10月23日 —— 随着11月中期选举迫在眉睫，唐纳德·特朗普总统正在针对一个棘手问题——柴油价格——推出一系列代价高昂且政治风险巨大的解决方案。
Oct 23 - With the November midterm elections fast approaching, President Donald Trump is throwing an array of costly and politically fraught solutions at one stubborn problem: the price of diesel.
他的政府已向农民提供数十亿美元援助，放宽卡车司机的相关规定，放松对俄罗斯燃油的制裁，并施压欧洲盟友释放应急储备。然而，上周柴油价格再度上涨，导致特朗普在选民前往投票站之际，耗费政治资本和财政资源，却未能为其政党争取到想要的缓解。
His administration has offered billions of dollars to farmers, relaxed rules for truckers, eased sanctions on Russian fuel and pressured European allies to release emergency stocks. Yet diesel prices rose again last week, leaving Trump spending political and financial capital without delivering the relief his party wants as voters go to the polls.
共和党正在捍卫其在国会中微弱的多数优势，而高昂的成本是选民的一大担忧。据10月路透社/益普索民调显示，近80%的美国人将成本上升归咎于特朗普。
Republicans are defending narrow majorities in Congress, and high costs are a major concern for voters. Nearly 80% of Americans blame Trump for higher costs, according to an October Reuters/Ipsos poll.
据能源信息署数据，美国柴油价格在最新一周每加仑上涨近10美分，平均价达6.28美元，扭转了此前连续两周下跌的趋势，仍维持在接近历史高位的水平。
US diesel prices rose nearly 10 cents a gallon in the latest week to an average of $6.28, reversing two weeks of declines and remaining near record highs, according to the Energy Information Administration.
政治压力在爱荷华州、堪萨斯州等传统共和党农业带州份尤为严峻，燃油和化肥成本上升、贸易中断以及疲软的农业经济，已在特朗普的部分核心支持者中引发不满。
The political pressure is particularly acute in traditionally Republican Farm Belt states like Iowa and Kansas, where rising fuel and fertilizer costs, trade disruptions and weak farm economics have fueled discontent among some of Trump's core supporters.
特朗普在该地区的竞选集会上大力宣传其柴油应对措施。他在内布拉斯加州的集会现场签署行政命令，允许红柴油用于公路车辆；周一在堪萨斯州集会上宣布提供80亿美元新增农业援助。
Trump has promoted his diesel measures at campaign rallies across the region. He signed an executive order onstage in Nebraska allowing red-dyed diesel to be used in highway vehicles and announced $8 billion in new farm aid during a rally in Kansas on Monday.
这些措施凸显了特朗普为追求短期缓解而接受的权衡。新增援助给联邦开支增添新的压力，而放松对俄燃油限制的举措则冒着帮助莫斯科为其在乌克兰的战争融资的风险。在以限制美国柴油出口相威胁的情况下施压欧洲盟友释放应急储备，已引发外交摩擦。
The measures illustrate the trade-offs Trump is accepting in pursuit of near-term relief. The new aid adds fresh strain on federal spending, while the Russian fuel move risks helping Moscow finance its war in Ukraine. Pressure on European allies to release emergency stocks, backed by a threat to restrict US diesel exports, has created diplomatic friction.
“总统倾向于为了短期利益而忽视长期损失，我怀疑这里是否真的能获得任何短期收益，”宾夕法尼亚州穆伦伯格学院的民调专家兼政治学家克里斯·博里克说。
“The president tends to discount long-term losses over short-term gain, and I am skeptical if there is any short gain to be had here,” said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania.
白宫将柴油价格高企归因于“既有问题”，包括多年的炼油厂关闭和俄罗斯在乌克兰战争造成的破坏，同时为特朗普降低成本的努力进行辩护。
The White House attributed high diesel prices to “pre-existing issues,” including years of refinery closures and damage from Russia's war in Ukraine, while defending Trump's efforts to ease costs.
“总统希望柴油价格下降，这就是为什么他采取了历史性行动，为美国农民、卡车司机和工人省下每一分辛苦钱，”白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯说。怀疑与未解之谜特朗普最直接的降低柴油成本尝试之一难以获得实质性进展。
“The President wants diesel prices to fall, which is why he has taken historic actions to save American farmers, truckers, and workers every hard-earned penny," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said. SKEPTICISM AND UNANSWERED QUESTIONS One of Trump's most direct attempts to lower diesel costs has struggled to gain traction.
特朗普本月签署了一项行政命令，允许卡车司机使用红色染料柴油——通常用于农用设备等非公路用途——在高速公路上行驶，同时暂时免除某些联邦税务报告和记录保存要求。
Trump signed an executive order this month allowing truckers to use red-dyed diesel, typically intended for off-road use such as farm equipment, for highway driving while temporarily avoiding certain federal tax reporting and record-keeping requirements.
但美国国税局并未取消联邦柴油税，而是暂时豁免相关报告要求和罚款至年底，给卡车加油站和燃油销售商留下了不确定性。
But the IRS has not eliminated the federal diesel tax, instead temporarily waiving related reporting requirements and penalties through year-end, leaving uncertainty for truck stops and fuel sellers.
代表美国最大卡车加油站运营商的贸易团体NATSO的首席游说者大卫·菲亚尔科夫表示，成员们赞赏特朗普解决柴油成本的努力，但指导意见仍然“模糊不清”，且风险过大。
David Fialkov, top lobbyist at NATSO, a trade group representing the largest US truck stop operators, said members appreciate Trump's effort to tackle diesel costs but that the guidance remains "murky" and carries too much risk.
“我真的看不出这些染料柴油公告会对柴油价格产生任何实质性影响，”菲亚尔科夫说。
"I really don’t see any of these dyed diesel announcements making a meaningful dent in diesel prices," Fialkov said.
特朗普还转向联邦补贴，以缓解一些感受到痛苦的选民群体的压力。
Trump is also turning to federal payments to cushion some of the constituencies feeling the pain.
政府今年向农民支付的款项原本就预计将超过470亿美元，这得益于商品支付以及美国农业部今年早些时候发放的120亿美元关税减免。80亿美元的农业救济计划将使总额达到创纪录的554亿美元，超过2020年创下的450亿美元历史最高纪录，当时农民获得了疫情援助。
Government payments to farmers were already expected to top $47 billion this year, buoyed by commodity payments and $12 billion in tariff relief distributed by the US Department of Agriculture earlier this year. The $8 billion farm relief program would push the total to a record $55.4 billion, exceeding the previous high of $45 billion in 2020, when farmers received pandemic assistance.
这些款项可以帮助农民应对更高的成本和销售额下降，但并不能直接解决导致燃料和化肥价格上涨的市场混乱问题。它们也引发了对纳税人支出补偿农场主所受损害的问题，农场团体称这些损害与本届政府自身的贸易和对外政策有关。
The payments can help farmers manage higher costs and lost sales but do not directly address the market disruptions driving up fuel and fertilizer prices. They also raise questions about taxpayer spending to compensate producers for damage that farm groups say is linked partly to the administration’s own trade and foreign policies.
“这是今年第二次紧急援助，旨在应对那些很大程度上可以预见到的损失。”全国农民联合会主席罗布·拉雷表示，“贸易中断和与海外冲突相关的燃料成本上升，使家庭农民陷入了困境，一次性付款无法为他们提供规划未来的稳定性。”目前尚不清楚最新援助资金将有多快到达农民手中。美国农业部无法立即说明资金将如何分配、何时发放给农民，或者是否需要国会批准。
“This is the second round of emergency aid this year to address losses that were largely foreseeable,” National Farmers Union President Rob Larew said. “Trade disruptions and rising fuel costs tied to conflict abroad have put family farmers in a difficult position, and one-time payments can't provide the stability they need to plan for the future.”It is unclear how quickly the latest aid will reach farmers. USDA could not immediately say how the money would be allocated, when payments would reach farmers or whether congressional approval would be required.
关于俄罗斯燃料的摩擦特朗普一些增加柴油供应的努力带有地缘政治贸易上的代价。
FRICTION OVER RUSSIAN FUEL Some of Trump's efforts to increase diesel supplies carry geopolitical trade-offs.
他放松制裁俄罗斯柴油的措施——这些制裁原本旨在限制莫斯科的能源收入并限制其为乌克兰战争提供资金的能力——引发了两党批评，也引发了对此举是否真正能降低美国燃料价格的问题。
His decision to ease sanctions on Russian diesel that were designed to restrict Moscow’s energy revenues and limit its ability to finance its war in Ukraine has drawn bipartisan criticism -- and raised questions about whether the move will meaningfully lower US fuel prices.
特朗普将放宽制裁辩护为必要之举，旨在将俄罗斯总统弗拉托夫·普京拉入谈判以结束乌克兰战争，并释放美国人斯蒂芬·哈伯德。
Trump has defended the sanctions relief as necessary to draw Russian President Vladimir Putin into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and to release American prisoner Stephen Hubbard.
随着政府的干预措施未能降低燃料成本，特朗普在11月3日选举前试图将责任转嫁给乌克兰及其总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基，而不是伊朗战争。
As the administration's intervention efforts have failed to lower fuel costs, Trump has sought to shift blame toward Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy rather than the Iran war ahead of the November 3 elections.
分析人士表示，伊朗冲突是导致柴油价格飙升的更主要因素，它扰乱了全球石油流动和精炼燃料供应；而乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的攻击虽也加剧了供应紧张，但对价格的影响相对有限。
Analysts say the Iran conflict has been the much bigger driver of the diesel price spike, disrupting global oil flows and refined-fuel supplies, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have helped tighten supplies but played a more limited role on the price.
“我更倾向于把这看作是一种转移责任、寻找替罪羊的操作，而不是在选举前真正试图抑制价格的举动，”美国外交关系协会莫里斯·R·格林伯格中心主任爱德华·菲什曼说。
“I sort of see it as a blame-shifting kind of scapegoating operation, more than a genuine attempt to moderate prices in the lead-up to the election,” said Edward Fishman, director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center at the Council on Foreign Relations.