唐纳德·特朗普正前往共和党高层日益放弃的各州。特朗普预计将于周五前往佐治亚州，周二前往北卡罗来纳州。这两个州的顶级外部共和党团体已放缓或停止支出，以将资源转向堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等红州的关键选举。
Donald Trump is heading to states that top Republicans are increasingly writing off. Trump is expected in Georgia on Friday and North Carolina on Tuesday, two states where top outside GOP groups slowed or stopped spending to divert resources to key races in red states like Kansas and South Carolina.
然而，总统仍认为这些选举是可赢的，而特朗普的集会可以做一些金钱买不到的事情。总统可以提升投票率，引发地方媒体的广泛报道，并向那些一直忠于他的人展示他并未忘记他们——例如北卡罗来纳州参议院候选人迈克尔·惠特利——尽管形势严峻。
The president, however, still sees those races as winnable and a Trump rally can do a couple of things money can’t buy. The president can boost turnout, generate a storm of local media coverage and show those who’ve been loyal to him — North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley, for instance — that he hasn’t forgotten them, despite the long odds.
“他在这些州出现并举行集会，能够激发MAGA基础的共和党热情，促使他们出来投票。如果这些行动能够影响特定选举——无论是州长层面还是特定众议院席位——那将非常有用，”资深共和党策略师罗恩·博让说，他曾担任众议院和参议院共和党领袖的首席发言人。“特朗普对惠特利极其忠诚，你可以看到他前去探望并试图帮助他，这完全基于他们的关系……这是特朗普代表惠特利所投出的‘海尔玛丽’传球。”
“Having him show up and doing his rallies in these states generates Republican enthusiasm from the MAGA base to come out to vote. And if these are going to impact particular races, whether it's at the governor level or particular House seats, that could be quite useful,” said Ron Bonjean, a veteran Republican strategist who previously served as top spokesperson for House and Senate GOP leaders. “Trump is extremely loyal to Whatley, and you can see him visiting and trying to help him out, just based on their relationship … This is a Hail Mary pass that Trump's throwing on behalf of Whatley.”
白宫内部，特朗普的助手表示，他能够周复一周、场场不断地举行集会，这为他前往总统乐观程度与民意调查不匹配的州提供了时间。而且他们不仅仅在考虑参议院选举。
Inside the White House, Trump’s aides say his ability to power through rally after rally, week after week allows time to travel to states where the president’s optimism does not match the polling. And they aren’t just thinking about the Senate.
在佐治亚州和亚利桑那州保持州长席位——特朗普于周三在那里为共和党州长候选人、众议员安迪·比格斯举行集会——将在未来的重新划分选区斗争中至关重要，同时也关系到2028年大选结果的确认。
Holding governor’s seats in Georgia and Arizona — where Trump rallied on Wednesday for GOP gubernatorial candidate Rep. Andy Biggs — will be key in future redistricting battles, as well as certifying the results of the 2028 election.
而且，更重要的是，特朗普喜欢佐治亚州州长候选人里克·杰克逊和参议院候选人迈克·柯林斯 — — 他曾在该州激烈的共和党初选决选中背过的两人 — — 并且想帮助他们。共和党人认为佐治亚州的州长竞选日益可赢：杰克逊已向佐治亚州的州长竞选投入超过1亿美元的个人资金，在最近的民意调查中领先，尽管该州的政治操盘手预计竞选结果将非常接近。
And, importantly, Trump likes Georgia gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson and Senate candidate Mike Collins — who he endorsed in the state’s contentious GOP primary runoff — and wants to help them. Republicans see Georgia’s governor’s race as increasingly winnable: Jackson, who has poured more than $100 million of his own money into Georgia’s governor’s race, is leading in recent public polls, even as operatives in the state expect it to be close.
特朗普还对惠特利产生了一种忠诚感 — — 惠特利是前共和党全国委员会主席，也是他在此次竞选中亲自挑选的候选人。
Trump also feels a sense of allegiance to Whatley, the former RNC chair and his handpicked candidate in the race.
“总统100%仍然认为北卡罗来纳州还有机会。总统完全没有抛弃惠特利、让他陷入困境的意图，”一位获准匿名讨论总统思路的白宫高级官员说道。情况不仅仅局限于惠特利。
“The president 100% still sees North Carolina in play. The president has no intention whatsoever of leaving Whatley high and dry,” said a senior White House official granted anonymity to discuss the president’s thinking. It isn't only Whatley.
根据Real Clear Politics的数据，比格斯 — — 他曾支持特朗普推翻2020年大选结果的努力 — — 落后于现任州长凯蒂·霍布斯11个百分点。但特朗普对那些在他2020年大选失利后试图让他继续掌权的人有特殊好感，他称比格斯为“朋友”和“非常特别的人”。随着焦虑的共和党人越来越多地放弃参议院席位，总统的访问恰逢此时。在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州，即便是共和党的民意调查机构也显示民主党参议院候选人领先，且优势超出误差范围。
Biggs, who supported Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, is down 11 percentage points to incumbent Katie Hobbs, according to Real Clear Politics. But Trump, who has a special affinity for those who tried to keep him in power after he lost the 2020 election, called Biggs a “friend” and “somebody that’s very special.”The president’s trips come as anxious Republicans increasingly write off Senate seats. In Georgia and North Carolina, even Republican pollsters have the Democratic senate candidates up outside the margin of error.
参议院领导基金（Senate Leadership Fund）是共和党在参议院的顶级超级政治行动委员会，正在暂停在北卡罗来纳州的支出，同时加大在堪萨斯州的广告投入，并开始在南卡罗来纳州进行支出。在那里，特朗普背书的参议员达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham）在民调中仅略微领先于民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）。
The Senate Leadership Fund, which is the GOP’s top Senate super PAC, ispausing spending in North Carolina while stepping up advertising in Kansas and beginning to spend in South Carolina where Trump-endorsed Sen. Darline Graham is polling only slightly ahead of Democrat Annie Andrews.
这进一步表明惠特利（Whatley）在北卡罗来纳州面临麻烦：他的竞选团队目前在电视上没有投放广告，尽管他们表示将“很快重新上线”。民调还显示，在曾经是特朗普铁杆支持地区的阿拉斯加、爱荷华州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州，参议院竞争态势激烈，迫使共和党进入分诊模式——将资金从他们看来更难赢得的选举中转移出去，转向他们必须赢得以保持参议院多数的选举。
In a further sign of troubles for Whatley in North Carolina, his campaign is currently dark on TV, although they say they will be “back on the air shortly.”Polling also shows competitive Senate races in once-Trump strongholds such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, which has forced Republicans into triage mode, shifting money away from races they consider tougher to win to ones they absolutely must win to hold the Senate.
特朗普刚刚完成了阿拉斯加之行，并在选举日前将两次前往爱荷华州——分别在10月22日和11月1日。
Trump just made the trip to Alaska and he will travel to Iowa twice before Election Day — on Oct. 22 and Nov. 1.
但特朗普仍然是共和党最大的选民动员力量，这使他在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州等州成为独特资源。
But Trump remains the Republican Party’s biggest turnout driver, which makes him a unique resource in states like Georgia and North Carolina.
“特朗普总统正在全国范围内奔走，与共和党人一起竞选，激发选民热情，并宣传他的议程——减税、打击暴力犯罪，并让更多钱进入美国人民的口袋。民主党人陷入财政困境，内部分裂，并且被迫支持诸如‘星二代’乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff）和对犯罪态度软弱的罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）这样的有毒候选人，”共和全国委员会发言人埃玛·霍尔（Emma Hall）表示。
“President Trump is barnstorming the country to campaign with Republicans, energize voters, and tout his agenda that’s cutting taxes, slashing violent crime, and putting more money in Americans’ pockets. Democrats are broke, divided, and stuck supporting toxic candidates like nepo baby Jon Ossoff and soft-on-crime hack Roy Cooper,” said RNC spokesperson Emma Hall.
白宫发言人大卫·英格尔（David Ingle）补充说，特朗普是“共和党无可置疑的领袖、最佳信使和无与伦比的激励者，他致力于维持共和党在国会中的多数地位。”并非所有共和党人都认为特朗普是全然积极的因素。他们指出，特朗普既能提升也可能降低投票率，而一位支持率仅在30%左右的总统出现在当地可能会适得其反。
White House spokesperson David Ingle added that Trump is “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”Not all Republicans see Trump as an unalloyed positive. They note that Trump juices turnout both ways and that having a president with a mid-30’s approval rating show up in town could backfire.
如果你是迈克·柯林斯，你现在处境非常糟糕，任何能激发热情的事情都是积极的。他可能欢迎这一点，因为他已经被所有人看衰，而这至少能营造出一些势头的假象，”一位佐治亚州的共和党人士说。“我认为杰克逊竞选团队的人希望他当时在格鲁吉亚国家[周五]，而不是该州。”杰克逊竞选团队拒绝置评。
"If you're Mike Collins, you're down so bad that anything to generate some enthusiasm is positive. He probably welcomes it because he's been written off by everybody, and this will at least give the appearance of some momentum,” said one GOP operative in Georgia. "I think that the folks on the Jackson campaign wish he was in the country of Georgia [on Friday] instead of the state.”The Jackson campaign declined to comment.
不过，许多共和党人认为特朗普的出现将提升投票率，尤其是在农村地区，如果民主党的热情无法转化为选票，他的存在可能成为关键因素。
Still, many Republicans believe Trump's presence will boost turnout, especially in rural areas, and could be the difference if Democratic enthusiasm fails to translate into votes.
佐治亚州共和党主席乔什·麦克昆指出，早期投票数据显示，黑人和年轻选民的投票人数没有达到2022年共和党州长布赖恩·坎普以大约七个百分点获胜时的水平。如果民主党的投票率下降，他说，特朗普的访问可能会起到决定性作用。
Georgia GOP party chair Josh McKoon pointed to early voting data that indicated Black and younger voters aren't showing up in the same numbers they did in 2022 when GOP Gov. Brian Kemp won by roughly seven points. If turnout for Democrats erodes, he said, Trump’s visit could make all the difference.
“这就是为什么特朗普总统访问达尔顿很重要，”麦克昆说。“他可以激活并动员那些关键选民，以确保胜利 margin。”白宫也在努力合理安排总统的时间，确保他在一次竞选停留中覆盖多个竞选地区。
“That is why President Trump visiting Dalton matters,” McKoon said. “He can activate and turnout those voters key to running a margin.”The White House is also trying to steward the president’s time well by making sure he’s hitting multiple races with one campaign stop.
例如，他在北卡罗来纳州的集会不会在该州竞争激烈的第一国会选区举行——在那里，共和党人劳里·巴克豪特正试图击败民主党人唐·戴维斯，后者是共和党最看重的夺取机会之一——而是在附近的格林维尔的第三国会选区。白宫官员表示，该地点比在落基山举行另一次集会更为中心——就像他在圣诞节前不久所做的那样——这使得总统也能同时关注参议院竞选。
His North Carolina rally, for instance, won’t be in the state’s competitive 1st Congressional District — where Republican Laurie Buckhout is trying to unseat Democrat Don Davis, one of the GOP’s top pickup opportunities — but in the nearby 3rd District, in Greenville. White House officials say the location is more central than holding another rally in Rocky Mount, like he did right before Christmas, allowing the president to also target the Senate race.
“他在第一国会选区会吸引选民。认为他不会吸引选民的想法太疯狂了。那只是个农村选区。就像，那只是其中的关键所在，”白宫官员说，并将在格林维尔举行集会描述为“良好的政治策略”。许多负责中期选举的共和党策略师认为，至少去一次像佐治亚州这样的州对总统来说是值得的时间投入 — — 即使它带来的任何投票率提升最终可能很小 — — 相比于反复前往另一个红州。自十月初开始其密集中期选举之旅以来，总统只在德克萨斯州和俄亥俄州举办过两次集会。
“He's going to draw voters from the 1st Congressional District. That's crazy to think that he's not going to. It's just a rural district. Like, that's just the brass tax of it,” the White House official said, describing holding a rally in Greenville as “good political sense.”And plenty of Republican strategists working midterm races believe that going to a state like Georgia at least once is worth the president’s time — even if whatever turnout boost it provides is ultimately small — compared to going to another red state repeatedly. Texas and Ohio are the only two states the president has held rallies in twice since the beginning of his whirlwind midterm travels at the start of October.
“理想的情况是，你在州内他能发挥净正面影响的地区战略性地部署他，他在那里有助于提升基本盘投票率，但你又不会让人感到厌烦，”一位长期从事众议院和参议院选举的共和党内部人士说。“我们不希望他去堪萨斯州四次。”而前往佐治亚州对俄亥俄州的共和党人来说不会带来任何代价。
“The perfect situation is that you're deploying him strategically to areas of the state where he's a net positive, where he's helping to pump up base turnout, but you're not wearing out your welcome,” said one longtime GOP operative working on House and Senate races. “We don't want him to go to Kansas four times.”And a trip to Georgia isn't costing him anything with Republicans in Ohio.
“显然，俄亥俄州的形势很紧张，”总部位于俄亥俄州的共和党内部人士特里·凯西说。“但说到底，情况并不是说俄亥俄州被忽视了。”
“Clearly, Ohio's close,” said Terry Casey, an Ohio-based GOP operative. “But again, bottom line, it's not like Ohio's being neglected.”