两支美国航空母舰打击群目前在中东，第三支也正在途中。美国和印度已发布新的安全警告，据报道以色列还在伊朗边境附近进行了一次军事出动。在过去几周里，有几个明显的迹象表明美国和以色列可能会恢复对伊朗的打击，而这一次的力度将大得多。随着谈判陷入僵局且双方互发威胁，海湾地区可能正走向另一场军事对决。
Two US aircraft carrier strike groups are in the Middle East, with a third on the way. The US and India have issued fresh advisories, while Israel has reportedly conducted a military sortie near the Iranian border. Over the past few weeks, there have been several tell-tale signs that the US and Israel could resume strikes against Iran - this time with far greater force. With negotiations stalled and both sides exchanging threats, the Gulf could be heading towards another military showdown.
核心问题在于时间。专家们表示，美国和以色列在接下来两周内的选举可能会影响军事行动的时机。以色列的本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在10月27日面临他最艰难的选战。另一方面，美国中期选举将决定国会的控制权。
The key question is when. Experts have suggested that elections in the US and Israel in the next two weeks could influence the timing of the military action. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu faces his most toughest electoral battle on October 27. The US midterms, on the other hand, will determine control of Congress.
尽管唐纳德·特朗普此前曾承诺在11月3日大选前不会攻击伊朗，但他最近的威胁——包括提及“炸弹之母”——表明新一轮打击即将来临。他驻土耳其的大使甚至断言，美国“最早可能在本周末”打击伊朗。在好战言论和言辞升级之际，伊朗拒绝交出其浓缩铀并开放霍尔木兹海峡，这条至关重要的水道承担着全球20%的石油贸易。
While Donald Trump had earlier pledged not to attack Iran before the November 3 elections, his latest threats - including a reference to the "mother of all bombs" - suggest that a fresh round of strikes is imminent. His envoy to Turkiye even asserted that America could strike Iran "as soon as this weekend". The warmongering and escalating rhetoric come as Iran refuses to surrender its enriched uranium and open up the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that accounts for 20% of the global oil trade.
以下是我们认为表明中东可能正走向另一场军事对决的五个信号。第三艘美国航母正在途中美国已向中东派遣了第三支航空母舰打击群——“西奥多·罗斯福”号（USS Theodore Roosevelt）。随行的是“马金岛”号（USS Makin Island）两栖戒备群及其两艘两栖攻击舰。据美联社报道，它们一共搭载了7000多名水兵和2000多名海军陆战队员。
Here are five signals that we believe indicate the Middle East could be heading for another military showdown.THIRD US AIRCRAFT CARRIER ON WAYThe US has dispatched a third aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, to the Middle East. Accompanying it is the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, with its two amphibious landing ships. Together, they are carrying more than 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, according to a report in AP.
这意味着到11月初，该地区将出现数量异常庞大的美国海军存在，拥有超过2万名水兵和海军陆战队员以及数百架飞机，其中包括F-35战斗机。
This means that by early November, there would be an unusually high number of US naval presence in the region, with more than 20,000 sailors and Marines as well as hundreds of aircraft, including F-53s.
“乔治·H·W·布什”号（USS George HW Bush）和“乔治·华盛顿”号（USS George Washington）航空母舰目前正在该地区。这实际上为特朗普加强对伊朗的打击提供了广泛的选择，如果他决定确保霍尔木兹海峡的安全，甚至可能部署地面部队。然而，部分专家认为，向该地区增兵可能是特朗普对伊朗的谈判策略。美国总统还暗示可能动用所谓的“之母炸弹”来打击伊朗的能源基础设施和核设施。
The USS George HW Bush and the USS George Washington are presently in the region. This effectively gives Trump a wide range of options to ramp up attacks on Iran, or possibly deploy ground forces if he decides to secure Hormuz. However, a section of experts believe sending more troops to the region could be Trump's negotiating tactic with Iran. The US President has also teased unleashing the so-called 'mother of all bombs' to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.
GBU-43B大型空爆弹（MOAB）是有史以来开发的最大的非核炸弹之一。该炸弹重约9800公斤，能够在几秒钟内将隧道、洞穴和加固掩体炸得粉碎。伊朗加强军事演习与此同时，据美国有线电视网（CNN）报道，伊朗一直在全国各地举行军事演习，其中包括一次性发射30枚弹道导弹。来自德黑兰的声音表明，其指挥官正在为不可避免的敌对行动恢复做准备。
The GBU-43B Massive Ordnance Air Blast, or MOAB, is among the largest non-nuclear bombs ever developed. Weighing around 9,800 kg, the bomb can blow tunnels, caves, and fortified structures to smithereens in seconds.IRAN RAMPS UP MILITARY EXERCISESIran, meanwhile, has been conducting military exercises across the country, including launching 30 ballistic missiles in one go, CNN reported. Voices from Tehran suggest that its commanders are preparing for an inevitable resumption of hostilities.
本周早些时候，作为针锋相对的举措，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队展示了一种新武器——“之母炸弹”。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发言人侯赛因·莫哈比对当地媒体表示：“这对敌人来说是新鲜事物。”
Earlier this week, in a tit-for-tat move, the IRGC teased a new weapon - the 'father of all bombs'. "This is something new for the enemy," IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohabi told local media.
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队还威胁称，如果发生军事升级，将使用其新型远程导弹。分析人士指出，这些导弹可以打到美国在英国的空军基地，或是德国的拉姆施泰因后勤枢纽——这是美国本土以外最大的军事设施。
The IRGC has also threatened to use its new long-range missiles in case of a military escalation. Analysts suggested that these missiles could reach US airbases in Britain, or the logistics hub in Germany's Ramstein - the largest US military installation outside America.
本月早些时候，美国将驻扎在英国的所有远程轰炸机调回了本土基地。
Earlier this month, the US moved all of its long-range bombers stationed in the UK back to their home base.
伊朗国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛·雷扎伊断言，这一次将有“零红线”。
Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's National Security Council, has asserted that there would be "zero red lines" this time.
雷伊萨i警告称，目标将包括海湾地区各处的石油设施、海底电缆、数据中心和人工智能设施。美国发布安全警告我们认为表明冲突可能恢复的另一个关键信号，是美国驻中东各地外交使团向美国公民发出的新一轮安全警告。
Rezaei has warned that targets would include oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres and AI facilities across the Gulf.US ISSUES SECURITY ADVISORYAnother key signal that we feel indicates a possible resumption of the conflict is the fresh round of security warnings issued by US diplomatic missions across the Middle East to American citizens.
过去一周里，美国驻沙特阿拉伯、巴林、卡塔尔和阿联酋的大使馆发出了敌对行动迅速升级且毫无预警的警报。这些公告敦促美国人做好应对可能的航班取消和领空关闭的准备。
Over the past week, alerts have been issued by US embassies in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE of hostilities escalating rapidly and without warning. The advisories urged Americans to prepare for possible flight cancellations and airspace closures.
伊朗支持的胡塞武装在沙特阿拉伯发动的袭击进一步加剧了紧张局势，开辟了冲突的又一个战线。
The Iran-backed Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia have only added to the tensions, opening another front in the conflict.
10月21日，美国国务院下令部分外交官及其家属撤离其驻沙特阿拉伯的使团。有关方面也正在计划撤离美国在地区内其他使团的外交官家属。
On October 21, the US Department of State ordered some diplomats and their family members to depart from its missions in Saudi Arabia. Plans are also afoot to withdraw family members from other US missions in the region.
此类范围广泛的公告曾在3月份发布过，当时德黑兰为报复美以打击行动，对海湾地区的美国设施发动了袭击。印度向国民发出警告，航班取消在以往各轮冲突期间，印度往往是最早发布安全警告的国家之一，有时甚至在敌对行动开始之前就已发布。
Such wide-ranging advisories were issued in March when Tehran launched attacks on US facilities across the Gulf in retaliation for US-Israel strikes.INDIA ALERTS NATIONALS, FLIGHTS CANCELLEDDuring previous rounds of conflict, India has often been among the first nations to issue security advisories, sometimes even before hostilities began.
本周早些时候就发出了这样一份公告，印度要求其在沙特阿拉伯的国民采取“适当防范措施”，并警告可能发生空袭。该公告是在胡塞武装导弹袭击利雅得哈立德国王国际机场导致一名印度国民死亡、数人受伤之后发出的。
One such advisory went out earlier this week, with India asking its nationals in Saudi Arabia to take "due precautions" and warning of aerial attacks. The advisory was issued after a Houthi missile strike on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport killed an Indian national and left several injured.
此外，所有印度航空公司均已取消飞往沙特阿拉伯的航班，直至10月31日。滞留在麦加和麦地那的大约4000名印度朝觐者也正在被撤离。以色列战机在伊朗附近进行出动飞行与此同时，以色列也没有保持沉默。据《阿克西奥斯报》的一篇报道称，本周早些时候，数十架以色列战斗机在伊朗边境附近进行了出动飞行。
Additionally, all Indian airlines have cancelled their flights to Saudi Arabia till October 31. Around 4,000 Indian pilgrims stranded in Mecca and Medina are also being evacuated.ISRAELI JETS CONDUCT SORTIES NEAR IRANIsrael, meanwhile, has not kept quiet. According to a report in Axios, dozens of Israeli fighter jets conducted sorties close to the Iranian border earlier this week.
此举正值美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡举行秘密会晤之际。报道称，以色列的这场军事演习出动了数十架战斗机和加油机。战机飞行的路线与针对伊朗的潜在打击相符，途经叙利亚和伊拉克领空。
It coincided with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth's hush-hush meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The report said the Israeli exercise involved dozens of fighter jets and refuelling aircraft. The jets followed a flight path consistent with a potential strike against Iran, passing through Syrian and Iraqi airspace.
据Axios报道，官员们表示，美国知悉这些飞行任务，以色列称这是一场旨在“展示力量”的训练演习。不过，美国消息人士称，以色列可能是想挑衅伊朗向其战机开火。这随后将为对伊朗发动打击提供借口。
Officials said the US was aware of the sorties, which Israel called a training exercise intended for "power projection", Axios reported. However, US sources said Israel might have wanted to provoke Iran to fire at their aircraft. It would have then provided a justification for launching strikes against Iran.
如果分开来看，这些可能只是孤立事件。但综合在一起，它们便形成了一种模式。中东地区正在酝酿着什么，这些迹象难以忽视。——完
Separately seen, these may be isolated incidents. But together, they form a pattern. Something is building in the Middle East, and the signs are hard to ignore.- Ends