理查德·奎斯特在曼谷与澳大利亚财政部长吉姆·查默斯坐下来交谈。
Richard Quest sits down with Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers in Bangkok.
存在向上压力，可能会爆发。>> 从我们的角度来看，我们专注于我们在抗击通胀斗争中的部分。你知道，我们已经能够将预算置于比我们上任时更好的状态。但我们知道还有更多工作要做。他们的预算不是我们经济中价格的主要决定因素，但我们可以继续发挥有益的作用。这就是我们的重点。>> 但乔什·莱夫斯实际上是在谈论债券收益率，以及危机是否将爆发。它肯定正在酝酿。但它会爆发吗？
THERE'S UPWARD PRESSURE TO BOIL OVER. >> FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW, WE'RE FOCUSED ON OUR PART OF THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION. YOU KNOW, WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO GET THE BUDGET IN MUCH BETTER CONDITION THAN WHAT IT WAS WHEN WE CAME TO OFFICE. BUT WE KNOW THAT THERE'S MORE WORK TO DO. THEIR BUDGETS AREN'T THE PRIMARY DETERMINANT OF PRICES IN OUR ECONOMY, BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO PLAY A HELPFUL ROLE. AND THAT'S OUR FOCUS. >> BUT THE JOSH LEVS IS REALLY ABOUT BOND YIELDS, AND IT IS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT A CRISIS IS GOING TO ERUPT. IT'S CERTAINLY BREWING. BUT WILL IT BOIL OVER?
看，嗯，不是我们的预期。你知道，我几周前把我们所有的金融和经济监管机构聚集在一起，在澳大利亚一起梳理了所有情景和应急预案，我们看到全球范围内债券收益率出现了相当大的上行压力。你可以看到这一点。在美国、日本，以及澳大利亚其他地区也是如此。但到目前为止，市场的反应一直是有序的嗯反应。>> 在你看来，这就是推动它的原因吗？是美国和某些欧盟国家对赤字的担忧导致的，还是超大规模企业的投资挤占效应？是的。>> 我认为至少是这两个因素，但可能更像是五个因素。我认为这是人们对通胀的预期，因为正在发生的事情——中东的长期战争。你看到美国通胀数据刚刚公布，数字显示由于全球油价上涨，美国出现了通胀激增。这是第一点。其次，你知道，目前全球每个主要发达经济体都存在这样的预期：市场正在计价更多的利率上调。嗯，各国债务状况也引发了担忧。还有超大规模企业的竞争——这些企业正在筹集巨额资本。第五类因素，我认为，是能源技术、人口结构、产业、地缘政治加速变革的背景，以及大家在这里所面临的这种不确定性水平。
LOOK, UM, NOT OUR EXPECTATION. YOU KNOW, I GOT ALL OF OUR FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REGULATORS TOGETHER A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO IN AUSTRALIA TO GO THROUGH ALL OF THE SCENARIOS AND CONTINGENCIES AND, AND WE ARE SEEING SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD PRESSURE ON BOND YIELDS. YOU SEE THAT RIGHT AROUND THE WORLD. US, JAPAN, ELSEWHERE IN AUSTRALIA AS WELL. BUT SO FAR IT'S BEEN AN ORDERLY UM REACTION FROM THE MARKET. >> IN YOUR VIEW IS THAT WHAT'S WHAT IS FEEDING IT. IS IT IS IT JUST THAT THE U.S. AND IN CERTAIN EU COUNTRIES THAT THERE'S GREAT WORRY ABOUT DEFICITS, OR IS IT A CROWDING OUT OF INVESTMENT FROM HYPERSCALERS AND THOSE SORT OF THINGS? YEAH. >> WHAT'S I THINK IT'S AT LEAST THOSE TWO THINGS, BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKE FIVE THINGS. I THINK IT'S THE PEOPLE'S EXPECTATIONS ABOUT INFLATION BECAUSE OF WHAT'S HAPPENING, THIS PROLONGED WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. YOU SAW WITH AMERICAN INFLATION, UH, THE NUMBERS THAT HAVE JUST COME OUT, WE SAW A SPIKE IN THE US BECAUSE OF GLOBAL OIL PRICES. THAT'S THE FIRST ONE. SECONDLY, YOU KNOW, THE EXPECTATION AROUND EVERY MAJOR ADVANCED ECONOMY RIGHT NOW, THE MARKET IS PRICING IN MORE INTEREST RATE RISES. UH, THERE IS CONCERNS ABOUT THE DEBT POSITION OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD. THERE'S THE COMPETITION FROM THE HYPERSCALERS, THIS ABSOLUTE MOUNTAIN OF CAPITAL THAT THE HYPERSCALERS ARE RAISING. AND THEN THE FIFTH CATEGORY, I THINK, IS THIS BACKDROP OF ACCELERATING CHANGE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHY, INDUSTRY, GEOPOLITICS, AND JUST THAT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY THAT EVERYBODY'S DEALING WITH HERE.
当然，担心的是，它会制造如此大的不确定性，导致事情失控、发生事故、市场出现裂缝——无论是什么原因。然后一切都会轰然倒塌。如今我们显然处于比全球金融危机或债务危机时期更好的位置。所以这不是……但当然，最大的区别在于风险的规模，因为人工智能的规模巨大，债务水平也是如此。
THE WORRY, OF COURSE, IS, IS THAT IT CREATES SUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT THINGS FALL OVER, THAT AN ACCIDENT HAPPENS, THAT THERE'S A FISSURE IN THE MARKET, WHETHER IT BE WHATEVER. AND THEN THE WHOLE LOT COMES TUMBLING DOWN. NOW WE ARE CLEARLY IN A MUCH BETTER POSITION THAN WE WERE IN GFC OR DEBT CRISIS. SO THAT'S NOT BUT BUT THE BIG DIFFERENCE, OF COURSE, IS THAT THE RISK IS MAGNITUDE, BECAUSE AI IS MAGNITUDE, AND THE DEBT LEVELS ARE MAGNITUDE. >> LOOK, THERE'S MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF VOLATILITY.
看，现在的波动性超过了平时的水平。这意味着风险也超过了平时的水平。我认为从澳大利亚的角度来看，这是正确的。你知道，我们的国内生产总值中只有其他国家所占比例的一小部分是政府债务。因此，我们主要从借贷成本的角度来考虑这个问题。但对于澳大利亚来说，我们已经能够将债务轨迹降低一些。我们面临着债券收益率上升的压力，以及这对借贷成本意味着什么。但但就我们而言，我们处于更有利的位置。
AND THAT MEANS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF RISK. I THINK THAT'S THAT'S TRUE FROM AN AUSTRALIAN POINT OF VIEW. YOU KNOW WE'VE GOT A SLIVER OF THE GROSS DEBT TO GDP THAT OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE GOT. AND SO PRIMARILY WE THINK ABOUT THIS IN TERMS OF BORROWING COSTS. BUT FOR AUSTRALIA, WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO GET THAT DEBT TRAJECTORY DOWN A BIT. WE'RE EXPOSED TO UM THIS UPWARD PRESSURE ON BOND YIELDS AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR BORROWING COSTS. BUT BUT FOR US, WE ARE BETTER