唯一一位走进法国学校检查其状况的总统候选人,几位示威者这样告诉我。

Supporters applaud his desire for a wealth tax in France, for lowering the voting age to 16 and for being the only presidential candidate to turn up to French schools to examine the state of them, several demonstrators told me.

对于法国总统竞选中的民族主义反移民热门人物勒庞,解决方案是削减法国向欧盟预算的110亿欧元缴纳额。

For Marine Le Pen, the nationalist anti-immigration favourite in France's presidential race, the solution is cutting the country's €11bn contribution to the EU's budget.

然而,也有理由怀疑,无论来自左翼还是右翼的任何新任法国总统,是否能够打破法国财政上的僵局。

There is, though, reason to doubt that any new French president, from the left or the right, will be able to break the impasse over France's finances.

目前,法国在欧洲面临人口老龄化、需要维持的慷慨福利国家,以及受到美国总统特朗普的贸易关税和波斯湾战争等外部压力挤压的国家经济,并非孤例。

France is far from alone in Europe right now faced with an ageing population, a generous welfare state to run and a national economy squeezed by outside pressures such as US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and the war in the Persian Gulf.

无论是在法国、德国、瑞典还是意大利,那些犹豫着不愿向选民透露公共财政紧缩真相的政客、国防机构要求增加国防支出以及公民坚持改善公共服务之间,存在着固有的张力。

Whether in France, Germany, Sweden or Italy, there is an inherent tension between politicians who hesitate to tell voters the truth about shrinking public finances, the defence establishment's demand for higher defence spending and citizens' insistence on improved public services.

在法国,这种压力尤为突出。法国的公共支出约占GDP的57%,在全球富裕国家中属于较高水平之一。

In France, that pressure is particularly acute. French public expenditure, at about 57% GDP, is one of the steepest amongst wealthy nations worldwide.

尤其是在养老金上的社会支出异常庞大,而法国公民承担着欧洲整体税收和社会缴费负担中最高的水平之一。简单来说,他们期望用税款获得福利和公共服务的回报。

Social spending, particularly on pensions, is exceptionally large, while French citizens pay one of the highest overall tax and social contribution burdens in Europe. Simply put, they expect a welfare and public service bang for their buck.

但经济学家安-劳尔·德拉特并不认为新任总统能够缓解她国家的财政困境。

But economist Anne-Laure Delatte does not believe having a new president will ease her country's financial migraine.

“我们需要宪法改革。一个新的制度。一个新的共和国,”她告诉我。

"We need constitutional change. A new system. A new Republic," she told me.

“我们的第五共和国围绕着一位权力巨大的总统展开。议会的作用是阻挡他或她,而不是寻求共识或制定新法律。”她说,为了让法国前进,这一点必须改变。

"Our Fifth Republic is centred around a powerful president. Parliament is there to block him or her rather than to find consensus or to make new laws." For France to progress, she says, that has to change.

她认为,2027年总统大选之后的法国议会选举很可能一如既往地分裂:“我们需要一个让议员拥有更多权力的体制,并且应该向我们的欧洲邻国学习共识和联盟建设。”在她看来,教育必须得到保护,资金也应更好地分配。她告诉我,这是对法国财政未来的一项投资。

The French parliamentary election that follows the 2027 presidential vote is likely to be as divided as ever, she believes: "We need a system where MPs have more power and should learn consensus and coalition-building from our European neighbours." In her opinion, education had to be protected and funds better distributed. It was an investment in France's financial future, she told me.

“我们目前教育不平等和教师工资偏低的体制意味着,我们无法从法国社会最优秀、最聪明的人才中获益。这不仅对个人不公平,而且我们的经济最终也会在创新和生产力方面受损。”目前,重写法国宪法并不在议程上。于是我问中间派政治家安妮-卡特琳·卢瓦西耶,那么当下该怎么办?

"Our current system of inequality in schooling and low wages for teachers means we lose out from benefiting from the best and brightest across French society. That is not only unfair on individuals but our economy ultimately loses out on innovation and productivity." Re-writing France's constitution is not on the cards, at the moment. So, what about the here and now, I asked centrist politician Anne-Catherine Loisier.

她是法国参议院中间派联盟的参议员,也是议会科学和技术小组的副主席。

She's a senator for the Centrist Union in France's upper house of parliament and vice president of the parliamentary group for sciences and technology.

参议员安妮-卡特琳·卢瓦西耶认为,解决方案在于将权力从巴黎下放。卢瓦西耶和几乎所有法国各政治派别的知名政治家一样表示,抗议的学生“必须感到自己的声音被听到”。

Senator Anne-Catherine Loisier believes the solution lies in decentralising power away from Paris Loisier, along with pretty much every leading French politician across the political spectrum, says the protesting students "must feel heard". "Our budgets are limited," she admitted, "but you don't necessarily need more money. You can make improvements by redistributing funding better. Education is a regional competence in France.

参议员安-凯瑟琳·卢瓦西耶认为解决之道在于将权力从巴黎分散出去Senator Anne-Catherine Loisier believes the solution lies in decentralising power away from Paris

“我们的预算有限,”她承认,“但你不一定需要更多的钱。你可以通过更好地重新分配资金来进行改进。教育在法国是地方事务。每个地区都应该审视当地需求,并相应地解决优先事项。这一行动可以立即采取。”

Every region should take a look at local needs and address priorities accordingly. That action can be taken immediately." I asked Loisier if she agreed with UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, that regions should be given greater powers.

我问洛伊西埃是否同意英国首相安迪·伯纳姆的观点,即大曼彻斯特前市长认为地区应被赋予更大的权力。“完全同意,”她回答。“法国传统上非常以巴黎为中心,但通过分权化国家,许多方面都可以得到改善。”

"Absolutely," she replied. "France has traditionally been very Paris-centric but so much could be improved by decentralising the country." "My France isn't broken. I don't recognise that image you see portrayed in the media. My country is made up of lots of Frances.

“我的法国并未破碎。我不认同媒体中所呈现的那种形象。我的国家由许多'法国'组成。巴黎、各地区;法国北部和南部。我们需要把权力还给人民。地方政府可以直视人民的眼睛,这样选民才会觉得他们能够掌握自己的未来,而不是政治家们从巴黎的高处把命运强加给他们。”

Paris, the regions; northern and southern France. We need to give power back to the people. Local governments can look people in the eye directly, so voters feel they have power over their own future, rather than politicians handing them their fate from up high in Paris."

“那样的话,我希望我们能够恢复选民——以及学生——对政治的信心。”这是你在法国明年大选前常能听到的政客们的承诺——无论是左翼还是右翼。

"That way I hope we can restore voters' - and students' - faith in politics." It's a promise you hear from politicians - right and left - ahead of France's huge elections next year.

但此处的民意调查,正如欧洲大多数地区一样,表明公众对政治阶层的信任正在减少。

But opinion polls here, as across most of Europe, indicate public faith in the political class is in dwindling supply. France Europe Paris Students