一项针对俄亥俄州参议院和州长选举的最新民调显示，民主党在两场竞争中均处于领先。在参议院选举中，鲍灵格林州立大学（BGSU）的民调显示，前参议员谢罗德·布朗（D）以48%对42%，领先参议员乔恩·赫斯特（R）六个百分点，这一数据针对的是可能投票的选民。BGSU在9月份对该选举进行调查时，布朗仅领先三个百分点。
A new poll of the Ohio Senate and gubernatorial races shows Democrats ahead in both contests. In the Senate race, a Bowling Green State University (BGSU) poll found former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) ahead of Sen. Jon Husted (R) by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters. When BGSU surveyed the race in September, Brown had just a three-point lead.
俄亥俄州选民在认为谁会赢得选举的问题上持平，各占48%，无论他们支持谁。这一比例比9月份更接近——当时更多人认为赫斯特会获胜。在州长选举中，民主党人艾米·阿克顿以50%对44%，领先共和党人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米，也领先六个百分点。BGSU在9月份的民调中，阿克顿仅领先三个百分点。尽管大多数人仍认为拉马斯瓦米最终更有可能获胜，比例为55%对43%，但这一优势比BGSU在9月份的民调更小。
Ohio voters are evenly split 48 to 48 on who they think will win, regardless of who they support. That is narrower from September, when more thought Husted would win. In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy also by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent. In BGSU’s September poll, Acton had a three-point lead. Most still think Ramaswamy is likely to win in the end, 55 to 43, though that is a closer margin than in BGSU’s September poll.
俄亥俄州长期是摇摆州，但在过去十年里逐渐倾向共和党，起点是特朗普总统在2016年的胜利。前副总统哈里斯在2024年输掉俄亥俄州，差距为11个百分点；同年，布朗在参议院选举中以3.5个百分点之差失利。BGSU在其调查中指出，俄亥俄州的民主党投票动机高于共和党，比例为59%对41%，这一优势比9月份的民调更小。
Ohio was long a battleground state but has moved towards Republicans in the last decade, starting with President Trump’s win in 2016. Former Vice President Harris lost Ohio by 11 points in 2024, and Brown lost his Senate seat that year by 3.5 points. BGSU notes in its survey that Democrats in Ohio are more motivated to vote than Republicans, 59 percent to 41 percent, a narrower edge than in BGSU’s September poll.
BGSU政治学教授罗伯特·亚历山大表示，虽然民主党目前可能领先，但他们不应过早庆祝。“虽然这对民主党来说是个好消息，但俄亥俄州的蓝色浪潮远非板上钉钉，”亚历山大说。“共和党在最近的全州选举中已经缩小了差距，如果这些选举结果最终落在误差范围内的任一方向，我不会感到惊讶。”非党派选举预测机构Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）——《国会山报》的合作伙伴——也认为俄亥俄州的竞争非常激烈，认为布朗翻转该席位的机会只有53%。
BGSU Political Science Professor Robert Alexander said while Democrats may be ahead now, they should not celebrate just yet. “While this will be welcome news to Democrats, a blue wave in Ohio is far from a sure thing,” Alexander said. “Republicans have closed well in recent statewide elections, and I would be surprised if these races did not end up within the margin of error in either direction.”Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, agrees that the Ohio race is close, giving Brown just a 53 percent shot at flipping the seat.
整个选举周期中，摇摆州的参议院选举被政治广告淹没，BGSU的民调显示，俄亥俄州选民对此表示疲惫。
The battleground Senate races have been inundated with political ads throughout the cycle, and Ohio voters expressed fatigue in the BGSU poll.
仅有6%的可能参加投票的俄亥俄州选民希望在选举日之前看到更多政治广告，而60%的选民表示这些广告大多带有负面内容，这导致他们完全关闭了对竞选广告的关注。亚历山大说：“俄亥俄州选民仍然深度参与这场选举，但他们也告诉我们，不间断的政治广告轰炸已经变得令人难以承受。”这项由鲍灵格林州立大学与尤戈夫合作进行的民意调查，是一项基于网络的调查，对1000名可能参加投票的俄亥俄州选民进行，调查时间为9月29日至10月9日。误差范围为正负3.95个百分点。
Just 6 percent of likely Ohio voters want to see more political ads before Election Day, while 60 percent say the ads are largely negative, which has caused them to tune out campaign ads altogether. “Ohio voters remain deeply engaged in this election, but they are also telling us that the nonstop barrage of political advertising has become overwhelming,” Alexander said. The BGSU poll, conducted in partnership with YouGov, was a web-based survey of 1,000 likely Ohio voters fielded from Sept. 29-Oct. 9. The margin of error is +/- 3.95 points.