奥斯陆，10月12日——即使伊朗战争得以解决，冬季气候温和，欧洲家庭和企业仍将面临至少一年的天然气高价，因为整个欧洲大陆需要重新补充已降至历史低位的天然气储备。
OSLO, Oct 12 - European households and industries face at least another year of high gas prices, even if the Iran war is resolved and winter proves mild, as the continent will need to restock gas storage reserves depleted to record lows.
今年，欧洲基准天然气价格已飙升超过150%，原因是霍尔木兹海峡的航运中断导致卡塔尔和阿拉伯联合酋长国近20%的液化天然气出口被截留，而这些出口货物大多原本运往亚洲。
European benchmark gas prices have jumped more than 150% this year as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz trapped almost 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, most of which are destined for Asia.
尽管美国、加拿大和尼日利亚等国增加了出口，但中东液化天然气的缺失加剧了现货货船的争夺，这些货船原本可供欧洲使用，也阻碍了夏季期间重新填充储备的努力。
While some countries, including the US, Canada and Nigeria, have increased exports, the loss of Middle Eastern LNG has intensified competition for spot cargoes that would otherwise have been available to Europe and hampered efforts to refill storage over the summer.
分析师和行业预测机构预计，到11月1日，欧洲天然气储备的填充率将达到75%至78%。这一天通常被视为补货季的结束，此后冬季需求将越来越依赖储备。
Analysts and industry forecasters expect European gas storage to be 75-78% full by November 1, widely regarded as the end of the restocking season after which dependence on reserves to meet winter demand grows.
这一水平比五年平均水平低约10个百分点，且初始储备基数也较低。
This is about 10 percentage points below the five-year average and starting from a lower base.
LSEG分析师尤里·奥尼什基夫表示，即使冬季天气温和，西北欧洲的天然气储备到4月初也可能降至约20%；如果霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，这可能会加剧2027年重新补货的压力。
Even with average winter weather, northwest European reserves could fall to around 20% by the start of April, and combined with a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this could increase pressure to restock in 2027, said LSEG analyst Yuriy Onyshkiv.
他说：“不仅是即将到来的冬季会出现供应紧张，我们甚至可能面临下一个夏季的供应短缺风险。”
"It's not just this coming winter that we are tight, but we risk being tight the next summer," he said.
进一步价格飙升的风险 荷兰国际集团（ABN Amro）高级能源经济学家穆塔兹·阿尔塔格利比表示，尽管该地区并未面临彻底的供应短缺，但缺乏足够的运营缓冲能力。
RISK OF FURTHER SHARP PRICE SPIKES Moutaz Altaghlibi, senior energy economist at ABN Amro, said that while the region is not facing an outright supply shortage, it lacks a sufficient operational buffer.
通常情况下，天然气储备可满足欧盟冬季天然气消耗量的25%至30%，这意味着欧盟仍严重依赖管道输送和液化天然气，尤其是来自挪威和美国的供应。
Typically, storage provides 25-30% of winter gas consumed in the EU, leaving the bloc heavily dependent on pipeline supplies and LNG, particularly from Norway and the US.
阿尔塔格利比指出，任何供应中断都可能导致价格进一步飙升，而亚洲地区对液化天然气货船的持续竞争，也可能会使价格保持在高位。
Any supply disruption could drive further price spikes, while ongoing competition from Asia for LNG cargoes is likely to keep prices high, Altaghlibi said.
荷兰银行（ABN Amro）表示，寒冷的冬季可能将欧洲天然气储存量推低至 10% 至 15%，阿尔塔利比将这一水平形容为下一个注气季 “非常关键且充满挑战”。
ABN Amro said a cold winter could push European storage down to 10-15%, a level Altaghlibi described as "very critical and challenging" for the following refilling season.
背景让人联想到 2022 年的能源危机，当时俄罗斯因入侵乌克兰而切断管道天然气供应，导致欧洲基准价格飙升至每兆瓦时 350 欧元以上。
The backdrop is reminiscent of 2022's energy crisis, when the loss of Russian pipeline gas following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine sent European benchmark prices above €350 per megawatt-hour (MWh).
虽然大多数能源分析师不认为会重演此类极端行情，但价格飙升至每兆瓦时 100 欧元以上（较当前水平上涨 25%）是有可能的。
While most energy analysts do not see a return to such extremes, a spike above €100/MWh, up 25% from current levels, is feasible.
消费者痛点 由于零售合同通常固定一段时间后才续签，消费者可能要等到 2027 年才会充分感受到今年批发天然气价格上涨的全部影响。
CONSUMER PAIN Consumers are likely to feel the full effect of this year's wholesale gas price rally in 2027, as retail contracts are typically fixed for a period before being renewed.
在德国，价格比价网站 Verivox 表示，新客户的天然气费率今年已上涨 55%，从每千瓦时 8 欧分涨至 12.4 欧分。现有客户预计也将在合同到期时面临涨价。
In Germany, price comparison website Verivox said gas tariffs for new customers have already risen 55% this year, from 8 euro cents to 12.4 euro cents per kilowatt-hour. Existing customers are expected to see increases as contracts expire.
Verivox 发言人表示：“鉴于当前市场价格，10% 至 20% 的涨幅是现实的。”
"Given current market prices, increases of 10-20% are realistic," a Verivox spokesperson said.
咨询公司 Cornwall Insight 预测，英国家庭能源账单价格上限在 10 月升至三年高点后，明年 1 月可能再上调 16%。
Britain's price cap on household energy bills, which was hiked to a three-year high in October, could be raised another 16% in January, consultancy Cornwall Insight forecasts.
其首席顾问 Craig Lowrey 表示：“目前我们还看不到波动结束的迹象，而且天然气库存如此之低，（伊朗）冲突的影响可能还会持续数月。”
"At the moment, we can't yet see an end to the volatility, and with gas stocks as low as they are, the effects of the (Iran) conflict could be with us for many more months," its principal consultant Craig Lowrey said.
分析师称，产业和企业已难以保持竞争力，因为即使在最新的供应危机之前，欧盟天然气价格就已是美国的三倍。一些分析师认为，欧盟应采取更积极的应对措施。
Industry and businesses already struggle to stay competitive, analysts say, as even before the latest supply crises, EU gas prices were three times as high as in the US. Some analysts say the European Union should respond more proactively.
冲突伊始，欧盟曾提议降低电力税并协调天然气储存注气，但其能源事务负责人最近敦促成员国在供应危机面前削减天然气需求。
At the start of the conflict, the EU proposed lowering electricity taxes and coordinating gas storage refilling, but its energy chief recently urged member states to cut gas demand in the face of the supply crisis.
当俄罗斯天然气供应在2022年崩溃时，欧盟启动了一系列措施，其中包括一项旨在加速可再生能源部署、减少对化石燃料进口依赖的计划，能源经济与金融分析研究所的Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz如是说。
When Russian gas deliveries collapsed in 2022, the bloc launched measures including a programme which sought to speed up renewables deployment and cut dependency on fossil fuel imports, said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
她表示，当前危机正以缓慢的方式发展，并补充道：“我的担忧是，我们尚未充分认识到其规模。”缓慢解绑ICIS天然气和LNG分析主管Andreas Schroeder表示：“我们预计，美伊冲突将在冬季期间得到解决，虽然这有所帮助，但我们认为，市场尚未完全将欧洲储存的注入需求计入价格。”
The current crisis has been developing in slow motion, she said, adding: "My concern is that we have not yet realised the magnitude of it.”SLOW UNWIND "Our expectation is that the conflict between the US and Iran is going to be resolved over the course of winter, and while that helps, we believe the markets are not yet fully pricing in the injection demand for storage in Europe," said Andreas Schroeder, head of gas and LNG analytics at ICIS.
与此同时，欧盟自2027年1月起对俄罗斯LNG的全面禁令将进一步收紧供应。
Meanwhile, the EU's full ban on Russian LNG imports from January 2027 will further tighten supply.
荷兰合作银行能源战略师Florence Schmit表示，全球其他地区的LNG供应增长也可能被低估。荷兰合作银行已上调近期价格预测，但将2027年全年预测维持在约45欧元/兆瓦时不变。
Markets may also be underestimating LNG supply growth elsewhere in the world, energy strategist Florence Schmit at Rabobank said. Rabobank has raised near-term price forecasts but maintained its full-year 2027 forecast at about €45/MWh.
Schmit表示：“我认为我们对2027年和2028年的前景持相对温和的看法，但这仍比之前对当年水平的预测高出大约20欧元/兆瓦时。”
"I think we have a relatively moderate view going into 2027 and 2028, but that is still roughly 20 euros/MWh higher than where previous forecasts were for that year," Schmit said.
法国巴黎银行大宗商品分析师Jason Ying表示，今年异常强劲的厄尔尼诺天气现象也可能带来更强的风力和高于正常的欧洲冬季气温，从而提升风电发电量，进而可能抑制天然气需求和价格。
This year's unusually strong El Nino weather phenomenon could also bring stronger winds and above-normal winter temperatures in Europe, boosting wind power generation which could curb gas demand and prices, said BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying.
不过，鉴于今年LNG供应的中断，他补充道，天然气市场恢复正常需要时间。
Still, given the LNG disruptions this year, it will take time for the gas market to normalise, he added.
Ying表示：“我们预计，市场恢复到冲突前的水平要等到2028年才会实现。”
"We expect normalisation of the market to pre-conflict levels won't come until 2028," Ying said.