新闻 南非前总统雅各布·祖马健康状况引发的担忧，引发了人们对以他为核心建立的民粹主义政党“民族之矛”（uMkhonto weSizwe，简称MK）未来的质疑。该党已经重塑了该国的政治格局。
The News Concerns over the health of former South African President Jacob Zuma have raised questions about the future of uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), the populist party built around him that has redrawn the country’s political landscape.
这位84岁的老人两周前被送往医院。此后，MK官员和祖马基金会就其健康状况发布了相互矛盾的说法。该党最初将祖马描述为身体健康，正在接受常规检查，随后将回家。这一说法后来被基金会否定，基金会称他仍住院治疗，并拒绝提供定期更新。
The 84-year-old was taken to hospital two weeks ago. Since then, MK officials and the Zuma Foundation have circulated conflicting accounts about his condition. The party initially described Zuma as healthy and undergoing routine checks before returning home. That claim was later contradicted by the foundation, which said he remained in hospital and declined to provide regular updates.
该党旗舰活动“西雅塔塔”集会（Siyathatha rally）在南非市政选举前不到三周被取消，这反映出其影响。由于祖马在该党中扮演核心角色——他在近三年前公开成立该党，当时他从非洲人国民大会（ANC）转投此党，以备参加大选——这种不确定性已经成为一个政治问题。
In a sign of the impact on the party, MK canceled its flagship Siyathatha rally less than three weeks before South Africa’s municipal elections. The uncertainty has become a political issue because of Zuma’s central role in the party he publicly launched nearly three years ago, after switching from the African National Congress (ANC) ahead of a general election.
MK在2024年大选中崛起为南非政治的主要力量之一，以废除宪法、无偿征收土地以及国有化银行、保险公司和战略矿山为承诺，赢得了近15%的选票。其表现加速了曾由纳尔逊·曼德拉领导的非洲人国民大会的衰落，该党自 apartheid 结束以来首次失去议会多数席位，被迫组建联合政府。
MK emerged from the 2024 poll as one of the biggest forces in South African politics, winning nearly 15% of the vote on promises to scrap the constitution, expropriate land without compensation and nationalize banks, insurers and strategic mines. Its performance accelerated the slide of the ANC, once led by Nelson Mandela, which lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid and was forced to form a coalition government.
然而，MK的崛起伴随着领导层动荡、内部清洗以及候选人选拔反复发生的争议。祖马缺席公开竞选活动，加剧了人们对该运动能否在没有他的情况下保持势头的担忧。
Still, the MK’s rise has been punctuated by leadership turmoil, internal purges, and recurring disputes over candidate selection. Zuma’s absence from public campaigning has heightened questions about whether the movement can maintain its momentum without him.
南非智库经济研究局的时政分析人士娜塔莎·马里安指出，MK党最初是由那些反对非洲人国民大会领导人西里尔·拉马福萨的总统祖马支持者们脱离原党后组建的，从一开始就是祖马一手操办的产物。“祖马是该党的核心吸引力所在，”她说道，“一旦他不在，便再无能凝聚全党的核心人物了。”
Natasha Marrian, a political analyst at the Bureau for Economic Research, a South African think tank, said the MK party, launched as a breakaway outfit for Zuma supporters who opposed the ANC leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa, was a Zuma project from the outset. “He is the party’s central drawcard,” she said. “There’s no clear center holding it together in his absence.”
值得一提的是，祖马的儿子杜杜扎内担任该党的第一副主席，被广泛视为潜在的接班人。不过分析人士质疑他能否重现父亲的号召力——祖马曾在2009年至2018年间执掌南非，后因腐败指控及大规模“国家被俘获”丑闻而下台。
Know More Zuma’s son, Duduzane, serves as the party’s first deputy president and is widely regarded as a potential successor, but analysts question whether he can replicate the appeal of his father, who led South Africa from 2009 to 2018 before being ousted amid corruption allegations and a wider state capture scandal.
“杜杜扎内完全是个毫无政治知名度的人物，”南非西北大学的政治分析人士安德烈·杜文哈格说道，“他出身商界。”独立政治分析人士穆萨·祖卢则认为，祖马的缺席或许对非洲人国民大会有利。他补充道，如果祖马在竞选期间基本不露面，那些原本追随他的选民就有可能重新倒向非洲人国民大会。“当前，非洲人国民大会正成为祖马淡出公众政治舞台的最大受益者。MK党就是雅各布·祖马，而雅各布·祖马就是MK党。”祖卢说道。
“Duduzane is a completely unknown political figure,” said André Duvenhage, a political analyst at South Africa’s North-West University. “He comes from a business background.”The ANC may benefit from Zuma’s absence, said Musa Xulu, an independent political analyst, adding that if he remains largely absent from the campaign trail, some ANC voters who followed him could drift back. “The ANC is becoming the biggest beneficiary of Zuma’s current disappearance from public politics. The MK party is Jacob Zuma and Jacob Zuma is the MK,” Xulu said.
值得关注的是，在2026年11月4日的地方选举前夕，非洲人国民大会取得了一次法律层面的胜利：宪法法院作出有利于该党的裁决，责令选举委员会将181名此前被取消资格的候选人重新列入候选人名单。
Notable The ANC secured a legal victory ahead of the 4 November 2026 local government elections when the Constitutional Court ruled in its favour, ordering the electoral commission to reinstate 181 disqualified candidates onto the ballot papers.