China has stockpiled enough natural gas to meet winter demand, according to analysts, as importers acted early to build supplies in anticipation of price spikes from the Iran war.

The country’s underground gas storage was 80% full at the end of September, Xiong Wei, analyst at Rystad Energy AS, said on the sidelines of an industry forum in Beijing. Still, a recent drop in liquefied natural gas inventories at import terminals could create some 2 million tons of restocking demand if suppliers aim to refill tanks to capacity, she added.

China’s appetite for winter restocking is watched closely by the market, particularly as the country doesn’t publish official data on its stockpiles. The relatively high level of underground storage shows that large, state-owned gas providers – tasked by Beijing with prioritizing supply security – are close to hitting their injection targets.

Milder temperatures brought by the El Niño weather pattern may soften Chinese gas demand in the coming months, although a thin inventory buffer in Europe has stoked concerns over competition for LNG. Cost-sensitive industrial buyers have largely shunned spot cargoes as Asian spot prices hover near the highest in almost four years.

Weaker winter demand could last into next year if the Middle East crisis keeps oil above $100 per barrel, according to OilChem, a Chinese commodities consultancy. It could fall around 4% from year-earlier levels to about 190 billion cubic meters, Nicole Li, an analyst at the consultancy, told the forum.

Subdued consumption, combined with a price premium in overseas markets, could encourage Chinese buyers to resell contracted LNG cargoes abroad in the coming years, she added, potentially easing competition with Europe.

“China has secured ample gas resources through 2030, which puts it in a more flexible position to offer liquidity to rest of the world,” Zhou Shuhui, chief expert with the China Petroleum Planning and Engineering Institute, told the same event on Thursday.