根据领先的选举预测机构的评估，美国最共和党化的州在争夺其唯一众议院席位的竞选中，已不再被视为共和党完全安全的地区。
America’s most Republican state is no longer considered entirely safe for the GOP in the race for its sole House seat, according to a leading election forecaster.
《内部选举》（Inside Elections）在周四发布的最新众议院评级中，将怀俄明州的全州选区（at-large congressional district）从“稳固共和党”（Solid Republican）调整为“可能共和党”（Likely Republican）。
Inside Elections moved Wyoming’s at-large congressional district from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" in its latest House ratings, published Thursday.
这一变化意味着共和党的失利仍将是一次重大冷门，但该席位已不再处于该预测机构最安全的类别。
The change means a Republican defeat would still be a major upset, but the seat is no longer in the forecaster’s most secure category.
“全国最共和党化的州不应接近众议院战场，”《内部选举》的雅各布·鲁巴什金（Jacob Rubashkin）和英沙拉·阿里（Inshara Ali）在该机构10月15日的更新中写道。
"The most Republican state in the country shouldn’t be anywhere close to the House battleground," Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin and Inshara Ali wrote in the forecaster's October 15 update.
“但根据私人民调，特朗普总统的支持率仅勉强超过50%，而共和党候选人、州务卿查克·格雷（Chuck Gray）在全州范围内深不得人心。”
"But President Donald Trump is barely above water according to private polling, and GOP nominee Chuck Gray, the state secretary of state, is deeply unpopular statewide."
为何重要：在特朗普以71.6%得票率击败前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯（25.84%）的州，这一情况尤为显著。
Why It Matters It is striking in a state where Trump won 71.6 percent of the 2024 vote, compared with 25.84 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris.
特朗普在2024年以45.76个百分点的优势获胜，这是他在任何州取得的最大胜利 margin，而他的得票率也创下了怀俄明州总统候选人的最高纪录，超过了罗纳德·里根在1984年获得的70.51%。
Trump's 45.76-point victory in 2024 was his largest margin in any state, while his vote share was the highest recorded by a presidential nominee in Wyoming, surpassing Ronald Reagan’s 70.51 percent in 1984.
格雷在共和党初选中以31,224票（占25.3%）胜出，领先最近的对手五个百分点。
Gray won a crowded Republican primary with 31,224 votes, or 25.3 percent, finishing five points ahead of his nearest rival.
民主党候选人、律师兼前州参议员丽莎·金尼（Lisa Kinney）以9,344票（占76.5%）赢得初选。
Democratic nominee Lisa Kinney, a lawyer and former state senator, won her primary with 9,344 votes, or 76.5 percent.
该席位空缺是因为共和党众议员哈里特·哈格曼（Harriet Hageman）正在参选参议院。自由党候选人肖恩·约翰逊（Shawn Johnson）和宪法党候选人杰夫·哈吉特（Jeff Haggit）也将参加11月3日的选举。
The seat is open because Republican Representative Harriet Hageman is running for the Senate. Libertarian Shawn Johnson and Constitution Party candidate Jeff Haggit are also on the November 3 ballot.
其他预测机构仍将此次竞选置于共和党阵营，意味着此次评级调整并不表明民主党有望获胜。
Other forecasters continue to place the contest firmly in the Republican column, meaning the rating change is not evidence that Democrats are favored to win.
《政治报告》（Cook Political Report）将该赛道评为“稳固共和党”，而Decision Desk HQ则给予查克·格雷超过99%的胜算。
Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, and Decision Desk HQ gives Chuck Gray a greater than 99 percent chance of victory.
然而，Inside Elections 的转变也表明，候选人特定的担忧以及特朗普的支持度可能使这个传统上极其共和党的州比其最近的选举结果所显示的更难以预测。
The Inside Elections shift does, however, suggest that candidate-specific concerns and Trump’s standing may have made an extraordinarily Republican state less predictable than its recent election results would indicate.
《新闻周刊》周五上午向格雷和金尼竞选团队发送电子邮件，征求他们的评论。
Newsweek emailed the Gray and Kinney campaigns for comment on Friday morning.
尽管评级有所变化，但两大预测市场平台上的交易者仍认为格雷是明显的热门人选。
What Prediction Markets Say About the Wyoming Race Despite the ratings change, traders on two major prediction-market platforms still regard Gray as the clear favorite.
Kalshi 的截图显示，格雷获胜的概率为 92.7%，金尼为 7.3%，并在撰写时显示交易量为 13,684 美元。
Kalshi screenshot placed Gray’s chance of winning at 92.7 percent and Kinney’s at 7.3 percent, with $13,684 in trading volume displayed at the time of writing.
与此同时，Polymarket 将格雷的获胜概率定为 97%，金尼为 3%，交易额约为 51,130 美元。这些数字应被视为市场价格，而非民意调查结果或保证。
Meanwhile, Polymarket put Gray at 97 percent and Kinney at 3 percent, with approximately $51,130 traded. Those numbers should be treated as market prices, not as poll findings or guarantees.
预测市场允许参与者购买与特定结果挂钩的合约，能够快速响应新信息，并汇总有金钱利害关系的参与者的判断。然而，其价值部分取决于参与度和流动性。
Prediction markets, which allow participants to purchase contracts tied to an outcome, can respond quickly to new information and aggregate the judgments of participants who have money at stake. However, their value depends partly on participation and liquidity.
规模较小的市场可能对单笔交易更为敏感，且其用户可能不代表整个选民群体。
A relatively small market can be more sensitive to individual trades, and its users may not resemble the electorate.
市场价格也可能融入常识、筹款情况、民意调查以及州的历史党派倾向，而不仅仅反映对选民的独立认识。为何民主党仍面临艰巨挑战 金尼参加大选时财政资源有限。
Market prices can also incorporate conventional wisdom, fundraising, polling and a state’s historical partisanship rather than independent knowledge about voters. Why the Race Is Still an Uphill Battle for Democrats Kinney entered the general election with limited financial resources.
联邦选举委员会的数据显示，她的竞选团队在 1 月 1 日至 7 月 29 日期间共筹得 17,946 美元，期末手头现金为 2,009.75 美元。
Federal Election Commission data covering January 1 through July 29 show her campaign received $17,946 and ended the period with $2,009.75 in cash on hand.
这种差距、怀俄明州的共和党倾向以及预测市场的价格都表明格雷仍然是热门人选。
That disparity, Wyoming’s Republican lean and the prediction-market prices all point to Gray remaining the favorite.
但 Inside Elections 认为，他的“独特脆弱性”可能使此次众议院选举成为自民主党候选人加里·特劳纳在 2006 年和 2008 年分别以微弱优势落败以来，该州最具竞争力的众议院选举。
But Inside Elections argued that his "unique vulnerabilities" could make this the state’s most competitive House contest since Democrat Gary Trauner narrowly lost in 2006 and 2008.
Newsweek的记者和编辑使用了Martyn，我们的AI助手，来制作这篇报道。
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story.
如需联系Newsweek编辑，请联系本报道的编辑：Ben Kelly和Trevor Davies。
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly and Trevor Davies