伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）表示，如果美国再次发动攻击，德黑兰可能会采取入侵邻国并打击美军军事基地的行动，作为其新“进攻性”战略的一部分。
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says renewed attacks by the United States could prompt Tehran to invade neighbouring countries and hit bases used in US military operations as part of its new “offensive” strategy.
这一警告是在霍尔木兹海峡（全球能源运输要道）的航运安全局势不断恶化，以及旨在结束这场持续近八个月的战争的外交努力仍无进展的背景下发出的。
The warning on Wednesday came amid escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, and uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the nearly eight-month war.
“我们的防御方针此前一直是防御性的；我们曾表示，如果其他国家攻击我们，我们会予以反击。但现在我们明确表示：如果其他国家攻击我们，我们不仅会反击，还会发起进攻，”IRGC发言人侯赛因·莫赫比（Hossein Mohebi）说道。
“Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said.
由于也门的胡塞武装对美国外交人员的袭击，华盛顿已下令部分外交人员撤离沙特阿拉伯；美国总统唐纳德·特朗普也暗示，关于这场冲突的最终决定可能很快就会作出。
Washington ordered some diplomatic personnel to leave Saudi Arabia amid attacks from Yemen’s Houthis while US President Donald Trump has signalled that a decision on the conflict could come soon.
据媒体报道，美国和以色列正在计划在未来几周内对伊朗发动攻击。
According to media reports, the US and Israel are planning potential attacks on Iran in the coming weeks.
随着谈判陷入僵局、双方互相威胁，该地区是否正朝着新一轮军事紧张局势发展？
As negotiations seem stalled and both sides exchange threats, could the region be heading towards another military escalation?
IRGC周三宣布将采取“进攻性和非对称性”的防御策略，并威胁要入侵那些对其发动攻击的国家。
The IRGC on Wednesday announced a shift towards an “offensive and asymmetrical” defence doctrine, threatening to invade countries that launch attacks against it.
莫赫比强调，自2025年6月伊朗与以色列之间的12天战争以来，伊朗的导弹库存增加了1.5倍（尽管他没有提供具体数字）。他还表示：“导弹的质量显著提升，其射程、破坏力以及打击目标的精确度也都得到了增强。”此外，莫赫比还称伊朗军队正处于“准备研发‘史上最强大的炸弹’的阶段”——这对敌人来说无疑是一个新的威胁。与此同时，霍尔木兹海峡的袭击事件仍在持续发生。
Mohebi said Tehran would no longer limit its military operations to retaliatory strikes. Mohebi stressed that Iran’s missile stockpile has increased 1.5 times since the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025. He did not provide specific figures. “The quality of the missiles has improved significantly, and their range, destructive power and accuracy in hitting targets have increased,” the spokesman said. Moreover, Mohebi said Iranian forces were in the “stage of preparing to unveil the ‘father of all bombs’. This is something new for the enemy.”Meanwhile, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued unabated.
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）的海军周四表示，他们指控参与非法石油运输的四艘船只已在海湾北部被击中并起火。该组织还称，另有三艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡以西触雷。
The IRGC’s navy said on Thursday that four vessels it accused of being involved in illegal oil transfers were struck and caught fire in the northern Gulf. Three other vessels hit mines west of the strait, it added.
在战争爆发前，全球五分之一的石油和天然气供应需通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。虽然目前通过该海峡的运输量仍低于战前的水平，但由于出口商找到了新的运输方式（包括使用管道），该地区的石油出口量已于上月恢复到战前的水平。
Before the war, one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. While shipments through the strait are still below those levels, oil shipments from the region returned to pre-war levels last month as exporters found alternative ways to ship out their oil and gas, including using pipelines.
然而，最近这一关键航道上接连发生的袭击事件，以及也门胡塞武装与得到沙特支持的、获得国际承认的也门政府之间的冲突（这些冲突导致胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯发动了攻击），再次推高了油价。由于担心地区能源供应会进一步受到干扰，布伦特原油价格在周四涨至每桶110美元以上。
However, a flurry of recent attacks in the key waterway and the fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and its Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government, which has resulted in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, have once again sent oil prices surging. Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel on Thursday amid fears of further disruptions to regional energy supplies.
分析人士指出，伊朗转向更具进攻性的军事战略，反映了德黑兰决心让未来美国和以色列的任何攻击都付出更高的代价。
Iran’s shift towards an offensive military doctrine reflects Tehran’s determination to make future US-Israeli attacks significantly more costly, according to analysts.
国际政策中心（Centre for International Policy）的高级研究员内加尔·莫塔扎维（Negar Mortazavi）告诉半岛电视台（Al Jazeera），德黑兰从2025年和2026年的战争中吸取了教训——因为之前的报复性策略未能有效阻止袭击的再次发生。她表示：“德黑兰现在希望建立一种新的平衡机制：任何针对伊朗的攻击都将让侵略者付出更高的代价。”
Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran was drawing lessons from the wars of 2025 and 2026 after its previous strategy of retaliation failed to prevent repeated attacks. “Tehran now wants to establish a new equation: Any future attack on Iran will come at a much higher cost for the aggressors,” she told Al Jazeera.
莫塔扎维解释说，由于无法与美国的常规军事力量相抗衡，伊朗越来越依赖非对称作战手段，如导弹、无人机，以及其对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权。她认为，德黑兰正在推行一项更为全面的战略，旨在对美国造成军事、经济和政治上的压力，甚至可能影响美国11月3日的中期选举结果。
Unable to match conventional US military capabilities, Iran is increasingly relying on asymmetric warfare, including missiles, drones and its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, Mortazavi explained. She said Tehran was pursuing a broader strategy aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs on Washington, including potentially influencing the November 3 US midterm elections.
“伊朗希望给华盛顿一个教训：攻击伊朗会付出高昂的代价，这种代价甚至可能影响到美国的选举结果，”莫塔扎维说道。她指的是那些预测特朗普领导的共和党会在选举中失利的美国民意调查。
“Iran wants to teach Washington a lesson: Attacking Iran comes with a high price, one that can even cost elections,” Mortazavi said, referring to US surveys that are predicting electoral losses for Trump’s Republican Party.
她补充说，伊朗官员正在密切关注美国大选的动向，因为他们认为战争带来的经济后果可能会损害共和党掌控国会的机会。
She added that Iranian officials were closely monitoring the elections, believing the economic fallout from the war could damage the Republican Party’s prospects of retaining control of Congress.
“我们的长期目标是建立一种威慑机制，让未来的美国政府在再次敢于攻击伊朗之前三思而行，”她表示。
“The long-term objective is to establish deterrence so that future American administrations think twice before daring to attack Iran again,” she said.
政治分析师拉米·库里指出，这一战略的目的还在于让攻击的后果波及美国、以色列以及那些支持美国军事行动的地区国家。
Political analyst Rami Khouri said the doctrine was also intended to ensure that the consequences of attacks extend to the US, Israel and regional countries supporting their military operations.
“这就是该战略的一部分——让各方所承受的痛苦和损失都是对称的、相互的，”库里在接受半岛电视台采访时说。
“That’s one part of the strategy, that the suffering and the damage have to be equal and reciprocal,” Khouri, nonresident senior fellow at the Arab Center, told Al Jazeera.
库里认为，德黑兰也在试图挑战西方长期以来对该地区的统治地位。“伊朗人实际上正在努力结束这个殖民时期的局面，”他说。
Khouri argued that Tehran was also seeking to challenge what it views as longstanding Western domination of the region. “The Iranians are actually working to try to end the colonial period,” he said.
他还指出，伊朗的策略可能会将冲突带来的经济影响扩展到中东以外的地区，影响能源供应、交通运输、保险费用以及各类必需品的运输。
He added that Iran’s strategy could extend the economic consequences of conflict far beyond the Middle East, affecting energy supplies, transportation, insurance costs and shipments of essential goods.
“这种痛苦不仅会波及中东、以色列和美国，还会影响到世界其他地区的人民，”库里强调。
“The pain is going to go way beyond just the Middle East and Israel and the US and will hurt people in other parts of the world,” Khouri said.
特朗普对于美国下一步的行动表达了相互矛盾的信号。周三，他表示美国已停止与德黑兰的谈判，并暗示相关行动即将发生：“我们很快就会看到某种结果，无论是好是坏，”他对记者们说道。
Trump has offered conflicting signals about Washington’s next steps. On Wednesday, he said the US was no longer negotiating with Tehran and suggested developments were imminent. “We are going to have something one way or the other that’ll happen fairly soon,” he told reporters.
他还表示，华盛顿可以立即结束战争，但希望取得持久的结果。特朗普在南卡罗来纳州的一场竞选集会上说：“战争很快就会结束。我们现在就可以离开，但我们希望确保它能持续很长时间。”特朗普此前曾承诺在11月3日选举前不攻击伊朗。
He also said Washington could end the war immediately but wanted a lasting outcome. “It’ll end very soon. We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time,” Trump said at a campaign rally in South Carolina. Trump previously pledged not to attack Iran before the November 3 elections.
美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥本周表示，达成和平协议极其困难，并坚持要求伊朗必须停止针对霍尔木兹海峡商业航运的行为。近几周来，伊朗的铀浓缩问题再次成为争议焦点。
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that reaching a peace agreement is extremely difficult and insisted that Iran must stop targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In recent weeks, Iran’s enrichment of uranium has re-emerged as a point of contention.
卢比奥一直主张，华盛顿将拒绝任何允许伊朗发展核武器的协议，因为发展核武器需要高浓缩铀。他在周三表示：“美国不会支持任何为伊朗提供获取核武器途径的协议。”
Rubio has maintained that Washington will reject any agreement allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons, which require highly enriched uranium. “The United States will not support any deal that creates a pathway for Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon,” he said on Wednesday.
德黑兰坚持认为，《不扩散核武器条约》保障了其进行铀浓缩的权利。
Tehran insisted its right to enrichment is guaranteed under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
伊朗提出了一项为期七天的计划，以恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运，换取华盛顿结束对伊朗港口的封锁、放松制裁并解冻伊朗资产。
Iran has offered a seven-day plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington ending its blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.
与此同时，美国国务院周三下令非紧急人员及其家属离开沙特阿拉伯，此前胡塞武装发动了近期袭击。
Meanwhile, the US Department of State on Wednesday ordered nonemergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia after recent Houthi attacks.
美国驻利雅得大使馆警告称可能发生更多袭击，而美国官员向路透社表示，其他海湾使团的人员家属也可能被撤离。
The US embassy in Riyadh has warned of further attacks while American officials told the Reuters news agency that family members could be withdrawn from other Gulf missions.
国务院发言人汤米·皮戈特表示，尚未下令海湾各使团人员撤离，称目前的命令仅针对“沙特阿拉伯的员工及其家属”。
State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott said departure orders for mission personnel across the Gulf have not been ordered, saying the current orders were for “employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only”.
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡周日重申了他推翻伊朗政府的承诺，称这对于阻止伊朗重建其核计划和“抵抗轴心”至关重要，这进一步加剧了局势升级的前景。
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Sunday his pledge to topple Iran’s government, saying it was key to preventing it from rebuilding its nuclear programme and the “axis of resistance”, further raising prospects of an escalation.
内塔尼亚胡发表上述言论之际，这位以色列任职时间最长的总理正深陷一场艰难的权力保卫战，力争在周二的选举中继续执政。
Netanyahu made the comments as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is locked in a tough battle to remain in power in Tuesday’s elections.
分析人士警告称，美国与以色列对伊朗再次发动袭击的可能性越来越大，双方都在为新一轮对抗做准备，尽管外交途径的可能性依然存在。“另一轮战争似乎正在逼近，”莫尔塔扎维说。
Analysts warned that renewed US-Israeli attacks on Iran are increasingly possible with both sides preparing for another confrontation despite the continued possibility of diplomacy. “Another round of war seems to be approaching,” Mortazavi said.
“双方似乎都在为重新对抗做准备，而霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势的升级增加了冲突扩大的风险，”她说。
“Both sides appear to be preparing for renewed confrontation while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of a wider conflict,” she said.
莫尔塔扎维补充说，未来两周美国和以色列的选举可能会影响军事行动的时机，但她警告称，目前的趋势似乎更倾向于升级而非谈判。
Mortazavi added that the elections in the next two weeks in the US and Israel could influence the timing of military action but warned that the current trajectory appeared to favour escalation over negotiations.
伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛·雷扎伊周三表示：“所有人都必须知道，任何针对伊朗的行动都要付出代价。”“如果外交能够促成这种共识，我们更倾向于外交，但如果战争继续，伊朗拥有维持其回应所需的手段，”雷扎伊据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社报道如是说。
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, on Wednesday said, “Everyone must know that any action against Iran comes at a cost.”“If diplomacy can create this understanding, we prefer diplomacy, but if the war continues, Iran has the necessary means to sustain its response,” Rezaei said, according to the IRNA news agency.
库利呼应了莫尔塔扎维的看法，警告称另一场对抗可能正在逼近，尽管他表示美国的威胁可能仍是谈判策略的一部分。
Echoing Mortazavi, Khouri warned that another confrontation could be approaching although he said US threats might still be part of a negotiating strategy.
“我认为迫在眉睫的冲突是有可能的，但我不知道用‘战争’这个词是否恰当，”库利对半岛电视台说。
“I think imminent conflict is on the cards, but I don’t know if war is the right word to use,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.
他表示，新一轮打击可能针对伊朗的关键基础设施，包括电网、交通系统、桥梁和基本服务。
He said renewed strikes could target Iran’s critical infrastructure, including electricity networks, transportation systems, bridges and essential services.
“我们可能会看到对一些目标发动猛烈攻击，试图让伊朗的生活变得非常艰难，”他说。
“We’re probably going to get some severe attacks on a few targets that will try to make life in Iran very difficult,” he said.
然而，库利提醒说，伊朗能否在承受另一次大规模军事攻势的同时对其对手造成相当的损害，目前仍不确定。
However, Khouri cautioned that Iran’s ability to withstand another major military offensive while inflicting comparable damage on its adversaries remained uncertain.
“伊朗是否有能力抵御重大新的袭击尚不清楚，”他说，同时强调德黑兰不太可能屈服于军事压力。
“It’s not clear if Iran has the ability to withstand major new assaults against it,” he said, while stressing that Tehran was unlikely to surrender to military pressure.