特朗普总统和共和党人在中期选举前夕刚刚收到了关于通胀的最坏消息：9月份物价涨幅超出预期。
President Donald Trump and Republicans just got the worst news on inflation ahead of the midterms: Prices rose more than expected in September.
对美国选民来说，这一消息并不意外。民调显示，他们对自疫情以来持续高企的生活成本感到愤怒，而今年这一情况因特朗普的政策而进一步恶化——包括关税，以及主要的伊朗战争。
The news came as no surprise to American voters. Polls show they’re furious about the high cost of living that has persisted since the pandemic but has been exacerbated this year by Trump’s policies – including tariffs and, primarily, the Iran war.
为缓解部分价格压力，特朗普政府一直在动用其所有手段。一个多月前，美国海军开始了一项高风险行动，以协助油轮将海湾地区的石油运出霍尔木兹海峡。而在一次孤注一掷的尝试中，特朗普上周宣布了一项有争议的协议，即放宽对俄罗斯的部分制裁，以便进口该国相对少量的柴油。
To alleviate some of the price pain, the Trump administration has been diving deep into its bag of tricks. Over a month ago, the US Navy began a high-stakes effort to assist tankers shuttling Gulf oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. And in a hail-Mary attempt, Trump last week announced a controversial deal to drop some sanctions on Russia to import a relatively small amount of the country’s diesel.
伊朗及其胡塞盟友如今正在破坏这两项行动。过去一周，对油轮和油气基础设施的袭击增加，导致油价和柴油价格上涨。这种扰乱导致霍尔木兹海峡和巴布曼德布海峡的船舶通行量在大幅恢复至战前水平后，再次急剧下降。
Iran and its Houthi allies are now undermining both of those operations. An increase in attacks on tankers and oil infrastructure over the past week has sent oil and diesel prices higher. The disruption has sent transits through the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb falling sharply after mostly recovering to their pre-war levels.
特朗普政府本来就不可能在中期选举前一个月解决通胀问题。但其为争取一些关于价格的积极消息而做出的最后努力，本周却正面撞上了一堵墙。
The Trump administration was never going to solve the inflation problem in the month leading up to the midterms. But its last-ditch effort for some positive news on prices has run face-first into a brick wall this week.
周三发布的消费者价格指数显示了一个熟悉的故事：9月份通胀继续上升，主要受能源成本飙升的推动。
Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index showed a familiar story: Inflation continued to rise in September, boosted mostly by surging energy costs.
汽油价格在当月上涨了9.1%，截至9月底，较去年同期高出超过34%。燃油价格上月上涨了15.3%，过去一年累计上涨超过74%。
Gas prices rose 9.1% over the course of the month and ended September more than 34% higher than the same time last year. Fuel oil prices rose 15.3% last month and surged more than 74% over the course of the past year.
这些更高的成本正开始蔓延到经济的其他领域。正如我的同事马特·伊根周二所指出的，根据穆迪分析公司的数据，伊朗战争正使平均美国家庭额外承担2000美元的成本。
Those higher costs are starting to spread to other parts of the economy. As my colleague Matt Egan noted Tuesday, the Iran war is costing the average American household $2,000 in additional costs, according to Moody’s Analytics.
周三的通胀报告中特别令人担忧的是住房和租金成本的意外反弹，这是通胀的重要推动因素，在春季和夏季曾有所回落。
Particularly concerning in Wednesday’s inflation report was the surprising rebound in housing and rent costs, a significant contributor to inflation that had cooled off in the spring and summer.
当月所有服务价格上涨0.4%——随着瑜伽工作室、草坪服务等行业因成本上升而向客户收取更高费用，这类服务价格往往会上涨。这些服务价格的上涨可能仅是伊朗战争的连锁反应，但经济学家一旦看到它们上涨就会担忧，因为它们往往具有“粘性”。直白地说：你们上次看到孩子们的托儿所降价是什么时候？
All services rose 0.4% in the month – prices that tend to rise as yoga studios, lawn services and the like charge their customers more to make up for their rising costs. Those services prices may only be a knock-on effect from the Iran war, but economists get worried when they rise, because they tend to be “sticky.”Bluntly: When was the last time your kids’ nursery school lowered prices?
尽管物价上涨，美国整体经济仍保持高温，消费者继续消费。但更高的通胀已经转化为更高的债券收益率和联邦储备局利率，这正在推高借贷成本，使住房变得更加难以负担。
The overall US economy remains hot and consumers keep spending despite rising prices. But higher inflation has translated into higher bond yields and rates from the Federal Reserve, which are lifting borrowing costs and making housing even less affordable.
伊朗对此了如指掌。它知道特朗普及其共和党正面临的政治压力。它也知道现在是几月份。
Iran knows all this. It knows the political pressure Trump and his Republican party are facing. And it knows what month it is.
根据海事追踪服务Kpler的数据，在相对平静的九月之后，过去两周中东及其周边地区至少有18艘船只遭到袭击。周二，伊朗支持的胡塞武装似乎袭击了沙特国家石油巨头阿美公司的总部。
After a relatively quiet September, at least 18 vessels in and around the Middle East have been attacked over the past two weeks, according to Kpler, a maritime tracking service. On Tuesday, the Iran-allied Houthis appeared to hit the headquarters of Saudi state oil giant Aramco.
“伊朗似乎正试图在中期选举前保持油价高位，而实现这一目标的最佳方式就是增加袭击——无论是来自伊朗自身，还是通过胡塞武装，”Kpler分析师马特·史密斯表示。
“It appears Iran is attempting to keep oil prices high ahead of the midterm elections, and the best way to do this has been to increase attacks - both from themselves and via the Houthis,” said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler.
关于谁控制霍尔木兹海峡的叙事一直在变化，如今又发生了新的转折。
The ever-shifting narrative about who controls the Strait of Hormuz has changed once again.
受海军保护的暗舰队将海湾石油运送出海峡并转运至阿曼湾油轮的复杂作战此前取得了巨大成功。就在几周前，霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量几乎已完全恢复到战前水平。
The complex operation of naval-protected dark fleets shuttling Gulf oil out of the strait and offloading it to tankers in the Gulf of Oman had been hugely successful. Just a few weeks ago, oil transits out of the Strait of Hormuz had almost fully recovered to their pre-war levels.
但根据Kpler的数据，过去七天里，通过该海峡的石油和燃料运输量已降至战前水平的54%。
Over the past seven days, oil and fuel transits through the strait have fallen to 54% of their pre-war levels, according to Kpler.
皮克林能源合伙公司创始人兼首席投资官丹·皮克林表示，伊朗的报复不应让人感到意外。
Iran’s retaliation should surprise no one, said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.
“随着美国吹嘘成功将更多原油输送至全球市场，这感觉就像在身上贴了一个大大的‘踢我’牌子，”他说。“伊朗正在攻击几乎所有人。与此同时，伊朗的代理人胡塞武装正在对沙特阿拉伯发动攻击，并取得了相当大的成果。”胡塞武装最近对沙特基础设施的袭击提升了战争的风险。尽管在成功但可修复的袭击击中沙特阿拉伯关键的东西输油管道后，石油市场基本躲过一劫，但最近的袭击证明，冲突短期内不会平息。
“As the US trumpets the success of getting more crude out to global markets, it feels somewhat like sporting a big ‘kick me’ sign,” he said. “Iran is attacking almost everyone. Meanwhile, Iran’s proxy, the Houthis, are attacking Saudi Arabia with substantial results.”Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure have raised the stakes of the war. Although the oil market largely dodged a bullet after a successful but repairable attack on Saudi Arabia’s crucial East-West pipeline, the recent attacks prove that the conflict isn’t abating anytime soon.
最终谁是赢家尚不确定：美国海军可能再次占据上风。政府可能会找到其他创造性的方式，让更多柴油流向市场。
The ultimate winner can’t yet be known: The US Navy may once again gain the upper hand. The administration may find other creative ways to get more diesel flowing to the market.
与此同时，输家很明确：美国消费者。而在三周后，他们将在中期选举中投票，对经济进行评判。
In the meantime, the loser is clear: The American consumer. And in three weeks they will be casting their verdict on the economy as they vote in the midterms.