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随着中期选举临近,特朗普希望降低燃料成本——这能奏效吗?Trump wants to reduce the cost of fuel as the midterms loom - will it work?

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在美国犹他州盐湖城的一个晴朗日子里,一位反戴棒球帽、身穿蓝色T恤的顾客正在加油站为一辆红色汽车加油。A customer wearing a backwards cap and a blue tshirt refuels a red vehicle at a gas station in Salt Lake City, Utah, United States on a clear, sunny day.

随着生活成本问题日益成为数百万美国民众关注的焦点,燃油价格也出现了飙升。

The price of fuel has soared as the cost of living emerges as a key issue for millions of Americans.

据雷切尔·克伦报道,自2月份美国、以色列与伊朗爆发冲突以来,汽油和柴油价格已上涨了一倍多,这一情况严重影响了运输行业、农业生产者以及所有驾车出行的美国人。

By Rachel Clun Prices for gasoline and diesel have more than doubled since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February, affecting transport businesses, farmers and anyone who drives a vehicle in America.

在即将举行的中期选举前夕,要求采取措施降低燃油价格的呼声日益高涨。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普也多次发表言论并宣布相关举措,试图控制油价上涨势头。

Ahead of the critical midterm elections, there have been growing calls for more to be done to reduce the price of fuel, and US President Donald Trump has made several comments and announcements aimed at getting costs down.

问题在于:距离选举日仅剩几周时间,特朗普究竟能做些什么?这些举措又能否奏效呢?为何特朗普要努力降低汽油与柴油价格?

The question is: what is he able to do with just a few weeks to go before election day - and will it work? Why does Trump want to reduce gas and diesel prices?

本周,特朗普在一次竞选活动中宣布允许使用含红色染料的柴油,这一举措凸显了在民众普遍关注生活成本问题的背景下,燃油价格对中期选举的重要性。

Trump's announcement of a waiver on the use of red dye diesel at a campaign stop this week underscored the importance of gas prices in a midterm election dominated by affordability issues.

当前,公众对燃油、食品及其他商品价格的持续上涨忧心忡忡。选民们将这一问题与特朗普及其所属政党联系起来,这对11月份参选的共和党人造成了不利影响。

The election comes as there is widespread public concern over the rising costs of fuel, food and other goods. Voters have tied the issue to Trump and his party, weighing down Republicans running in November.

民意调查显示,大多数美国民众对特朗普处理经济事务以及应对伊朗冲突的方式持负面态度,而上述因素正是导致美国柴油与汽油价格居高不下的原因。

Polls show a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy and the war in Iran, which has contributed to high diesel and gas prices in the US.

自中东冲突爆发以来,霍尔木兹海峡的石油及成品油正常运输通道受阻数月,全球石油供应也因此受到限制。

Global oil supplies have been restricted since the conflict in the Middle East effectively halted the usual flow of oil and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz for months.

虽然目前原油运输量已基本恢复至战前水平,但油价仍维持在每桶100美元以上。持续高企的油价进而引发了柴油与汽油价格的上涨。

While the flow of crude oil is nearly back to pre-war levels the price remains above $100 a barrel, and sustained high oil prices have had a knock-on effect for diesel and gasoline.

大宗商品信息机构阿格斯的定价经理大卫·鲁伊萨德指出,俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的战争同样影响了石油供应,也是导致燃油价格居高不下的因素之一。

David Ruisard, pricing manager for commodities intelligence firm Argus says the ongoing Russian war with Ukraine has also impacted oil supplies, contributing to higher fuel prices.

“据我们估算,柴油价格从每加仑约3美元上涨至6美元,其中60%的原因与霍尔木兹海峡局势相关,40%则源于俄乌冲突,”他说道。

"Our estimates are that your price increase from about $3 a gallon up to $6 a gallon [for diesel] is 60% connected to the Strait of Hormuz, 40% connected to the Russia-Ukraine conflict," he says.

牛津经济研究院的美国首席经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯指出,今年通胀率上升很大程度上是由能源价格上涨所致,而这又推动了利率上升。

Those higher energy prices are responsible for most of the uptick in inflation this year, Oxford Economics chief US economist Michael Pearce says, which is pushing up interest rates.

“利率上升与能源价格高企的双重影响正在挤压家庭预算,同时也增加了企业的运营成本,”他说道。

"The combined impact of higher rates and higher energy prices is squeezing household budgets and adding to firms' costs," he says.

尽管油价仍处于高位,但燃油价格追踪网站GasBuddy的石油分析主管帕特里克·德哈恩表示,近期汽油与柴油价格均出现了小幅回落。

While prices remain high, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for fuel price tracking website GasBuddy said there have been modest declines recently for both gasoline and diesel.

“这一趋势很可能与特朗普政府过去几周采取的若干举措有关,”他说道。特朗普迄今为止采取了哪些措施呢?

"A lot of that is likely due to some of the manoeuvres that we've seen the Trump administration employ over the last couple of weeks," he said. What has Trump done so far?

本周,总统宣布将允许所谓的“红色染料柴油”——一种仅用于非公路用途且无需缴纳联邦税的燃料——在美国公路上使用,且无需缴纳相关税费。

The president announced this week that he would allow so-called red dye diesel - fuel which is used off-road and does not face federal taxes - to be used on US highways without facing federal levies.

鲁伊萨德解释称,卡车司机和普通消费者所使用的柴油与这种免税的红色染料柴油唯一的区别就在于染料本身。“问题在于这种红色染料极难从油箱中清除干净,”他解释道。

Ruisard said the only difference in the diesel used by truck drivers and everyday consumers and the tax-free red dye diesel is the dye itself. "The problem with that red dye is, it's extremely hard to clean it out of your tank," he explained.

他还指出,一旦这项临时免税政策到期,那些使用了红色染料柴油的运输公司就会面临麻烦。

The problem that creates is what happens to trucking companies that use the dyed diesel once the temporary tax relief ends, he said.

“由于使用这种燃料被视为逃税行为,相关罚款金额相当高昂。”据鲁伊萨德介绍,扩大红色染料柴油使用范围的另一个问题在于,个人及企业——包括铁路运营商——通常都会预留一定数量的该种燃料以备使用。

"The fines are pretty high for having that in your fuel tank because its considered tax evasion." The other issue with expanding the use of red dye diesel, according to Ruisard, is that people and businesses - including rail operators - usually set aside a particular amount of the product.

“如果突然有大量人群开始大量采购这种柴油,就会导致他们的库存迅速耗尽,”他说道。不过分析人士认为,特朗普采取的另一项举措则更为奏效。

"If suddenly people go out and they start consuming that diesel, that depletes their available supply as well," he said. But another move from Trump has been more successful, according to analysts.

上周,在特朗普施压之下,七国集团宣布将从储备中释放1亿桶石油和柴油,以缓解市场供应紧张局面。

Last week, the G7 countries announced they would release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from stockpiles to ease supply concerns, following pressure from Trump to do so.

德哈恩指出,无论目前实际释放了多少石油,这一公告本身“已在一定程度上促使油价有所回落”。

De Haan says the announcement itself – regardless of how much has been released so far – "has worked to push prices down to some degree".

经济学家皮尔斯对此表示认同,但也警告称这种储备释放措施只是权宜之计。

Economist Pearce agreed but warned the release is only a temporary solution.

“只要海湾地区的能源出口仍受干扰,就需要继续消耗储备来满足市场需求,”他说道,“而日后补充这些储备的需求则意味着:即便中东地区的供应中断问题得到解决,能源价格仍会在一段时间内维持高位。” 特朗普还提出了哪些举措呢?本周早些时候,特朗普称自己正在“考虑”暂停征收联邦汽油税。

"As long as energy exports from the Gulf remain disrupted, stocks will need to be drained further to supply the market," he said. "And the need to refill those stocks will mean energy prices remain elevated for a period, even when disruption in the Middle East clears." What else has the president suggested? Earlier this week, Trump said he was "thinking about" suspending federal tax on gasoline.

唐纳德·特朗普在访问德克萨斯州彼得比尔特汽车卡车厂时,站在一辆闪亮的蓝色卡车前,旁边是一面美国国旗,举起拳头。Donald Trump stands in front of a shiny blue truck and next to an American flag holding a raised fist during a visit to the Peterbilt Motors truck plant in Texas.

德哈恩介绍称,总统还敦促各州降低本州的汽油税,目前包括俄亥俄州和乔治亚州在内的多个州已经照做了。

De Haan said the president has also been imploring states to cut state taxes on gasoline and several have done so, including Ohio and Georgia.

他表示,州级汽油税在消费者支付的油费中占“一定比例”,这些减税措施确实有助于降低油价及全国平均油费水平。不过,要暂停或削减联邦汽油税,必须获得国会的配合。“中期选举临近,要获得国会支持恐怕难度不小,”德哈恩说道。此外,这一举措的成本也相当高昂。

State taxes form a "moderate portion" of what consumers pay at the pump, and those reductions have helped reduce prices and national averages, he said. However, suspending or reducing the federal levy on gasoline would require the cooperation of Congress. "That may be difficult to obtain ahead of the midterm elections," said De Haan. It is also a costly measure.

据德哈恩估算,今年5月下调汽油税的印第安纳州,因此损失了10亿美元(约合7.6亿英镑)的财政收入。此前特朗普还支持过禁止美国出口柴油的提议。

De Haan estimated that in Indiana, which cut its tax on gasoline in May, it has cost the state government $1bn (£760m) in lost revenue. Trump has also previously supported calls for a ban on diesel exports from the US.

皮尔斯指出,虽然该举措能在一定程度上缓解海湾地区及中西部的供应压力,但对东北部和西海岸地区“几乎毫无益处”。

While that would provide partial relief in the Gulf and Midwest, according to Pearce, he adds it would be of "little benefit" to the Northeast and West Coast.

“这项政策很可能适得其反:它会促使各方囤积柴油,而一旦库存耗尽,炼油厂就不得不减产,”他说道,“那样反而会导致包括汽油在内的其他能源产品价格上涨。” 特朗普还有其他可动用的手段吗?

"The policy risks backfiring because it would result in stockpiling of diesel, and as that storage runs out, refineries would need to cut back on production," he said. "That would raise prices of other energy products, including gasoline." Does Trump have any other levers to pull?

德汉认为,总统已经“基本拉动了总统能拉动的所有小杠杆,但我们看到价格依然居高不下”。

De Haan believes the president has "basically pulled all of the small levers that a president can pull, and we're still seeing prices very elevated".

他说:“要想大幅降低汽油价格,唯一的出路是解决导致高油价的一个或两个地缘政治紧张局势。”

"The only way out of this to reduce gas prices in a meaningful way is solve one or both of the geopolitical tensions that are causing high prices," he said.

这意味着要与伊朗达成协议,并帮助促成乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的协议——皮尔斯表示,这些都是白宫无法直接控制的问题。

That means reaching a deal with Iran and helping facilitate an agreement between Ukraine and Russia - which, Pearce said, are issues that cannot be directly controlled by the White House.

即使这些冲突得到解决,鲁伊萨德表示,由于军事打击导致中东设施受损,产量仍需四到六个月才能恢复正常。

Even if those conflicts are resolved, Ruisard said that due to damage to facilities in the Middle East caused by military strikes it would still take production four to six months to return to normal.

他说:“给消费者和业界的信息是,无论发生什么,无论总统能否成功谈判达成那种协议。”“高价格至少还将维持一小段时间。”

"The message to consumers and industry is that regardless of what happens and whether the president is able to successfully negotiate that kind of a deal," he said. "High prices are here to stay for a little while at least."