
葡萄牙总理安东尼奥·古特雷斯于1999年8月30日和9月8日从里斯本致电比尔·克林顿总统,讨论东帝汶日益加剧的危机。这个面积小的东南亚领土自1975年以来一直遭受印尼残酷占领,在公投中选民压倒性地选择独立后,再次陷入暴力之中。亲印尼民兵对独立投票作出回应,发动所谓的“焦土”行动,摧毁基础设施,使多达50万人流离失所,并造成数千人死亡。
Portugal's Prime Minister Antonio Guterres called President Bill Clinton from Lisbon on August 30 and September 8, 1999, to discuss the growing crisis in East Timor. The small Southeast Asian territory, which had endured a brutal Indonesian occupation since 1975, was again engulfed in violence after voters overwhelmingly chose independence in a referendum. Pro-Indonesian militias responded to the vote for independence by unleashing a so-called "scorched-earth" campaign, destroying infrastructure, displacing up to half a million people and killing thousands.
这场危机在葡萄牙引起共鸣,葡萄牙与其前殖民地在语言、天主教和历史方面的纽带助长了一场团结运动。大约1万名身着白衣的示威者在里斯本市街道上形成人链。
The crisis resonated in Portugal, where linguistic, Catholic, and historical ties to its former colony helped fuel a solidarity movement. An estimated 10,000 demonstrators, dressed in white, formed human chains through Lisbon`s city streets.
古特雷斯此前已经提出过此事。1996年在曼谷的一次峰会上,他会见了印尼总统苏哈托,并提出了政治敏感的东帝汶议题,提出以释放东帝汶抵抗领袖沙纳纳·古斯马奥为条件,恢复外交关系(自1975年入侵以来一直中断)。该提议遭到尴尬的沉默。
Guterres had raised the issue before. At a 1996 summit in Bangkok, he met Indonesia`s President Suharto and broached the politically sensitive topic of East Timor, offering to restore diplomatic relations (severed since the 1975 invasion) in exchange for the release of Timorese resistance leader Xanana Gusmao. The proposal was met with an awkward silence.
这一次,古特雷斯请求美国支持联合国在东帝汶的行动,但华盛顿不愿与印尼正面冲突。古特雷斯在其2022年出版的传记《诚实的调停者》中回忆称,他在第二次通话中警告克林顿,如果国际社会未能干预,葡萄牙可能重新考虑其在巴尔干的部署。葡萄牙对北约的贡献虽然规模不大,但位置重要,其军队曾参与北约在波斯尼亚和科索沃的突出战后冷战任务。
This time, Guterres was asking the United States to support a UN mission in East Timor, but Washington was reluctant to confront Indonesia. Guterres recalled in his 2022 biography, “Honest Broker”, that he warned Clinton during the second call that Portugal could reconsider its Balkan deployments if the international community failed to intervene. Portugals contribution to NATO was small but politically well-placed, with its troops serving in the alliances prominent post-Cold War missions in Bosnia and Kosovo.
古特雷斯向克林顿提出了一个选择:冒着与北约创始盟友公开决裂的风险,或利用华盛顿的影响力促使印尼接受东帝汶的国际部队。第二天,在国际压力日益增大的背景下,白宫表示印尼“必须”允许国际援助。
Guterres offered Clinton a choice: risk a public falling-out with a founding NATO ally, or use Washington`s influence to make Indonesia accept an international force in East Timor. The next day, amid growing international pressure, the White House stated that Indonesia “must” allow international assistance.
对古特雷斯而言,这是多边危机外交的一次早期考验,这一技能他后来在2017年担任联合国秘书长时得以运用。东帝汶,也称东帝汶民主共和国,最终在2002年赢得了独立。由于他在1999年危机期间主导了外交努力,古特雷斯于2024年获得了东帝汶公民身份。
For Guterres, it was an early test of multilateral crisis diplomacy, a skill set he would later bring to his post as UN secretary-general in 2017. East Timor, also known as Timor-Leste, finally won its freedom in 2002. For spearheading diplomatic efforts during the 1999 crisis, Guterres was awarded Timorese citizenship in 2024.
“安东尼奥·古特雷斯一直在推动我们现在所说的公投,当暴力爆发时,他是呼吁联合国干预的人之一,”利尔天主教大学的教师、东帝汶问题专家克里斯蒂娜·卡巴塞特在回顾东帝汶危机如何预示古特雷斯后来的职业生涯时说道。
“Antonio Guterres pushed a lot for what we now call the referendum, and when violence broke out he was one of the people calling for a UN intervention,” said Christine Cabasset, a teacher at Lille Catholic University and an expert on East Timor, reflecting on how the East Timor crisis foreshadowed Guterres`s later career.
“古特雷斯始终发挥着关键作用,”她补充道,并指出他后来推动了东帝汶联合国过渡行政当局的成立。
“Guterres had a critical role all along the way,” she added, noting how he later pushed for the creation of the UN Transitional Administration in East Timor.
“还有,东帝汶与联合国之间存在一种特殊的情感纽带,我的意思是,东帝汶与联合国之间有着紧密的联系……多边主义,这仍然真正是联合国的宗旨,在东帝汶的独立过程中发挥了关键作用。而古特雷斯[本人]从2005年起在联合国中变得非常重要。”古特雷斯对东帝汶危机的反应体现了他天主教信仰、早期在葡萄牙帮助穷人的工作以及独裁政权垮台后其政治成长所塑造的方法。
“There is also a kind of love story with the UN, I mean, that strong link between Timor-Leste and the UN… Multilateralism, which is still really the purpose of the UN, has been critical in the independence of Timor-Leste. And Guterres [himself] became very important in the UN starting from 2005.”Guterress response to the East Timor crisis reflected an approach shaped by his Catholic faith, his early work with Portugals poor and his political coming of age after the fall of a dictatorship.
他将这些经历带入了一个以寻找共同点、帮助陷入危机中的人们为核心的职业生涯。但作为联合国秘书长,他也面临着这种方法的局限,在世界上最强大的国家相互对立时,难以将和平呼吁转化为实际行动。
He carried those experiences into a career built on finding common ground and helping people caught in crises. But as UN secretary-general, he has faced the limits of that approach, struggling to turn appeals for peace into action when the world`s most powerful countries are at odds.
安东尼奥·曼努埃尔·德·奥利韦拉·古特雷斯于1949年4月30日出生于里斯本,父母是伊尔达·坎迪达·德·奥利韦拉·古特雷斯和维吉利奥·迪亚斯·古特雷斯,后者是里斯本煤气和电力公司的一名高级职员。他常在夏天和较长时间里与祖父母一起在小村庄多纳斯的乡下度过。他的童年朋友维托尔·迪亚斯向《公共报》透露,古特雷斯的祖母非常重视教育,并表示“他三四岁的时候就已经会写自己的名字了。”祖父母的房子正好位于教堂旁边,“小托尼”经常在那里当祭童。
Antonio Manuel de Oliveira Guterres was born in Lisbon on April 30, 1949, to Ilda Candida de Oliveira Guterres and Virgilio Dias Guterres, a senior employee of the Lisbon gas and electricity company. He spent summers and extended periods in the countryside with his grandparents in the small village of Donas. His childhood friend Vitor Dias told the newspaper Publico that Guterress grandmother stressed the importance of education and by “three or four years old, he already knew how to write his name.”The grandparents house was right next to the church where “Little Toni” often served as an altar boy.

当时的葡萄牙处于独裁者安东尼奥·萨拉扎尔的统治之下,他的“新国家”政权与意大利法西斯极为相似,但较少强调暴力、个人崇拜和革命热情,而更侧重于天主教保守主义。因此,葡萄牙在政治和文化上与民主的西欧大部分地区隔绝。
Portugal was then under the rule of dictator Antonio Salazar, whose Estado Novo regime closely resembled Italian fascism, but with less emphasis on brute force, personality cults and revolutionary zeal, and more on Catholic conservatism. As a result, the country was politically and culturally cut off from much of democratic Western Europe.
“作为独裁者,[萨拉扎尔]深受公司主义影响,即相信一个没有冲突的有机社会,同时也受到罗马天主教保守价值观的影响,”里斯本大学的历史学家安东尼奥·科斯塔·平托说道。
“As dictator, [Salazar] was very much marked by corporatism, the idea of an organic society without conflict and also by Roman Catholic conservative values,” said Antonio Costa Pinto, a historian at the University of Lisbon.
“但尤其是在60年代末和70年代初……它基本上变成了一个冷战时期的独裁政权,一个反共的政权。”该政权的核心信念之一是认为葡萄牙人天生适合殖民事业,并且顽固地坚持着历经几个世纪的葡萄牙帝国,在安哥拉、莫桑比克和几内亚比绍进行了流血的镇压。
“But especially in the late 60s and early 70s … it basically became a Cold War dictatorship, an anti-communist one.”Among the regime`s core beliefs was that the seafaring Portuguese were innately suited to colonialism and it stubbornly clung to the centuries-old Portuguese empire, fighting bloody rebellions in Angola, Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau.
“我们是一个非常封闭的国家。到处都有审查。我们有政治警察,”在那个时代长大的退休葡萄牙医生若昂·戈劳回忆道。
“We were a very closed country. We had censorship everywhere. We had the political police,” remembered Joao Goulao, a retired Portuguese doctor who grew up in that era.
“公民的流动性非常有限;我们在没有大量手续的情况下无法出国旅行。我们不是一个非常吸引人的旅游目的地,所以人们没有来到这里,我们也非常孤立。”然而,葡萄牙是北约的创始成员国,是美国的盟友,也是西方经济机构的参与者。
“There was a very limited mobility of citizens; we were not able to travel abroad without a lot of formalities. We were not a very sexy destination for tourism, so people didn`t come to us and we were very isolated.”Still, Portugal was a founding member of NATO, a US ally and a participant in Western economic institutions.
“特别是在20世纪60年代末,审查制度的类型与独裁政权所支持的价值观——非常保守——之间存在巨大矛盾,而葡萄牙社会的结构当时已经远比这些价值观更为现代。”科斯塔·平托说道。
“In the late 60s especially, there was a huge contradiction between the type of censorship and the type of values – very conservative – supported by the dictatorship and the structure of Portuguese society that was already much more modern,” said Costa Pinto.
“政治精英的价值观与更发达、受教育程度更高的中产阶级的价值观之间存在矛盾。”葡萄牙公民在日常生活中看到了这些矛盾:可口可乐被禁止在葡萄牙生产,而直到1970年,任何拥有打火机的人都需要每年申请一次许可证——这是一项为保护国家火柴产业而实施的规定。
“There was a contradiction between the values of the political elite and the values of a more developed, educated middle class.”Portuguese citizens saw those contradictions in everyday life: Coca-Cola was banned from being made in Portugal, and until 1970, anyone who owned a cigarette lighter needed an annual licence — a regulation imposed to protect the national match industry.
尽管在萨拉扎尔时期识字率有所提升,但在主要城市之外,许多葡萄牙儿童只能接受教师提供的最低限度教育,而这些教师往往自己也只有四年级的教育水平。这些教师的主要资格是对政权的忠诚。
Although literacy rates improved under Salazar, outside the major cities, many Portuguese children received only minimal schooling from teachers who often had only had a fourth-grade education themselves. The instructors` main qualification was loyalty to the regime.
但古特雷斯的祖母为确保他接受良好教育所做的努力最终得到了回报。他在里斯本的高中成绩优异,据报道于1965年获得国家学术奖。这位未来的政治家随后进入里斯本高等技术学院学习电气工程,并于1971年毕业。
But Guterresgrandmothers efforts to ensure he had a proper education paid off. He earned top marks at his high school in Lisbon and was reportedly recognised with a national academic prize in 1965. The future statesman went on to study electrical engineering at Lisbon`s Instituto Superior Tecnico, graduating in 1971.
在此期间,古特雷斯领导了大学的社会行动中心,该中心在首都最贫困的社区开展社会工作。他还加入了由神父维托尔·梅利西亚斯领导的天主教学生俱乐部“光之群”(Grupo da Luz),梅利西亚斯后来成为他的亲密个人朋友和知己。
While there, Guterres led the universitys Social Action Centre, which conducted social work in the capitals poorest neighbourhoods. He also joined the Grupo da Luz (Group of Light), a Catholic student club led by Father Vitor Melicias, who became a close personal friend and confidant.
尽管“光之团”从未直接挑战政权,但梅利西亚斯向《世界使命杂志》表示,该组织成员经常更换会面地点,以避免引起秘密警察的注意。
Although the Group of Light never directly challenged the regime, Melicias told World Mission Magazine that its members regularly changed meeting locations to avoid attracting the attention of the secret police.
即使在上大学之前,古特雷斯的信仰就影响了他对社会工作和志愿者活动的看法。他尤其受到1962年至1965年第二次梵蒂冈大公会议的启发,该会议肯定了教会对人权的承诺,并鼓励每个人在社会中发挥积极作用。1967年,年仅18岁的他加入了帮助里斯本特大洪水受害者的大规模运动,这场洪水造成数百人死亡。与此同时,政权试图掩盖灾难的规模。
Even before university, Guterress faith impacted his views on social work and volunteerism. He was especially inspired by the Second Vatican Council of 1962-1965, which affirmed the Churchs commitment to human rights and encouraged everyone to play an active role in society. In 1967, at age 18, he joined the mass movement to help victims of the catastrophic Lisbon flash floods, which had killed hundreds. The regime, meanwhile, worked to conceal the scale of the disaster.
“发生了大规模动员,尤其是学生——不仅仅是天主教徒——来支持里斯本郊区和塔古斯河流域被淹的贫民窟,”科斯塔·平托解释道。
“There was a huge mobilisation, especially of students – not just Catholics – to support the shantytowns that had been flooded in the suburbs of Lisbon and the Tagus River,” explained Costa Pinto.
“许多学生在这场支持贫民窟穷人的大规模运动的另一个影响下,对独裁政权产生了政治意识。”据他的传记介绍,古特雷斯通过天主教大学青年运动结识了他未来的妻子路易莎·阿梅利亚·吉马良斯·埃梅洛。这对夫妇于1972年结婚——由梅利西亚斯神父主持婚礼——并育有两个孩子,佩德罗和玛丽亚纳。古特雷斯说,是他的妻子,一名儿童精神科医生,与他分享了一条宝贵的教训,这在他的国际外交中证明很有用。
“Many of the students became politicised against the dictatorship as another effect of this huge movement to support the poor shantytowns.”Guterres met his soon-to-be wife, Luisa Amelia Guimaraes e Melo, through the Catholic University Youth movement, according to his biography. The couple wed in 1972 — Father Melicias officiated — and went on to have two children, Pedro and Mariana. Guterres said it was his wife, a child psychiatrist, who shared a valuable lesson with him that proved useful in his international diplomacy.
“她教会了我一件对我的所有政治活动都极其有用的事情。当两个人在一起时,他们不是两个人,而是六个人。每个人是什么,每个人认为自己是什么,以及每个人认为对方是什么,”他在2016年由《卫报》举办的一场辩论中表示。
“She taught me something that was extremely useful for all my political activities. When two people are together, they are not two but six. What each one is, what each one thinks he or she is and what each one thinks the other is,” he said at a 2016 debate hosted by the Guardian newspaper.
“而对人成立的道理,对国家和组织也成立。秘书长的角色之一……是确保误解消失,错误的认知消失。认知在政治中至关重要,”古特雷斯说。
“And what is true for people is also true for countries and organisations. One of the roles of the secretary-general … is to [ensure] that misunderstandings disappear and the false perceptions disappear. Perceptions are essential in politics,” Guterres said.
萨拉扎尔于1968年因病下台,两年后去世。在他的继任者马塞洛·卡埃塔诺的领导下,新国家政权一直延续到1974年。对殖民战争感到失望的一批军官发动政变,并于当年4月25日夺取了政府控制权。人群涌上街头,声援叛乱者,妇女们把红色康乃馨插进士兵的步枪枪管里,恳求他们不要开火。这就是后来被称为康乃馨革命的事件,它使葡萄牙走上了一条全新的道路。
Salazar fell ill and was removed from office in 1968, dying two years later. The Estado Novo survived under his successor, Marcelo Caetano, until 1974. Disillusioned with the colonial wars, a cadre of military officers mounted a coup and seized control of the government on April 25 that year. Crowds flooded the streets to rally behind the mutineers, and women stuck red carnations in soldiers` rifle barrels, begging them not to kill. The Carnation Revolution, as it became known, set Portugal on a whole new course.
“我们社会发生了彻底的变化,突然变得开放起来,”当时20岁的古拉奥说。
“There was a complete change, a sudden openness in our society,” said Goulao, who was 20 at the time.
“我们开始有权谈论我们的问题,新闻不再受到审查,”他解释道。葡萄牙公民也突然获得了出国旅行的权利,而这是他以前从未做过的事情。这激发了古拉奥购买了一张欧洲铁路通票,并在整个大陆旅行。“我游历了欧洲,看到许多我从未想象过的景象。葡萄牙变得时尚起来,于是我们开始接待大量游客。”他说。政变之后的这段时间也出现了紧张的革命动荡,科斯塔·平托表示,有人担心葡萄牙可能会陷入反动派的反政变或共产党夺权之中。但到1975年,更为温和的力量占了上风,该国又成为了一种西欧式的民主国家。
“We started to have the right to speak about our problems, without censorship in the press,” he explained. Portugals citizens were also suddenly able to travel abroad, which he had never done before. This inspired Goulao to buy an Interrail train pass and travel throughout the continent. “I travelled through Europe and I saw things Id never have guessed. Portugal became fashionable, so we started to have lots of people visiting us.”That period immediately after the coup also saw a tense revolutionary upheaval, said Costa Pinto, with some fearing that Portugal could fall to a reactionary counter-coup or a communist takeover. But by 1975, more moderate forces prevailed and the country became yet another West European-style democracy.

1974年,古特雷斯加入了社会党(PS),并留起了胡子,以纪念被推翻的智利左翼总统萨尔瓦多·阿连德。
In 1974, Guterres joined the Socialist Party (PS) and grew a moustache in tribute to Chile`s overthrown left-wing President Salvador Allende.
“我在1974年4月25日之前没有进行过重要的政治活动,”他在2016年接受记者安娜贝拉·莫塔·里贝罗采访时说。
“I didn`t have significant political activity before the 25th of April [of 1974],” he said in a 2016 interview with journalist Anabela Mota Ribeiro.
“我的参与是从社会问题开始的。我慢慢地通过这件事,觉醒到了政治选择,”他说。
“My involvement was in social issues. I slowly, through that, awakened to political options,” he said.
1976年,这位年轻的工程师在葡萄牙首次民主选举中当选为议员,代表卡斯特洛·布兰科选区。在社会党期间,古特雷斯曾在多个政府委员会任职。
In 1976, the young engineer was elected to parliament to represent Castelo Branco in Portugal`s first democratic election. During his years in the PS, Guterres sat on several government committees.
预示着他未来的职业生涯,他在1991年共同创立了葡萄牙难民理事会,该组织优先考虑为庇护申请者打击歧视和不平等。
Foreshadowing his future career, he cofounded the Portuguese Refugee Council in 1991, which prioritised fighting discrimination and inequality for asylum seekers.
同年,社会党(PS)在大选中败给了中右翼的社会民主党(PSD),该党领袖、总理阿尼巴尔·卡瓦科·席尔瓦曾主持多年稳定的经济增长。
That same year, the PS lost the general election to the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD), whose leader, Prime Minister Anibal Cavaco Silva, had presided over years of stable economic growth.
“我震惊了!”古特雷斯在选举之夜对记者说。这句话对社会党领袖若热·桑帕尤造成了打击,并为领导层挑战埋下了伏笔。古特雷斯次年接管了该党。随后他着手将社会党重塑为一个温和、现代的欧洲社会民主党,使其能够吸引其传统基础之外的选民。
“I`m in shock!”Guterres told reporters on election night. The remark dealt a blow to PS leader Jorge Sampaio and helped set the stage for a leadership challenge. Guterres took over the party the following year. He then set about recasting the PS as a moderate, modern European social-democratic party that could appeal beyond its traditional base.

该党更新了形象,将握紧的拳头与欧洲社会民主党所关联的玫瑰结合在一起,这是古特雷斯为软化该党激进形象、将其呈现为可信替代方案的一部分。
The party revised its imagery, pairing its clenched fist with the rose associated with European social democracy, part of Guterress push to soften the partys militant image and present it as a credible alternative.
“他的优先事项和领导风格基本上对民主制度非常尊重,”科斯塔·平托观察到。“其中没有典型民粹主义政治方式的因素。”同年,古特雷斯还当选为社会主义国际副主席,该组织是全球性的社会民主、社会主义和劳工党组织。
“His priority and leadership style were basically very respectful to democratic institutions,” observed Costa Pinto. “There were no elements of the typical populist type of approach to politics.”The same year, Guterres was also elected vice president of the Socialist International, a global organisation of social-democratic, socialist and labour parties.
古特雷斯以“心与理”为口号开展竞选活动,在1995年葡萄牙大选中以微弱优势获胜,成为少数派政府的总理。在没有议会多数的情况下执政要求他逐项议题建立支持,强化了他建设共识的风格。科斯塔·平托认为这种做法源于他在进入政坛之前就已形成的天主教活动经历。
Campaigning under the slogan “heart and reason”, Guterres narrowly won the 1995 Portuguese election and became prime minister of a minority government. Governing without a parliamentary majority required him to build support, issue by issue, reinforcing a consensus-building style. Costa Pinto traces that approach to the Catholic activism that shaped Guterres long before he got into politics.
“古特雷斯政治活动的主要骨架,可以说,是政治天主教,”科斯塔·平托说。“他属于中左翼、社会民主派,但他始终对两个特定维度非常关注。第一是民主的社会维度、再分配、对穷人的支持,这源自他在独裁政权最后阶段作为年轻天主教徒的早期活动。第二,当然,是天主教。”作为实践天主教徒,古特雷斯在社会党中脱颖而出,该党早期成员中包括许多世俗活动家和前马克思主义者。
“The main skeleton, lets say, of Guterres political activity is political Catholicism,” said Costa Pinto. “He is on the centre-left, social democratic party, but he is always very keen on two specific dimensions. The first is the social dimension of democracy, redistribution, support of the poor and that comes from his early activism as a young Catholic during the last phase of the dictatorship. And the second, of course, is Catholicism.”A practising Catholic, Guterres stood out in the Socialist Party, whose early membership included many secular activists and former Marxists.
他的信念在1997年受到考验,当时他所属的政党提出合法化堕胎。他面临来自本党议员的内部压力,要求他支持该法律,但古特雷斯坚持立场并予以拒绝。但这并不是结束。
His beliefs were put to the test in 1997 when his own party proposed to legalise abortion. He faced internal pressure from his own MPs to support the law, but Guterres held firm and refused. But that was not the end of it.
该问题次年提交全民公决,古特雷斯允许社会党议员自由投票。尽管他的党支持该改革,但总理表示他个人反对,并未参与竞选活动。该提案被以微弱差距否决,但投票率低。
The issue went to a referendum the following year, and Guterres allowed socialist MPs a free vote. Although his party backed the reform, the prime minister said he personally opposed it and stayed out of the campaign. The proposal was narrowly rejected, but turnout was low.
“失败的原因是中左翼主要政党没有动员起来,而这是因为古特雷斯是该党的领导人,”科斯塔·平托解释道。
“It failed because the main party of the centre-left did not mobilise and that's because Guterres was the leader of the party,” Costa Pinto explained.
葡萄牙最终在2007年第二次全民公决后合法化堕胎,这发生在古特雷斯离职很久之后。
Portugal finally legalised abortion after a second referendum in 2007, long after Guterres had left office.
1998年初,古特雷斯遭遇深重个人损失。他的妻子路易莎多年患有重病,尽管曾接受肝脏移植,但在病情严重复发后去世。她一直在伦敦一家诊所接受治疗。
In early 1998, Guterres suffered a profound personal loss. His wife Luisa, who had been gravely ill for years, died after a serious relapse despite having undergone a liver transplant. She had been receiving treatment at a clinic in London.
他政府面临的另一个紧迫社会问题是毒品。虽然独裁政权曾让葡萄牙与世界隔绝,但1974年革命后,毒品大量涌入。
Another pressing social issue for his government was drugs. While the dictatorship had kept Portugal closed to the world, narcotics came flooding in after the 1974 revolution.
“每个人都想尝试一些随自由而来的新事物,”戈劳阿对半岛电视台说。他负责运营一个戒毒诊所网络。
“Everybody wanted to experiment with something new that came with freedom,” Goulao, who ran a network of addiction clinics, told Al Jazeera.
“海洛因变得非常流行,并在我们社会的所有社会群体中迅速传播。[然后]在1980年代初,艾滋病出现,使情况变得更加复杂。”到1990年代,估计有1%的人口对海洛因上瘾,该国在欧洲联盟中成为注射毒品人群中HIV感染率最高的国家之一。1998年,古特雷斯任命古拉奥加入一个专家小组,以探讨解决这一危机的方案。
“Heroin became very popular and spread rapidly among all the social groups in our society. [Then] in the beginning of the 1980s, AIDS came along to complicate things.”By the 1990s, an estimated one percent of the population was hooked on heroin and the country had one of the highest rates of HIV infection among people who injected drugs in the European Union. In 1998, Guterres appointed Goulao to an expert panel exploring solutions to that crisis.
“重要的是要说,古特雷斯对这一领域投入了大量关注,”古拉奥回忆道。
“It`s important to say that Guterres paid a lot of attention to this area,” Goulao recalled.
“我们之间有一定的亲近感,因为他的姐姐是一名精神科医生,当时曾在这一领域工作。因此,我们有了一条直接的渠道来传达我们的担忧,而他也非常关注,”他解释道。
“We had some proximity because his sister was a psychiatrist who used to work in this area at the time. So we had a direct line to pass along our concerns, and he was very attentive,” he explained.
该小组建议非刑事化:毒贩仍然是罪犯,但抓捕他们的客户不再是警方的优先事项。相反,口袋里带着毒品的人会被送到小组面前,接受警告,了解毒品的危害,并在必要时被联系到卫生服务机构,之后他们就可以自由离开。目标是停止惩罚吸毒者,停止在偶尔使用毒品的人身上浪费资源。
The panel recommended decriminalisation: drug dealers remained criminals, but catching their clientele was no longer a priority for police. Instead, someone with a dose in their pocket would be sent before a panel that warned them of the dangers and connected them with health services if necessary, after which they were free to leave. The goal was to stop punishing addicts and to stop wasting resources on casual consumers.
这些政策变化奏效了。尽管有人担心葡萄牙会成为吸引全球吸毒者的毒品窝点,但2001年改革后,严重吸毒者人数、致命过量案例和HIV感染人数急剧下降。2000年,吸毒人群中的新年度HIV感染病例为907例;到2008年,这一数字下降至267例。
The policy changes worked. Despite fears that Portugal would become a drug den attracting addicts worldwide, the number of serious addicts, fatal overdoses and HIV infections dropped dramatically after the reforms of 2001. The number of new annual HIV infections among drug users fell from 907 in 2000 to 267 by 2008.
“他非常和善,是个很好的倾听者,而且非常容易接近和讨论问题,”古拉奥谈到古特雷斯的风格时说道,并指出,联合国秘书长在寻求共识的过程中,不得不面对艰难的决定,并广泛吸纳各方建议。但这种包容性的方法并不总是奏效。
“Hes very nice and a good listener and he is very easy to approach and to discuss issues with,” Goulao said of Guterress style, noting how the UN chief has faced difficult decisions and had to take in advice from a broad group while trying to find consensus. But this accommodating approach has not always worked.
佩德罗·费拉兹·达科斯塔在当时担任葡萄牙工业联合会(CIP)主席时,描述古特雷斯具有“智慧和快速思考”,但指出他建立共识的决心有时会产生不利影响。
Pedro Ferraz da Costa, who headed the Confederation of Portuguese Industry (CIP) at the time, described Guterres as having “intelligence and quick thinking,” but noted how his determination to build consensus was sometimes detrimental.
“他喜欢让所有人都喜欢他,以至于这使他几乎无法做出决定,”费拉兹·达科斯塔在2016年对葡萄牙SIC Noticias电视台表示。“政府首脑要管理一个国家,就必须做出一些让某些人满意、让某些人不满意的决定,有时甚至几乎没有人会满意。”不过,古特雷斯在国际舞台上变得越来越从容。2000年上半年,葡萄牙担任欧盟轮值主席国,使其总理获得了突出的外交角色。古特雷斯因其在竞争性政府之间调解以及在紧张谈判中保持镇定的能力而受到重视。
“He likes everyone to like him so much that it makes it impossible for him to make decisions,” Ferraz da Costa told TV channel SIC Noticias in 2016. “A head of government, to manage a country, has to make decisions that please some and displease others and sometimes that pleases almost no one.”Still, Guterres was growing increasingly comfortable on the international stage. In the first half of 2000, Portugal held the rotating presidency of the European Union, giving its prime minister a prominent diplomatic role. Guterres was valued for his ability to mediate among competing governments and to remain composed during tense negotiations.
“在欧洲理事会上,我记得雅克·希拉克和赫尔穆特·科尔在某个问题上发生冲突,”曾担任古特雷斯欧洲事务秘书的葡萄牙外交官弗朗西斯科·塞伊克斯·达科斯塔对《卫报》表示。
“At the European Council, I remember a conflict between Jacques Chirac and Helmut Kohl over one issue,” Francisco Seixas da Costa, a Portuguese diplomat who served as Guterres`s European affairs secretary, told the Guardian.
“古特雷斯请求发言。我当时坐在他旁边;我担心这可能太天真了。但他站出来发言,提出了一项兼顾双方利益的方案,结果很成功。奏效了。他具有出色的协调能力,能够建立联系和桥梁。”2000年底,欧盟领导人正在就将成员国从15国扩大到最多27国的规则进行谈判。核心问题是如何在一个更大的集团中分配投票权。主要大国——英国、法国、德国、意大利和西班牙——希望在欧盟理事会中拥有更大的影响力,而较小的国家则担心自己会被边缘化,沦为旁观者。
“Guterres asked for the floor. I was sitting next to him; I was afraid it might be naive. But he took the floor and made a proposal that covered both their interests and it was a success. It worked. He had a fantastic capacity to moderate and create links and bridges.”In late 2000, EU leaders were negotiating rules for expanding the bloc from 15 members to as many as 27. The central question was how to distribute voting power in a much larger bloc. The major powers — Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain — wanted greater weight in the EU Council, while smaller countries feared they would be reduced to bystanders.
古特雷斯称最初的提议为“制度性政变”,并与比利时及其他小国一起抵制该提议——施加了压力,最终促成了妥协。
Guterres called the initial proposal an “institutional coup d`etat” and joined Belgium and other small states in resisting it — adding pressure that led to a compromise.
然而,在国内,他的少数派政府正面临困境,2001年12月,社会党在地方选举中遭遇重大挫折。古特雷斯接受了责任,在他第二个任期刚过两年多时,他辞职以防止国家陷入他所说的“政治泥沼”。
At home, however, his minority government was struggling, and in December 2001 the socialists suffered major setbacks in local elections. Guterres accepted the blame and a little over two years into his second term, he resigned to prevent the country from falling into what he called a “political swamp”.
根据科斯塔·平托的说法,古特雷斯辞职部分原因在于他的政府处于如此弱势的地位,以至于他将被迫妥协自己的原则,例如,批准他不同意的紧缩措施。尽管如此,他在危机时刻被视为放弃职责,并受到社会党的严厉批评。
According to Costa Pinto, Guterres resigned partly because his government was in such a weak position that he would have been forced to compromise his principles, for example, by greenlighting austerity measures he disagreed with. Still, he was seen as abandoning his post in a time of need and was harshly criticised by the socialists.
“这位历史学家补充道:‘他还被指责辞职[是因为]他在已经困难的财政情况下,不以为荣地领导国家。’”离职后,古特雷斯悄然恢复了志愿者工作,每周多次在里斯本贫困社区Quinta do Mocho免费教授数学课。这位前总理回避宣传,拒绝让记者为他或他的学生拍照。“这就是他的为人,”古拉奥谈到古特雷斯的私人志愿工作时说。
“He was also accused of resigning [because] he was not proud to lead the country in an already difficult financial situation,” the historian added. After leaving office, Guterres quietly resumed volunteering, teaching free maths lessons several times a week in the deprived Lisbon neighbourhood of Quinta do Mocho. The former PM avoided publicity, refusing to allow reporters to photograph him or his pupils. “Thats the kind of person he is,” Goulao said about Guterress private volunteerism.
“他非常关注社会问题。他是天主教徒,并且很好地践行了他信仰的要求。”2001年,古特雷斯再婚,这次是与前文化国务秘书卡塔琳娜·瓦兹·平托。
“Hes very involved in social issues. Hes Catholic and he practises the demands of his beliefs very well.”In 2001, Guterres remarried, this time to Catarina Vaz Pinto, a former secretary of state for culture.
与此同时,古特雷斯对难民的困境有着浓厚兴趣,正在考虑政治生涯之后该做什么时,国际舞台向他招手。时任联合国秘书长科菲·安南在2005年提名古特雷斯成为下一任联合国难民事务高级专员(UNHCR)。他作为葡萄牙难民委员会创始人的经历使他在其他候选人中脱颖而出,同年6月他首次担任联合国职务。四天后,他来到乌干达一处由主抵抗军导致流离失所的难民营,这是他无数次前往全球热点地区实地考察的第一站。
Meanwhile, with a keen interest in the plight of refugees, Guterres was considering what to do after his political career when the international stage beckoned. Kofi Annan, the then-UN secretary-general, nominated Guterres to become the next UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in 2005. His experience as the founder of the Portuguese Refugee Council put him ahead of the other candidates and in June of that year he took on his first UN posting. Four days later, he was at a camp for refugees displaced by the Lord`s Resistance Army in Uganda, the first of countless field trips to hotspots around the globe.
他担任该职务直至2015年底,这段经历让古特雷斯认识到,难民保护很少能脱离政治介入而存在。他不得不反复为逃离暴力的人们辩护,同时劝说政府——往往面临巨大的国内压力——强制遣返既违法又不切实际。就在他在难民署任期即将结束之际,这种紧张关系在肯尼亚摆在他面前。
The job, which he held until the end of 2015, would show Guterres that refugee protection rarely existed without political involvement. He repeatedly had to defend people who were fleeing violence while also persuading governments — often under intense domestic pressure — that forced returns were unlawful and impractical. Just before the end of his tenure at UNHCR, that tension confronted him in Kenya.
2015年4月3日清晨,四名持枪男子走进位于肯尼亚东部的加里萨大学学院校园,开枪扫射,他们逐栋搜查,杀害被认定为基督徒的学生。在肯军将他们逼入一栋女生宿舍并击毙之前,他们杀害了148人。
Early on April 3, 2015, four armed men stepped onto the campus of Garissa University College in eastern Kenya and opened fire, going from building to building and killing students they identified as Christians. They killed 148 people before Kenyan soldiers cornered and killed them in a female dormitory.

这场屠杀之后,肯尼亚当局将位于该国东北部的大型达达布难民营列为安全威胁。他们声称,青年党武装组织正利用该难民营招募人员并策划袭击。除非联合国帮助关闭达达布,否则肯尼亚官员威胁要自行关闭该营地,并将其索马里居民遣返回他们因战争而逃离的国家。
Following the bloodbath, Kenyan authorities singled out Dadaab refugee camp, a large complex in the country`s northeast, as a security threat. They claimed that the al-Shabaab armed group was using the camps to recruit and plan attacks. Unless the UN helped close Dadaab, Kenyan officials were threatening to shut it down themselves and return its Somali residents to the country they had fled because of war.
作为难民署负责人,古特雷斯负责保护达达布的索马里难民,并确保任何返回索马里的行为都是自愿且安全的。他从日内瓦总部乘飞机前往摩加迪沙会见索马里总统,随后飞往内罗毕与肯方对话商谈。他们达成共识,保持该营地开放。
As the UN refugee chief, Guterres was responsible for protecting the Somali refugees in Dadaab and ensuring that any return to Somalia was voluntary and safe. He boarded a plane from his headquarters in Geneva to Mogadishu to meet the Somali president before flying to Nairobi to speak with his Kenyan counterpart. They reached an understanding to keep the camp open.
在难民署内部,这位前葡萄牙总理推行改革,以提升该组织的应对能力和效率,同时缩减其在日内瓦的存在。该组织仍然实现了增长,古特雷斯说服捐助方提供更多资金,同时派遣工作人员奔赴一线。通过全球保护集群,难民署将其保护对象范围扩大到包括逃离自然灾害的人群。
Internally, at UNHCR, the former Portuguese premier implemented reforms to improve the organisation`s response capacity and efficiency, while reducing its presence in Geneva. The organisation still managed to grow and Guterres persuaded donors to part with more funding while he dispatched staffers into the field. Through the Global Protection Cluster, the UNHCR broadened the scope of those under its care to include those escaping natural disasters.
“联合国难民事务专员的国际生涯并非偶然开始的。”科斯塔·平托说。
“It's not by coincidence that he started an international career as commissioner for the refugees of the United Nations,” Costa Pinto said.
古特雷斯的努力与教皇方济各高度一致,教皇方济各是天主教会的改革派领袖,也是难民的坚定倡导者。
Guterres`s efforts were closely aligned with Pope Francis, the reformist head of the Catholic Church and a strong advocate for refugees.
“我认为,正是在这里,他的政治志向得到了清晰体现:人道主义、和平、冲突解决,当然,这与政治天主教紧密相连。实际上,首先,这主导了他的职业生涯。”这种承诺也体现在与他共事的人眼中。2012年,他任命好莱坞女演员安吉丽娜·朱莉为特使,以提高人们对人道主义危机的认识。
“That`s where, I think, his vocation as a politician is clearly represented: humanism, peace, conflict resolution and of course, this is very much connected with political Catholicism. Actually, firstly, that dominates his career.”That commitment was also evident to those who worked with him. In 2012, he appointed Hollywood actress Angelina Jolie as a special envoy to raise awareness of humanitarian crises.
“我经常和他在一线相处,不仅能看到他对难民及其家人的同情,还能看到他为联合国保护这些人而不懈奋斗的精神。”朱莉在2016年接受SIC采访时说。
“I spend a lot of time with him on the ground and have been able to see not only his compassion for refugees and their families, but also how tirelessly he fights on behalf of the UN to protect these people,” Jolie told SIC in a 2016 interview.
“古特雷斯所做的远超人们的想象。他在承诺方面毫不松懈。”她补充道。
“Guterres does much more than meets the eye. He is relentless in his commitment," she added.
但他也曾面临批评。2015年,欧洲正陷入数十年来最大的难民潮,三岁的叙利亚男孩艾伦·库尔迪的尸体被冲上了土耳其海滩。这张照片成为一场危机的象征——该危机充斥着敌对的边境卫兵、肮脏的帐篷城和混乱的接待中心。批评者认为,联合国体系未能推动欧洲政府分担责任、为难民开辟安全通道。
But he has also faced criticism. In 2015, as Europe struggled with its largest refugee influx in decades, the body of three-year-old Syrian Alan Kurdi washed up on a Turkish beach. The image became a symbol of a crisis marked by hostile border guards, squalid tent cities and chaotic reception centres. Critics argued that the UN system had failed to push European governments to share responsibility and create safe routes for refugees.
然而,古特雷斯公开要求采取更为雄心勃勃的应对措施。他呼吁欧盟实施强制性重新安置计划,以容纳多达20万难民,加大对希腊的支持,并扩大重新安置和人道主义项目。
Guterres, however, was publicly demanding a far more ambitious response. He called for a mandatory EU relocation programme for up to 200,000 refugees, greater support for Greece and expanded resettlement and humanitarian programmes.
在担任联合国难民署署长访问华盛顿特区期间,古特雷斯据称会利用空闲时间浏览《政治与散文》及其他当地书店。
During his visits to Washington, DC, as the head of UNHCR, Guterres reportedly spent his spare time perusing Politics & Prose and other local bookshops.
前葡萄牙财政部长吉列尔梅·德·奥利维拉·马丁斯曾形容古特雷斯拥有“无可匹敌的世界历史知识”,古特雷斯因此以喜欢就各种话题进行交谈的知识分子形象而闻名——从古希腊和中东文化到歌剧和地理。他还被认为有甜食癖好,尤其钟爱葡萄牙蛋挞,据报道他随身携带这种点心乘坐官方航班。
Described by former Portuguese Finance Minister Guilherme de Oliveira Martins as possessing an “unbeatable knowledge of world history”, Guterres has developed a reputation as an intellectual who enjoys conversations on a variety of topics — from ancient Greece and Middle Eastern culture to opera and geography. He is also said to have a sweet tooth, with a particular weakness for Portuguese custard tarts, which he reportedly took with him onboard official flights.
回国后,社会党希望古特雷斯再次参选国家职务,这次是竞选总统,但他不感兴趣。
Back home, the Socialist Party wanted Guterres to run for national office again, this time as president, but he wasn`t interested.
随后,2015年12月,葡萄牙政府收到联合国的一封信,询问是否有意提名一位候选人以接任即将卸任的秘书长潘基文。联合国理想情况下建议,候选人应来自东欧的女性。
Then, in December 2015, the Portuguese government received a letter from the UN, asking if it was interested in presenting a candidate to succeed the outgoing Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Ideally, the UN advised, the candidate would be a woman from Eastern Europe.
葡萄牙政府未采纳此建议,而是提名古特雷斯为其候选人,强调他曾担任葡萄牙政府首脑的经历、他代表东帝汶进行的外交工作,以及他在联合国难民署十年领导期间处理的众多危机。回国后,古特雷斯获得了两党的支持。
Portugal ignored the advice and presented Guterres as its candidate instead, emphasising his experience as head of the Portuguese government, his diplomacy on behalf of East Timor and his handling of many crises during his decade-long leadership of UNHCR. Back home, Guterres enjoyed bipartisan backing.
“在葡萄牙,中右翼和中左翼政党在其政治家申请重要国际职位时总是相互支持,”科斯塔·平托解释道。
“In Portugal, the centre-right and the centre-left always support each other when their politicians apply to major international positions,” explained Costa Pinto.
“这一直是主要两党的旧政策,也是小国的典型政策:他们希望在国际层面拥有一个不太意识形态化的形象。”最终,古特雷斯的个人魅力和幽默感,以及他被视为既能得到莫斯科也能得到华盛顿合作的人选的形象,使他成为该职位的领跑者。2016年10月13日,时年67岁的他获得联合国大会批准,接任潘基文。
“Its an old policy of the main two parties [and] the typical policy of a small country: one wants to have a not very ideological profile in international terms.”In the end, Guterress personal charm and humour, and because he was seen as someone both Moscow and Washington could work with, made him the frontrunner for the position. On October 13, 2016, aged 67, he was approved by the UN General Assembly to succeed Ban Ki-moon.
就任联合国秘书长后,古特雷斯承诺“为和平开展外交行动的激增”。但实际上,这远比说起来容易做起来难。
On taking the reins as UN Secretary-General, Guterres pledged “a surge in diplomacy for peace”. In practice, of course, this was far easier said than done.
与联合国难民署一样,古特雷斯在担任联合国秘书长期间推行了制度性改革,其早期工作深受叙利亚和也门长期战争、缅甸罗兴亚危机、利比亚冲突重燃、特朗普第一个总统任期的反多边主义做法以及疫情的影响。然而,安理会的分歧限制了他在处理最大冲突时所能取得的成就。
Like at the UNHCR, Guterres implemented institutional reforms as UN chief and his early years were shaped by protracted wars in Syria and Yemen, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar, the renewed conflict in Libya, the anti-multilateralist approach of Donald Trump`s first presidential term and the pandemic. Security Council divisions, however, limited what he could achieve when it came to the biggest conflicts.

随后,2022年2月24日,乌克兰人和俄罗斯人醒来时得知,他们的国家正陷入全面战争。俄罗斯坦克冲过了乌克兰的东部边境,而惊恐的平民则寻求在基辅地铁中避难。
Then, on February 24, 2022, Ukrainians and Russians awoke to news that their countries were in a full-scale war. Russian tanks rolled over Ukraines eastern frontier while terrified civilians sought shelter in Kyivs Metro.
联合国安理会召开会议,古特雷斯谴责了这次入侵。“以人类之名,请把你们的部队撤回俄罗斯,”他恳请普京总统,但普京无视了这一请求。
The UN Security Council convened and Guterres condemned the invasion. “In the name of humanity, bring your troops back to Russia,” he implored President Vladimir Putin, who ignored the plea.
4月26日,古特雷斯与普京会面,讨论从被围困地区(如马里乌波尔市)撤离的路线。当周晚些时候,他又会见了乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。
On April 26 , Guterres met with Putin to discuss evacuation routes from besieged areas, such as the city of Mariupol, and later that week he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
古特雷斯的外交努力取得了一些初步成果。2022年,他促成了黑海谷物协议,使得乌克兰船只能够安全通行,从该国南部港口运输谷物出口,同时也允许俄罗斯船只运输食品和肥料。
Guterress diplomacy saw some initial success. In 2022, he brokered the Black Sea grain deal, enabling the safe passage of Ukrainian ships carrying grain exports from the countrys southern ports, as well as Russian vessels carrying food and fertiliser.
但在这些人道主义倡议之外,他在处理战争中棘手的政治问题上表现得不够成功。2024年,泽连斯基拒绝了古特雷斯计划对基辅的访问,原因是联合国秘书长之前曾参加了在俄罗斯喀山举行的金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)峰会,期间他与普京握手并呼吁实现“公正和平”。
But beyond these humanitarian initiatives, hes been less successful in handling the wars thorny politics. In 2024, Zelenskyy spurned Guterress planned visit to Kyiv after the UN chief attended the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in Kazan, Russia, where he shook Putins hand and called for a “just peace”.
到此时,普京因涉嫌战争罪被国际刑事法院通缉。古特雷斯决定参加峰会并会见普京的决定,引来了乌克兰官员、欧洲领导人和人权组织的强烈批评。
By this point, Putin was wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes. Guterres`s decision to attend the summit and meet Putin drew sharp criticism from Ukrainian officials, European leaders and human rights groups.
随后,2023年10月7日,另一场冲突爆发,哈马斯领导的武装分子对以色列发动突袭,造成超过1100名以色列人和外国人死亡,其中包括音乐节上数百名参加者。以色列的回应是对加沙进行猛烈轰炸,包括对医院、难民营和被指定的“安全区”的袭击。到2025年初,估计有7.5万巴勒斯坦人死于暴力冲突,联合国独立调查委员会去年得出结论,认为以色列在加沙犯下种族灭绝罪,以色列对此予以否认。
Then, on October 7, 2023, another conflict erupted as Hamas-led fighters launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing more than 1,100 Israelis and foreign nationals, including hundreds of revellers at a music festival. The Israeli response was a heavy bombardment of Gaza, including attacks on hospitals, refugee camps and designated “safe zones”. An estimated 75,000 Palestinians had been violently killed by early 2025 and the UN`s independent Commission of Inquiry concluded last year that Israel had committed genocide in Gaza, a finding Israel rejects.
初次袭击两周后,古特雷斯因表示10月7日的事件“并非真空中发生”——指的是对加沙的封锁和对西岸的持续占领——并呼吁停火,而遭到以色列领导人的强烈谴责。古特雷斯随后澄清了他的言论,强调“巴勒斯坦人民的不满不能成为哈马斯令人震惊袭击的正当理由”,并继续推动停火。
Two weeks after the initial attack, Guterres drew sharp condemnation from Israeli leaders for saying October 7th “did not happen in a vacuum” – referring to the blockade of Gaza and the ongoing occupation of the West Bank – and calling for a ceasefire. Guterres clarified his remarks, stressing that “the grievances of the Palestinian people cannot justify the appalling attacks by Hamas,” as he kept pushing for a ceasefire.
2023年12月6日,古特雷斯援引《联合国宪章》中鲜少使用的第99条,向联合国15个成员国组成的安理会通报“可能加剧对维护国际和平与安全现有威胁的任何问题”,呼吁其成员“避免加沙发生人道主义灾难”,并施压要求停火。两天后,美国否决了该决议。
On December 6, 2023, Guterres invoked the rarely used Article 99 of the UN Charter, bringing to the attention of the UN`s 15-member Security Council “any issue that may aggravate existing threats to the maintenance of international peace and security”, calling on its members to “avert a humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza and press for a ceasefire. Two days later, the United States vetoed the resolution.
2024年10月,以色列宣布古特雷斯为“不受欢迎的人”,禁止他进入该国,理由是指控他未能“对伊朗对以色列的导弹攻击作出明确谴责”。这进一步加深了以色列与联合国之间的裂痕,限制了他与以色列领导人接触的能力。
In October 2024, Israel declared Guterres persona non grata, barring him from the country after accusing him of failing to “unequivocally condemn” Iran`s missile attack on Israel. This deepened the rift between Israel and the UN, limiting his ability to engage with Israeli leaders.
古特雷斯在加沙和乌克兰这两个他任期内的主要冲突中未能取得显著进展。部分原因在于工作本身的自然限制:既要坚持国际法的承诺,又要在全球大国之间保持可信的调停者身份。如果没有冲突各方的合作和大国的支持,他无法强加解决方案。
So Guterres has failed to make significant progress in Gaza or Ukraine, two of the major conflicts of his tenure. Part of that is due to the natural constraints of the job, having to maintain a commitment to international law while remaining a credible broker between global powers. He cannot impose settlements without the cooperation of the parties involved and the backing of major powers.
安理会常因俄罗斯、中国和西方大国的利益竞争而分裂,联合国的工作也因一些政府 — — 包括特朗普时期的美国 — — 挑战多边机构或质疑国际法律机构的权威而变得复杂。
The Security Council is often divided by the competing interests of Russia, China and the Western powers, and the UN`s work has been complicated by governments — including the United States under Trump — that have challenged multilateral institutions or disputed the authority of international legal bodies.
2021年国际危机组织的一项评估发现,一些参与中东调解的官员认为古特雷斯不愿在风险和平倡议上动用个人政治资本。该评估反映了他在加沙战争和乌克兰冲突之前的做法,但或许可以解释他为何倾向于依赖特使、人道主义倡导和安静外交,而不是高风险的个人调停。
A 2021 International Crisis Group assessment found that some officials involved in Middle East mediation viewed Guterres as reluctant to expend his personal political capital on risky peace initiatives. The assessment reflected his approach before the Gaza war and the invasion of Ukraine, but it perhaps explains his style of relying on envoys, humanitarian advocacy and quiet diplomacy rather than high-stakes personal mediation.
也有人认为,虽然他对全球危机保持高度关注,但有时会过度依赖世界领导人对事件的解读。例如,在埃塞俄比亚的提格雷战争期间,他公开转达了总理阿比·艾哈迈德的保证,称厄立特里亚军队未进入提格雷领土,除了一个有争议的边境地区。阿比后来承认,厄立特里亚军队确实进入了提格雷。
Others say that while he takes a keen interest in crises worldwide, he can rely too much on world leadersinterpretation of events. During Ethiopias Tigray war, for instance, he publicly relayed Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed`s assurance that Eritrean troops had not entered Tigrayan territory, apart from a disputed border area. Abiy later acknowledged that Eritrean forces had entered Tigray.
古特雷斯也一直对部署传统的联合国蓝盔行动持谨慎态度,质疑它们在没有可行的政治进程和足够安全保障的情况下能否有效运作。这种谨慎态度在海地表现得尤为明显。面对帮派在太子港的控制日益加强,古特雷斯被要求考虑更广泛的联合国选项,但他排除了部署传统蓝盔任务的可能性。相反,他提出让联合国资助并运营一个后勤办公室,以支持由肯尼亚领导的多国部队,同时加强联合国的政治使命,并向海地警察提供有限的援助。
Guterres has also been cautious about deploying traditional UN Blue Helmet missions, questioning whether they can operate effectively without a viable political process and sufficient security. That caution was visible in Haiti. Asked to consider a wider range of UN options as gangs tightened their grip on Port-au-Prince, Guterres ruled out deploying a conventional Blue Helmet mission. Instead, he proposed that the UN fund and operate a logistics office to support the Kenyan-led multinational force while strengthening the UNs political mission and providing limited assistance to Haitis police.
“在古特雷斯上任之前,联合国维和行动一直在稳步扩张,”危机组织的联合国专家丹尼尔·福尔蒂解释道。
“Before Guterres came to office, there had been a steady expansion of UN peacekeeping,” explained Daniel Forti, a UN specialist at Crisis Group.
“有一个令人担忧的趋势,即一些任务——包括之前部署到索马里的任务,以及目前在中非共和国和刚果民主共和国的任务——被要求在没有和平可守的地区强加和平。” “古特雷斯对这种做法持极度怀疑态度,并试图鼓励其他人承担这些责任,并对联合国蓝盔在某些类型冲突中实际上能做什么采取更为狭隘的解释,”他补充道。
“There was a worrying trend that a number of missions – including previous ones deployed to Somalia and the current one in the Central African Republic and the DRC – were being asked to impose peace in places where there was no peace to keep.”“Guterres was incredibly sceptical of this type of approach and sought to encourage others to take on those responsibilities and have a much narrower interpretation of what UN Blue Helmets can actually do in certain types of conflicts,” he added.
谈到实际的和平建设时,古特雷斯更倾向于让联合国避免代表当地人做决定,而是将权力下放给地区行为体。在埃塞俄比亚的案例中,他希望非盟(AU)发挥更突出的作用,并呼吁为非盟的努力提供更多资金。
When it comes to actual peace-making, Guterres prefers the UN to refrain from taking decisions on behalf of locals and instead delegates to regional players. In the case of Ethiopia, he wanted the African Union (AU) to take a more prominent role and called for more funding for AU efforts.
他不愿更全面地参与可能源于个人经历。2017年,秘书长参与了塞浦路斯统一谈判,但谈判破裂,令他“明显沮丧”。同样,2019年,他访问利比亚试图促使交战双方坐到谈判桌前,但反政府武装却对的黎波里发动了进攻。离开该国之前,古特雷斯表示利比亚让他感到“心情沉重”。根据福蒂的说法,这些经历也可能让他变得警惕。
His reluctance to engage more fully may stem from personal experience. In 2017, the secretary-general took part in Cyprus reunification talks that collapsed, leaving him “visibly despondent.”Likewise, in 2019, he visited Libya to try to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table, only for rebels to mount an offensive on Tripoli. Before leaving the country, Guterres said Libya left him with “a heavy heart”. According to Forti, these experiences may have also left him wary.
“起初,当他上任时,他强调了一个非常强硬的冲突预防议程,”福蒂说。
“At first, when he came into office, he emphasised a very strong agenda on conflict prevention,” Forti said.
“但在几次古特雷斯试图亲自参与和平进程的尝试之后,包括在塞浦路斯,他很快就吃了亏,并且没有表现出长期坚持政治进程的意愿。”任何快速取胜或决定性结果的希望都被证明更难实现。
“But after a few instances where Guterres tried to get personally involved in peace-making efforts, including in Cyprus, he got burned quite quickly and didn`t show an inclination to persevere with political processes over a long period of time.”Any hope of quick wins or decisive outcomes proved a lot harder.
“从那时起,他表现出的直接参与意愿就越来越低,”福蒂补充道。
“From that moment, he`s shown less and less inclination to be directly involved,” Forti added.
与其寻找冲突的解决方案,他说,古特雷斯反而把注意力放在人道主义救援上,确保救命援助能够到达平民手中。
Rather than finding solutions to conflicts, he says, Guterres instead focuses on humanitarian relief, ensuring lifesaving assistance reaches civilians.
古特雷斯本人也承认,世界和平是“西西弗斯式的任务”,指的是希腊神话中被诅咒永远推石头上山、石头又滚落下来的国王。也许正是从这个神话中汲取了教训,古特雷斯将部分精力投入到他认为自己能够发挥更大作用的领域—— notably,气候危机。
Guterres himself has admitted that world peace is “a Sisyphean task”, referring to the mythical Greek king cursed to keep pushing a boulder up a hill only for it to roll back down again. Perhaps drawing a lesson from that, Guterres has channelled some of his energy into areas where he felt he could make more of a difference – notably, the climate crisis.
“全人类有一半正处于洪水、干旱、极端风暴和野火的危险区域,”他在2022年对世界领导人说。“没有一个国家能够幸免。然而我们仍在继续助长我们对化石燃料的依赖。”
“Half of humanity is in the danger zone from floods, droughts, extreme storms and wildfires,” he told world leaders in 2022. “No nation is immune. Yet we continue to feed our fossil fuel addiction.”
“我们有选择——集体行动或集体自杀。这掌握在我们自己手中。”34岁的巴西气候活动家帕洛玛·科斯塔表示,她曾担任古特雷斯2020年成立的青年气候变化咨询小组成员,她说秘书长认为全球变暖是社会面临的重大问题,并且积极支持由青年领导的、为争取自身未来而斗争的运动。
“We have a choice – collective action or collective suicide. It is in our hands.”Paloma Costa, a 34-year-old Brazilian climate activist who served on Guterres`s 2020 inaugural Youth Advisory Group on Climate Change, said the secretary-general sees global warming as a major problem facing society and has actively supported youth-led movements fighting for their future.
“他一直致力于关注[问题],倾听那些为我们承担这一议程的年轻人,他们坚决反对正在毁灭我们共同环境的决定,并大声表达自己的声音。” 该咨询小组的职责包括收集来自全球年轻人的报告和诉求,并向古特雷斯进行汇总。
“He has been very committed to paying attention to the [problem], to listening to young people who have been taking on this agenda for ourselves and putting up our voices strongly against decisions that are destroying our common environment.”The advisory group`s responsibilities included compiling reports and demands from young people across the globe and summarising them for Guterres.
“他在全球层面施加了压力,因为长期以来,气候讨论进展甚微,”科斯塔说。
“He made sure there was pressure on the global level because for a long time, the climate discussions were not advancing very much,” Costa said.
通过这样做,古特雷斯强调,全球南方的贫穷和欠发达国家在环境灾难中受到的影响最大,而富裕国家必须承担起应有的责任。他呼吁对化石燃料行业征收意外之财税,并在2022年对全球代表表示:“污染者必须付出代价。”他还赞扬了应对损失和损害基金(FRLD)的设立,该基金是在2022年气候大会上达成的协议,旨在帮助脆弱国家应对气候紧急情况。但这些举措尚未达到所需规模的实施,且FRLD资金严重不足。
In doing so, Guterres has emphasised that poorer, underdeveloped nations in the Global South suffer the most from environmental catastrophes and that wealthier countries must take on their fair share of the responsibility. He has called for windfall taxes on the fossil fuel industry, telling global delegates in 2022 that “polluters must pay”. He also praised the establishment of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), agreed to at a 2022 climate conference, to help vulnerable countries cope with climate emergencies. But these initiatives have yet to be applied at the scale needed and the FRLD remains severely underfunded.
“尽管他并不总是能立即给出答案,但我始终感到被接纳,因为他总是确保我们被理解和重视,并且总会有后续跟进,让我们知道如果某件事无法解决,原因是什么,”科斯塔说。
“Even though he didn`t always have an immediate answer, I always felt embraced because he always made sure we were understood and taken seriously, and there was always a follow-up to let us know if something could not be resolved, why it could not be resolved,” Costa said.
然而,鉴于他一贯的非对抗性方式,古特雷斯尚未明确点名具体哪些国家或政党对地球变暖负有不当责任。
Consistent with his non-confrontational approach, however, Guterres has stopped short of naming specific parties or countries unduly responsible for the warming planet.
古特雷斯还警告人工智能(AI)的无限制发展。自2023年以来,他一直致力于将AI治理作为联合国的核心议题,敦促各国政府制定国际防护措施,并赋予发展中国家在塑造技术方面更大的发言权。他还主张对致命自主武器实施具有法律约束力的禁令。
Guterres has also warned against the unchecked development of artificial intelligence (AI). Since 2023, he has sought to make AI governance a central UN concern, pressing governments to develop international safeguards and give developing countries a greater voice in shaping the technology. He has also called for a legally binding ban on lethal autonomous weapons.

7月,他警告称,人工智能可能成为人类最大的机遇之一 — — 也可能成为人类最大的危险之一 — — 这取决于政府和科技公司是否同意有效地对其进行治理。
In July, he warned that AI could become one of humanity`s greatest opportunities — or one of its greatest dangers — depending on whether governments and technology firms agree to govern it effectively.
随着他第二个五年任期的联合国秘书长职务将于12月31日结束,世界将如何评价古特雷斯的遗产?他是否会因其处理急性危机而被铭记,还是因其气候倡导而被铭记?
With his second five-year term as UN chief ending on December 31, how will the world see Guterres`s legacy in the years to come? Will he be remembered for his handling of acute crises or for his climate advocacy?
“联合国的相关性近年来确实受到了打击,尤其是当安理会成员没有表现出遵循《联合国宪章》核心原则的兴趣时,”福蒂说。
“The UN`s relevance has certainly taken a hit in recent years, especially when members of the Security Council have not shown interest in following core principles of the Charter,” said Forti.
但这位联合国专家并不认为古特雷斯在同样的情况下表现会比其他人更差。
But the UN specialist doesn`t think Guterres fared worse than others would have under the same circumstances.
“许多秘书长都会面临古特雷斯所面临的一些相同的基本紧张关系,”福蒂说。
“Many secretaries-general would struggle with some of the same fundamental tensions that Guterres has,” Forti said.
虽然他承认古特雷斯在一些国家失去了政治资本,但福蒂仍然认为联合国秘书长留下了积极的遗产。
While he acknowledges that Guterres has lost political capital with some states, Forti still sees a positive legacy for the UN head.
“历史书籍将更加肯定地记住古特雷斯所做的工作 — — 无论是在气候变化议程上,还是在将人工智能议程引入多边领域方面。”福蒂说,古特雷斯一直在“举起灯塔”,强调在技术超越政府控制能力之前,需要国际规则。
“History books will remember Guterres more favourably for the work hes done, both on the climate change agenda and on bringing the artificial intelligence agenda into the multilateral sphere.”Guterres, he says, has been “shining the beacon” on the need for international rules before the technology outruns governments ability to control it.
“这些是极具全球影响力的议题,在政治上并不总是容易让成员国现在或未来去思考,而古特雷斯一直坚持将这些议题列入议程 [将会] 产生比我们目前所能看到的更为积极和长期的影响。”
“These are incredibly global-changing issues that have not always been the easiest politically to corral member states to think about, now or in the future, and the fact that Guterres has been consistent in putting these on the agenda [will have] far more positive and long-term ramifications than we can see right now.”