美国各地能源价格均有上涨，但涨势对不同地区的冲击程度不一。而这种影响可能会对下个月的中期选举产生影响。
Energy prices are up all over the U.S., but the surge is hitting some regions harder than others. And that impact could affect next month’s midterm elections.
与伊朗战争相关的燃料成本上升是推动通胀的主要因素，9月通胀率升至3.7%。但全国平均水平掩盖了各州之间的巨大差异。据布朗大学气候解决实验室估计，在怀俄明州，典型家庭今年因伊朗战争在汽油上多花了975美元；而在俄勒冈州，额外负担仅为339美元。
Rising fuel costs tied to the Iran war are the main driver of inflation, which rose to 3.7% in September. But the national average masks wide differences from state to state. In Wyoming, the typical household has spent an extra $975 on gasoline this year because of the Iran war, according to estimates from Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab. In Oregon, the additional burden was just $339.
由于炼油厂和运输成本等因素的差异，各地区的汽油价格涨幅各不相同。与此同时，农村州居民往往驾驶更大的车辆行驶更长的距离，因此汽油消耗量更高。这意味着他们更容易受到价格上涨的影响。
Regional gas-price increases vary because of differences in refineries and transportation costs, among other factors. At the same time, people in rural states tend to consume more gasoline because they drive bigger vehicles over longer distances. That means they are more exposed to rising prices.
布朗大学的研究人员通过考察人均汽油消耗量和当地价格涨幅，估算了各州典型家庭的额外成本。结果显示，腹地地区遭受了不成比例的打击，其中包括即将举行的参议院选举中的几个关键摇摆州。
Researchers at Brown estimated the typical household’s increased cost for each state by looking at both per capita gas consumption and the increase in local prices. The results show a disproportionate hit to the heartland—including key battleground states in coming Senate races.
在《华尔街日报》选举追踪器将今年参议院竞选列为悬而未决或仅略微倾向某一党派的九个州中，有七个州的家庭汽油成本涨幅今年快于美国平均水平：爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、缅因州、密歇根州、新罕布什尔州、北卡罗来纳州和德克萨斯州。
Of the nine states where The Wall Street Journal’s election tracker lists this year’s Senate race as a tossup or merely leaning toward one party, seven saw household gasoline costs rise faster this year than the U.S. average: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Texas.
与此同时，加利福尼亚州和纽约州等人口稠密的沿海州，账单上涨速度慢于美国整体。这两个州的加油站油价涨幅均快于全国平均水平，但由于典型家庭的汽油消耗量低于全国其他地区，因此感受到的影响较小。
Meanwhile, populous coastal states such as California and New York have seen bills rise more slowly than the U.S. as a whole. Both states saw prices at the pump rise faster than the national average, but because typical households there consume less gas than the rest of the country they haven’t felt the impact as much.
“最大的驱动因素实际上更多与消费模式有关，”布朗大学气候解决实验室主任杰夫·科尔根说。
“The big driver is really much more about consumption patterns,” said Jeff Colgan, director of the Climate Solutions Lab.
调查显示，通胀是选民在中期选举前最关注的问题之一。全国范围内，过去一年汽油价格上涨了34%，而燃油价格在9月份上涨了74%，这是劳工部的数据。特朗普总统在2024年竞选期间曾承诺“从第一天起”降低价格，但自伊朗战争爆发以来，他的支持率已降至历史低点。生活成本上升引发的愤怒是导致曾经稳固的共和党州如堪萨斯州和德克萨斯州变得竞争激烈的因素之一。汽油价格只能说明问题的一半。柴油燃料的成本上涨更为显著。
Surveys show that inflation is a top concern for voters going into the midterms. Nationally, gas prices were up 34% over the past year, and fuel oil prices were up 74% in September, according to the Labor Department. President Trump, who on the 2024 campaign trail promised to lower prices “starting on day one,” has seen his approval rating fall to historic lows since the start of the Iran war. Anger over the rising cost of living is one of the factors that have turned once solidly Republican states like Kansas and Texas competitive. Gasoline prices only tell half the story. Costs for diesel fuel have increased even more.
而且，这一负担主要落在农业地区，因为柴油用于为拖拉机、收割机和卡车提供动力。怀俄明州因柴油价格上涨导致每户额外成本达到2254美元，位居全国首位——几乎是全国平均水平的五倍——紧随其后的是关键参议院摇摆州阿拉斯加州，每户额外成本为2179美元。摇摆州爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、缅因州、新罕布什尔州和德克萨斯州也受到柴油价格上涨的冲击程度高于全国平均水平。
And again, the burden falls heavily on agricultural regions, where the fuel is used to power tractors, combines and trucks. Wyoming led the pack with an additional per-household cost of $2,254 due to higher diesel prices—almost five times the national average—closely followed by the key Senate swing state of Alaska at $2,179. Swing states Iowa, Kansas, Maine, New Hampshire and Texas were also hit harder by rising diesel prices than the country as a whole.
请写信联系Konrad Putzier，邮箱：konrad.putzier@wsj.com；以及Alana Pipe，邮箱：alana.pipe@wsj.com。
Write to Konrad Putzier at konrad.putzier@wsj.com and Alana Pipe at alana.pipe@wsj.com