特朗普总统将他那永不满足的争议热情带到了选举日历中最为严酷的时段，并凭借十年来的政治生存能力加以支撑。
President Trump is carrying his insatiable appetite for controversy into the most unforgiving stretch of the electoral calendar, fortified by a decade of political survival.
- “归根结底，一切都会好起来的。你知道为什么吗？因为它总会好起来的，”特朗普本周对记者说。
• "Bottom line, it's gonna all work out. You know why? It always does," Trump told reporters this week.
为何重要：单一的“十月惊奇”已成过去，在特朗普最后一次中期选举的最后几周里，一连串丑闻、挑衅和打破惯例的行为持续不断。
Why it matters: Gone are the days of a single "October surprise," swallowed by a familiar barrage of scandals, provocations and shattered conventions that have persisted in the closing weeks of Trump's final midterm election.
大局： Axios记录了特朗普在第二任期内对总统规范的持续瓦解，从过渡期到其任职第一年的头100天。
The big picture: Axios has documented Trump's steady demolition of presidential norms in his second term, from the transition through his first 100 days first year in office.
- 今年，即使面临失去国会——以及随之而来的未来两年推进其议程的大部分能力——也几乎未能抑制特朗普总统任期的步伐或胆量。
• This year, even the threat of losing Congress — and with it, much of his ability to pursue his agenda over the next two years — has done little to temper the pace or audacity of Trump's presidency. Consider the first 15 days of October alone,
仅看10月的头15天，以及一系列本可能动摇更传统总统任期根基的争议：
and the succession of controversies that might have shaken the foundation of a more conventional presidency:
- 对政治对手的突袭：联邦特工搜查了众议员伊尔汉·奥马尔（民主党-明尼苏达州）的家并扣押了她的手机，这是一项旨在剥夺这位现任国会议员美国公民身份并最终将其驱逐出境的调查的一部分，《华尔街日报》报道。奥马尔否认有不当行为。
• Raid on a political opponent: Federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) home and seized her phone as part of an investigation aimed at stripping the sitting member of Congress of her U.S. citizenship and ultimately deporting her, the Wall Street Journal reports. Omar denies wrongdoing.
- 呼吁枪杀泄密者：特朗普在亚利桑那州的竞选集会上表示，泄露敏感军事情报的官员“应该被枪杀”，他援引了一个早先的时代，当时他声称政府经常处决泄密者。
• Calls to shoot leakers: Trump declared at an Arizona campaign rally that officials who leak sensitive military information "should be shot," invoking an earlier era when he claimed the government routinely executed leakers.
- 对普京的让步：特朗普放宽了对俄罗斯柴油的制裁，要求罢免乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基，并向基施施压，要求其停止攻击俄罗斯炼油厂。上周五晚间，特朗普根据一项两党法律豁免了广泛的新的对俄制裁，该法律以已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的名字命名，而他就在上个月签署了该法律。
关键事实：
• Concessions to Vladimir Putin: Trump eased sanctions on Russian diesel, demanded the ouster of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pressured Kyiv to stop attacking Russian refineries. Late Friday night, Trump waived sweeping new Russia sanctions under a bipartisan law named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham that he signed just last month.
- 纳税人资助的政治广告：特朗普花费了数百万纳税人的钱制作宣传其总统竞选的广告，直到一名联邦法官下令停止这些广告的播放。随后，他指示自己的政治行动委员会（MAGA Inc.）继续资助此类广告的制作，但这引发了另一起指控其违反竞选资金法的诉讼。
• Taxpayer-funded political ads: Trump spent millions in taxpayer dollars on campaign-style ads promoting his presidency, until a federal judge ordered them halted. He then directed his MAGA Inc. super PAC to finance future spots, drawing a separate complaint alleging violations of campaign-finance law.
- 联邦政府对媒体的打压：在ABC、CBS、CNN、Fox News和NBC等媒体因特朗普禁止某些新闻机构报道白宫活动而暂停相关报道后，美国司法部对这些媒体展开了反垄断调查。
• Federal crackdown on the press: The Justice Department launched an antitrust investigation into ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News and NBC after the networks suspended White House pool coverage to protest Trump's ban on three news organizations.
- 关于选举的承诺：特朗普承诺如果共和党继续控制国会，他将向每位美国成年人发放5000美元的支票；他还明确表示，超过1万亿美元的联邦拨款将取决于中期选举的结果。
• $5,000 election promise: Trump pledged to send every adult American a $5,000 check if Republicans retain control of Congress, explicitly tying more than $1 trillion in proposed federal payments to the outcome of the midterms.
- 司法部对中期选举的干预：在选举进行期间，司法部起诉加利福尼亚州，要求阻止2万张疑似由非公民投出的选票被计入有效票数——这是影响美国选举的系列行动中的最新举措。
• DOJ intervention in the midterms: With voting already underway, the Justice Department sued California to block 20,000 ballots from suspected noncitizens — the latest escalation in a sweeping campaign to affect American elections.
- 令人震惊的社交媒体内容：特朗普发布了老虎袭击人类的血腥视频，并配以欢快的音乐；此外，他还发布了一段由人工智能生成的视频，显示自己与老虎搏斗并拥抱老虎。
• Grisly social-media posts: Trump posted footage of a man being fatally mauled by a tiger, followed by a montage of animal attacks set to upbeat music and an AI-generated video of himself wrestling and embracing a tiger.
- 企业对特朗普活动的资助：《华盛顿邮报》获得的秘密文件显示，许多企业和亿万富翁为特朗普的白宫活动提供了资金支持，其中一些捐赠者从政府合同、监管决策或总统赦免中获得了利益。
• $333 million in ballroom donations: Secret records obtained by the Washington Post revealed the corporations and billionaires bankrolling Trump's White House ballroom, including donors who benefited from government contracts, regulatory decisions and a presidential pardon involving a family member.
另一方的观点： 10月份发生的三起事件迫使特朗普多次公开道歉或采取退让措施——这些事件大多是由外部压力导致的。
The other side: Three October episodes forced Trump into rare retreats — largely of other people's making.
- 关于电视直播处决的争议：在两党强烈反对的情况下，特朗普取消了通过行刑队直播一名被判有罪的大屠杀犯处决的计划。
• A televised execution: Trump scrapped the plan to livestream a convicted mass murderer's execution by firing squad after bipartisan outrage.
- 一名大使的垮台：特朗普迫使金伯莉·吉尔福伊尔辞去驻希腊大使一职。吉尔福伊尔曾与其儿子订婚四年，直至2024年。有报道称，她向一名政治捐款人索要10万美元，用于支付个人信用卡账单。吉尔福伊尔否认有不当行为。
• An ambassador's downfall: Trump forced Kimberly Guilfoyle — who was engaged to his son for four years until 2024 — to resign as ambassador to Greece after reports that she solicited $100,000 from a political donor to cover personal credit-card bills. Guilfoyle denies wrongdoing.
- 一位五天新闻秘书：特朗普解雇了凯蒂·扎卡里亚，此前她的法律资质受到审查，其首秀也遭到广泛批评。《axios》报道称，特朗普得知扎卡里亚——他曾将其介绍为律师——从未通过律师资格考试，感到措手不及。
• A five-day press secretary: Trump ousted Katie Zacharia amid scrutiny of her legal credentials and a widely criticized debut. Axios reports Trump was blindsided to learn that Zacharia — whom he had introduced as an attorney — had never passed the bar exam. What they're saying:
他们说：政府远非将十月视为政治危机月份，反而将其庆祝为特朗普政绩的延续。
Far from seeing October as a month of political peril, the administration is celebrating it as a continuation of Trump's record.
- “自其政府第一天起，特朗普总统就大胆且始终如一地兑现了竞选承诺，保护国家安全，让美国更美丽，确保边境安全，打击犯罪，确保选举自由公平，并让生活更加负担得起，”白宫发言人艾莉森·舒斯特对《axios》表示。
• "Since Day One of his administration, President Trump has boldly and consistently fulfilled on his campaign promises to protect national security, make America beautiful, secure the border, crack down on crime, ensure free and fair elections, and make life more affordable," White House spokesperson Allison Schuster told Axios.
- “十月将是另一个令人难以置信的月份，”她补充道。
• "October is shaping up to be another incredible month," she added.
深层含义：特朗普十年来一直违抗政治规律。但帮助他在首个任期内免受冲击的经济实力，如今已让位于日益加深的公众信任危机。
Between the lines: Trump has spent a decade defying political gravity. But the economic strength that helped insulate him during his first term has given way to a deepening crisis of public confidence.
- 周三发布的一项福克斯新闻民调显示，特朗普的支持率为36%——这是他两个任期内的最低水平——包括他在通胀问题上毁灭性的22%支持率。
• A Fox News poll released Wednesday put Trump's approval at 36% — his lowest in either presidency — including a devastating 22% for his handling of inflation.
- 在同一份福克斯民调中，政府腐败略微超过通胀，成为选民最为极度关切的问题。
• In the same Fox poll, government corruption narrowly surpassed inflation as the issue drawing the most extreme concern from voters.
结论：特朗普正将一个极度政治脆弱的时刻视为常态，赌注在于，将他带到今天的直觉现在不会让他失望。
The bottom line: Trump is treating a moment of maximum political vulnerability like business as usual, betting that the instincts that carried him this far won't fail him now.