字号·· | 护眼
印度斯坦时报

美国警告海湾国家:中期选举后或对伊朗重启短暂而激烈的战争U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

迪拜——据知情人士透露,美国已告知多个海湾阿拉伯国家,在美中期选举后做好准备,应对一场短暂而激烈的军事行动。通过外交和军事渠道的这些沟通,是越来越多迹象之一,显示美国和以色列正准备发动新一轮针对伊朗的大规模战斗行动,冒着局势大幅升级的风险,旨在削弱德黑兰的实力并迫其走向谈判桌。

DUBAI—The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said. The communications through diplomatic and military channels are among a growing number of indications that the U.S. and Israel are readying to launch a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, risking a major escalation in hopes of degrading Tehran’s strength and pushing it toward negotiations.

知情官员称,美军正从得克萨斯州调入一套“爱国者”系统以强化导弹防御,并已将部队从易受攻击的基地转移,以备升级。知情官员还表示,驻地区美军一直在补充弹药,轰炸机和战斗机正准备实施打击。此外,还有一个航母打击群和一个海军陆战队远征部队也准备于下月加入在中东行动的约20艘其他军舰组成的舰队,尽管部分舰艇可能会轮换离开。

The U.S. military is bringing in a Patriot system from Texas to beef up its missile defenses and has moved troops off bases where they were vulnerable in preparation for an escalation, officials familiar with those moves said.U.S. forces in the region have been restocking their munitions, and bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes, some of the officials said. An additional aircraft carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit are also poised to join an armada of roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month, although some ships could rotate out.

知情人士称,特朗普总统尚未决定是否付诸行动,但倾向于在选后发动大规模袭击,目标可能包括伊朗基础设施和核设施。另一种选择是尝试达成协议。地区调解人的外交斡旋仍在继续,但迄今未见成果。

President Trump hasn’t decided to go ahead but is leaning toward a large postelection attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, people familiar with his thinking said. The alternative would be to try to cut a deal. Diplomatic efforts by regional mediators continued but had yet to bear fruit.“We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said at a rally last week, referring to the heavy U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign in the spring.

特朗普上周在一次集会上说:“我们可能会再搞一次小型的‘史诗之怒’行动,要么他们就会同意。”他指的是春季美以发动的大规模轰炸行动。

“Or they’ll agree.”

白宫表示,不会就“可能存在也可能不存在的敏感军事计划”置评。

The White House said it wouldn’t comment on “sensitive military plans that may or may not exist.”“President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” the White House said.

白宫称:“特朗普总统将所有选项摆在桌面上,以确保伊朗永远无法拥有核武器。”总统已表示,不会在中期选举前袭击伊朗。

The president has said he won’t attack Iran before the midterms.

知情人士称,这些行动和相关规划旨在为特朗普提供选项,以便他决定实施打击时可用。

The moves and related planning are meant to give Trump options should he decide to carry out a strike, people familiar with the planning said.

美国国防部表示,其职责是提供此类选项。《华尔街日报》报道称,以色列也已准备好新一轮袭击的计划和目标。总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡一直在推动恢复空袭,希望削弱伊朗实力,最终推翻其政权。恢复空袭将意味着特朗普政府从经济施压战略的转向。更严厉的制裁加上海上封锁,已切断伊朗数月的石油销售,瘫痪其大部分空中联系,并遏制了陆路贸易,加剧了该国本已失控下滑的经济困境。

The Defense Department said its job is to deliver such options. Israel also has prepared plans and targets for a new attack, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to push for a resumption of strikes in hopes of degrading Iran’s strength and ultimately toppling the regime. A return to airstrikes would mean a pivot from the Trump administration’s economic pressure campaign. Tighter sanctions coupled with a naval blockade have cut off Iran’s oil sales for months, shut down much of its air links and cut into overland trade, tightening the squeeze on the country’s already spiraling economy.“If there is a need to target a growing threat like missile reconstitution, President Trump should make that case publicly and with as much detail as possible,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a U.S. think tank.

“如果有必要针对导弹重建等不断增长的威胁采取行动,特朗普总统应公开提出理由,并尽可能提供详细信息,”美国智库保卫民主基金会伊朗项目高级主任贝纳姆·本·塔莱布说。“否则,目前美国通过维持制裁和封锁掌握着制胜筹码,应坚持当前路线。”

“Otherwise, at the moment, the U.S. has a winning hand through maintaining sanctions and the blockade. It should stay the course.”

许多分析人士认为,伊朗不太可能在进一步袭击下屈服。在战争最活跃阶段,伊朗经受住了美以双方2万多次袭击。尽管如此,伊朗仍继续在波斯湾袭击船只、袭击美军和军舰,并在谈判桌上提出苛刻条件。

“我认为以色列和美国持续犯下的最大错误之一,是假设对伊朗的又一轮打击——包括袭击关键基础设施或清除高级官员——能以某种方式推翻政权,”以色列前军事情报官员丹尼·西特里诺维奇说。

Many analysts believe Iran isn’t likely to capitulate under further attacks. Iran weathered more than 20,000 strikes by the U.S. and Israel during the most active phase of the war. It nevertheless has continued to attack ships in the Persian Gulf, target U.S. troops and warships, and bring tough demands to the negotiating table.“I believe one of the biggest mistakes Israel and the United States continue to make is assuming that another round of strikes against Iran, including attacks on critical infrastructure or the elimination of senior officials, could somehow bring down the regime,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official.

他说,进一步轰炸可能导致政权更加固执己见,并更坚定地推进其导弹和核计划。

《华尔街日报》记者谢尔比·霍利迪登上“乔治·华盛顿”号航母,该舰正在阿拉伯海执行任务,参与美国对伊朗的战争。

Further bombing could cause the regime to further dig in and become more committed to its missile and nuclear programs, he said.WSJ’s Shelby Holliday goes onboard the USS George Washington as it operates in the Arabian Sea, conducting missions in the U.S. war against Iran.

照片:Eve Hartley美国和以色列在2025年6月的短暂冲突中摧毁了伊朗核计划的大部分设施。国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·格罗西周二在联合国安理会表示,该机构尚未发现任何修复或重建这两次战争中受损设施的活动。但他表示,核查员无法进入这些设施进行核查,且国际原子能机构未能核实伊朗是否转移了核材料。

Photo: Eve HartleyThe U.S. and Israel destroyed much of Iran’s nuclear program in the shorter conflict of June 2025. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday that his agency hasn’t identified any activity to repair or reconstruct any of the facilities damaged by attacks in either of the two wars. But he said his inspectors haven’t had access to the facilities to check and said the IAEA hasn’t been able to verify that Iran hasn’t diverted nuclear material.

美国一直推动伊朗允许核查员返回,但伊朗予以拒绝。引发担忧的剩余地点之一——“镐山”位于数百英尺岩石之下。战略与国际研究中心的国防与安全分析师塞思·琼斯表示,特朗普可以利用新一轮打击宣称胜利,然后减少美国在战争中的介入,即使这些打击无法造成决定性打击。“我不认为有什么能永久挫败他们的计划,”琼斯谈到伊朗的核工作时说,但打击将允许特朗普“开始抽身,并宣称你再次挫败了伊朗的核计划”。

The U.S. has pushed Iran to allow inspectors to return, but it has resisted. One of the remaining sites that has raised concern—Pickaxe Mountain—sits under hundreds of feet of rock. Trump could use a fresh round of strikes to declare victory and then reduce America’s involvement in the war, even if those strikes don’t deliver a decisive blow, said Seth Jones, a defense and security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.“I don’t think anything is going to permanently set back their program,” Jones said of Iran’s nuclear work, but strikes would allow Trump to “start to walk away and say that you had again set back Iran’s nuclear program this time.”

伊朗通过公开和私下渠道警告称,将对任何袭击以对该地区经济和民用目标实施严厉打击作为回应。战争前它曾发出类似威胁,随后袭击了美国基地和外交设施,以及海湾地区的能源设施和机场。如果伊朗这次进行报复,将发生在美国及其海湾盟友正忙着补充导弹防御库存之际,这些库存因战争至今伊朗的多轮袭击而紧张。

Iran has warned through public and private channels that it would respond to any attack with harsh strikes on economic and civilian targets across the region. It made similar threats ahead of the war, then hit U.S. bases and diplomatic facilities as well as energy facilities and airports across the Gulf. Any Iranian retaliation this time would come as the U.S. and its Gulf allies are scrambling to restock supplies of missile defenses strained by waves of Iranian attacks so far in the war.

尽管美国和以色列造成了破坏,伊朗仍保留着数百至数千枚导弹的库存,并利用战斗间歇期加强防御并制定新的报复计划。该国正利用储备零部件组装新的弹道导弹。

Despite the damage done by the U.S. and Israel, Iran retains a stockpile of hundreds to thousands of missiles and has used the lull in fighting to shore up its defenses and prepare new plans for retaliation. The country is assembling new ballistic missiles from stockpiled parts.

以色列官员对伊朗重建的速度感到担忧。中东调解方正紧急行动,试图重启与伊朗的谈判,以阻止新一轮战斗爆发。迄今为止,他们的努力收效甚微,美国坚持要讨论伊朗的核计划,而德黑兰方面则为恢复谈判提出了强硬要求。请致信Summer Said(summer.said@wsj.com)、Shelby Holliday(shelby.holliday@wsj.com)、Benoit Faucon(benoit.faucon@wsj.com)和Anat Peled(anat.peled@wsj.com)。

Israeli officials are concerned by the speed with which Iran has been rebuilding. Middle East mediators are scrambling to revive talks with Iran to head off a new wave of combat. So far they have had little luck, with the U.S. insisting on discussing Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran laying out tough demands for resuming talks. Write to Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com, Shelby Holliday at shelby.holliday@wsj.com, Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com and Anat Peled at anat.peled@wsj.com

阅读媒体原文 ↗