美元周五走向五周来首次周度下跌，推动欧元从17个月低位回升，因为AI投资的动荡和美国国债收益率下跌，给近期涨势按下了刹车。
The dollar headed for its first weekly fall in five weeks on Friday, lifting the euro from a 17-month low as wobbles in AI investment and drop in US yields put the brakes on recent gains.
本周AI股票暴跌，压力蔓延至部分信贷市场，因为那些在AI供应链各环节押注的投资者担心，数据中心运营商可能无法及时实现盈利以偿还债务。
AI stocks have cratered this week and the stress spread to parts of the credit market as investors who have crowded in to bets all along the AI supply chain worry that data centre operators might not manage to be profitable in time to pay their debts.
迄今为止，结果是资金涌向美国国债，美国10年期国债收益率将创下一年多来最大周度跌幅，同时抛售美元。美元此前部分受AI热潮提振经济的推动而上涨。
The result, so far, has been a flight to Treasuries, where the US 10-year yield is set for its largest weekly fall in more than a year, and to sell a dollar which has been propelled, in part, thanks to the AI boom boosting the economy.
亚洲早盘走势微弱，美元本周下跌0.2%，报158.13日元，对欧元下跌约0.1%，报1.1210美元。对欧元来说，这一反转来得正是时候，此前五周欧元对美元已下跌逾3%，原因是人们对法国债务负担加重和冬季能源紧张的担忧。
Moves in the Asia morning were slight, leaving the dollar down 0.2% this week at 158.13 yen and shedding about 0.1% to $1.1210 per euro . The reversal has come not a moment too soon for the common currency, which over the previous five weeks had dropped more than 3% on the dollar on jitters about France's growing debt pile and a winter energy squeeze.
鉴于市场持有大量美元多头头寸，更多AI动荡可能会平仓并进一步推动美元下跌。
With the market positioned long in dollars, more AI wobbles could unwind that and push the dollar down further.
“美元对AI资本支出热潮进行严重重新定价的反应功能，应该明确是看跌美元，”Spectra Markets总裁布伦特·唐纳利说。
"The reaction function of the dollar to a serious repricing of the AI capex boom should be unambiguously dollar bearish," said Spectra Markets president Brent Donnelly.
“如果市场在定价AI资本支出见顶的概率上升，那么美元就是卖出。整个美国经济就像一条腿的凳子，平衡在AI交易上。”衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率的美元指数报102.07，本周将下跌0.14%。
"If the market is pricing rising odds of peak AI capex, the USD is a sell. The entire US economy is a one-legged stool balanced on the AI trade." The dollar index , which measures the US currency against six major peers, was at 102.07, set for a 0.14% drop in the week.
英镑报1.3270美元，持平，本周上涨0.3%，受数据显示英国经济8月意外增长0.1%的提振。新西兰元报0.5621美元，本周可能微涨0.1%。
Sterling was steady at $1.3270 for a weekly rise of 0.3%, helped by data showing Britain's economy unexpectedly grew 0.1% in August. The New Zealand dollar looked likely to scratch out a weekly gain of 0.1% at $0.5621.
澳大利亚元汇率维持在0.6921美元的水平，但本周其走势显得异常——预计将下跌0.8%。周四发布的就业数据令人意外地疲软，这使得市场下调了对美联储再次加息的预期。
The Australian dollar was flat at $0.6921 and an outlier in heading for a fall of 0.8% on the dollar this week, after a surprisingly soft jobs report on Thursday had markets paring back expectations for another rise in interest rates.
美联储主席凯文·沃什将于周五格林尼治标准时间03:30（美国东部时间周四晚上11:30）在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织年会上发表讲话。这是距离美联储做出决策不到两周前的最后机会，沃什的讲话将直接影响市场的预期。
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks in Bangkok on Friday at 0330 GMT (11:30 p.m. ET Thursday) at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting, a final chance to shape market expectations for the Fed's decision in less than two weeks.
“鉴于沃什对‘前瞻性指引’（即对未来利率走势的预测）持谨慎态度，他可能会暗示自己更倾向于在10月份加息，”澳大利亚联邦银行的货币策略师卡罗尔·孔表示。“沃什的任何表态都可能对当前美元汇率以及10月份的利率走势产生重大影响。”根据CME的FedWatch工具显示，交易者目前预计美联储本月晚些时候维持现有利率的概率为72%，而一个月前这一概率仅为53%。
"Given Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance, he might subtly signal his preference for the October rate outcome," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Any hints from Warsh can influence the October Fed pricing and the USD sharply today." Traders are pricing in a 72% chance of the Fed standing pat later this month, up from 53% a month earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
本周发布的CPI（消费者价格指数）数据高于预期，使得美联储加息的可能性大幅上升；不过在美联储官员表示会在会议前等待更多明确信号后，市场对此的预期有所缓和。
The expected likelihood of a hike rose sharply after a hotter-than-expected CPI report this week, but bets eased after Fed officials said the central bank could wait for more clarity before the meeting.