下一任众议院共和党领袖竞选中，缺少一个关键因素：总统唐纳德·特朗普。
There’s a big factor missing from the next race to lead House Republicans: President Donald Trump.
面对明年可能沦为少数党的前景，以及特朗普本人即将进入其任期末期的“跛脚鸭”阶段，一些人认为，即便迈克·约翰逊参选连任最高民选领袖，总统的影响力也未必能让他如愿。
With House Republicans facing the prospect that they could be in the minority next year, and Trump himself entering the back end of his own lame-duck period, some believe the president’s influence won’t close the deal for Mike Johnson if he runs to remain the top elected leader.
“一点影响都没有，”一名获准匿名以便坦率发言的共和党议员在被问及特朗普的背书是否重要时，对《华盛顿太阳报》说。“尤其是如果我们输了，因为人们会怪罪他。”自2023年凯文·麦卡锡艰难竞选以来，特朗普的独特影响力就一直笼罩着领导层选举，当时总统的背书和个人电话帮助说服一些持不同意见者，不再阻挠麦卡锡的道路。
“Not one bit,” one GOP lawmaker, given anonymity to speak freely, told The Washington Sun when asked if Trump’s endorsement matters. “Especially if we have lost, because people will blame him.”Trump’s unique power has loomed over leadership races since Kevin McCarthy’s bruising bid in 2023, when the president’s endorsement and personal phone calls helped sway some holdouts from blocking McCarthy’s path.
10个月后麦卡锡被罢免后，特朗普在下一任议长选举中再次干预，他通过一条简单的真理社交帖子，将共和党党鞭汤姆·埃默称为“完全脱离群众”，从而挫败了埃默的机会。2024年，当迈克·约翰逊寻求连任议长时，总统施压一些不情愿的议员团结在约翰逊周围，帮助他在2025年拿下议长槌。
Trump intervened again during the next speaker’s race, after McCarthy was ousted 10 months later, when he thwarted Rep. Tom Emmer’s chances with a simple Truth Social post calling the Republican whip “totally out of touch.”And when Mike Johnson sought a full term as speaker in 2024, the president pressured some reluctant members to coalesce around Johnson to help him secure the gavel in 2025.
进入下一届国会之际，共和党议员对特朗普的影响力存在分歧，有人认为这次“远没有那么大”，也有人认为总统的意见仍会产生一定影响。
Heading into the next Congress, Republican lawmakers are split on Trump’s pull, with some saying it’s “not nearly as much” this round and others saying the president’s opinion would have some impact.
约翰逊已明确表示，无论共和党是否保住多数党地位，他都想领导党团。据两名白宫官员透露，他目前拥有总统的支持，总统仍对这位路易斯安那人情有独钟。但议员们表示，约翰逊的道路不会轻松。“他不会无人对手竞选，”一名资深共和党议员说。
Johnson has made it clear he wants to lead his conference, whether or not Republicans maintain the majority. He currently has the backing of the president, who still thinks fondly of the Louisianan, according to two White House officials. But the path for Johnson won’t be easy, members say. “He will not run unopposed,” one senior GOP member said.
被要求对议长的计划发表评论时，约翰逊的一名发言人将《太阳报》引向约翰逊最近的采访，约翰逊在采访中表示，他相信共和党将保住多数党地位，并且他将继续担任最高领袖。
Asked to comment on the speaker’s plan, a Johnson spokesperson referred The Sun to recent interviews with Johnson saying he believes Republicans will keep the majority and that he will remain the top leader.
但最近在接受福克斯新闻采访时，约翰逊表示，他不确定如果民主党翻转众议院控制权，他的下一章会是什么，他说“如果上帝感动我们的心”，他可能回到家乡什里夫波特开一家“草坪生意”。几天后，在接受CBS新闻采访时，他澄清自己的言论是“开玩笑”，并补充说，如果众议院共和党失去多数席位，“我预计我的同事会要求我继续带领党团在分裂政府中领导”。
But in an interview with Fox News recently, Johnson said he was unsure of what his next chapter would be if Democrats flip control of the House, saying that “if God moves on our hearts” he could go back to his hometown of Shreveport to start a “lawn business.”Days later, in an interview with CBS News, he clarified his comments were “tongue in cheek” and added, “I would expect my colleagues would call upon me to continue to lead the conference in a divided government” if House Republicans lost the majority.
有另外两位潜在候选人正在为明年领导共和党党团打基础。众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯在许多议员中很受欢迎，他们认为他平易近人、忠诚且是个精明的操盘手。还有众议院司法委员会主席吉姆·乔丹，过去一年他一直在奔走并为同事筹款，许多人认为这是在为竞逐最高职位积攒支持。
There are two other potential candidates laying the groundwork to lead the GOP conference next year. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is popular with many members, who view him as personable, loyal and a savvy operator. And then there’s House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, who has been traveling and raising money for colleagues over the past year in what many view as building support to run for the top post.
即使约翰逊有特朗普的支持，过去这也并不总是有效。2023年，在麦卡锡被罢免后，特朗普公开支持乔丹而非斯卡利斯担任议长。然而，在秘密投票中，斯卡利斯获胜。
Even if Johnson had Trump’s backing, that hasn’t always helped in the past. In 2023, following McCarthy’s ouster, Trump publicly backed Jordan for speaker over Scalise. However, on the private ballot, Scalise came out victorious.
同样，当斯卡利斯退出后乔丹最终获得提名时，特朗普的背书并未转化为议院上的选票，因为一群议员在多轮投票中反对他。
Similarly, when Jordan did eventually get the nomination after Scalise dropped out, Trump’s endorsement didn’t translate into votes on the floor, as a bloc of members opposed him on multiple ballots.
失败后，乔丹一直试图将自己重塑为一名团队球员。他通过每周，有时甚至每天与党团内的同事进行联系，与共和党党团保持着持续接触，多名议员向《太阳报》透露了这一情况。
Following the defeat, Jordan has been attempting to rebuild his image into someone who is a team player. He’s been in constant contact with the Republican conference through weekly, and at times daily, check-ins with his colleagues across the conference, multiple members told The Sun.
“吉姆·乔丹每周都给我打电话，他知道我上次不支持他，这次也不支持他，但他仍然给我打电话，”一名立法者向《太阳报》表示。
“Jim Jordan calls me every week, and he knows I wasn’t for him last time and not for him this time, and yet he still calls,” one lawmaker told The Sun.
如果共和党保住多数席位，特朗普的影响力将稍大一些，因为议员们将不得不在众议院议场公开投票选举议长。但如果处于少数党，议员们将在中期选举后的一周内，通过秘密投票在闭门选举中投票，共和党议员表示，特朗普的权力将大幅削弱。
Trump will have a bit more sway if Republicans retain the majority because lawmakers will have to publicly cast their ballot for speaker on the House floor. But, in the minority, members will vote via secret ballot the week after the midterms in a closed-door election, where Republican lawmakers say Trump’s power diminishes dramatically.
白宫发言人丽兹·赫斯顿被问及特朗普的角色时，对《太阳报》表示：“特朗普总统专注于维持共和党在国会的多数席位。”
White House spokesperson Liz Huston, asked about Trump’s role, told The Sun, “President Trump is focused on maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”
“如果我们赢了，总统就说了算，一如既往，”一名获准匿名以便坦率发言的议员对《太阳报》说。“但如果我们输了，他的影响力就小得多。”
“If we win, then POTUS runs the show, as always,” one lawmaker, given anonymity to speak candidly, told The Sun. “But if we lose, he’s got a lot less stroke.”