
民主党及其盟友的倡导团体正通过大量关于伊朗战争的竞选广告轰炸电视和广播,试图重新夺回众议院和参议院的控制权。
Democrats and aligned advocacy groups are hitting the airwaves with a flood of campaign ads on the Iran war as they seek to win back in the House and Senate.
凯文·弗雷金,亚伦·凯斯勒 华盛顿 — — 在威斯康星州,一名旁白抱怨说:“杂货、公用事业,一切都在变得更昂贵,而众议员(德里克)范·奥登正把问题加到清单上。他投了赞成票支持这场昂贵的伊朗战争,导致油价飙升。”在内布拉斯加州,民主党候选人克里斯·巴克迈耶表示,家庭正陷入困境。“而迈克·弗洛德打开了闸门。弗洛德曾六次投票支持特朗普的关税和伊朗战争,导致杂货、汽油、汽车和药品价格上涨,使我们每年多花一千美元。”
KEVIN FREKING, AARON KESSLER WASHINGTON — In Wisconsin, a narrator complains that “groceries, utilities, everything’s getting more expensive and Congressman (Derrick) Van Orden is adding to the list. He voted for the costly Iran war spiking gas prices In Nebraska, Democratic candidate Chris Backemeyer says families are drowning. “And Mike Flood opened the gates. Flood voted six times for Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war, flooding us with higher prices on groceries, gas, cars and medicine, costing us a thousand dollars more a year.”
而在爱荷华州,一个名为“投票退伍军人行动基金”(Vote Vets Action Fund)的团体表示,共和党参议院候选人阿什利·赫森曾五次投票支持伊朗战争,“让我们承受了创纪录的油价和肥料价格。”这些广告只是民主党及其盟友倡导团体如何利用这场不受欢迎的战争来挑战共和党、试图重新夺回众议院和参议院控制权的几个例子。
And in Iowa, a group called Vote Vets Action Fund said Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson voted five times for the Iran war, “giving us record prices for gas and fertilizer.”Those ads are but a few examples of how Democrats and aligned advocacy groups are using an unpopular war as they challenge Republicans, aiming to win back power in the House and Senate.
这是民主党在春季启动的一项策略的 culmination(达到顶点),当时他们开始反复提出旨在结束冲突的战争权力决议。这些投票实际上几乎没有实际效果,但迫使立法者公开表态并表明立场。
It’s the culmination of a strategy Democrats launched in the spring, when they began to repeatedly bring up war powers resolutions aimed at ending the conflict. The votes had little practical effect, but forced lawmakers to go on record and take a stand.
如今,这些投票正在全国范围内的竞选广告中被突出强调,据美联社对AdImpact数据的分析所示 — — AdImpact是一家追踪媒体支出的机构。
Now those votes are being highlighted in campaign ads across the country, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from AdImpact, which charts media spending.
在某些情况下,被民主党针对的共和党人此前从未担任过国会议员,因此他们根本不可能对各项战争权力决议进行投票。即便如此,民主党仍在将他们描绘成在伊朗战争问题上注定会成为特朗普总统的橡皮图章。将战争与生活成本挂钩美联社分析了9月1日至10月14日在美国最激烈的中期选举竞选中播出的广播和有线电视广告数据。分析重点聚焦于被库克政治报告评为摇摆席位或倾向民主党或共和党的众议院和参议院竞选。还审查了一些流媒体广告,但数量较少。
In some cases, the Republicans targeted have never served in Congress before, so they couldn’t possibly have voted on the various war powers resolutions. Even then, Democrats are portraying them as destined to be rubber stamps for President Donald Trump when it comes to the war. Tying the war to the cost of living The Associated Press analyzed data on broadcast and cable ads aired from Sept. 1 through Oct. 14 in the most competitive midterm races. The analysis focused on House and Senate races rated as either tossups or leaning Democratic or Republican by the Cook Political Report. A smaller number of streaming ads were also examined.
在50场竞选中,至少有半数出现了与伊朗相关的广告,其中大多数包含了家庭生活成本的信息。总计,自9月1日起,这些广告在电视上播出超过43,000次,花费估计达4200万美元。美联社既使用了AdImpact自身的议题分类,又对广告语言进行了额外分析,以此识别相关广告。
At least half of the 50 races featured Iran-related ads, most of which included household cost-of-living messages. All told, the ads aired on TV more than 43,000 times since Sept. 1, costing an estimated $42 million. The AP used both AdImpact’s own issue designations along with additional analysis of the ads’ language to identify them.
美联社识别出的65则独特伊朗主题广告中,有61则强调了家庭生活成本信息,如燃料和其他物品价格上涨。共和党的策略手册共和党人在广告中基本上忽略了伊朗战争。共和党策略师罗恩·博恩让表示,他们的最佳策略是抓住民主党的弱点,让选民觉得“这个人更糟”。
Of the 65 unique Iran-themed ads identified by the AP, 61 of them stressed household cost-of-living messages such as rising prices for fuel and other items. The Republican playbook Republicans are largely ignoring the Iran war in their ads. Their best strategy is to go after Democratic weaknesses so voters say “this guy is worse,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist.
他说:“归根结底,你试图让尽可能多的共和党人出来为你投票,并争取一些独立选民的支持。谈论伊朗战争实际上不是一个获胜的信息,因为你是在民主党的阵地上作战。”自9月1日起,共和党广告的主要主题是税收和犯罪,其次是与人物品格相关的议题,随后是医疗和移民。
“In the end, you’re trying to get as many Republicans out to vote for you as possible and bring over some independents,” Bonjean said. “And talking about the Iran war is really not a winning message because you’re playing on the Democratic turf.”The major themes addressed in the Republican advertising since Sept. 1 are taxes and crime, followed by issues tied to character, healthcare and immigration.
一些共和党人试图在电视节目之外与伊朗冲突保持距离。在密歇根州,共和党参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯表示,“与伊朗的战争需要结束 — — 并且要快速结束。”他的对手、民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德投放广告称,每天有十亿美元用于一场“我们不该参与”的战争,他正竞选以“在这里密歇根州投资我们的税款”。
Some Republicans have sought to distance themselves from the Iran conflict outside the airwaves. In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has said the “war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly.”His opponent, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, has run ads saying that a billion dollars a day is going to a war “we have no business fighting” and he was running to “invest our tax dollars here in Michigan.”
在缅因州,共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯在最近的一场辩论中强调,她曾九次投票以结束冲突,这促使民主党挑战者特罗伊·杰克逊表示,她曾五次投票“让它成为现实”。总体而言,参议院已就旨在制止或限制特朗普对伊朗军事行动的决议进行了14次投票。自冲突于2月下旬爆发以来,众议院已就此类议题进行了六次投票。
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins emphasized in a recent debate that she voted nine times to end the conflict, prompting Democratic challenger Troy Jackson to say she voted five times to “make it happen.”In all, the Senate has voted 14 times on resolutions seeking to halt or restrict Trump’s military action against Iran. The House has held six such votes since the conflict began in late February.
在最近一次众议院投票中,有七名共和党人最终与民主党人站在同一边,投票支持结束战争。其中包括四名在竞争激烈选区寻求连任的共和党人:密歇根州的汤姆·巴雷特、宾夕法尼亚州的布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克,以及爱荷华州的玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯和扎克·努恩。巴雷特和菲茨帕特里克之前曾投票支持将美军从冲突中撤出,但此次的赞成票是米勒-米克斯和努恩首次投赞成票,反映出人们对战争的厌倦情绪日益加深。
In the latest House vote seven Republicans ended up siding with Democrats in voting to end the war. That includes four Republicans seeking reelection in highly competitive districts: Tom Barrett of Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa. Barrett and Fitzpatrick had voted previously to remove U.S. troops from hostilities, but the yes votes were the first for Miller-Meeks and Nunn reflecting the growing weariness with the war.
伊朗相关广告最集中的地区 虽然伊朗战争广告仅占在竞争激烈选区播出的电视广告总量的约5%,但有些选区将这一话题作为重点。集中度最高的是加利福尼亚州第48个国会选区,该选区位于圣地亚哥地区。
Where Iran ads are most prevalent While the Iran war ads made up about 5% of the total TV spots aired across the competitive races, some contests leaned into the topic heavily. The highest concentration was in California’s 48th Congressional District in the San Diego area.
大约三分之一的12,000条播出广告涉及伊朗。民主党正利用共和党人吉姆·德斯蒙德在战争早期接受《真实美国之声》采访时的一句话进行攻击,他说过“没有痛苦,就没有收获”。他在同一次采访中还表示,他认为油价上涨只是“一个尖峰”,一旦美国消除伊朗的核能力,油价就会回落。
Roughly a third of the 12,000 aired ads touch on Iran. Democrats are seizing on a remark that Republican Jim Desmond made in the early days of the war, in which he said “no pain, no gain” as part of an interview on Real America’s Voice. He also said in that interview he believed the higher prices were just “a spike” and would come down once the U.S. eliminated Iran’s nuclear capability.
“痛苦才有收获吗?”民主党候选人马尼·冯·威尔伯特的广告这样问道。“告诉正在给汽车加油的家庭吧。”德斯蒙德和全国共和党国会委员会则用一则不提伊朗的广告作出回应,该广告批评冯·威尔伯特在担任圣地亚哥市议会成员期间提高了税收和费用。与此形成对比的是,该广告称德斯蒙德曾努力降低成本,并支持暂停征收汽油税。
“No pain, no gain?” asks an ad from Democratic candidate Marni von Wilpert. “Tell that to a family filling up their gas tank.”Desmond and the National Republican Congressional Committee responded with an ad that doesn’t mention Iran but criticizes von Wilpert for raising taxes and fees when she was on the San Diego City Council. In contrast, the ad says Desmond fought to lower costs and supports suspending the gas tax.
在伊朗相关广告方面,弗吉尼亚州第二国会选区(目前由共和党众议员詹·基甘斯持有)和缅因州第二国会选区(一个悬空席位)紧随其后。这两个选区的广告中大约有四分之一涉及伊朗。两地的竞争都异常激烈。
Not far behind in Iran-related ads are Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, now held by Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, an open seat. Roughly a quarter of the ads in those districts touch on Iran. Both are highly competitive races.
与此同时,俄亥俄州已播出约4000则伊朗主题广告,占该州广告总量的约4%,而该州是全国竞争最激烈、花费最高的选区之一。这些广告几乎全部出自民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗的竞选团队,并高度聚焦于“钱包议题”。
Meanwhile, some 4,000 Iran-themed ads have aired in Ohio, or about 4% of the total in one of the nation’s most expensive contests Nearly all were from Democrat Sherrod Brown’s campaign and leaned heavily on pocketbook themes.