纽约/伦敦，10月15日：周四，美元从18个月来的高点回落。投资者们暂时忽略了美国强劲的通胀数据和消费数据，转而关注人工智能（AI）数据中心相关企业的股价波动。
NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 15 : The dollar retreated from an 18-month peak on Thursday as investors looked past strong US inflation and spending data to focus on a shakeout in the securities of AI data center firms.
9月份，美国生产者价格涨幅达到了4年半以来的最高水平，商品和服务成本的上升进一步表明通胀压力正在从能源行业扩散到其他领域。
US producer prices rose by the most in 4-1/2 years in September as goods and services costs increased, adding to evidence that inflation pressures are spreading beyond energy.
上个月，零售销售额的增长幅度超出预期，这主要得益于汽油价格的上涨；同时，每周的失业申请人数略有增加，显示出消费者需求的韧性以及劳动力市场的稳定。
Retail sales rose more than expected last month, lifted by higher gasoline prices, while weekly jobless claims marginally increased, pointing to resilient consumer demand and a stable labor market.
然而，政府债券价格却出现上涨，美元也随之回落。这反映了美联储官员的谨慎表态——这些表态降低了市场对美联储在10月加息的预期。
But government bonds rallied and the dollar pulled back, reflecting cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials that further cooled expectations for an October interest-rate hike.
“生产者价格的快速上涨加剧了人们对通胀的担忧，但我们认为，美联储可能采取的紧缩措施已经在市场中得到了充分反映，因此美国国债收益率和美元的进一步上涨空间有限，”伦敦LMAX集团的市场策略师乔尔·克鲁格（Joel Kruger）表示。
"The hotter (producer prices) print reinforces the inflation concerns raised by CPI, but our view remains that much of the associated Fed hawkishness is already priced in, leaving limited room for further upside in US yields and the dollar," said Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group in London.
AI企业的债务负担：衡量美元相对于一篮子其他货币表现的美元指数下跌了0.44%，降至102.00点。此前，在美国通胀数据超出预期后，该指数曾创下18个月来的新高。
AI COMPANIES' DEBT BURDENS The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of peers, fell 0.44 per cent to 102.00, having hit an 18-month high on Wednesday after US inflation figures came in stronger than expected.
受此影响，欧元从18个月来的低点反弹了0.48%，升至1.1210美元，有望实现近两个月来的最大单日涨幅。英镑也上涨了0.45%，升至1.3251美元，因为数据显示英国经济在8月份意外增长了0.1%。
That helped the euro bounce 0.48 per cent from an 18-month trough to $1.1210, putting it on track for its biggest daily gain in nearly two months. Sterling strengthened 0.45 per cent to $1.3251 after data showed Britain's economy unexpectedly grew 0.1 per cent in August.
周三美国通胀数据出炉后，市场波动加剧：一方面，数据增强了人们对美联储会长期维持高利率的预期；另一方面，人们对AI企业沉重债务负担的担忧再次加剧，导致资金流入国债市场（即投资者将资金投向被视为“避险资产”的国债）。
Markets grew choppy after Wednesday's hot US CPI reading initially bolstered bets on higher-for-longer Fed rates, while renewed concerns over AI companies' heavy debt burdens fuelled safe-haven flows into Treasuries.
“芯片股票的抛售为债券市场提供了支撑，帮助抑制了收益率的进一步上升，”Mesirow Currency Management公司的资深投资策略师Uto Shinohara表示。
"The selloff in chip stocks offers support to bonds, helping keep yields in check despite the inflationary signals," said Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management.
根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的联邦基金利率观察工具显示，目前交易员们预计美联储在10月27日至28日的会议上维持利率不变的概率已升至72%，而一个月前这一概率仅为53%。
Traders now see a 72 per cent chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October 27-28 meeting, compared with 53 per cent a month ago, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed.
在CPI数据公布后，市场预计美联储加息的可能性大幅上升，但随着包括美联储监管事务副主席米歇尔·鲍曼以及旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在内的多位官员表示，央行可能会在会议前等待更多经济信号以作决策参考，这种加息预期有所降温。
The likelihood seen of a hike rose sharply after the CPI report, but bets eased after Fed officials including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank could wait for more clarity before the meeting.
“近期外汇市场暂时脱离了自9月中旬以来的美元涨势，当时市场普遍相信美联储会通过加息来抑制通胀，”位于华盛顿的Monex USA交易总监胡安·佩雷斯说道，“倘若这些政策手段未能奏效，市场恐怕将面临‘滞胀’难以缓解的担忧。”投资者还将密切关注美联储主席凯文·沃什等官员于本周五在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织与世界银行年会上发表的讲话，以寻找美联储后续政策走向的线索。
"FX markets are currently taking a break from the USD rally that began in mid-September, boosted by faith that the Federal Reserve was willing to hike interest rates to fight inflation," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. "If those tools are not working, then the worry is about stubborn 'stagflation'." Investors will also watch remarks from Fed officials including Chair Kevin Warsh at IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday for clues on the US central bank's next move.
受9月份澳大利亚就业数据意外下滑影响，澳元兑美元汇率下跌0.88%，至0.6911美元；与此同时，日元兑美元汇率则上涨0.32%，达到157.82日元/美元。
The Australian dollar weakened 0.88 per cent to $0.6911, after local employment unexpectedly slid in September, while the Japanese yen strengthened 0.32 per cent to 157.82 per dollar.