– 这是CNBC于2026年10月14日为中国中央电视台制作的财经新闻报道稿。
– This is the script of CNBC's financial news report for China's CCTV on October 14, 2026.
欧洲天然气期货尚未达到2022年能源危机期间创下的历史峰值，当时因俄乌冲突触发能源危机，价格曾短暂触及每兆瓦时300欧元。
European natural gas futures have not yet reached the record peaks seen during the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, when prices briefly touched 300 euros per megawatt-hour.
然而，与年初相比，天然气价格已上涨超过150%。此次反弹的主要驱动力是中东地缘政治紧张局势的持续升级。
However, compared with the start of the year, natural gas prices have surged more than 150%. The primary driver behind this current rally is the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
在美伊冲突之前，全球约五分之一的液化天然气供应经过霍尔木兹海峡。尽管自9月下旬以来，通过该海峡的液化天然气运输已部分恢复，但运输量仍仅为冲突前水平的约四分之一，未来供应前景仍存在不确定性。
Prior to the US-Iran conflict, roughly one fifth of global liquefied natural gas supplies transited the Strait of Hormuz. Although LNG shipments through the strait have partially recovered since late September, volumes remain at roughly one quarter of pre-conflict levels, with the future supply outlook remaining uncertain.
与此同时，欧洲天然气储存库存目前远低于此时期的历史均值。欧洲天然气基础设施协会（Gas Infrastructure Europe）的数据显示，当前储存水平约为73%，显著低于五年均值的89%。行业分析师认为，若需作历史比较，2021年——即欧洲之前能源危机爆发前夕——提供了最为接近的参照。
At the same time, European natural gas storage inventories sit well below historical norms for this time of year. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicates current storage levels stand at roughly 73%, significantly beneath the five-year average of 89%. Industry analysts suggest that, if a historical comparison must be made, 2021, on the eve of Europe's previous energy crisis, offers the closest parallel.
欧洲委员会于10月8日表示，尽管欧洲天然气储备仍低于历史均值，但通过供应来源多元化、进口能力扩张以及整体需求下降，欧洲天然气系统在基准情景下仍能满足冬季需求。然而，行业分析师警告，这并不意味着欧洲具备充足的应急缓冲。
The European Commission stated on October 8 that while European natural gas reserves remain below historical averages, diversification of supply sources, expanded import capacity, and reduced overall demand will allow the European gas system to satisfy winter demand under baseline scenarios. However, industry analysts warn that this does not mean Europe has adequate emergency buffers.
天然气储存设施通常仅能覆盖冬季消费量的25%至30%，其余部分高度依赖持续进口。若出现严寒天气或进口瓶颈，储存水平偏低不仅会削弱欧洲吸收供应冲击的能力，还可能推动天然气价格进一步上涨。卡罗尔·纳赫勒首席执行官Crystol Energy“您会发现，少数几个国家对液化天然气出口的集中度非常高。因此，即使是微小的中断，也会因这种集中度而对全球液化天然气贸易产生非常大的影响。”
Gas storage facilities typically cover only 25% to 30% of winter consumption, leaving the remainder heavily dependent on continuous imports. In the event of a severe winter or import bottlenecks, depressed storage levels not only narrow Europe's capacity to absorb supply shocks but also risk driving natural gas prices higher. CAROLE NAKHLEChief Executive OfficerCrystol Energy "You have a much bigger concentration of LNG exports in a small number of countries. So even a small disruption would have very big repercussions for global LNG trade because of this concentration."
由于许多零售能源合同在一定期限内锁定固定价格，批发天然气价格上涨不会立即影响所有家庭，尽管随着合同到期，明年将有更多消费者面临价格压力。
Because many retail energy contracts lock in fixed prices for set durations, rising wholesale gas prices will not immediately impact all households, though more consumers will face price pressures next year as contracts expire.
德国价格比较门户网站Verivox报道称，截至目前，面向新客户的天然气报价年内已上涨55%。此外，天然气价格飙升正迫使欧洲电力生产商重新评估发电经济性。能源研究公司ICIS的数据显示，自至少2024年以来，首次出现燃煤发电成本低于燃气发电的情况。分析师预测，欧洲燃煤发电量在未来六个月可能增加约四分之一，以抵消燃气发电量的下降。
German price comparison portal Verivox reports that natural gas offers for new customers have climbed 55% year to date. Moreover, surging gas prices are forcing European power producers to reevaluate generation economics. Data from energy research firm ICIS shows that for the first time since at least 2024, coal-fired power generation has become more cost-effective than gas-fired generation. Analysts project European coal-fired generation could expand by roughly one quarter over the next six months to offset declines in gas-fired output. SARA VAKHSHOURIFounder and PresidentSVB Energy International "Europe is not worried about supplies, but more about prices.
萨拉·瓦赫舒里创始人兼总裁SVB Energy International“欧洲并不担心供应问题，而是更关注价格。在这场战争迄今为止以及即将到来的冬季，欧洲的故事将围绕价格展开。修复基础设施并恢复到之前的生产水平并不容易，因为液化天然气基础设施非常复杂。这可能需要一年或两年的时间，并且肯定会对欧洲的天然气价格产生长期影响。”
The story for Europe in this war so far and for the winter is going to be prices. Repairing the infrastructure and returning to previous production levels is not that easy because of the complexity of LNG infrastructure. That might take a year or two, and would definitely have a longer-term impact on natural gas prices in Europe."