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外交官争分夺秒阻止与伊朗局势升级Diplomats Race to Head Off Escalation With Iran

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德黑兰,伊朗最高领袖的画像。Portraits of Iran's supreme leader in Tehran.

迪拜——中东调解人正争分夺秒地恢复与伊朗的谈判,担心随着美国向该地区增派另一艘航空母舰、以色列警告已为可能的新一轮打击制定计划,敌对行动可能重燃。

DUBAI—Middle East mediators are scrambling to revive talks with Iran, fearful that hostilities could flare anew as the U.S. moves another aircraft carrier to the region and Israel warns that it has prepared plans for possible new strikes.

特朗普总统表示,美国不会在11月3日的美国中期选举前袭击伊朗。但他也发出了鹰派信号,周日在社交媒体上威胁称,除非伊朗迅速改变其行为,否则美国和以色列“将很快完成任务”。熟悉规划的官员透露,美军一直在准备一系列打击伊朗的选项。目前有两个航母打击群位于中东,第三个正从太平洋赶来。目前尚不清楚这三个打击群是否都将留在中东。

President Trump has said the U.S. won’t attack Iran before U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. But he has also sounded hawkish notes, threatening Sunday on social media that unless Iran rapidly changes its behavior, the U.S. and Israel “will soon finish the job.”The U.S. military has been preparing a range of options to strike Iran, officials familiar with the planning said. Two aircraft carrier strike groups are currently in the Middle East, with a third on the way from the Pacific. It is unclear if all three will stay in the Middle East.

官员称,美国还在调入另一艘满载海军陆战队员的两栖攻击舰,并已将一些驻扎在该地区基地的部队转移至安全地带,因为伊朗和胡塞武装已威胁海湾盟友。胡塞武装已对沙特阿拉伯发动袭击,国务院最近下令在沙特的非紧急美国政府雇员及其家属撤离。

The U.S. is also bringing in another amphibious assault ship loaded with Marines and has moved some troops off bases in the region and out of harm’s way as Iran and Houthi militants have threatened Gulf allies, the officials said. The Houthis have launched attacks on Saudi Arabia, and the State Department recently ordered nonemergency U.S. government employees and their family members there to leave.

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡一直在公开推动重启对伊朗的打击。一位知情人士透露,以色列军方本月早些时候曾为一场持续数日的轰炸行动做准备,该行动将打击民用、核设施和政权目标。

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing publicly to restart strikes on Iran. His military prepared for a multiday bombing campaign earlier this month that would have struck at civilian, nuclear and regime targets, a person briefed on the planning said.

该人士称,由于特朗普在即将到来的国会选举前公开反对重启战争,这次袭击未能实施。此前《金融时报》曾报道过以色列计划中的打击行动。

The attack didn’t happen after Trump publicly opposed restarting the war before the coming congressional elections, the person said. The planned Israeli strikes were previously reported by the Financial Times.

白宫发言人安娜·凯利表示,美国不会“在中期选举之前的任何时间”攻击伊朗。【视频】在一艘正为针对伊朗的潜在行动做准备的美国航母上,负责中东事务的美国中央司令部发言人蒂姆·霍金斯上尉表示,军方定期调动资产,出于作战安全原因不予讨论。以色列总理办公室未回复置评请求。

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said that U.S. wouldn’t be attacking Iran “at any time prior to the midterm elections.” [video] Aboard a U.S. Carrier Preparing for Potential Operations Against Iran Capt. Tim Hawkins, spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East, said the military regularly moves assets and doesn’t discuss them for operational security reasons. The office of Israel’s prime minister didn’t reply to a request for comment. Regional officials said they are taking the risk of escalation seriously given Trump’s threats and Iran’s unwillingness to bend to U.S. demands.

地区官员表示,鉴于特朗普的威胁以及伊朗拒绝屈从于美国要求,他们正严肃对待局势升级的风险。美国正施压伊朗就其核计划进入谈判,而德黑兰希望将谈话范围限制在重新开放霍尔木兹海峡上。

The U.S. is pressing Iran to enter negotiations over its nuclear program, while Tehran wants to limit talks to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The diplomatic track has been stuck for months.

外交渠道已陷入僵局数月。伊朗大幅增加了对海峡内船只的袭击。然而,在美军的指引和护航下,航运公司设法通过该狭窄水道,石油运输量反而激增。

Iran has sharply increased strikes against ships in the strait. Oil flows through the narrow waterway have surged, however, as shippers, with the guidance and protection of U.S. forces, manage to make their way through. At the same time, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen have launched a wave of missile and drone attacks on energy facilities and airports in Saudi Arabia.

与此同时,伊朗在也门的胡塞盟友发动了一波针对沙特阿拉伯能源设施和机场的导弹和无人机袭击。

The U.S. has raised the level of economic pressure on Tehran by blockading oil shipments and tightening sanctions, but that has so far failed to bring about a breakthrough.

美国通过封锁石油运输和收紧制裁加大了对德黑兰的经济施压,但迄今未能带来突破。

Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, flew to Tehran on Tuesday followed by a delegation of Qatari diplomats in an effort to break the deadlock.

周二,巴基斯坦陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔在德黑兰与伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬在一起。Asim Munir, Pakistan’s army chief, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on Tuesday.

巴基斯坦陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔于周二飞抵德黑兰,随后卡塔尔外交官代表团也随行前往,试图打破僵局。

Mediators have floated offers including the release of some Iranian funds frozen overseas with interest in exchange for nuclear concessions such as allowing international inspectors, some of the mediators said.

调解人提出的方案包括:以允许国际核查员入境等核让步为交换,释放部分冻结在海外的伊朗资金并支付利息,据一些调解人透露。其他想法包括将伊朗的浓缩铀储备转移至俄罗斯,他们表示。

Other ideas include transferring Iran’s enriched uranium stocks to Russia, they said. Iranian diplomats initially showed some openness to the idea of allowing international inspectors to return, but they were shut down by Iranian hard-liners, some of the mediators said.

伊朗外交官最初对允许国际核查员返回表现出一定的开放态度,但被伊朗强硬派否决了,几位调解人说。他们说,伊朗官员对调解人传达的信息感到愤怒,即他们需要进行一轮严肃谈判,以避免美国恢复对伊朗的袭击。

Iranian officials were angered by the message from mediators that they would need to engage in a serious round of negotiations to head off a resumption of U.S. attacks on Iran, they said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in an opinion column in the Financial Times that Iran is only willing to negotiate if the U.S. gives up its military options and would respond aggressively across the region if attacked.

伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐在《金融时报》的一篇评论文章中写道,只有当美国放弃军事选项时,伊朗才愿意谈判,如果遭到袭击,将在整个地区进行激烈反击。

“I am duty-bound to warn that any further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz or elsewhere in the region will put civilian lives and the wellbeing of all regional states and the global economy at great risk,” he wrote.

他写道:“我有责任警告,霍尔木兹海峡周边或该地区其他地方的任何进一步升级,都将使平民生命以及该地区所有国家和全球经济的福祉面临巨大风险。”

The warning echoed private threats from Iranian officials that any new round of escalation would be costly and would target Gulf energy infrastructure and other economic assets along with U.S. bases, some of the mediators said.

几位调解人说,这一警告呼应了伊朗官员的私下威胁,即任何新一轮升级都将代价高昂,并将以海湾能源基础设施和其他经济资产以及美国基地为目标。

The U.S. has around 20 warships in the region right now.

美国目前在该地区部署了约20艘军舰。预计即将到来的航母打击群和海军陆战队部队将使总数增至两打以上(如果其他舰船不轮换撤离),这将显著扩大海军进行全天候行动的能力,并为特朗普提供两栖登陆或其他任务的更多选项。

The incoming carrier strike group and Marine unit are expected to bring the total to more than two dozen if other ships don’t rotate out, significantly expanding the Navy’s ability to conduct round-the-clock operations and give Trump more options for amphibious landings or other missions. Trump has publicly mulled attacking Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, and he has previously ordered strikes on Iranian targets near the strait to hamper Iran’s ability to attack commercial ships.

特朗普曾公开考虑袭击伊朗的“镐山”核设施,此前他曾下令袭击海峡附近的伊朗目标,以削弱伊朗袭击商船的能力。

Netanyahu has been pushing to restart strikes in Iran, a person briefed on his thinking said.

一位了解内塔尼亚胡想法的人士说,内塔尼亚胡一直在推动重启对伊朗的打击。以色列军方一直在忙着更新目标清单,称担心伊朗在重建基础设施、导弹和无人机能力方面取得快速进展。

Israel’s military has been busy updating its target list, saying it is worried Iran is making fast progress rebuilding its infrastructure and missile and drone capabilities. Israel presented U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with strike targets based on new intelligence during a meeting Monday at an Israeli air base, the person said.

以色列周一在一处空军基地举行的会议上,根据新情报向美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯提交了打击目标,知情人士透露。

The country’s military has been on high alert for several weeks.

以色列军方已处于高度戒备状态数周。大量美军人员仍驻扎在以色列,空中加油机部署在以色列主要机场及南部空军基地。

A large number of U.S. military personnel remain in Israel and refueling tankers are stationed at Israel’s main airport as well as air force bases in the south. The U.S. and Israel carried out more than 20,000 strikes on Iran during the most active phase of the war.

在战争最活跃阶段,美以双方对伊朗实施了超过2万次打击。伊朗以密集导弹和无人机袭击波及海湾地区予以回击,击中关键能源设施、机场、美军基地以及美国大使馆和领事馆。拦截这一轮攻势消耗了用于防御未来袭击的导弹拦截弹库存。

Iran responded by raining missiles and drones across the Gulf, hitting crucial energy infrastructure as well as airports, U.S. bases and American embassies and consulates. Defending against that barrage has eaten into stockpiles of missile interceptors needed to fend off future attacks. Trump has ramped up threats of attacks on Iran previously only to back down and try to cut a deal—most recently in late July.

特朗普此前曾多次升级对伊朗的攻击威胁,随后又退让并试图达成协议——最近一次是在7月下旬。

“We want to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon,” Hegseth said on Tuesday after his trip to the Middle East.

“我们要确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器,”赫格塞斯周二在结束中东之行后表示,“如果他们不愿放弃,且总统要求我们采取进一步行动,我们已做好准备。”

“If they’re not willing to give it up, and the president asks us to go even further, we’re prepared.”

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