本轮选举中，民主党参议员候选人在五场竞争激烈的参议院选举中略占上风，或与共和党对手支持率不相上下。对这些选举的最新调查显示，这是共和党在更多传统上更偏共和党的地区也面临艰难中期选举环境的最新迹象。《纽约时报》和锡尼亚大学周六公布的民调显示，民主党在得克萨斯州参议院选举中领先6个百分点，在阿拉斯加州领先7个百分点，在俄亥俄州领先3个百分点，在艾奥瓦州落后1个百分点，并在堪萨斯州与共和党持平。
Senate Democratic candidates are edging out or polling neck and neck with their GOP counterparts in five competitive Senate races this cycle — the latest indicator that Republicans are facing a tough midterm environment in even more traditionally redder areas, according to new surveys of the races. Polling released by The New York Times and Siena University on Saturday found Democrats leading by 6 points in the Texas Senate race, 7 points in Alaska, 3 points in Ohio, down 1 point in Iowa and tied in Kansas. Because the surveys in Ohio, Iowa and Kansas are within the margin of error — 4.5 points in Ohio, 4.6 points in Iowa and 4.6 points in Kansas — those races are essentially tied.
由于俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州和堪萨斯州的误差范围分别为4.5、4.6和4.6个百分点，这三场选举实际上基本持平。共和党力图避免在参议院丢失席位，而民主党则志在拿下缅因州和北卡罗来纳州等传统战场的席位，并争取阿拉斯加州、得克萨斯州和艾奥瓦州等更偏共和党的州。预测人士几乎普遍预计民主党将赢得众议院，但参议院选举仍胜负难料，因为民主党至少需要拿下4个席位，才能重新控制参议院。
Republicans are looking to stave off losses in the Senate as Democrats look to flip traditional battleground seats in places like Maine and North Carolina, in addition to other more red-leaning states like Alaska, Texas and Iowa. While forecasters all but expect Democrats to pick up the House, the Senate remains a toss-up as the party needs to win at least four seats to regain control of the upper chamber. In addition to a midterm environment that’s traditionally unkind to the president’s party in power, GOP candidates are grappling with Trump’s low approval ratings, an unpopular war in Iran, a tariff war with Canada and inflation where cost of living remains a concern.
中期选举历来对总统所属的执政党不利，而共和党候选人还不得不应对特朗普低迷的支持率、一场不受欢迎的伊朗战争、与加拿大的关税战，以及生活成本仍令人担忧的通胀问题。据《纽约时报》与锡尼亚大学的民调，特朗普在这五个州的支持率普遍低迷，仅为38%至41%，同时不赞成率很高。他在这五州的不赞成率介于55%至60%之间。
Trump’s approval ratings are low across the board in all five states — between 38 percent and 41 percent — while grappling with very high disapproval ratings, according to the Times/Siena polling. His disapproval ratings in those five states range between 55 percent and 60 percent. The state where Trump performs the worst overall is Ohio, where voters gave him a 38 percent approval rating and 60 percent disapproval rating.
特朗普综合表现最差的州是俄亥俄州，当地选民给予他38%的支持率和60%的不赞成率。民调样本总体显示，民主党人与共和党人之间存在明显的热情差距——97%的民主党人不赞成特朗普，而80%的共和党人认可他的工作表现。
The polling sample overall showed a clear enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans — 97 percent of Democrats disapproved of Trump while only 80 percent of the GOP approved of his job. Another warning sign emerges with independents, as only 27 percent approve of his job as president while 71 percent disapprove.
独立选民方面又出现一个警号：只有27%的选民认可特朗普的总统工作，71%不予认可。共和党的另一个令人担忧的领域，是特朗普在未接受大学教育的白人选民和未接受大学教育的非白人选民中的支持率。在未接受大学教育的白人选民中，50%认可总统的工作，47%不予认可。在未接受大学教育的非白人选民中，只有29%认可特朗普，68%不予认可。
Another worrisome area for Republicans is Trump’s approval ratings with non-college educated white voters and non-college educated non-white voters. Among white, non-college educated voters, 50 percent approve of the president’s job while 47 percent disapprove. Among non-white, non-college educated voters, only 29 percent approve of Trump while 68 percent disapprove. Young voters, overall, are sour on the president.
总体而言，年轻选民对总统的工作并不满意。在18至29岁的选民中，只有五分之一，即21%，认可总统的工作，而特朗普在这一投票群体中的不认可率高达75%。“《时报》/锡耶纳”民调于9月21日至10月1日进行，完整样本包括2946名潜在选民，整体误差范围为2.1个百分点。艾奥瓦州民调于9月22日至10月1日进行，共调查606名选民，误差范围为4.6个百分点。
Just a fifth of voters aged between 18 and 29 years old — 21 percent — approve of the president while Trump fields a 75 percent disapproval rating from the voting bloc. The Times/Siena polls were conducted between Sept. 21 and Oct. 1, with the full sample size including 2,946 likely voters. The overall margin of error is 2.1 points. The Iowa poll was conducted between Sept. 22 and Oct. 1, with 606 voters surveyed; the margin of error is 4.6 points.
俄亥俄州民调于9月22日至10月1日进行，共调查616名选民，误差范围为4.5个百分点。得克萨斯州民调于9月21日至9月30日进行，共调查615名选民，误差范围为4.5个百分点。堪萨斯州民调于9月22日至9月30日进行，共调查605名选民，误差范围为4.6个百分点。阿拉斯加州民调于9月24日至10月1日进行，共调查504名选民，误差范围为5.1个百分点。
The Ohio poll was conducted between Sept. 22 and Oct. 1 with 616 voters surveyed; the margin error is 4.5 points. The Texas poll was conducted between Sept. 21 and Sept. 30 with 615 voters surveyed; the margin of error is 4.5 points. The Kansas poll was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 30 with 605 voters surveyed; the margin of error is 4.6 points. The Alaska poll was conducted between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1 with 504 voters surveyed; the margin of error is 5.1 points.