伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）表示，美国的新一轮袭击可能促使德黑兰入侵邻国，并打击用于美军行动的基地，作为其新“进攻”战略的一部分。
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says renewed attacks by the United States could prompt Tehran to invade neighbouring countries and hit bases used in US military operations as part of its new “offensive” strategy.
这一警告于周三发出，当时霍尔木兹海峡的船舶袭击事件正在升级，该海峡是全球能源咽喉要道，而旨在结束长达近八个月战争的外交努力也充满不确定性。
The warning on Wednesday came amid escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, and uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the nearly eight-month war.
“我们的防御学说此前是防御性的；我们过去常说，如果一个国家攻击我们，我们将进行回应。现在我们说，如果一个国家攻击我们，我们将既进行回应，又发动进攻，”IRGC发言人侯赛因·莫赫比说。
“Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said.
在也门胡塞武装发动袭击的背景下，华盛顿下令部分外交人员离开沙特阿拉伯，而美国总统唐纳德·特朗普则暗示，关于这场冲突的决定可能很快就会做出。据媒体报道，美国和以色列正在策划未来几周对伊朗的潜在袭击。
Washington ordered some diplomatic personnel to leave Saudi Arabia amid attacks from Yemen’s Houthis while US President Donald Trump has signalled that a decision on the conflict could come soon. According to media reports, the US and Israel are planning potential attacks on Iran in the coming weeks.
随着谈判似乎陷入僵局，双方互相交换威胁，该地区是否将走向另一次军事升级？伊朗的新学说是什么？
As negotiations seem stalled and both sides exchange threats, could the region be heading towards another military escalation? What is Iran’s new doctrine?
IRGC周三宣布，将转向“进攻和非对称”防御学说，威胁要入侵对其发动攻击的国家。莫赫比表示，德黑兰将不再将其军事行动局限于报复性打击。
The IRGC on Wednesday announced a shift towards an “offensive and asymmetrical” defence doctrine, threatening to invade countries that launch attacks against it. Mohebi said Tehran would no longer limit its military operations to retaliatory strikes.
莫赫比强调，自2025年6月伊朗与以色列之间持续12天的战争以来，伊朗的导弹储备已增加了1.5倍。他没有提供具体数字。
Mohebi stressed that Iran’s missile stockpile has increased 1.5 times since the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025. He did not provide specific figures.
“导弹的质量已显著提高，其射程、破坏力和打击目标的精度都有所增加，”发言人说。
“The quality of the missiles has improved significantly, and their range, destructive power and accuracy in hitting targets have increased,” the spokesman said.
此外，莫赫比表示，伊朗军队正处于“准备揭示‘所有炸弹之父’的阶段。这对敌人来说是新事物。”与此同时，霍尔木兹海峡的袭击仍在继续，没有减弱。
Moreover, Mohebi said Iranian forces were in the “stage of preparing to unveil the ‘father of all bombs’. This is something new for the enemy.”Meanwhile, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued unabated.
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）海军周四表示，四艘被指涉嫌非法转运石油的船只在波斯湾北部遭到袭击并起火。该部队补充称，另有三艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡以西触雷。
The IRGC’s navy said on Thursday that four vessels it accused of being involved in illegal oil transfers were struck and caught fire in the northern Gulf. Three other vessels hit mines west of the strait, it added.
战前，全球五分之一的石油和天然气供应经由霍尔木兹海峡运输。虽然通过该海峡的运输量仍低于战前水平，但该地区的石油出货量上个月已恢复至战前水平，因为出口商找到了替代方式运出石油和天然气，包括使用管道。
Before the war, one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. While shipments through the strait are still below those levels, oil shipments from the region returned to pre-war levels last month as exporters found alternative ways to ship out their oil and gas, including using pipelines.
然而，这一关键水道近期接连发生袭击事件，加上也门胡塞武装与其沙特支持的、国际公认政府之间的战斗导致胡塞武装袭击沙特阿拉伯，再次推高油价。周四布伦特原油价格升至每桶110美元以上，市场担心地区能源供应进一步中断。为何转向？
However, a flurry of recent attacks in the key waterway and the fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and its Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government, which has resulted in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, have once again sent oil prices surging. Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel on Thursday amid fears of further disruptions to regional energy supplies. Why the shift?
据分析人士称，伊朗转向进攻性军事学说，反映了德黑兰决心让未来的美以攻击付出更大代价。
Iran’s shift towards an offensive military doctrine reflects Tehran’s determination to make future US-Israeli attacks significantly more costly, according to analysts.
国际政策中心高级研究员内加尔·莫塔扎维对半岛电视台表示，在伊朗此前的报复战略未能阻止重复袭击后，德黑兰正在汲取2025年和2026年战争的教训。
Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran was drawing lessons from the wars of 2025 and 2026 after its previous strategy of retaliation failed to prevent repeated attacks.
她对半岛电视台说：“德黑兰现在想要建立一种新的算式：任何未来对伊朗的攻击，都将让侵略者付出高得多的代价。”
“Tehran now wants to establish a new equation: Any future attack on Iran will come at a much higher cost for the aggressors,” she told Al Jazeera.
莫塔扎维解释说，由于无法在常规军事能力上与美国抗衡，伊朗越来越多地依赖非对称战争，包括导弹、无人机及其对霍尔木兹海峡的影响力。
Unable to match conventional US military capabilities, Iran is increasingly relying on asymmetric warfare, including missiles, drones and its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, Mortazavi explained.
她说，德黑兰正在推行一项更广泛的战略，旨在向华盛顿施加军事、经济和政治成本，包括可能影响11月3日的美国中期选举。
She said Tehran was pursuing a broader strategy aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs on Washington, including potentially influencing the November 3 US midterm elections.
莫塔扎维说：“伊朗想给华盛顿上一课：攻击伊朗要付出高昂代价，甚至可能付出选举的代价。”她指的是美国民调预测特朗普的共和党将在选举中失利。
“Iran wants to teach Washington a lesson: Attacking Iran comes with a high price, one that can even cost elections,” Mortazavi said, referring to US surveys that are predicting electoral losses for Trump’s Republican Party.
她补充说，伊朗官员正在密切关注选举，认为战争带来的经济后果可能损害共和党保持对国会控制权的前景。
She added that Iranian officials were closely monitoring the elections, believing the economic fallout from the war could damage the Republican Party’s prospects of retaining control of Congress.
她说：“长期目标是建立威慑，让未来的美国政府在胆敢再次攻击伊朗之前三思而后行。”
“The long-term objective is to establish deterrence so that future American administrations think twice before daring to attack Iran again,” she said.
政治分析人士拉米·库里说，这一学说也旨在确保袭击的后果波及美国、以色列以及支持其军事行动的地区国家。
Political analyst Rami Khouri said the doctrine was also intended to ensure that the consequences of attacks extend to the US, Israel and regional countries supporting their military operations.
库里是阿拉伯中心的非常驻高级研究员，他告诉半岛电视台：“这是战略的一部分，即痛苦和损害必须是平等且相互的。”
“That’s one part of the strategy, that the suffering and the damage have to be equal and reciprocal,” Khouri, nonresident senior fellow at the Arab Center, told Al Jazeera.
库里认为，德黑兰还在寻求挑战其所视为长期存在的西方对该地区的统治。他说：“伊朗人实际上正在努力试图终结殖民时期。”
Khouri argued that Tehran was also seeking to challenge what it views as longstanding Western domination of the region. “The Iranians are actually working to try to end the colonial period,” he said.
他补充说，伊朗的战略可能将冲突的经济后果延伸至中东以外，影响能源供应、运输、保险成本和基本商品的运输。
He added that Iran’s strategy could extend the economic consequences of conflict far beyond the Middle East, affecting energy supplies, transportation, insurance costs and shipments of essential goods.
库里说：“痛苦将远远超出中东、以色列和美国，将伤害世界其他地区的人们。”美国对恢复战争说了什么？特朗普对华盛顿的下一步行动发出了相互矛盾的信号。
“The pain is going to go way beyond just the Middle East and Israel and the US and will hurt people in other parts of the world,” Khouri said. What has the US said about resuming the war? Trump has offered conflicting signals about Washington’s next steps.
周三，他说美国不再与德黑兰谈判，并暗示事态发展迫在眉睫。“我们将以这样或那样的方式迎来一些事情，将会相当快地发生，”他对记者说。
On Wednesday, he said the US was no longer negotiating with Tehran and suggested developments were imminent. “We are going to have something one way or the other that’ll happen fairly soon,” he told reporters.
他还说，华盛顿可以立即结束战争，但希望达成持久的结果。“这将很快结束。我们现在可以离开，但我们希望确保它能持续很长时间，”特朗普在南卡罗来纳州的一次竞选集会上说。特朗普此前承诺，在11月3日大选前不攻击伊朗。
He also said Washington could end the war immediately but wanted a lasting outcome. “It’ll end very soon. We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time,” Trump said at a campaign rally in South Carolina. Trump previously pledged not to attack Iran before the November 3 elections.
美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥本周表示，达成和平协议极其困难，并坚称伊朗必须停止在霍尔木兹海峡攻击商业船只。
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that reaching a peace agreement is extremely difficult and insisted that Iran must stop targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
在过去几周里，伊朗的铀浓缩再次成为争议点。鲁比奥一直坚持，华盛顿将拒绝任何允许伊朗发展核武器的协议，而核武器需要高浓缩铀。“美国不会支持任何为伊朗拥有核武器铺平道路的协议，”他周三说。德黑兰坚称，其铀浓缩权受《不扩散核武器条约》保障。
In recent weeks, Iran’s enrichment of uranium has re-emerged as a point of contention Rubio has maintained that Washington will reject any agreement allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons, which require highly enriched uranium. “The United States will not support any deal that creates a pathway for Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon,” he said on Wednesday. Tehran insisted its right to enrichment is guaranteed under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
伊朗提出了一项为期七天的计划，以恢复通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运，作为交换，要求华盛顿结束对伊朗港口的封锁、放宽制裁并解冻伊朗资产。
Iran has offered a seven-day plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington ending its blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.
与此同时，美国国务院周三下令非紧急人员及其家属离开沙特阿拉伯，此前胡塞武装发动了最近的袭击。
Meanwhile, the US Department of State on Wednesday ordered nonemergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia after recent Houthi attacks.
美国驻利雅得大使馆发出了进一步袭击的警告，而美国官员告诉路透社，家属可能会从其他海湾使馆撤离。
The US embassy in Riyadh has warned of further attacks while American officials told the Reuters news agency that family members could be withdrawn from other Gulf missions.
国务院发言人汤米·皮戈特表示，海湾地区使馆人员尚未接到撤离令，目前的命令仅针对“沙特阿拉伯的员工及其家属”。
State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott said departure orders for mission personnel across the Gulf have not been ordered, saying the current orders were for “employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only”.
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡周日重申了推翻伊朗政府的承诺，称这是防止伊朗重建其核计划和“抵抗之轴”的关键，进一步加剧了局势升级的预期。
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Sunday his pledge to topple Iran’s government, saying it was key to preventing it from rebuilding its nuclear programme and the “axis of resistance”, further raising prospects of an escalation.
内塔尼亚胡发表上述言论之际，以色列任期最长的总理正在为周二的选举留任而进行艰苦的争夺。战争迫在眉睫吗？
Netanyahu made the comments as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is locked in a tough battle to remain in power in Tuesday’s elections. Is war imminent?
分析人士警告称，美以两国对伊朗发动新一轮攻击的可能性正在增加，尽管外交的可能性依然存在，但双方都在为另一次对抗做准备。“另一轮战争似乎正在逼近，”莫塔扎维说。
Analysts warned that renewed US-Israeli attacks on Iran are increasingly possible with both sides preparing for another confrontation despite the continued possibility of diplomacy. “Another round of war seems to be approaching,” Mortazavi said.
“双方似乎都在为新的对抗做准备，而霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势的升级增加了更广泛冲突的风险，”她说。
“Both sides appear to be preparing for renewed confrontation while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of a wider conflict,” she said.
莫塔扎维补充称，未来两周美国和以色列的选举可能会影响军事行动的时机，但她警告说，当前的趋势似乎更倾向于升级而非谈判。
Mortazavi added that the elections in the next two weeks in the US and Israel could influence the timing of military action but warned that the current trajectory appeared to favour escalation over negotiations.
伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书长穆赫森·雷扎伊周三表示，“所有人都必须知道，任何针对伊朗的行动都要付出代价。”“如果外交能够创造这种理解，我们更倾向于外交，但如果战争继续，伊朗拥有维持其回应所需的手段，”雷扎伊说，据伊尔纳通讯社报道。
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, on Wednesday said, “Everyone must know that any action against Iran comes at a cost.”“If diplomacy can create this understanding, we prefer diplomacy, but if the war continues, Iran has the necessary means to sustain its response,” Rezaei said, according to the IRNA news agency.
呼应莫塔扎维的观点，库里警告说，另一次对抗可能即将来临，尽管他说美国的威胁可能仍然是谈判策略的一部分。
Echoing Mortazavi, Khouri warned that another confrontation could be approaching although he said US threats might still be part of a negotiating strategy.
“我认为迫在眉睫的冲突是可能的，但我不知道战争是否是合适的用词，”库里告诉半岛电视台。
“I think imminent conflict is on the cards, but I don’t know if war is the right word to use,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.
他说，新的打击可能会瞄准伊朗的关键基础设施，包括电力网络、交通系统、桥梁和基本服务。
He said renewed strikes could target Iran’s critical infrastructure, including electricity networks, transportation systems, bridges and essential services.
“我们可能会遭遇针对少数目标的严重攻击，这些攻击将试图让伊朗的生活变得非常困难，”他说。
“We’re probably going to get some severe attacks on a few targets that will try to make life in Iran very difficult,” he said.
然而，库里警告说，伊朗在承受另一次重大军事进攻的同时，对其对手造成可比损害的能力仍然不确定。
However, Khouri cautioned that Iran’s ability to withstand another major military offensive while inflicting comparable damage on its adversaries remained uncertain.
“伊朗是否有能力抵御重大新的袭击尚不清楚，”他说，同时强调德黑兰不太可能屈服于军事压力。
“It’s not clear if Iran has the ability to withstand major new assaults against it,” he said, while stressing that Tehran was unlikely to surrender to military pressure.