美国选民心中的经济悲观情绪正在加深，但唐纳德·特朗普却在推销一套截然不同的说辞。
Economic pessimism is deepening in the minds of American voters, but Donald Trump is offering a different sales pitch.
在中期选举前几天，这场选举将成为对美国总统政策的公投，他信心满满地宣称：“就经济而言，我们拥有我国历史上最伟大的时刻。” 数据讲述了一个更复杂的故事。民调也是如此，民调显示选民打算惩罚共和党，因为其食言背信，以及大多数美国人归咎于伊朗战争的生活成本危机。
Days before the midterm elections, which will serve as a referendum on the US president’s policies, he buoyantly declared: “We have the single greatest moment in the history of our country in terms of the economy.”The numbers tell a more complex story. So do the polls, which show voters intend to punish Republicans for broken promises and a cost of living crisis that the majority of Americans blame on the Iran war.
总体而言，美国经济表现良好。其增速超越所有其他七国集团（G7）主要经济体，国内生产总值（GDP）强劲，失业率低企，工业产出触及后疫情时代高点。然而，美国选民最关心的问题——通胀——却顽固地维持在高位。
Broadly speaking, the American economy is doing well. Its growth is outpacing all other G7 leading economies, GDP is strong, unemployment is low and industrial output has hit a post-pandemic high. Yet, the issue that American voters care most about – inflation – sits stubbornly high.
《每日电讯报》的分析表明，特朗普先生与伊朗的战争，让美国普通家庭额外承担了 3073 美元的成本，因为燃料、食品和利率正在冲击财政状况。
A Telegraph analysis suggests that Mr Trump’s war with Iran is costing the average American household an additional $3,073, as fuel, food and interest rates batter finances.
当特朗普先生于 2025 年 1 月重返白宫时，他继承了一个正在复苏的经济，并承诺降低物价。
When Mr Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, he inherited an economy on the mend and promised lower prices.
在乔·拜登执政下，美国通胀于 2022 年 6 月触及 9.1% 的峰值——为 40 年来最高，这是由疫情相关的供应链中断和乌克兰战争导致的。
Under Joe Biden, US inflation had peaked at 9.1 per cent in June 2022 – the highest in 40 years, as a result of pandemic-related disruptions and the war in Ukraine.
但当拜登先生于 2025 年卸任时，通胀已基本得到稳定（降至 3% 以下）。全球原油市场在经历 2022 年的冲击后也已企稳。
But when Mr Biden left office in 2025, inflation had broadly been stabilised (sitting at less than 3 per cent). Global crude oil markets had also steadied after the shocks of 2022.
在特朗普先生第二任期的前 13 个月里，增长上扬，乐观情绪成为主基调。2025 年全年通胀维持在 3% 或以下。到今年 2 月，通胀已降至 2.4%。
In the first 13 months of Mr Trump’s second term, growth was up and optimism was the prevailing outlook. Inflation sat at or below 3 per cent throughout 2025. By February this year, it had sunk to 2.4 per cent.
这伴随着实际工资的月度环比增长。到 2 月底，抵押贷款利率缓降至约 6%，汽油价格降至 2022 年以来最低水平。
This was matched by month-on-month increases in real wages. Mortgage rates eased to roughly 6 per cent by late February and gas costs were at their lowest since 2022.
然而，就在关税影响开始消退之际，特朗普政府于2月28日对伊朗发动了“史诗之怒”行动。该军事行动旨在通过一次迅速、果断的打击，摧毁伊朗的核计划和军事能力，从而推翻该政权。随着首批以色列和美国炸弹投下，市场下跌，油价飙升。
Just as the effects of the tariffs were beginning to fade, however, the Trump administration unleashed Operation Epic Fury on Iran on Feb 28. The military campaign aimed to cripple Iran’s nuclear programme and military capabilities in a swift, decisive strike that would bring down the regime. As the first Israeli and American bombs dropped, markets fell, and oil prices jumped.
货轮面临霍尔木兹海峡的险恶航程 在随后的日子里，伊朗祭出了其最强有力的武器——对霍尔木兹海峡的扼守，导致海湾石油和天然气出口骤降。原油价格迅速从每桶65美元涨至100美元。结果引发全球经济动荡和能源短缺，将美国拖入生活成本危机。民调一致显示，美国民众对长期战争极缺乏意愿。
Cargo vessels face a precarious voyage through the Strait of Hormuz In the days that followed, Iran deployed its most potent weapon – a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in plummeting exports of oil and gas out of the Gulf. Crude oil quickly increased from $65 to $100 per barrel. The result was global economic upheaval and an energy shortage that dragged the US into a cost-of-living crisis. Polling consistently shows that Americans have very little appetite for a long war.
随着伊朗冲突拖延，通胀开始回升，从3月的3.3%升至5月的峰值4.2%。到9月，通胀回落至3.4%，此时美联储将利率上调至4%。
As the conflict in Iran dragged on, so inflation began creeping back up, from 3.3 per cent in March to its peak at 4.2 per cent in May. By September, it had lowered to 3.4 per cent, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 4 per cent.
冲突进入近八个月，汽油价格飙升至每加仑4.35美元，柴油价格达到历史最高位的每加仑6.20美元，挤压消费者并损害共和党核心腹地的农业供应链。
Nearly eight months into the conflict, petrol has soared to $4.35 a gallon, and diesel is at historic highs of $6.20 a gallon, squeezing consumers and hurting agricultural supply chains in Republican heartlands.
据《每日电讯报》分析的数据，美国平均家庭现在每月燃油支出比2月增加77美元。四口之家现在每月食品支出增加23.84美元（每年286美元）。
According to data analysed by The Telegraph, an average American household is now paying $77 more a month for fuel than in February. A family of four is now paying $23.84 more a month for food ($286 a year).
在特朗普任期内，消费者价格上涨了5.4%，而拜登最后20个月为3.8%。
Across Mr Trump’s term, consumer prices have risen by 5.4 per cent, compared with 3.8 per cent in Mr Biden’s final 20 months.
食品通胀为4.4%，高于前一届政府的3.5%，其中咖啡价格上涨22%，绞肉上涨25%，谷物和烘焙食品上涨3.7%。
Food inflation stands at 4.4 per cent, up from 3.5 per cent under the previous administration, with coffee prices rising by 22 per cent, ground beef by 25 per cent and cereals and baked goods by 3.7 per cent.
10月，支付20%首付的美国平均新购房者，在30年期固定利率抵押贷款上每年将比战前多付1866美元。
In October, the average new US homeowner with a 20 per cent deposit will pay $1,866 more a year on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage than before the war.
民意调查反映出选民的愤怒 据锡耶纳大学/《纽约时报》周二发布的一项民调，仅有36%打算投票的成年人表示赞同特朗普的表现，而59%表示不赞同。
Opinion polls reflect voters’ anger Just 36 per cent of adults intending to vote said that they approved of Mr Trump’s performance, while 59 per cent disapproved, according to a Siena University/New York Times poll released on Tuesday.
据数据和民调显示，作为特朗普“让美国再次伟大”基本盘关键支柱的美国农村民众，正承受着最大冲击。综合来看，跨党派选民感到愤怒和担忧的原因显而易见。
Rural Americans, a key pillar of Mr Trump’s Maga base, are bearing the brunt, according to data and polling. Put this all together, and it’s clear why voters across party lines are angry and worried.
这种阴霾体现在密歇根大学10月初步消费者信心指数中——该指数是衡量人们如何看待自身财务状况和经济的指标。该指数降至46.3，为该调查历史最低点。
That gloom was evident in the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October – an indicator of how people view their own financial situation and the economy. It fell to 46.3 per cent, the lowest in the survey’s history.
这一读数并不令人意外。根据10月哈里斯-《卫报》民调，跨党派的大多数美国人（61%）认为美国处于衰退中。然而，官方指标显示并非如此。
The reading should be unsurprising. The majority of Americans across party lines believe the US is in recession (61 per cent), according to an October Harris-Guardian poll. However, official metrics show it is not.
查塔姆研究所美国与北美项目副研究员希瑟·赫尔伯特表示：“这与拜登政府时期发生的情况平行，当时数据变好了，但公众情绪却不匹配。”
“This parallels what happened during the Biden administration when numbers became good, but public sentiment did not match,” said Heather Hurlburt, associate fellow with the US and North America Programme at Chatham House.
她补充道：“现在的数据更加好坏参半。我们并未陷入衰退，但消费者无法避免购买的商品价格顽固居高不下，导致人们感觉自己陷入了个人衰退。”
“The numbers are now more mixed. We’re not in a recession but stubborn high prices on things consumers cannot avoid buying lead people to feel they are in a personal recession,” she added.
赫尔伯特援引伊朗战争对能源和食品价格的影响补充道：“当美国消费者已经感到脆弱时，这仿佛是一记双重打击。”在摇摆州，民主党人一直在不懈地强化这一信息。
Citing the impact of the Iran war on both energy and food prices, Ms Hurlburt added: “This felt like a double attack on American consumers when they were already feeling vulnerable.”In swing states, Democrats have been relentlessly driving home that message.
阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德站在医疗改革、降低生活成本和限制企业影响政治的平台上。“我们的学校摇摇欲坠，我们的工厂关门歇业，我们的汽油价格飞涨。但当他们想要战争时：数十亿美元的空头支票，”密歇根州备受关注的参议院竞选中民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在其最新竞选广告中说。
Abdul El-Sayed is standing on a platform of healthcare reform, reducing living costs and limiting corporate influence in politics“Our schools crumble, our factories shutter, our gas prices skyrocket. But when they want war: billion-dollar blank checks,” says Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate in Michigan’s closely watched Senate race, in his latest campaign advert.
现实情况 然而，从宏观经济层面来看，数据表明美国经济强劲，或者至少是稳定的。
The reality However, at a macroeconomic level, data suggest the American economy is strong, or at least stable.
经济在1月至3月期间以2.5%的速度增长，4月至6月期间以2.2%的速度增长。存在弱点，但专家普遍认为情况并不像选民认为的那么糟糕。
The economy grew at a rate of 2.5 per cent between January and March and 2.2 per cent between April and June. There are weaknesses, but experts largely agree it is not as bad as voters believe.
美国海军的很大一部分力量正在协助恢复霍尔木兹海峡的石油流动，但开采原油的成本却在飙升。美国炼油厂正在超负荷运转，但特朗普仍无法保护美国选民免受全球市场定价的影响。
A significant chunk of the US navy is helping to resume oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but costs are skyrocketing to get crude out. American oil refineries are working in overdrive, but Mr Trump still cannot shield American voters from prices set by the global market.
然而，根据Rystad Energy首席经济学家克劳迪奥·加利姆伯蒂的说法，与欧洲相比，能源危机的影响“到目前为止在美国非常有限”。
Yet, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, the impact of the energy crisis “has so far been very contained” in the US, compared to Europe.
美国是世界上最大的石油和天然气生产国，也是最大的出口国之一。“这与2008年截然不同，当时油价非常高，而美国是世界上最大的石油进口国，”他说。“那时，高油价几乎自动意味着经济衰退。”总部位于华盛顿的布鲁金斯学会外交政策项目美国政策分析师、高级研究员迈克尔·奥汉隆也对悲观论提出了警示。
America is the largest producer of oil and gas in the world and one of the largest exporters. “This is very different from, say, 2008 when oil prices were very high, and the US was the world’s largest oil importer,” he said. “Back then, high oil prices implied almost automatically a recession.”Michael O’Hanlon, American policy analyst and senior fellow of the foreign policy programme at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, also cautioned against pessimism.
他指出，战争对增长不利，但“并非灾难性的”，他指着低失业率说道。“考虑到漫长的战争，油价没有人们曾经担心的那么高，”他补充道。
He noted the war had not been good for growth, but “it has not been catastrophic,” he said, pointing to the low unemployment rate. “Oil prices aren’t as high as once feared given the long war,” he added.
“主要问题是消费者通胀，”他说，预测如果战争很快结束，石油和天然气供应恢复正常，通胀可能会在“几个月内得到缓解”。
“The main problem is consumer inflation,” he said, predicting that it could be “mitigated within months” if the war ends soon and oil and gas supplies return to normal.
这是一个很大的“如果”，尤其是考虑到有报道称特朗普正在制定计划，在中期选举后对伊朗发动新一轮打击。因此，经济前景看起来充满不确定性。美国选民可能不愿冒这个险。
That’s a big “if”, particularly given reports Mr Trump is drawing up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the midterms. The road ahead for the economy, therefore, looks uncertain. American voters may have no appetite for a gamble.