伊朗在两周内至少袭击了霍尔木兹海峡附近的24艘商船，战争研究所（ISW）周四表示，与此同时，两艘美国航空母舰正在阿拉伯海行动，双方官员发出公开警告，称可能重新爆发大规模敌对行动。英国海上贸易行动中心（UKMTO）是皇家海军负责监测商船安全的机构，周一至周三期间报告了至少七起进一步事件。华盛顿的智库表示，这些袭击表明，尽管美国对伊朗的军事基础设施进行了打击，伊朗仍保留了袭击航运的能力，并引用一名美国军方官员的话称，伊朗海军力量通过使用小艇和瞭望员来识别船只，以适应雷达系统受到重大损害的情况。
Iran targeted at least 24 commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in a two-week period, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Thursday, as two US aircraft carriers operate in the Arabian Sea and officials on both sides issue public warnings of a possible return to large-scale hostilities. Britain's Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a Royal Navy body that monitors merchant shipping safety, reported at least seven further incidents between Monday and Wednesday. The Washington-based think tank said the attacks show Iran still retains the ability to target shipping despite US strikes on its military infrastructure, and cited a US military official as saying Iranian naval forces have adapted by using small boats and spotters to identify vessels after significant damage to their radar systems.
在德黑兰，伊朗高级军事官员最近几天发出警告。伊朗革命卫队副司令穆斯塔法·伊扎迪少将周四表示，伊朗“正以力量前进，并准备好实施最强大的行动。”伊朗革命卫队发言人侯赛因·莫希比周三表示，对伊朗发动新战争“对美国来说是不理性的”，但“这种冲突的可能性绝对存在。”伊朗陆军总司令阿米尔·哈塔米表示，武装部队已准备好应对“任何战斗”，并警告称，任何对伊朗基础设施的攻击都将导致对以色列及其盟友目标的比例性打击。
In Tehran, senior military officials have issued warnings in recent days. Major General Mostafa Izadi, deputy commander of the IRGC, said on Thursday that Iran "is advancing with strength and is ready to carry out the most powerful operations." Guards spokesman Hossein Mohibi said on Wednesday that a new war against Iran "would be irrational for the United States" but that "the possibility of such a conflict absolutely exists." Iranian army commander-in-chief Amir Hatami said the armed forces were ready for "any battle" and warned that any attack on Iranian infrastructure would bring proportional strikes on Israeli and allied targets.
伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书莫赫森·雷扎伊周日在接受Press TV采访时表示，如果敌对行动恢复，美国的目标，包括数据中心和人工智能基础设施，将“在射程范围内”，并称华盛顿最近的外交回应是不够的。美国海军学院周二确认，乔治·华盛顿号和乔治·H·W·布什号航空母舰正在阿拉伯海行动。布什号在访问泰国普吉岛后返回该地区。
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, told Press TV on Sunday that US targets including data centres and AI infrastructure would be "within range" if hostilities resumed, and described Washington's latest diplomatic response as insufficient. Washington increases naval presenceThe US Naval Institute confirmed on Tuesday that the aircraft carriers George Washington and George HW Bush are operating in the Arabian Sea. The HW Bush returned to the region after a port visit to Thailand's Phuket.
乔治·华盛顿号此前曾替换亚伯拉罕·林肯号。它们的同时存在具有重要意义，但仅凭此并不意味着即将发动行动，因为航母轮换有固定周期。美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）发布了中东上空KC-135为F-15E进行空中加油的图像、乔治·华盛顿号的飞行作业以及F-35B从两栖攻击舰“拳师”号起飞的画面。CENTCOM还表示，截至10月5日，美国军方已在伊朗海军封锁下改变了130艘商船的航线。
The George Washington had previously relieved the carrier Abraham Lincoln. Their simultaneous presence is significant, though it does not by itself signal an imminent operation given the regular cycle of carrier rotations.US Central Command (CENTCOM) has published images of an F-15E being refuelled mid-air by a KC-135 over the Middle East, flight operations from the George Washington, and an F-35B taking off from the amphibious assault ship Boxer.CENTCOM also said US forces had altered the routes of 130 commercial vessels under the naval blockade of Iran as of 5 October.
这一数据仅来自美军，尚未得到独立验证。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普本月早些时候在一次采访中表示，在美国11月3日中期选举之后加强对伊朗的空袭是可能的，尽管他拒绝透露任何军事计划的细节。当被问及其政府是否考虑重新使用GBU-43/B——即被称为“所有炸弹之母”的巨型空爆弹——时，特朗普并未否定这一想法，称其“并非核武器；它只是一枚非常大的炸弹。”
That figure comes solely from the US military and has not been independently verified.US President Donald Trump said in an interview earlier this month that intensifying air strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November was possible, although he declined to detail any military plans. Asked about reports that his administration was considering renewed use of the GBU-43/B — the Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the "mother of all bombs" — Trump did not dismiss the idea, saying it "is not nuclear; it is simply a very large bomb."
他还表示，未来涉及俄罗斯和中国的伊朗核裁军谈判也是可能的。专业航班追踪账号IntelSky周三报道称，美国空军油机在10月前14天的出击次数大约比9月的日均水平高出50%。该账号还报告称运输机活动出现类似增长。
He also said future nuclear disarmament talks with Iran involving Russia and China were a possibility. Specialist flight-tracking account IntelSky reported on Wednesday that US Air Force tanker sorties over the region in the first 14 days of October were running at roughly 50% above the daily rate recorded in September. The account reported a similar increase in transport aircraft activity.
IntelSky的数据未经独立核实，因为公开可用的追踪系统无法捕捉所有军事航空活动，且雷达覆盖的变化可能影响此类比较。10月1日，有报道称，美国军方正派遣约9000名士兵和水兵前往该地区，随同西奥多·罗斯福号航母打击群以及以马金岛号为核心的两栖待命群。一名美国官员在匿名条件下告诉美联社，此次部署可能使该地区的美国水兵和海军陆战队员总数超过20000人。
IntelSky's figures have not been independently verified as publicly available tracking systems do not capture all military aviation, and changes in radar coverage can affect such comparisons. On 1 October, reports claimed that the US military was sending around 9,000 troops and sailors to the region with the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the amphibious ready group centred on the Makin Island.A US official told AP on condition of anonymity that the deployment could bring the total number of American sailors and Marines in the region above 20,000.
据海军学会报道，截至周三，西奥多·罗斯福号尚未抵达阿拉伯海。以色列第12频道周四援引安消息来源报道称，西方国家已在伊朗境内发现新的、异常的军事行动，但当前事件不一定需要立即采取军事行动。该频道还报道称，以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡与美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥就最新事态发展进行了通话。
As of Wednesday, the Theodore Roosevelt had not yet reached the Arabian Sea, according to the Naval Institute. Israel's Channel 12 reported on Thursday citing security sources that Western countries had detected new and unusual military movements inside Iran, but that current events did not necessarily require immediate military action. The channel also reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken about the latest developments.