特朗普总统一直在中期国会选举前吹嘘美国经济的表现，声称他提高了收入、降低了通胀并创造了就业。
President Donald Trump has been boasting about the performance of the US economy ahead of the midterm congressional elections, claiming he has boosted incomes, reduced inflation and created jobs.
特朗普多次表示：“我们是世界上最热的国家。”虽然在特朗普于2025年推出全面的“解放日”关税政策后，美国整体经济表现优于许多人的预期，但有证据表明，这些进口税以及美以与伊朗战争的影响推高了通胀，其有害影响被大多数美国家庭感受到。
Trump has repeatedly said: "We have the hottest country anywhere in the world." While the overall US economy is faring better than many expected after Trump launched his sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs in 2025, there's evidence those import taxes and the impact of the US-Israel war with Iran have pushed up inflation, with the harmful effects felt by most American households.
美国经济也正受益于人工智能投资热潮，如果这笔支出枯竭，经济可能会放缓。
The US economy is also being helped by an AI investment boom, and could falter if that spending were to dry up.
那么，这一切对普通美国人来说感觉如何？BBC核实已审视证据是否支持总统的说法。
So how does all this feel for the average American? BBC Verify has looked at whether the evidence supports the president's claims.
- 美国经济增长按美国近期历史标准，美国整体经济正以体面的速度增长。
- US economy growing The overall US economy is growing at a respectable clip by the country's recent historic standards.
最新数据显示，美国GDP（对外）——即经济学家衡量美国经济规模的方式——目前以年化2.2%的速度扩张。
The latest data shows US GDP, external - which is how economists measure the size of the US economy - currently expanding at an annualised rate of 2.2%.
并且自2024年底（就在特朗普就任第二任期之前）以来，美国经济整体增长了约3.2%。
And it has increased by around 3.2% overall since the end of 2024, just before Trump took office for his second term.
这一增幅在此期间高于七国集团（G7）其他任何成员国的增长率。
That is more growth than any other member of the G7 group of leading economies over that period.
美国的增长率快于国际货币基金组织（IMF）（对外）在特朗普于2025年4月2日宣布对进入美国的商品实施一系列新关税之后立即发布的预测。
The US growth rate has been faster than was forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), external in the immediate wake of Trump's announcement of a swathe of new tariffs on goods coming into the US on 2 April 2025.
当时，IMF下调了其预测，理由是特朗普的进口关税对投资和消费支出产生了负面影响。
It downgraded its forecasts at the time, citing the negative impact of Trump's import duties on investment and consumer spending.
需要注意的是，特朗普在随后的几个月里 considerably 减轻了关税，降低了最初被预期对经济造成的影响。
Though it is important to note that Trump eased the tariffs considerably in the months that followed, reducing the impact that had initially been expected on the economy.
美国经济近年来也受到美国科技公司在人工智能领域的大规模投资的大力支持，其中包括在全国范围内建设数据中心。
The US economy has also been heavily supported in recent years by American technology companies making massive investments in AI, including by constructing data centres around the country.
2026年8月，美国企业在建设数据中心上的支出（不包括放入其中的IT硬件）达到50亿美元，几乎是特朗普重返白宫时月度支出水平的两倍。
Spending on building data centres, external (excluding the IT hardware to go in them) by US businesses in August 2026 was $5bn, almost double the monthly rate when Trump returned to office.
- 通胀上升许多美国选民希望在2024年总统大选中惩罚乔·拜登，认为他应对疫情后价格大幅上涨所造成的痛苦负责。目前美国的通胀率为3.7%。
- Inflation picked up Many American voters wanted to punish Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election, holding him responsible for the pain caused by a significant spike in prices in the wake of the pandemic. The current rate of US inflation, external is 3.7%.
尽管这一数字远低于拜登任内2022年达到的9%的近期峰值，但高于特朗普在2025年1月就任时继承的3%的通胀率。
That's still well down on the recent peak rate of 9% under Biden in 2022, but higher than the 3% rate that Donald Trump inherited in January 2025.
经济学家估计，如果特朗普重返白宫后未实施新的关税，美国的通胀率本应更低。
Economists estimate, external US inflation would have been lower without the new tariffs imposed by Trump since he returned to office.
此外，伊朗战争对全球能源价格的影响——由于中东石油和燃料供应的重大中断——也推高了美国国内通胀。
While the impact of the Iran war on global energy prices, with the significant disruption to oil and fuel supplies from the Middle East, has also helped push up US domestic inflation.
美国一加仑柴油的价格——这种燃料不仅被司机使用，还广泛用于农业和工业——在9月达到历史最高水平6.52美元。
The price of a gallon of diesel in the US, external - a fuel used not only by drivers but also widely in agriculture and industry - hit a record high of $6.52 in September.
自特朗普重返白宫以来，一些杂货必需品如牛肉和咖啡的价格已上涨，尽管鸡蛋价格有所下降。
The price of some grocery staples , externallike beef and coffee have risen since Trump returned to office, though the price of eggs has fallen.
此外，一些美国零售商警告称，伊朗战争导致的能源价格上涨将使食品生产成本增加，并导致零售终端价格上涨。
And some US retailers have warned, external that rising energy prices caused by the Iran war will make producing food more expensive and raise prices at the till.
- 家庭收入增长受阻在美国，特朗普任期内平均家庭收入仍在增长。
- Household income growth held back Average US household incomes are still rising under Trump.
调整通胀因素后，中位数收入在2025年增长了2.6%，达到87,460美元，为历史最高水平。
The median income - after adjusting for inflation - rose 2.6% in 2025 to $87,460, the highest on record, external.
然而，税收与经济政策研究所（ITEP）智库估计了以下因素对美国家庭的综合影响：此前，政府提供的额外补贴使得数百万美国人的医疗保险费用得以降低；如今这些补贴已到期。在特朗普第二个任期内，物价涨幅超出预期，其中包括受关税政策及伊朗局势影响带来的价格上涨。ITEP的研究结论显示：2026年时，收入处于中等水平的前20%家庭的平均经济状况会比原本预期差约1,700美元；而最贫困的前20%家庭的平均经济状况则会差约750美元。
However, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) think tank has estimated the combined effects of the following, external on US households: The expiry of extra government subsidies that had made health insurance cheaper for millions of Americans Higher-than-expected price rises during Trump's second term, including those linked to tariffs and the Iran war ITEP's conclusion is that the middle fifth of households are, on average, around $1,700 worse off in 2026 than they would have been, while the poorest fifth are around $750 worse off.
相比之下，最富有的1%人群的平均经济状况预计会比原本预期好12,560美元，这主要归功于特朗普推行的减税政策。
The richest 1%, by contrast, are estimated to be an average of $12,560 better off than they woud have been, primarily because of Trump's tax cuts.
ITEP关于不同收入水平的美国家庭受关税政策影响的估算结果，与外部智库税务基金会得出的结论大致相似。
ITEP's estimates about the impact of tariffs on American households of different income levels are broadly similar to those of the Tax Foundation think tank, external.
- 就业增长放缓特朗普曾预测，由于制造企业为规避边境关税而纷纷在美国本土新建工厂，美国将出现“就业岗位大量涌现”的局面。自他重返白宫以来，美国经济每月平均新增3.4万个就业岗位。
- Job creation slowed down Trump predicted his tariffs would result in America being "flooded with jobs", external as manufacturing firms set up new factories on US soil to avoid their products being taxed at the border. Since he returned to the White House, an average of 34,000 jobs have been added to the economy each month.
不过这一数值显著低于拜登总统任期末期每月新增12.2万个就业岗位的水平。截至2026年9月，美国制造业就业人数共计1,260万，这一数字略低于特朗普第二个任期开始时的水平。
But that is significantly down on the 122,000 jobs added each month in the final year of Biden's presidency, external. And the number of Americans employed in manufacturing, external - 12.6 million in September 2026 - is slightly lower than it was when Trump's second term began.
不过，美国失业率仍维持在4.2%这一较低水平，与特朗普重返白宫时的情况基本持平。出现这种情况的部分原因在于特朗普实施的移民管控及驱逐计划，该措施减少了美国劳动力市场的供给规模，从而降低了维持失业率稳定所需的每月新增就业岗位数量。
However, the US unemployment rate remains relatively low, external at 4.2%, which is broadly where it was when Trump returned to the White House. Part of the reason for this is Trump's immigration crackdown and deportation programme, which has reduced the size of the available US workforce, external and means a lower number of jobs need to be created each month to stop unemployment rising.
- 借贷成本上升在特朗普第二个任期内，美国政府的借贷规模有所增长，这一趋势部分是由其实施的大规模减税政策所推动。
- Borrowing costs rising US government borrowing has increased in Trump's second term, partly driven up by his significant tax cuts.
截至2026年9月的财政年度，美国联邦政府的财政赤字——即税收收入与支出之间的差额——达到了2万亿美元。这一数值约占美国国内生产总值的6%左右。
The federal government deficit - the gap between its revenues from taxes and its spending - was $2 trillion in the year to September 2026, external. That's equivalent to around 6%, external of US GDP.
预计至2030年，美国财政赤字占GDP的比重还将进一步上升至8%以上。
And the US deficit is projected to rise to above 8% of GDP by 2030, external.
如此高额的政府借贷规模本身也在一定程度上推动了美国国内生产总值的增长。
That high rate of government borrowing is itself helping to boost US GDP growth.
国际货币基金组织警告称，为弥补财政赤字而进行的过度政府借贷，以及持续攀升的国债规模，正在增加美国未来爆发金融危机的风险。一旦发生此类危机，绝大多数美国家庭都将遭受严重损害。
The IMF has warned that excessive US government borrowing, external, which it uses to bridge the deficit, and its rapidly rising national debt are raising the risk of a future financial crisis in America. This would have a deeply damaging impact on most American households.
财政赤字的持续扩大也是美国政府在金融市场上融资成本不断上升的原因之一。
The growing deficit is also one of the reasons the US government gets charged more to borrow money in financial markets.
自2025年1月特朗普重新就任总统以来，美国10年期国债收益率大幅攀升，目前已突破5%，创下2007年全球金融危机以来的最高水平。
The 10-year US government bond yield has risen sharply since Trump returned to office in January 2025 and is now above 5%, the highest rate since the global financial crisis in 2007.
政府借贷成本上升也推高了美国房贷利率。目前，新发放的30年期美国房贷年利率已升至7.4%，而特朗普上任时这一数值为6.9%。
That increase in the market cost of US government borrowing also puts upward pressure on the interest rates on mortgages available to American households. The interest rate on a new 30-year US mortgage has risen to 7.4%, external per year, up from 6.9% when Trump returned to the White House.
这一变化进一步加剧了美国房地产市场的困境：购房对新买家而言愈发难以负担；许多现有房主也不愿换房，因为那样就意味着要放弃此前以较低利率获得的房贷优惠，而这些优惠无法随房产转让而延续。数据图表由埃尔万·里沃绘制。
That's added to problems in the US housing market, making homes less affordable for new buyers. It has left many existing owners reluctant to move because doing so would mean giving up their cheaper mortgages, which they took out at lower rates, external and cannot take with them to a new property. Data graphics by Erwan Rivault.
