
面对俄罗斯的导弹和无人机袭击,乌克兰需要的不仅仅是武器来保护自己。卫星能够提供关键的早期预警,告知何时发射了弹道物体,以及如何拦截它。
In the face of Russian missile and drone attacks, Ukraine needs more than weapons to protect itself. Satellites provide a crucial early warning that a projectile has been launched, as well as information on how to intercept it.
欧洲正在大力投资,以扩大向乌克兰提供此类情报的能力,但它仍然缺少只有美国能够提供的一些基于太空的系统。
Europe is investing heavily to expand its ability to offer Ukraine this type of intelligence, but it still lacks some of the space-based systems that only the US can provide.
基于美国技术和支持的依赖在10月中旬再次凸显为乌克兰的脆弱点,当时总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示,在对乌克兰发动致命袭击之前,盟国并未像往常一样提前警告弹道导弹发射。就在同一时期,有报道称,美国政府控制的SpaceX卫星终端出现了突然的限制,而这些终端是乌克兰军事通信的重要组成部分。
Kyiv’s reliance on American technology and support reemerged as a vulnerability in mid-October, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine had not received the usual warning from allies of ballistic missile launches before a deadly attack on the country. Around the same time, sudden restrictions were reported on US government-controlled SpaceX satellite terminals that are an important part of Ukraine’s military communications.
乌克兰盟国运营的军事卫星数据可以显示俄罗斯导弹及其他空中武器的储存位置和常见发射地点。乌克兰军方可以利用这些信息打击这些设施。美国及包括法国、意大利和英国在内的几个欧洲国家,正在向基辅政府共享其卫星情报。
Data from military satellites operated by Ukraine’s allies can show where Russian missiles and other airborne weapons are stored and commonly launched from. The Ukrainian military can use that information to strike at those facilities. The US and several European nations, including France, Italy and the UK, share their satellite intelligence with the Kyiv government.
然而,只有美国能够提供近乎持续的基于太空的欧洲成像。其众多且性能强大的间谍卫星能够提供更高质量的图像,包括视频。
However, only the US can offer near-constant space-based imaging of Europe. Its numerous and powerful spy satellites can provide higher-quality images, including video.
在名为基于空间的红外系统(Space Based Infrared System,SBIRS)的项目中,美国也拥有位于地球同步轨道上的卫星,这些卫星始终位于地球上方的同一位置。这些卫星是美国在地球任何地方进行导弹预警的核心,欧洲并没有等效系统。这些卫星能够实时追踪巡航导弹和其他低空飞行武器,这些武器可能在地面雷达探测到之前就已接近,以至于来不及拦截。这对依赖无人机、航空机炮和其他低技术手段来摧毁大规模生产的弹药密集群的军队(如乌克兰)尤为重要。
In a program called the Space Based Infrared System, or SBIRS, the US also has satellites in geosynchronous orbit, which keeps them over one spot on earth. These are the backbone of US early warning for missiles anywhere on Earth, and there is no equivalent in Europe. These satellites allow for real-time tracking of cruise missiles and other low-flying weapons that might escape detection by ground radar until it’s too late to stop them. This is especially helpful for a military, such as Ukraine’s, that relies on drones, aircraft cannons and other low-tech methods of destroying swarms of mass-produced projectiles.
更重要的是,SBIRS还能探测弹道导弹发射时的尾焰。这些导弹飞行速度更快、高度更高,比其他空中武器更难应对。知道弹道导弹何时发射、其速度和方向,对乌克兰的防空预警系统至关重要。(哪怕只提前一两分钟发出警报,也能为平民争取掩护时间,从而挽救生命。)这一能力还能提高乌克兰武装部队拦截和摧毁来袭武器的机会。
Crucially, SBIRS can also detect the launch plumes of ballistic missiles. These missiles travel much faster and higher than other airborne weapons, making them harder to deal with. Knowing when a ballistic missile is fired, its speed and direction is vital for Ukraine’s air-raid warning systems. (An alert — even one that comes a minute or two ahead of the impact — can save lives by giving civilians time to take cover). That capability also gives Ukraine’s armed forces a greater chance of intercepting and destroying the inbound weapons.
在更远距离击毁导弹可能更困难。但远距离失误仍能为第二次射击争取时间。如果来袭导弹仅在最后一刻才被发现,近距离失误将彻底毁掉最后一次阻止潜在毁灭性袭击的机会。
It can be harder to knock out a missile at longer range. But a miss at long range still allows time for another shot. If an incoming missile is only noticed at the last minute, a miss at close range blows the final chance to foil a potentially devastating attack.
SBIRS还使乌克兰军方能够使用Starshield系统——这是一种依赖SpaceX低地球轨道卫星网络Starlink的军事通信系统。Starshield是美国政府承包的服务,与SpaceX的商业Starlink宽带系统不同。因此,乌克兰对Starshield的使用最终取决于特朗普政府的善意。
It allows Ukraine’s military to use Starshield, a military communications system that relies on Starlink, SpaceX’s low-earth orbit satellite network. Starshield is a US government-contracted service that’s distinct from SpaceX’s commercial Starlink broadband system. So Ukraine’s access to Starshield is ultimately contingent on the goodwill of the Donald Trump administration.
星盾终端允许乌克兰拦截无人机和中程打击无人机的飞行员控制这些机器。前线地面部队使用星盾终端协调前线的补给和行动。星盾还支持实时战术情报收集和通信,并且在战争初期地面通信被俄军打击严重破坏后,星盾已成为乌克兰武装力量更广泛指挥基础设施的支撑。
Starshield terminals allow pilots of Ukrainian interceptor drones and mid-range strike drones to control the machines. And frontline ground forces use Starshield terminals to coordinate supplies and movements along the front line. Starshield also supports real-time tactical intelligence gathering and communications, and has come to underpin the Ukrainian armed forces’ broader command infrastructure after terrestrial communications were badly damaged by Russian strikes early in the war.
根据一位知情人士的说法,SpaceX 在 10 月 14 日未事先告知乌克兰国防部门的情况下,限制了星盾终端在运动中的操作。该限制立即干扰了无人机拦截和中程打击,并阻碍了前线的后勤和侦察。泽连斯基指责特朗普总统和马斯克故意限制服务。马斯克在其社交媒体平台 X 上写道,对星盾速度或使用的任何限制“由美国军方决定,最终由总统决定”。一位美国高级官员表示,特朗普并未下达任何限制令。
SpaceX restricted the operation of Starshield terminals while in motion on Oct. 14 without telling Ukraine’s defense forces beforehand, according to a person familiar with the matter. The restriction immediately disrupted drone interceptions and mid-range strikes and hampered frontline logistics and reconnaissance. Zelenskyy accused both President Trump and Musk of intentionally throttling the service. Musk wrote on X, his social media network, that any limits on Starshield speed or usage “are decided by the US military and ultimately” the president. A senior US official said Trump didn’t order any limitations.
欧洲的军队拥有多种地球观测卫星,这些卫星帮助乌克兰部队定位俄军部队、坦克、炮兵和军事设施,并识别弹药库、机场和导弹发射设施。
Europe’s militaries have a variety of earth-observation satellites that help Ukrainian forces locate Russian troops, tanks, artillery and military installations and identify ammunition depots, airfields and missile-launch facilities.
芬兰的 ICEYE 合成孔径雷达卫星可以在夜间运作,能够穿透云层、烟雾和霾。法国卫星传感器能够检测热辐射并识别普通相机容易忽略的人类活动。
Finland’s ICEYE synthetic-aperture radar satellites can operate at night and see through cloud cover, smoke and haze. French satellite sensors detect thermal radiation and identify human activity that conventional cameras can easily miss.
德国已向美国的 Planet Labs 等商业卫星公司付费,为乌克兰获取高分辨率影像,包括俄罗斯领土内部的影像。这些数据可用于目标定位和长期监测俄军动向——这可能是关键情报,有助于挫败企图发动的袭击。
Germany has paid commercial satellite companies such as US-based Planet Labs for high-resolution imagery for Ukraine, including inside Russian territory. This can provide data for targeting and spotting Russian military movement over time — potentially crucial intelligence that could thwart an attempted attack.
欧洲正面临巨大压力,必须停止依赖美国进行国防,而该地区的军事预算正在重新增长,这是自冷战以来首次出现这种情况。新增支出的一部分正流向“战略推动者”——即通信及其他系统,尽管它们本身不是武器,但对战争具有非比寻常的影响。欧洲各国正在竞相将更多卫星送入轨道,并让更多监视飞机升空。
Europe is under heavy pressure to stop relying on the US for its defense, and military budgets in the region are growing again for the first time since the Cold War. A chunk of that new spending is going toward “strategic enablers” — communications and other systems that have an outsized impact on warfare despite not being weapons. European nations are racing to put more satellites in orbit and get more surveillance aircraft in the air.
ICEYE最近与诺基亚签署协议,共同开发用于欧洲国防和安全的安全通信星座。空客SE数十年来一直在制造卫星,而德国国防巨头莱茵金属AG也已进入这一领域,包括通过与ICEYE的合作伙伴关系。欧盟已开始发射近350颗Iris2安全通信卫星中的第一批。
ICEYE recently signed a deal with Nokia to develop a secure communications constellation for European defense and security. Airbus SE has for decades built satellites, and German defense giant Rheinmetall AG has also gotten into the game, including through a partnership with ICEYE. The European Union has begun launching the first of nearly 350 Iris2 secure communications satellites.
然而,推进速度受到限制,因为该地区缺乏足够具备将重型军事卫星送入轨道能力的火箭。欧洲唯一的自主重型火箭助推器是阿丽亚娜6号,该火箭每年大约从南美洲北部法属圭亚那库鲁发射场发射约10次。此外,欧洲各国政府希望避免使用马斯克的SpaceX,而是更倾向于寻找自身进入轨道的途径。
The pace of the rollout is limited, however, as the region does not have enough rockets with the power to launch heavy military satellites into orbit. Europe’s only sovereign heavy rocket booster is Ariane 6, which launches about 10 times a year from Kourou in French Guyana on the northern coast of South America. And European governments want to avoid using Musk’s SpaceX as they prefer to find their own way into orbit.
这将是一个挑战。美国军队定期发射新卫星。其太空部队计划在2026年进行十几次以上的发射。这使得美国在卫星数量上占据优势,超过任何其他国家。美国目前在轨道上拥有近250颗军事卫星,而中国约为150颗,俄罗斯约为100颗。还有许多卫星被认为是双用途的。欧洲整体约有50颗卫星。
That would be a challenge. The US military launches new satellites regularly. Its Space Force plans more than a dozen flights in 2026. That gives the US a numbers advantage over any other country. The US has nearly 250 military satellites in orbit, compared with about 150 for China and about 100 for Russia. Many more are considered dual-use. Europe as a whole has about 50.
除了成像能力外,美国卫星还能拦截通信和其他传输——即所谓的“信号情报”,这也可用于战场。
Besides imagery, US satellites can intercept communications and other transmissions — so-called “signals intelligence” that can also be used on the battlefield.
美国太空部队还在9月宣布,其已将一套作战武器系统送入轨道运行,尽管官员拒绝透露该系统的具体类型。
The US Space Force also announced in September that it had placed an operational weapon in orbit, although officials declined to say what sort of system it was.