周三，巴克莱发布了一份报告，阐述了特斯拉与SpaceX合并可能的模式。报告发布后，预测市场交易员将合并发生在2027年初的概率提升至50%以上。
Following a Barclays note Wednesday that outlined what a merger between Tesla and SpaceX could look like, prediction market traders increased the odds of an integration above 50% for early 2027.
自周三起，合并发生在3月前的概率在周五早晨升至56%，较之前的29%显著上升。合并发生在4月和5月前的概率也升至类似水平。
Since Wednesday, odds of a merger happening before March jumped to 56% by Friday morning, up from 29%. Odds for an integration before April and May climbed to similar levels.
该合约的问题是：“特斯拉和SpaceX何时会合并？”其结果将由新闻媒体和美国证券交易委员会的EDGAR数据库进行验证。
The contract asks, "When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?" and will be verified by news outlets and the Securities and Exchange Commission's EDGAR database.
特斯拉以电动汽车闻名，SpaceX是一家火箭和卫星公司。两家公司此前曾有合作，且均由埃隆·马斯克控制。
Tesla, known for its electric vehicles, and SpaceX, a rocket and satellite company, have collaborated before. Both are controlled by Elon Musk.
周四，特斯拉展示了其长期推迟的Roadster跑车，该车依赖SpaceX技术实现悬浮。此外，一段展示Roadster性能的视频也在SpaceX位于德克萨斯州的测试场地录制完成。
On Thursday, Tesla showed off its long-delayed Roadster, which relies on SpaceX technology to make the vehicle hover. A video showcasing the Roadster's capabilities was also recorded from SpaceX's test site in Texas.
除了现有合作外，合并猜测的升温源于马斯克在特斯拉最新财报电话会议上表示，特斯拉与SpaceX之间存在“越来越多的重叠”。
Beyond collaboration, the growing speculation of a merger comes after Musk spoke of "more and more overlap" between Tesla and SpaceX on EV maker's latest earnings call.
巴克莱目前预计，合并可能在特斯拉年度股东大会前宣布，而该股东大会必须在2026年12月6日之前举行。分析师丹·利维认为，此次合并可能以人工智能垂直整合形式提出，涉及特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus与SpaceX的Grok和Macrohard。
Barclays now expects a merger could be announced before Tesla's annual general meeting, which must take place no later than Dec. 6, 2026. Analyst Dan Levy expects the merger may be proposed as an AI vertical integration, involving Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX's Grok and Macrohard.
利维还补充称，依赖特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI的半导体项目Terafab也可能成为合并的“关键驱动力”。
Terafab, the semiconductor project relying on Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, could also be a "key driver" for the merger, Levy added.
他指出：“虽然我们认为其中可能存在一些财务协同效应，但真正的价值在于垂直整合。”
"Notably, while we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration," said Levy.
周五早些时候，Evercore ISI建议在SpaceX下一次财报发布前买入其股份，该财报定于11月初发布，并将其12个月股价目标上调20%至275美元。
Earlier Friday, Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of its next scheduled earnings release, set for early November, and boosted its 12-month price target on the stock by 20% to $275.
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