在九月下旬，众议院共和党领导层、主要政治运作机构和个人竞选团队的顶级共和党人收到了大量内部民调。这引发了前所未有的恐慌。
In late September, top Republicans across House GOP leadership, leading political operations and individual campaigns received a trove of internal polling. It sparked a new level of panic.
这些民调不仅显示执政党面临的环境与典型的中期选举一样严峻，而且还揭示了全国多个原本安全的红色席位出现了接近灾难性的情景，三位直接了解此事并获匿名以讨论私人信息的知情人士透露。
The polling didn’t just reveal a harsh environment for the party in power on par with typical midterms, but rather some close-to-catastrophic scenarios in a slew of formerly safe red seats across the country, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss private information.
肯塔基、北卡罗来纳、内华达等地区的关键席位——这些地区在2024年特朗普总统以10分以上优势获胜——变得竞争激烈。爱荷华州所有三个易受攻击的共和党席位看起来注定要失守。更令人不安的是，一批多年未曾面临严峻选战的共和党现任者，从俄克拉荷马到威斯康星乃至更远地区，都变得脆弱。
Key seats in Kentucky, North Carolina, Nevada and other areas that President Donald Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024 were competitive. All three vulnerable GOP-held seats in Iowa looked doomed. And most ominously, a crop of Republican incumbents who haven’t had to run serious races in years were vulnerable, from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and beyond.
现在，距离选举日不到四周，担忧已深入人心，氛围极其不确定，共和党人开始为最坏的情形做好准备。
Now, less than four weeks before Election Day, the concerns are running so deep and the atmosphere is so uncertain that Republicans are beginning to brace for some of the worst-case scenarios.
“民调情况不容乐观，”退休的乔治亚州众议员巴里·劳德米尔克在一次采访中说。“但我们也看到过去几届选举的民调非常难以预测。我认为有太多因素在起作用，当然，三周后的局面在政治时间上相当遥远。”一位参与讨论的资深众议院共和党人补充道：“我觉得可怕的地方在于我们不知道底线在哪里。”他们与本报告中的其他人一样，获准匿名以诚实讨论政治气候。
"Polls aren't looking good,” retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) said in an interview. “But we've also seen in the past couple of cycles, polls are really hard to predict. I think there's just a lot of things in play, and of course, what do we have three weeks out — that's light years in political time.”One senior House Republican involved in the conversations added: “I think the scary part is we don’t know where the bottom is.”They, like others in this report, were granted anonymity to discuss the political climate honestly.
根据与二十多位共和党议员和资深运营人员的对话，他们最担心的是——在一些州成为共和党联盟核心的白人工人阶级选民——他们不仅可能在下个月不去投票，甚至会因高油价和伊朗战争而愤怒或失望，导致足够多的人转而投票给民主党。
Their worst fear — according to conversations with more than two dozen Republican lawmakers and senior operatives — is that white working class voters in some states who have become central to the GOP coalition won’t just stay home next month, but instead they’ll be so angry or disillusioned by high fuel prices and the war in Iran that enough of them will vote for Democrats.
“环境问题真的让很多人感到非常恐惧，”一位参与竞争激烈的、倾向于共和党的众议院选举活动的共和党工作人员说道。
“The environment has a lot people scared to death,” said one GOP operative working on a red-leaning House race that is competitive.
“民主党票数的增长究竟来自哪里？”这位工作人员问道，“真的是白人工人阶级没有投票吗？这仍然是个未解之谜，我们根本不知道答案……这简直不可思议。”
“Where is the surge in Dem votes coming from?” that operative asked. “Is it truly no turnout among white working class? It's such an open question and we just don't know the answer. It's impossible.”
全国共和党国会委员会（NRCC）和共和党全国委员会（RNC）的发言人对此表示不予理会。
Spokespeople for the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Republican National Committee brushed off the concerns.
“那些整天在媒体上夸夸其谈、却从不真正为赢得选举而努力的‘匿名策略师’，根本不知道自己在说什么，”NRCC的发言人娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷（Natalie Baldassarre）说道。
"Anonymous strategists who spend more time bed-wetting to media than working in the trenches to win races have no idea what they're talking about,” RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said.
NRCC的另一位发言人迈克·马里内拉（Mike Marinella）也表示赞同：“共和党在众议院的选区布局更为有利，基层支持力量更强，筹款和开支方面也具有明显优势；此外，共和党还有经验丰富的现任议员。而民主党则不得不勉强支持那些根本不可能当选的社会主义候选人……”不过，共和党高层领导人的出行安排其实暴露了他们的担忧：约翰逊周五将前往保守派势力强大的肯塔基州，为共和党候选人拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多（Ralph Alvarado）筹款——该选区在2024年特朗普以15个百分点的优势获胜。
NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella agreed: “House Republicans have a more favorable map, a stronger ground game, a historic fundraising and spending advantages, and battle-tested incumbents while Democrats are stuck dragging their unelectable socialist nominees across the finish line.”Still, top Republicans’ travel schedule reveals the extent of their concerns: Johnson is heading to deep-red Kentucky on Friday for a fundraiser to boost Republican Ralph Alvarado in the 6th District, which Trump won by 15 points in 2024.
约翰逊和特朗普还都计划前往蒙大拿州；在那里，共和党正在努力阻止民主党候选人当选——因为特朗普在2020年以超过11个百分点的优势赢得了该选区的胜利。
Johnson and Trump are also both planning trips to Montana where Republicans are working to fend off a Democratic challenger in a district the president won by more than 11 points.
“约翰逊议长在选举前的一个月里，奔走于40多个选区和20多个州，竭尽全力，毫不留余地，”约翰逊的发言人格雷格·斯蒂尔说。斯蒂尔指出约翰逊创纪录的第三季度筹款后补充道：“约翰逊并未放慢脚步，正帮助把资源送到决定多数的每一个选区。”
“Speaker Johnson is leaving it all on the field and leaving no stone unturned as he campaigns in more than 40 districts and over 20 states in the month leading up to the election,” Johnson’s spokesperson Greg Steele said. And, pointing to Johnson’s record-setting third quarter funding, Steele added that: “Johnson is not slowing down and helping to get resources to every district that will decide the majority.”
特朗普将在深红色的田纳西州举行集会，地点位于共和党议员马特·范·埃普斯的选区。该席位仍被视为相对安全，州内的其他几个席位也未进入共和党的视野，但战争的持续拖延以及其他因素让他们感到不安。
Trump is holding a rally in deep-red Tennessee on Saturday, in GOP Rep. Matt Van Epps’ district. That seat — which is still considered generally safe — and several others in the state have not been on Republicans’ radar at all, but the current drag of the war and other factors are just too big for them to be comfortable.
“一位田纳西州共和党人对民主党正在瞄准的倾向红色的选区表示：‘我对该地区的三个选区都感到担忧，未知因素太多。’”即使内部共和党数据显示一系列问题，共和党人仍认为民调过分夸大了民主党的优势。“我认为毫无疑问存在抽样不足，”一位不愿透露姓名的共和党全国委员会官员在讨论内部 deliberations 时表示。
“I’m worried about all three in the area,” one Tennessee Republican said of the red-leaning districts Democrats are targeting. “Too many unknowns.”Even as internal GOP data shows a series of troubles, Republicans argue the polls are overemphasizing Democrats’ advantage. “I think there’s no question there is some undersampling,” said one RNC official, granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
“我并不惊讶这些选区会如此胶着，也不惊讶民主党试图让我们看起来在各处都处于防御状态，”他们说。“这些选举从来不是我们以为的必胜之局，但我对我们在所有选区的整体表现非常满意。”该人士补充说，尽管对形势持更乐观的看法，共和党全国委员会官员并没有对挑战“视而不见”。
“I’m not surprised any of these are close. I’m not surprised that Democrats are trying to make it seem like we’re on defense everywhere,” they said. “These are never [races] that we assumed were overall slam dunks, but I very much like where we sit in all of them.”Still, the person added that RNC officials don’t have their “heads in the sand” about the challenges, even as they have a more optimistic view of the map.
卢德米尔克（Loudermilk）指出，共和党在应对高油价及其他商品价格上涨问题上缺乏统一的宣传策略：“我认为我们在这方面的表现还不够好。”
Loudermilk pointed to Republicans’ lack of cohesive messaging on high gas prices and other goods: “I don’t know if we’re doing a good enough job doing that.”
“目前的政治环境对共和党来说并不理想，”弗吉尼亚州共和党众议员摩根·格里菲斯（Morgan Griffith）在9月底对记者表示，但他仍坚信共和党能够保住众议院的控制权。“2010年我刚当选时，共和党的处境要好得多。”
“It’s not the best of environments,” Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) told reporters in late September, though he still maintained the GOP will keep House control. “I liked it a lot better when I first got elected in 2010, when the environment was much better for Republicans.”
据四位了解内部情况的人士透露，共和党高层最担心的是在中西部关键选区中失去支持。他们认为，如果现有的民调结果不变，共和党在艾奥瓦州的三个摇摆选区（众议员扎克·纳恩（Zach Nunn）和玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯（Mariannette Miller-Meeks）的选区，以及接替现任参议员候选人阿什利·欣森（Ashley Hinson）的选举）都很可能失利。
Top Republicans are most worried about staunching the bleeding in key Midwest districts. Senior Republicans believe their internal polling, if it holds, shows likely losses across all three at-risk GOP seats in Iowa: Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks and the race to replace now-Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, according to four people with direct knowledge of the private information.
一位不愿公开姓名的白宫官员坦言：“艾奥瓦州这些选区的‘悲观情绪’其实并不新鲜。”但他认为共和党的表现可能比大多数人预期的要好，并表示“等到11月3日选举日时，人们会感到意外。”不过，该地区其他选区的形势也在恶化：担任众议院行政主管的威斯康星州众议员布莱恩·斯泰尔（Bryan Steil）的选情变得非常紧张（他在2024年以11个百分点的优势获胜）；同样，明尼苏达州众议员布拉德·芬斯塔德（Brad Finstad）的选情也不容乐观（他在2024年以12个百分点的优势获胜）。
A White House official, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the races, said the “doom and gloom notion” among the Iowa seats isn’t a new phenomenon. “But I do think that they’re probably performing better than most think that they are. And I think that folks will be pleasantly surprised [when] we go into November 3.”But benchmarks they’re watching across the larger region are deteriorating as well. Wisconsin Rep. Bryan Steil, the House Administration chair, is in a tighter than comfortable race after winning by 11 points in 2024 — as is Rep. Brad Finstad across the border in Minnesota, who won his district by 12 points 2024.
在密歇根州，共和党在多个关键选区面临诸多挑战；他们原本认为那些选区较为稳固的共和党议员（如约翰逊周三曾为其助选的比尔·惠曾加（Bill Huizenga），以及正在竞选州长、现任众议员约翰·詹姆斯（John James）的继任者）的选情也岌岌可危。
In Michigan, the party has a host of problems in battleground districts, but now feels that once-safer seat Republicans — like Bill Huizenga, who Johnson campaigned with Wednesday, and the race to replace Rep. John James, who is running for governor — are in jeopardy.
类似地，在内布拉斯加州，由于共和党外部支持组织放弃了原本支持的、由即将退休的众议员唐·贝肯（Don Bacon）掌控的蓝色倾向选区，共和党人将注意力转向了迈克·弗拉德（Mike Flood）的选区——特朗普曾在2016年的选举中以12个百分点的优势在该选区获胜。
Similarly, after top GOP outside groups cut bait on the blue-leaning Nebraska district held by retiring Rep. Don Bacon, Republicans in the state turned their attention to Rep. Mike Flood’s seat, which Trump carried by 12 points.
对共和党而言，在更安全的红色席位中有一个积极因素：许多人现在正全力以赴巩固自己的竞选，而不是在十一月前漫不经心。
One silver lining for Republicans in safer red seats is many are digging in now to shore up their races, and aren’t sleepwalking to November.
白宫官员表示，共和党在中期选举中需要动员的是特朗普的“选民联盟”，并且“总统本月几乎每晚都在路上……与这些人沟通”。但民主党人继续向红色地区扩张，同时预测会取得巨大胜利。
The White House official said it’s Trump’s “coalition of voters” that Republicans need to turn out in the midterms, and “the president is on the road almost every night this month … communicating with those individuals.”But Democrats continue to stretch further into red territory while forecasting big wins.
“我们有信心能够达到218席，”民主党国会竞选委员会政治主任布鲁克·巴特勒本周早些时候在接受采访时说，民主党有望赢得多达240个席位。“我从选举周期伊始就告诉人们的一个问题是‘能赢多少？’”尽管民主党人日益乐观，但他们也在因共和党巨额的现金优势而面临艰难抉择，这让共和党对能够保住一些民主党资源不足以竞争的席位抱有希望。共和党高级众议院运营者对多个核心竞争区仍保持信心——包括那些候选人已经与特朗普保持一定距离的地区。
“We feel confident that we will get to 218,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee political director Brooke Butler said in an interview earlier this week, saying the party could win as many as 240 seats. “The question that I’ve told people from the beginning cycle is ‘How much?’”But while Democrats are increasingly bullish, they are navigating their own tough decisions because of Republicans’ massive cash advantage, leaving the GOP optimistic they can hold a few seats where Democrats don’t have the resources to compete. Top GOP House operatives remain confident about a number of core battleground districts — including where candidates have already put some distance between themselves and Trump.
一位全国党务工作者仍抱有希望，随着选举日临近，竞选形势会比目前的民调显示的更为接近，这在过去的选举周期中曾经出现过。这将有助于他们保住一些竞争激烈的红色席位。
One national party operative remained hopeful that as Election Day nears, the races will get closer than polling currently suggests, as has been the case in past cycles. That would help them hold some of these redder seats that are competitive.
即使共和党希望随着选举日临近，一些红色席位会从竞争名单中剔除，许多运营者仍向《政治》（POLITICO）表示担忧，外部组织将不得不开始向红色地区倾注资源以巩固这些席位，从而把重要的资金从战场地区转移出去。
Even as Republicans hope some red seats fall off the board as Election Day nears, many operatives told POLITICO they’re worried that outside groups will have to start siphoning resources into red areas to shore them up, moving important dollars out of the battlegrounds.
“位于R+10选区的人们表示选举结果势均力敌，他们正在寻求帮助，”一位参与关键众议院选区竞选的共和党工作人员说道。“在这些选区中，民主党确实拥有很大的胜算。”
“People that are in R+10 districts are showing [polling that] they’re tied and they're saying, ‘I need help,’” said a GOP operative working on a battleground House race. “There's real opportunity for Democrats in a lot of these.”
来自深红色选区阿肯色州的众议员弗伦奇·希尔（French Hill）担任金融服务委员会主席；他的对手最近被列入了民主党全国委员会（DCCC）的“红色选区转蓝色选区”名单。他在接受《Politico》采访时指出：“由于唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率极低，当前的政治环境非常严峻；人们普遍担心过去四年里经济泡沫膨胀所带来的负面影响。”
Rep. French Hill, the chair of the Financial Services Committee from deep-red Arkansas whose opponent was just added to the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” list, said in a recent interview with POLITICO that he considers “the atmosphere a very tough political environment right now because of President [Donald] Trump’s lack of favorability at the top, and you know people are concerned about, as I say, what it’s like to live under an inflated economy the last four years.”
作为永远的乐观主义者，约翰逊在本周宾夕法尼亚州的竞选活动中明确表示：“这次选举将会非常胶着。”
Johnson, an eternal optimist, made clear during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania this week that he believes “this will be a close election.”
他在整个竞选活动中不断强调：如果民主党获胜，将会带来什么后果：“他们肯定会立即试图弹劾总统；他们会利用一切时间调查总统、他的家人以及政府内阁和商界领袖的行为，这必然会扰乱市场秩序。试想一下，对于一个努力工作的家庭来说，这种情况会带来多大的压力……民主党已经把国会变成了一个充满政治斗争的场所。”
He’s ramping up his warnings across the campaign trail of what Democrats winning power would mean: “They would try to impeach the president, of course, immediately …They’d spend every waking hour investigating the president, his family, and the cabinet, and leaders of business and industry. That would roil the markets. Just ask yourself, if you're a hardworking family, how would that be for your family? That Democrats turned Congress into lawfare on steroids.”