与美国开战七个月后，伊朗领导层感受到压力。文/彼得·马丁、帕特里克·赛克斯、菲奥娜·麦克唐纳、萨米·阿德吉尔尼伊斯兰共和国通胀率接近90%，尽管面临伊朗袭击威胁，霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输正在恢复，而唐纳德·特朗普总统正向该地区增派另一艘航空母舰及1万名水兵和陆战队员。美国封锁正扼杀伊朗原油出口，外交僵局依旧。
Seven months into war with the US, Iran’s leaders are feeling the strain.
即使对于一个习惯了制裁和经济困境的政权而言，这也是一种惩罚性的组合拳。
By Peter Martin, Patrick Sykes, Fiona MacDonald and Samy Adghirni Inflation in the Islamic Republic is almost 90%, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering despite the threat of Iranian attacks, and President Donald Trump is sending another aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the region. A US blockade is choking off Iran’s crude exports, while diplomacy remains deadlocked.
这种施压至关重要，因为它可能迫使伊朗做出选择：做出让步以尝试重启和谈，或升级已损害其经济的冲突。特朗普的国内局势可能会影响德黑兰的考量。这位美国领导人自身也陷入困境，油价徘徊在每桶100美元左右，高昂燃油价格在11月中期选举前损害美国消费者利益。
Even for a regime accustomed to sanctions and economic hardship, that is a punishing combination.
“每个人都有崩溃点，伊朗也不例外，”科威特大学助理教授、伦敦查塔姆研究所副研究员巴德尔·阿尔-赛义夫通过电话表示。他援引伊朗近期提出的为期七天的停火提议，以及彭博社关于外长阿拉格齐建议恢复核查员进入权的报道，作为压力加剧的证据。
The squeeze matters because it could force Iran into a choice: make concessions to try to revive peace talks or escalate a conflict that’s already damaging its economy. Trump’s domestic situation will likely influence Tehran’s thinking. The US leader also is in a bind, with oil around $100 a barrel and high fuel prices hurting US consumers ahead of the November midterm elections.
“讽刺的是，这种压力可能产生截然相反的反应：让步或先发制人的打击，”他补充道。
“Everyone has a breaking point, and Iran is no exception,” Bader Al-Saif, assistant professor at Kuwait University and associate fellow at London-based Chatham House, said by phone. He cited Iran’s recent proposal of a seven-day truce and a Bloomberg report that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has suggested restoring access to nuclear inspectors as evidence of the increasing burden.
据一位不愿透露姓名以便坦诚发言的德黑兰官员称，伊朗经济形势极其痛苦，但该国正在适应。这位官员表示，伊斯兰共和国正为可能比以往更大规模的美国轰炸行动做准备，但具备应对能力。
“The irony is that such pressure can yield opposing responses: concessions or a preemptive strike,” he added.
在整个战争期间，伊朗最具威慑力的手段便是能够有效封锁霍尔木兹海峡——这条能源、大宗商品及其他物资运输的关键通道。这一举措会推高石油和天然气价格，进而加剧全球通胀，给特朗普在国内带来政治压力。
Iran’s economic situation is extremely painful but the country is adapting, according to one Tehran official, who asked not to be identified so they could speak candidly. The Islamic Republic is preparing for a fresh US bombing campaign, potentially greater than before, but has the ability to respond, the official said.
不过，伊朗对这条航道的控制力及其限制海湾阿拉伯国家石油出口的能力正在逐渐减弱。据彭博社整理的油轮追踪数据显示，9月份沙特的原油日出口量升至约610万桶，而8月份这一数值仅为340万桶。摩根大通估计，中东地区的原油日运输量已恢复至1750万桶，相当于战前水平的98%。
Iran’s biggest source of leverage throughout the war has been its ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for energy, commodity and other supplies. That drives up the price of oil and gas and fuels global inflation, imposing a political cost on Trump at home.
然而，关于伊朗是否仍能掌控这一海上要道，各方说法不一。该地区一位高级防务官员称，伊朗依然对霍尔木兹海峡拥有较大控制权；另一位高级能源官员则强调，由于多艘油轮遭到袭击，伊朗的控制力正在减弱。
But Iran’s grip over the waterway — and its ability to constrain Gulf Arab oil exports — is weakening. Saudi crude exports jumped to about 6.1 million barrels a day in September from 3.4 million in August, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. JPMorgan estimates Middle East crude shipments have recovered to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of prewar levels.
据彭博社本周早些时候报道，伊朗官员认为在11月3日美国中期选举前达成和平协议的可能性微乎其微，并预计选举后局势极有可能进一步升级。据伊朗国家广播机构报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队周五宣称，已做好准备对美国或以色列的任何挑衅行为作出“迅速、严厉且令其后悔的回应”。
Still, there are conflicting accounts about whether Iran still holds the upper hand over the maritime chokepoint. One senior defense official in the region said that Iran retains a large degree of control over the strait. Another senior energy official stressed that Iran’s grip was weakening with frequent hits on tankers.
“双方总体上都希望达成协议，但目前距离达成一致反而越来越远，”查塔姆研究所副研究员阿尼塞·巴西里·塔布里齐在接受彭博电视采访时说道。随着海湾阿拉伯国家的石油出口量增加，“与几周前相比，美国在霍尔木兹海峡的处境更为有利。”与此同时，伊朗在本国国内也面临严峻的经济困境：通胀率居高不下，普通民众的实际购买力不断下降；过去两个月里，伊朗里亚尔对美元汇率贬值约25%，导致进口商品价格大幅上涨。
Iranian officials see little prospect of a peace deal before the US midterms on Nov. 3 and believe there’s a high chance of escalation after that, Bloomberg reported earlier this week. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Friday that it’s ready to deliver an “immediate, painful, regret-inducing response” to any aggression by the US or Israel, state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported.
据彭博社初步估算，9月伊朗首次自战争爆发以来未向油轮装载任何原油，切断了一个重要的收入来源。伊朗仍在从浮动储存中向部分中国炼厂供油，但这些库存最终将耗尽。
“Both sides generally want an agreement, but they are moving further apart rather than closer,” Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told Bloomberg Television. With Gulf Arab states’ oil exports rising, “the US feels stronger in the Strait of Hormuz compared to a few weeks ago.”Iran’s fading influence over the strait comes on top of a dire economic situation at home. Soaring inflation is eroding what ordinary Iranians can afford, and the rial has lost about 25% of its value against the dollar in the past two months, making imported goods more expensive.
自美国封锁其港口以来，伊朗已将更多贸易转向陆地边境和里海，但运力限制意味着这些路线无法完全抵消来自波斯湾的压力。官方媒体报道，9月与土耳其和巴基斯坦的过境点卡车流量增加且出现延误，而里海则为德黑兰提供了一条通往其盟友俄罗斯的海上通道。
Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September for the first time since the war began, according to preliminary Bloomberg estimates, cutting off a vital source of revenue. It is still supplying some Chinese refiners from floating storage, but those stocks will eventually run down.
华盛顿正在拓宽其对战争的经济手段。10月1日，美国对伊朗最大的汽车制造商和几家铁路公司实施制裁。早前针对航空业的措施开始见效：9月下旬伊朗飞往阿拉伯联合酋长国的航班被叫停，因为各国政府和机场运营商应对二级制裁的威胁，飞往伊拉克、土耳其和阿曼的航班也受到干扰。
Since the start of the US blockade of its ports, Iran has redirected more trade via land borders and the Caspian Sea, but capacity limits mean those routes cannot fully offset the squeeze from the Persian Gulf. State media reported increased truck traffic and delays at crossings with Turkey and Pakistan in September, while the Caspian gives Tehran a sea link to its ally Russia.
这种经济负担对伊朗尤为危险，因为战争爆发仅在安全部队镇压全国性抗议活动几周后，那场抗议因物价飞涨和货币崩溃而起，导致数千名示威者丧生。政府目前试图在不重燃动荡的情况下缓解预算压力。
Washington is broadening its economic approach to the war. On Oct. 1, it imposed sanctions on Iran’s largest automakers and several rail companies. Earlier measures on the aviation sector are starting to bite: Iranian flights to the United Arab Emirates were halted in late September as governments and airport operators responded to the threat of secondary sanctions, and flights to Iraq, Turkey and Oman have also been disrupted.
9月，官员削减了部分汽油补贴——这一举措在2019年曾引发致命抗议。本周，德黑兰市政府通过其市属市场网络将12种基本食品的价格冻结六个月。
The economic burden is especially dangerous for Iran because the war began only weeks after security forces crushed nationwide protests over soaring prices and a collapsing currency, killing thousands of demonstrators. The government is now trying to ease the pressure on its budget without reigniting unrest.
军事边缘政策 随着中期选举临近，特朗普表现出重燃军事边缘政策的意愿。他本周表示，11月3日投票后对伊朗实施更重打击“很有可能”，同时五角大楼正派遣“西奥多·罗斯福”号航母及额外兵力前往中东。
In September, officials cut some gasoline subsidies — measures that had sparked deadly protests back in 2019. This week, Tehran’s municipality fixed the prices of 12 essential food items for six months through its network of municipal markets.
这艘舰船的抵达可能使美国在该地区拥有三个航母打击群，这种集中部署自2003年美国领导的伊拉克战争初期以来在该地区尚未见过。然而，目前尚不清楚一旦“罗斯福”号在未来几周抵达，其他航母中是否会有一艘离开。
Military Brinkmanship Trump has shown a renewed appetite for military brinkmanship as the midterms approach. He said this week that heavier strikes on Iran were “possible” after the Nov. 3 vote, while the Pentagon is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt as well as additional forces toward the Middle East.
“美国正在效仿伊朗的做法，既愿意达成协议，也准备重返实战，”科威特大学的巴德尔·阿尔-赛夫表示。“但如果双方都不让步，且无法就步骤顺序和明确让步达成一致，重返战争将不可避免。”
The ship’s arrival could give the US three carrier strike groups in the region, a concentration not seen in the area since the opening phase of the US-led war on Iraq in 2003. It’s unclear, however, whether one of the other carriers will leave once the Roosevelt arrives in the coming weeks.
特朗普曾多次威胁发动袭击，但最终并未实施。7月，他誓言要袭击桥梁和发电厂，以回应针对航运的袭击，却在最后一刻收手。即便如此，即将到来的中期选举以及选民对其处理战争方式的不满，正给他施加打破僵局的动力。
“The US is mirroring Iran’s approach, willing to strike a deal or go back to active combat,” said Kuwait University’s Bader Al-Saif. “But if both sides don’t give in and agree on sequencing and clear concessions, a return to war is inevitable.”Trump has repeatedly threatened attacks he ultimately did not carry out. In July, he vowed to hit bridges and power plants in response to attacks on shipping only to pull back at the last minute. Even so, the approaching midterms and voter disapproval of his handling of the war are giving him an incentive to break the stalemate.
伊朗或许不必永远忍受这种痛苦。它可能只需忍受到特朗普屈服为止。
Iran may not have to live with the pain forever. It may only have to live with it until Trump buckles.
“考虑到这给美国海军力量带来的非常现实的压力，美国长期坚持这一战略和努力的意愿仍存疑问，”美国国家情报委员会前近东副国家情报官乔纳森·帕尼科夫表示。
“Questions remain about US willingness to continue this strategy and effort over the long term given the very real strain it’s putting on US naval forces,” said Jonathan Panikoff, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East at the US National Intelligence Council.
他说：“目前占主导地位的伊朗‘强硬派’正在押注，他们能够承受更多国内痛苦，并等待美国在该地区的介入结束。”
Iran’s “hardliners currently dominating are betting that they can absorb more domestic pain and wait out US engagement in the region,” he said.