美国可能在中期选举后恢复对伊朗的大规模打击，迹象包括增兵、增加海军资产以及该地区警戒级别提高。
The US may resume major strikes against Iran after the midterms, with signs including more troops, extra naval assets and higher alerts in the region.
专家表示，这场冲突不可持续。美国的封锁施压正在损害伊朗，但也牵制了大量美军海军力量，并推高了国内燃油价格。
Experts say the conflict is not sustainable. US blockade pressure is hurting Iran, but it also ties up many US naval forces and raises fuel prices at home.
分析人士和特朗普表示，如果无法达成协议，可能会发动更多袭击，但他们警告，军事行动不太可能解决战争或改变伊朗的立场。
Analysts and Trump say more attacks may follow if no deal is reached, but they warn military action is unlikely to solve the war or change Iran’s stance.
AI生成 华盛顿——专家表示，美国似乎正准备恢复对伊朗的大规模打击，但对于双方而言，在这场毁灭性的冲突中不太可能存在军事解决方案。
AI generated WASHINGTON – The United States appears to be preparing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran, but there is unlikely to be a military solution for either side in the devastating conflict, experts say.
华盛顿和德黑兰的部队已陷入一种针对商船实施打击的模式，美国寻求强制封锁伊朗港口，而伊斯兰共和国试图控制关键的霍尔木兹海峡水道。
Washington and Tehran’s forces have settled into a pattern of strikes on commercial ships, with the United States seeking to enforce a blockade of Iran’s ports and the Islamic republic trying to exert control over the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.
自9月初以来，双方均未对陆基目标实施过大规模袭击，但这种情况可能很快就会改变。
Neither country has engaged in major attacks on land-based targets since early September, but that may soon change.
布鲁金斯学会外交政策项目主任苏珊·马洛尼表示：“我现在押注的可能性是，在中期选举后不久会发动袭击”，她指的是美国11月3日的选举。
“I’m banking now on the likelihood of strikes shortly after the midterms,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy programme at the Brookings Institution, referring to Nov 3 elections in the United States.
她指出，潜在迹象包括向中东地区调动更多美军资产和部队、向该地区美国人发出警告，以及以色列部队进入高度戒备状态。
She pointed to potential signs including the movement of additional US military assets and troops to the Middle East, warnings issued to Americans in the region, and a high alert status for Israeli forces.
此外，马洛尼说，唐纳德·特朗普总统“公开表示他不会在中期选举前发动袭击”，而且“这样做似乎不会帮他在选举中获益”。
Additionally, President Donald Trump “came out publicly and said that he wouldn’t strike before the midterms”, and “it wouldn’t seem to help him at the polls to do so”, Maloney said.
这场美以针对伊朗的战争在美国极不受欢迎，特别是因为它大幅推高了燃油价格，并可能在关键投票中拖累特朗普的共和党。
The US-Israeli war against Iran is largely unpopular in the United States, especially because it has sharply driven up fuel prices, and is likely to be a drag on Trump’s Republican Party in the key vote.
“从根本上说，目前的局势无法持续，”马洛尼表示，并指出美国的封锁“正在给伊朗人带来更大的痛苦”，而华盛顿则有大量海军资产被牵制在执行封锁任务上。
“Fundamentally, the situation isn’t sustainable in its current state,” Maloney said, noting that the US blockade is “creating greater pain for the Iranians”, while Washington has a large number of naval assets tied up in enforcing it.
特朗普于10月23日表示，“如果德黑兰不达成协议，我们可能会再搞一次小型的‘史诗狂怒’行动”——这是2月下旬发起的美国针对伊朗行动的代号——但未透露任何时间迹象。“难以预测”中东研究所高级研究员杰森·坎贝尔表示，“当然出现了近期迹象表明，重新发动打击可能即将到来”，或者“美国预计伊朗或其在也门的胡塞盟友将发动打击”。
Trump said on Oct 23 that “we may do another little Epic Fury” – the name for the US operation against Iran that was launched in late February – if Tehran does not make a deal, but gave no indication on timing. ‘Impossible to predict’Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said there have “certainly been recent signs that renewed strikes may be in the offing”, or that “the US is expecting strikes carried out by Iran” or their Houthi allies in Yemen.
他指出，计划部署“西奥多·罗斯福”号航母至中东——这至少暂时能将该地区的航母打击群数量增加至三个——以及决定向该地区再调遣一个海军陆战远征队。
He noted the planned deployment of the USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East – which could at least temporarily bring the number of carrier strike groups there to three – as well as the decision to dispatch another Marine Expeditionary Unit to the region.
坎贝尔还表示，以色列战机最近实施了一次“武力展示”，模拟了此前对伊朗的打击，并指出美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯已在以色列会见了总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。
Campbell also said Israeli warplanes recently carried out a “show of force” mimicking previous strikes on Iran, and noted that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.
然而，“重新发动打击的时机难以预测”，他说，同时指出“如果意图仅仅是施压伊朗回到谈判桌前，这承认是一系列大规模的行动”。
However, “timing here is impossible to predict”, he said of renewed strikes, while noting that “this is admittedly an expansive set of actions to take if the intent is to simply pressure Iran to the negotiating table”.
坎贝尔表示，特朗普的选择比冲突早期更加有限，该地区美军基地受损使得任何潜在的地面行动更加困难。
Campbell said Trump’s options are more limited than they were earlier in the conflict, with damage to US bases in the region having made any potential ground operation more difficult.
“此时，没有安全的地方部署此类行动所需的数千（某些情景下为数万）兵力，”他说。
“At this point, there is no safe place to stage the thousands (in some scenarios tens of thousands) of forces that would be required for such an operation,” he said.
马洛尼同时表示，“伊朗的大多数常规军事设施已经因之前的打击而遭到严重削弱”，这意味着任何新的军事行动很可能“将涉及更多针对民用基础设施和影响伊朗民众目标的打击”。但这——或任何类型的军事行动——都不太可能带来冲突的解决。
Maloney meanwhile said that “most of the conventional military sites (in Iran) have already been heavily degraded” by previous strikes, meaning any new campaign will likely “entail more strikes on civilian infrastructure and targets that impact the Iranian population”. But that – or any type of military action – is unlikely to bring about a resolution to the conflict.
“从一开始……这就是一场无法通过任何一方进一步升级来结束的战争，”马洛尼说。
“From the start... this has been a war that can’t be ended with further escalation on either side,” Maloney said.
坎贝尔表示赞同，称：“我看不出重新对伊朗发动类似战争前五十天的打击，将如何能改变伊朗政权的战略计算。”
Campbell agreed, saying: “I do not see how renewed strikes on Iran akin to the first fifty days of the war will move the strategic needle for the Iranian regime.”
他补充道：“他们已表现出愿意承受大量的物理打击，甚至一些针对关键混合设施甚至民用基础设施的目标变更，也不会显著改变这一点。”
“They have demonstrated a willingness to absorb a significant amount of physical pain and even some alterations to targeting that includes key mixed or even civilian infrastructure will not significantly change this,” he added.