在数周时间里，共和党议员们不断提出各种降低汽油价格的方案，但又一一予以否决。如今他们不得不面对一个残酷的现实：在选举日当天，燃油价格极有可能创下历史新高。
After spending several weeks pitching and rejecting ideas to lower gas prices, Republican lawmakers have come to grips with a grim reality: Fuel prices are very likely to be at a historic high on Election Day.
他们指出，禁止柴油出口只会让情况变得更糟。至于暂停征收汽油税、扩大乙醇使用范围等其他短期措施，虽然遭到不少批评，但即便实施也几乎无法有效压低油价。
A diesel export ban would make things worse, they say. Other short-term measures, such as a gas tax suspension and expanding the use of ethanol, had plenty of critics and would have done little to bring down prices.
周一晚间，唐纳德·特朗普总统签署行政命令，解除对红色染色柴油的相关限制，旨在全面降低柴油价格。不过，在11月3日之前，特朗普不会终止与伊朗的对抗。只要霍尔木兹海峡仍未完全重新开放，任何旨在降低汽油与柴油价格的行政或立法举措都只能产生微乎其微的效果。
While President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday night to waive restrictions on red-dyed diesel — in an effort to lower diesel prices across the board — Trump is not about to end his war with Iran before Nov. 3. And until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, presidential and congressional proposals to lower gas and diesel prices would have only a marginal effect.
2026年10月4日报道：随着特朗普发动的这场不得人心的对伊战争持续进行，汽油与柴油价格已变得“难以承受”。于是，在数周来不断呼吁采取措施应对燃油价格问题之后，共和党议员们最终选择离开华盛顿，投身竞选活动。
Gas, diesel prices are ‘unsustainable’ as Trump’s unpopular war with Iran continues October 4, 2026 So, after weeks of calls to do something — anything — about fuel prices, GOP lawmakers chose to leave Washington and hit the campaign trail.
“根本没有一劳永逸的解决办法，”阿拉斯加州共和党参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基对MS NOW说道，“即便明天就结束与伊朗的战争，油价也未必能回落到2月份的水平。”参议院多数党领袖、南达科他州共和党人约翰·图恩曾短暂考虑过禁止柴油出口的提议，但最终认定此举会导致价格出现长期性上涨。至于允许全年使用E15乙醇燃料的条款，目前还需等待范围更广的农业法案取得进展，议员们希望能在今年晚些时候通过该法案。
“There’s no silver bullet,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, told MS NOW. “You could end the war in Iran tomorrow, and it still is not going to get us back to where we were in February.”Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., briefly entertained the idea of a diesel export ban, before ultimately concluding it would cause a longer-term spike in prices.
而暂停征收汽油税则会减少用于公路维护的资金来源。最终，图恩也未能找到任何可行的解决方案。
A provision to allow year-round use of E15 is waiting on progress on a broader farm bill, which lawmakers hope to pass later in the year. A gas tax suspension would have cut revenue that helps maintain highways.
9月24日，当被问及议员们是否应在休会前针对汽油价格采取某些措施时，图恩对MS NOW表示：“告诉我具体该怎么做吧。”
Ultimately, Thune could not find any good options.
“我认为确实有一些相关提议，但我觉得大多数都难以对汽油价格产生实质性影响，”他说道。“说到底，要让汽油价格回落到合理水平，最好的办法就是恢复贸易畅通、确保全球商业活动自由进行——而目前在相关海峡区域，这一条件尚未满足。”怀俄明州共和党参议员辛西娅·卢米斯也对MS NOW表示，共和党人深知高企的汽油价格会对他们不利。
When asked on Sept. 24 if lawmakers should take some sort of action on gas prices before leaving town, Thune told MS NOW to “tell me what that is.”
“我认为，除非伊朗冲突能在选举前彻底平息，否则没有什么措施能有效缓解这场危机，”卢米斯说道。“但目前看来，伊朗冲突在选举前不太可能结束。因此我预计，选民们投票时汽油与柴油价格仍将处于高位，这无疑会成为共和党的不利因素。”据美国能源信息署数据，本周一普通汽油的平均价格接近每加仑4.37美元，柴油价格则平均为每加仑6.32美元。这一数值比2022年11月初选举日前后创下的历史高位（当时汽油价格为每加仑5.33美元）还要高出约1美元。
“I think there have been some ideas out there, most of which I don’t think are going to do much to impact gas prices,” he said. “Again, the best way to get gas prices in a better spot is to get things opened up and get the free flow of global commerce, which right now, in the strait, isn’t the case.”Republicans know the high gas prices will hurt them, Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., told MS NOW.
海湾石油公司首席能源顾问汤姆·克洛扎指出，距离选举日还有四周时间，分析人士可以大致预测出选民投票时的汽油价格水平。他表示，未来一个月价格虽会呈现季节性小幅回落趋势，但预计不会出现大幅变化。
“I don’t think anything other than having the conflict with Iran completely resolve itself before the election could have much of an effect on the crisis,” Lummis told MS NOW. “And I don’t see the conflict in Iran resolving itself before the election, so my guess is we’ll be going into the election with gas and diesel prices pretty high. So, it’s a headwind.”The average gallon of regular gas cost just under $4.37 on Monday, according to Diesel averaged $6.32 per gallon That is roughly a dollar more than the previous historic high around Election Day, when it cost $5.33 in early November 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration With four weeks until Election Day, analysts can estimate a rough ballpark figure for gas prices when voters head to the polls, said Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil. There is a seasonal trend toward slightly lower prices over the next month, but there likely will not be a major change, he said.
克洛扎称，普通汽油的平均价格很可能仍将维持在每加仑4美元以上。
Regular gas will probably continue to cost at least $4 per gallon on average, Kloza said.
“我认为价格会回落到4美元出头——虽然比现在低一些，但降幅不会太大，”克洛扎对MS NOW说道。
“I think it’ll have a four-handle — lower than what we’re seeing today, but not dramatically lower,” Kloza told MS NOW.
特朗普曾承诺会降低汽油价格，但他在阿拉斯加州的支持者们仍在等待这一承诺兑现。至于柴油价格，虽然难以准确预测，但克洛扎认为选举日当天其价格很可能仍会高于每加仑6美元。
Trump promised lower gas prices. His supporters in Alaska are still waiting. | POTUS Promise Check Diesel is more difficult to estimate, but it is probably safe to bet it will cost more than $6 per gallon on Election Day, Kloza said.
未来几周，伊朗局势可能进一步恶化，因为该国领导人正密切关注美国的中期选举。
Iran could make things worse over the next few weeks, as the country’s leaders keep an eye on the U.S. midterm elections.
GasBuddy公司的石油分析主管帕特里克·德哈恩指出，这种影响或许不会十分显著，部分原因在于中国已减少了从波斯湾地区的石油进口量。能源与地缘政治咨询机构Rapidan Energy Group则向客户预警称，伊朗很可能会加大对航运及能源基础设施的攻击力度。
The difference probably would not be dramatic, partly because China has reduced how much oil it is buying from the Persian Gulf, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Rapidan Energy Group, an energy and geopolitical advisory firm, has advised clients that Iran is likely to escalate attacks against shipping and energy infrastructure.
德哈恩表示，除了结束与伊朗的战争、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及促成俄乌双方达成协议外，政策制定者并无其他能切实降低天然气价格的手段。
Aside from ending the war with Iran, opening the Strait of Hormuz and striking a deal between Russia and Ukraine, policymakers do not have any options to significantly reduce gas prices, De Haan said.
“政客们无法左右全球经济走向，”德哈恩在接受MS NOW采访时说道。
“Politicians don’t have a lever to override global economics,” De Haan told MS NOW.
他还指出，暂停征收燃油税可能适得其反：此举虽能刺激需求，却无法解决根本的供应短缺问题。
Suspending fuel taxes could be self-defeating because it would stimulate more demand without addressing the underlying supply shortage, he said.
实施柴油出口禁令或许能短期内压低价格，但这会促使炼油厂减少产量，反而导致价格再度上涨。从长远来看，这种做法带来的负面影响显然会超过短期收益。
A diesel export ban may briefly lower prices, but it would give oil refineries an incentive to pull back on production, sending prices higher. The long-term harm would easily outweigh the short-term benefit, he said.
“我强烈反对实施出口禁令，”德哈恩强调道，“如果非得为某件事据理力争，那肯定就是这件事。”不过，即便缺乏具体可行的方案，采取某种行动的诱惑仍令不少共和党议员难以抗拒。佛罗里达州共和党参议员里克·斯科特表示，他支持暂停征收燃油税，同时也提议要平衡联邦预算——目前联邦财政每年存在2万亿美元的赤字。
“I do not like an export ban, vehemently,” De Haan said. “If there’s a hill to die on, it’s probably this one.”Still, the temptation to take some sort of action appealed to many GOP lawmakers, even if they did not have many specific ideas. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said he was open to suspending fuel taxes, but also suggested balancing the federal budget — which currently is running a $2 trillion annual deficit.
“只要实现预算平衡，油价自然就会下降，”斯科特对MS NOW说道。
“If you balance the budget, prices are going to come down,” Scott told MS NOW.
西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议员吉姆·贾斯蒂斯则对记者表示，他并不排斥实施柴油出口禁令，只是不确定其实际效果如何。
Sen. Jim Justice, R-W. Va., told reporters he was open to a diesel export ban, though he was not sure it would help much.
“我不确定这能起到多大作用，但总归会有些帮助，”贾斯蒂斯说道。“如果我们不加以留意，农民们可能就得花6.50美元来购买一加仑柴油了。”当然，国会也有权反对这场对伊朗的战争，不过在这方面，多数共和党人依然支持特朗普。
“I don’t know that that’s going to help a lot, but it’s got to help some,” Justice said. “And if we don’t watch out, I mean, you’ll have farmers trying to pay $6.50 for diesel fuels.”Of course, Congress has the option to oppose the Iran war, though Republicans have mostly stayed loyal to Trump on that matter.
今年6月，国会通过了一项战争权力决议，要求政府停止军事行动，但特朗普对此置若罔闻。9月份，参议员们再次就此进行投票，结果以49票赞成、50票反对未能通过。
Congress adopted a war powers resolution in June directing the administration to cease hostilities, a measure Trump has ignored. Senators voted again in September, but fell short in a 49-50 vote.
特朗普试图将对伊朗战争的指责转嫁给俄罗斯局势——目前乌克兰正在对俄罗斯的炼油厂发动攻击。周一，他在Truth Social上写道：“如今通过霍尔木兹海峡运出的石油量创下了历史新高。”
Trump has sought to shift blame away from the Iran war and toward disruptions in Russia, where Ukraine has attacked oil refineries. On Monday, he wrote on Truth Social that “Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now” through the Strait of Hormuz.
据大宗商品信息机构Kpler的数据，除伊朗产石油外，中东海湾地区的原油出口量确实已恢复至战前水平。不过在某种程度上，损害已然造成。克洛扎指出，目前将原油从波斯湾运往亚洲所需的运输及保险成本约为每加仑33美元；而在冲突发生前，这一数值通常为2美元左右。
It is true that Middle East Gulf crude exports, excluding Iran-produced oil, have rebounded to prewar levels, according to commodities intelligence firm Kpler But to some degree, the damage is already done. The shipping and insurance costs to get crude oil from the Persian Gulf to Asia have been around $33 per gallon, Kloza said. Prior to the conflict, $2 would have been considered normal, he added.
除了试图结束战争外，国会领袖们并未就汽油价格问题采取任何行动，特朗普也并未真正实施他曾提及的柴油出口禁令。
Aside from seeking to end the war, congressional leaders opted to leave Washington without taking action on gas prices, and Trump has not followed through on his flirtation with a diesel export ban.
这样一来，共和党议员们除了向选民宣扬这场战争的正当性外，几乎别无选择。
That leaves Republican lawmakers with few options, other than seeking to sell voters on the war.
北达科他州共和党参议员约翰·霍文表示，在选举日临近之际，共和党最有力的宣传口号就是：美国必将赢得这场战争，而且从长远来看这一切都是值得的。
Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., said the GOP’s best message heading toward Election Day is that the U.S. will win the war — and that it will be worth it in the long run.
“显然，凭借我们的军队、贸易禁运措施、各项努力以及经济制裁，我们必将取得胜利。最终结果不仅会让世界更加安全，还能让民众长期享受到更低的、稳定的能源价格，”霍文对MS NOW说道。“我们必须不断传播这一信息。”
“Clearly, with our military, with the embargo, with the work we’re doing, with the economic sanctions, we’ll prevail, and the net result will not only be a safer world, but longer-term lower energy costs and stable energy costs for our people,” Hoeven told MS NOW. “We need to keep telling that story.”
文章出处：我们知道选举日时的汽油价格会如何——共和党人对此忧心忡忡，MS NOW
The post We know what gas prices will look like on Election Day — and Republicans are concerned MS NOW