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不要放弃刚果民主共和国的和平Don't Give Up on Peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo

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实际上并未带来和平。Not actually delivering peace.

12月,在特朗普总统的斡旋下,刚果民主共和国和卢旺达总统达成的和平协议注定要失败。冲突的主要交战方——控制刚果民主共和国东部富矿地区的3月23日运动(M23)武装组织——并未签署该协议。而且形势不佳:特朗普误读了卢旺达总统保罗·卡加梅和刚果民主共和国总统费利克斯·齐塞克迪的名字,两人避免眼神接触,拒绝握手。

The peace deal agreed in December by the presidents of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, brokered by a beaming President Donald Trump, was doomed to fail. The main belligerent in the conflict, the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group that controls the mineral-rich eastern DRC, wasn’t a signatory. And the optics were inauspicious: Trump mispronounced the names of Rwanda’s Paul Kagame and the DRC’s Felix Tshisekedi, and the pair avoided eye contact and wouldn’t shake hands.

这是一起典型的“空降外交”:作为强大外部势力的美国,在未理解当地动态的情况下就强行施加方案,特朗普称其为“一个伟大的奇迹”。几天之后,刚果民主共和国东部地区战火重燃,M23在闪电战中夺取了地区枢纽戈马和布卡武之后,又控制了第三座城市。公平地说,特朗普政府并非唯一一个试图通过获取刚果民主共和国的钽铌矿、钽和其他关键矿产而未能遏制冲突的政府;卡塔尔曾在11月监督过类似的框架,旨在让M23与刚果民主共和国政府达成协议。

It was a classic case of parachute diplomacy: A powerful outsider, the US, didn’t understand the local dynamics before imposing a solution that Trump claimed was “a great miracle.”Within days, fighting raged in the eastern DRC, with M23 taking control of a third city after a blitzkrieg that had seen regional hubs Goma and Bukavu fall under its control. To be fair, the Trump administration isn’t alone in failing to arrest the conflict in an effort to access the DRC’s coltan, tantalum, and other critical minerals; Qatar oversaw a similar framework between M23 and the DRC government in November.

然而,在这两项倡议均付诸东流之后,前刚果民主共和国总统约瑟夫·卡比拉——他曾在2001年至2019年领导该国——本周早些时候宣布,他正在组建一个新的武装组织,该组织将吸纳猖獗的M23及其政治盟友“刚果河联盟”。卡比拉去年因被控叛国罪而在军事法庭缺席审判中被判处死刑,他宣布将M23领导人苏尔塔尼·马肯加任命为“民族复兴阵线”(FRN)的四名副手之一,并表示他希望“以任何手段,包括武力,终结暴政。”这实际上是一场宣战的宣言。

Both initiatives lie in tatters after former DRC President Joseph Kabila, who ran the country from 2001 to 2019, said earlier this week he was starting a new rebel group that will fold in the rampant M23 and its political wing, the Alliance Fleuve Congo. Kabila, who was sentenced to death by a military court in absentia last year after being convicted of treason, announced M23 leader Sultani Makenga as one of his four deputies in the Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN), saying he wants to “put an end to tyranny by any means, including force.”It’s effectively a declaration of war.

刚果(金)的局势十分脆弱。齐塞克迪政府在首都金沙萨之外力量薄弱。最近修改宪法以允许齐塞克迪连任第三届的尝试引发了抗议,进一步削弱了他的政治权威和合法性。埃博拉疫情正在肆虐该国,确诊病例超过9000例,死亡人数超过4300人。

The DRC’s situation is fragile. Tshisekedi’s government is weak outside of the capital Kinshasa. Recent attempts to amend the constitution to allow Tshisekedi to serve a third term have triggered protests, further eroding his political authority and legitimacy. An Ebola crisis, with confirmed cases at more than 9,000 and deaths exceeding 4,300, is roiling the country.

尽管刚果(金)和平的前景黯淡,但这绝不是放弃这个美丽且资源丰饶国家的借口。所有相关方必须放弃这种幻想:认为只需把少数几方请到酒店里,签署几份文件就能实现持久和平。出于急于开发该国资源而推动的短期举措不会奏效。取得进展需要耐心调解、广泛参与和长期投入;该地区运作的100多个武装团体和地区联盟中,尽可能多的群体都需要参与其中。像排除M23这样基本的错误——其兵力如今已从六年前的3000人激增至30000人——将毁掉任何协议。

While the outlook for peace in the DRC is bleak, that’s no excuse to give up on this beautiful and abundantly endowed country. The many groups involved must abandon the charade that a lasting settlement can be achieved by bringing a handful of participants to a hotel andg a few papers. Short-term initiatives driven by a rush to exploit the country’s resources won’t work. Progress will require patient mediation, broad participation and long-term engagement; as many as possible of the more than 100 armed groups and regional coalitions operating in the region need to be involved. A mistake as basic as excluding M23 — whose troop numbers have swelled to 30,000 today from just 3,000 six years ago — will wreck any agreement.

多边、包容性的进程过去曾取得成功。1998年至2003年间,已故南非总统纳尔逊·曼德拉、他的继任者塔博·姆贝基以及已故博茨瓦纳领导人凯图米勒·马西雷与地区政府、武装团体、民间组织等共同努力,解决了刚果(金)-卢旺达-大湖地区危机。2003年4月,超过350个团体参与的45天会议签署了具有历史意义的《桑城协议》,从而平息了这场冲突。

Multilateral, inclusive processes have succeeded before. Between 1998 and 2003, the late South African President Nelson Mandela, his successor Thabo Mbeki and the late Botswana leader Ketumile Masire worked with regional governments, armed groups, civil organizations and others to resolve the DRC-Rwanda-Great Lakes crisis. In April 2003, a 45-day meeting of more than 350 groups signed the historic Sun City Agreement that resolved the conflagration.

随后在2006年成立了权力分享的过渡政府并举行了选举。正如人们后来所称的“内哥利对话”,它为在刚果(金)构建一个稳固的和平进程提供了范例。

A power-sharing interim government and elections in 2006 followed. That Inter-Congolese Dialogue, as it came to be known, provides a template for constructing a robust peace process in the DRC.

其他地区也提供了类似的教训,说明耐心和包容性的好处。美国参议员乔治·米切尔在1998年《贝尔法斯特协议》签署之前,与北爱尔兰的所有交战方合作了四年;哥伦比亚和平进程也用了四年时间进行谈判,最终结束了长达50年的冲突。

Other regions offer similar lessons in the benefits of patience and inclusiveness. US Senator George Mitchell worked with all of the antagonists in Northern Ireland for four years before the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998; the Colombian Peace Process, ending 50 years of conflict, also took four years to negotiate.

卡比拉决定与叛军结盟,看似对和平努力是一个巨大的挫折。然而,如今在他的领导下,M23正获得政治影响力和合法性 — — 而不是被简单地视为卢旺达的代理人 — — 这为将新统一的FRN集团拉到谈判桌旁提供了机会,使其能够与齐塞克迪的刚果(金)政府和卡加梅的卢旺达政府一起参与谈判。

Kabila’s decision to align with the rebels looks like a huge setback for peace efforts. However, with M23 now achieving political heft and legitimacy under his leadership — rather than being dismissed as a mere proxy of Rwanda — it offers a chance to draw the new unified FRN grouping to the negotiating table along with Tshisekedi’s DRC government and Kagame’s Rwandan administration.

其他感兴趣的方,包括非洲联盟、东非共同体和南部非洲发展共同体等地区组织,以及刚果(金)内部数十个议会和准军事团体,都可以被纳入进程。但让冲突中的三方主要参与者都参与进来,对于任何希望达成坚固和平协议的努力来说至关重要。

Other interested parties, including regional bodies such as the African Union, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community, as well as the tens of internal DRC parliamentary and paramilitary groupings, can be included. But getting all three of the main players involved in the conflict on board is crucial to any hopes of securing a robust peace accord.