
加利福尼亚州长滩 — — 10月9日清晨3点30分,肖恩·柯蒂斯所在的两层海滨公寓楼前的木板步道不翼而飞,宽25英尺的沙滩也消失不见,海水从四面八方灌入,建筑物此刻正朝着海洋倾斜下去。柯蒂斯无法理解自己眼前所见的景象。“门框歪了,窗户也歪了,接着我看到一股巨浪冲撞过来,”他周四对NBC新闻说。巨浪一路冲上了二楼。
LONG BEACH, Calif. — It was 3:30 a.m. on Oct. 9 and the unthinkable was happening all around Shawn Curtis: The boardwalk in front of his two-story beachfront apartment building was gone. The 25-foot-wide sand beach was gone. Salt water poured in from all sides. And now the building was slanting down into the ocean. Curtis couldn’t make sense of what he saw. “The doorframe was crooked. The window was crooked, and then I saw a big wave crash,” he told NBC News on Thursday. The surf crashed all the way up to the second floor.
街对面的邻居表示,他们能看到海水倾泻落在柯蒂斯居住了九年的房子屋顶上。轰鸣的海浪声足以把他惊醒,并让公寓剧烈摇晃,仿佛地震般的震动穿过建筑,他说。“我们为生死而奔逃,但房子已经完蛋了这一点很清楚,”柯蒂斯说,指的是他的室友。“这是注定的结局。一切都毁了。”厄尔尼诺现象的最严重阶段仍需数月才会到来,但南加州脆弱的海岸线已经因创纪录的皇家潮汐和风暴潮而正在被改变。
Neighbors across the street said they could see water cascading down onto the roof of Curtis’ home of nine years. Booming waves were loud enough to wake him and shake his apartment as though an earthquake rippled through, he said. “We rushed for our lives, but it was clear the house was toast,” Curtis said, referring to his roommate. “It was a foregone conclusion. It was gone.”The worst of El Niño is still months away, but Southern California’s fragile coastline is already being transformed by record-setting king tides and storm surges.

今年异常活跃的飓风季节引发了一连串风暴,袭击了夏威夷和墨西哥。这种历史性的天气模式导致长滩海岸线上十余座房屋被毁,木板步道被吞噬,太平洋海岸公路更南段的部分路段也被淹没。“这只是我们未来将要看到的一点点前兆,”加州大学洛杉矶分校沿海洪水实验室的蒂穆·加利恩警告说。上周末,破坏性的海浪从马里布冲击到圣地亚哥的沿海社区,新港 Beach 社区被洪水淹没,长滩一些曾经依靠宽阔沙滩和加固木板步道获保护的住宅被迫疏散人员。就在一个阳光明媚、风平浪静的周末,灾难在毫无预警的情况下蔓延开来。
An unusually active hurricane season triggered a trio of storms that pummeled Hawaii and Mexico earlier this year. The historic weather pattern claimed more than a dozen homes along the shore in Long Beach, swallowing up boardwalks and portions of the Pacific Coast Highway farther south. “This is just a little bit of a taste of what we will see in the future,” warned Timu Gallien with the Coastal Flood Lab at the University of California, Los Angeles. Last weekend, destructive surf thrashed coastal communities from Malibu to San Diego, flooding neighborhoods in Newport Beach and forcing people to evacuate homes in Long Beach that were once protected by wide sand beaches and reinforced boardwalks. The devastation spread on a sunny, calm weekend without warning. California did not experience any rain or wind before massive swells overtook Laguna Beach, where a portion of the PCH remains closed as sections crack and slide down toward the ocean.

在巨大的海浪席卷拉古纳海滩之前,加利福尼亚州并未出现任何降雨或强风。目前,由于部分路面出现裂痕并向海中滑落,太平洋海岸公路的某些路段仍处于封闭状态。“人们根本意识不到这里原本是一片海滩,”长滩半岛居民达娜·玛丽·拉扎雷斯基周四说道,“这些房子原本并不临海。”
“People don’t realize there was a beach here,” Long Beach Peninsula resident Dana Marie Lazzareschi said Thursday. “These houses aren’t on the water.”Paradise lost Lazzareschi said she fell in love with the peninsula’s diversity and sense of community when she first moved into her rental four years ago.
拉扎雷斯基说,四年前刚搬来时,她便爱上了这片半岛的多元氛围与邻里温情。邻居们热情友善、互相照应,常带着狗狗散步或骑自行车,谁有需要都会立刻伸出援手。然而10月9日,当她目睹海浪拍上屋顶时,不禁开始担忧自己还能在这里住多久。“现在我绝对不会在这里买房,”她说,“可这里真的宛如人间天堂。”
Neighbors were chatty and looked out for each other. They walked their dogs, rode bicycles up and down the street and were quick to help if someone needed it. But on Oct. 9, as she watched waves splash onto rooftops, she wondered how long she could stay. “I definitely wouldn’t buy a home here now,” she said. “But it really is such a dream.”
数十年来,科学家与海洋生物学家一直警告称,全球气温升高将导致海平面上升,进而引发更多沿海洪水。今年,这些长期存在的因素又与有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象同时发生。厄尔尼诺是一种自然气候现象,常引发东南部地区强降雨与风暴,同时使太平洋西北部气温升高,进而催生危险巨浪。不仅如此,在海底传播数百英里的开尔文波还会使海浪高度再增加一英尺左右。
For decades, scientists and marine biologists have warned that increasing global temperatures would trigger rising sea levels and inevitably lead to more coastal flooding. This year, those existing factors coincide with what is predicted to become the strongest El Niño event in recorded history. El Niño is a natural climate pattern associated with intense rainfall and storms in the Southeast and warm conditions in the Pacific Northwest that can cause strong, dangerous surf. But it doesn’t end there. Kelvin waves, which travel hundreds of miles underwater, can cause waves to rise another foot.

美国国家海洋和大气管理局指出,单凭开尔文波本身通常不会引发沿海洪水,但若与超过7英尺的涨潮及风暴潮叠加,便可能引发灾难性后果。
Alone, Kelvin waves generally don’t lead to coastal flooding, but when paired with high tides that exceed 7 feet and storm surges on top of that, the combination can be catastrophic, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“虽然目前海浪与潮位略有回落,但沿海洪水仍在持续,而且未来数月情况也不会好转,”气候学家丹尼尔·斯韦恩说道。
“Although the waves and the tide levels are receding slightly right now, very slightly, there still is ongoing coastal flooding, and this is not really going to get any better for months,” said climate scientist Daniel Swain.


“事实上,情况在好转之前可能会变得更糟,”他说,并补充说北加州将在11月和12月开始出现类似情况。南加州沿海社区在劳动节周末开始经历危险状况,原因是飓风玛丽的残余。随后,九月底飓风波洛的残余以及现在的热带风暴瑞秋接连袭击。加利恩表示,历史性厄尔尼诺现象的峰值预计将在明年早些时候到来,但今年还将有三轮季节性高潮,可能带来更多洪水和侵蚀。
“In fact, it’s likely to get worse before it gets better,” he said, adding that Northern California will begin to experience similar behavior in November and December. Coastal communities in Southern California began to experience dangerous conditions over Labor Day weekend with the remnants of Hurricane Marie. That was followed soon after by remnants of Hurricane Polo at the end of September and now Tropical Storm Rachel. The peak of a historic El Niño is expected to hit early next year, but three more rounds of seasonal high tides this year will likely bring more flooding and erosion, said Gallien, who is also an associate professor of environmental and civil engineering at UCLA.
她同时也是加州大学洛杉矶分校环境与土木工程学院的副教授。“大量水流正冲向我们的海岸,”她说。‘未为此设计’在失去住所两周前,柯蒂斯告诉房东他想搬走,他说。由飓风玛丽和波洛引发的七英尺高浪已经冲毁了他公寓前的木板路,他担心随着预计将在一月和二月达到峰值的厄尔尼诺到来,损害只会进一步恶化。
“It’s a lot of water pointed at our coast,” she said. ‘Not built for this’ Two weeks before losing his home, Curtis told his landlord he wanted to move out, he said. Seven-foot waves triggered by hurricanes Marie and Polo had already eaten away at the boardwalk in front of his apartment and he worried that the damage would only worsen with the incoming El Niño that is expected to peak in January and February.

本月早些时候,长滩市工作人员使用木板和沙袋修补了飓风造成的木板路墙上的洞口,但这些加固措施未能经受住考验。上周,市长雷克斯·理查森告诉记者,该市“基础设施并非为此而建”,并表示维修工作将在低潮期间继续进行。但居民和专家正在质疑,在气候变化加剧的情况下,沿海生活还能持续多久。“我们喜欢在这些脆弱地区居住,因为它们很美丽,”加利恩说。
Using wooden planks and sandbags, Long Beach City work crews earlier this month had patched up holes in the boardwalk’s wall created by the hurricanes, but the reinforcements did not hold. Mayor Rex Richardson told reporters last week that the city’s “infrastructure was not built for this” and said repairs will continue during the lower tides. But residents and experts are questioning how much longer coastal living will be possible with rapid climate change. “We love to live in these vulnerable places because they are beautiful,” Gallien said.


“这取决于特定房主或特定社区,甚至特定市政当局的风险容忍度有多大。工程师能否保护建筑物?”这是让官员、居民和专家夜不能寐的最大问题之一。
“It comes down to what is a risk tolerance for a given homeowner or a given community, or a given municipality. Can engineers protect structures?”This is one of the biggest questions keeping officials, residents and experts up at night.
虽然加利福尼亚州海岸线的持续损害具有历史性,但这并不一定是前所未有的。在过去的厄尔尼诺期间,海岸侵蚀曾导致太平洋海岸公路(PCH)沿线发生洪水,包括20世纪80年代中期和90年代末。在长滩半岛,热带风暴瑞秋的残留在海外掀起高达17英尺的海浪,导致10月9日至11日期间十几座房屋倒塌入海。共有8栋建筑、13套住宅被认定为无法进入的危险建筑。
While the ongoing damage to California’s coastline is historic in nature, it is not necessarily unprecedented. Coastal erosion has caused flooding along the PCH during previous El Niños, including in the mid-1980s and late 1990s. On the Long Beach Peninsula, more than a dozen homes crumbled into the ocean between Oct. 9 and 11 when the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel stirred offshore waves up to 17 feet tall. Eight structures encompassing 13 homes were deemed too unsafe to enter.
柯蒂斯说,他喜欢每天早上醒来时听到海浪的舒缓声音。他的前门通向一条热门的海滨步道,当地人和游客在此欣赏壮丽的海景。当他的公寓开始倒塌时,柯蒂斯说,他和室友赶紧把能搬的东西往建筑物后部和车库里推,车库仍然干燥且感觉更稳固。他通过卧室窗户带着他的狗卢克斯逃出,来到街道另一侧——那里面向海湾,此次未受损害。
Curtis said he loved waking up to the soothing sound of surf every morning. His front door opened onto a popular boardwalk filled with locals and visitors taking in the stunning views. When his apartment began to collapse, Curtis said he and his roommate rushed to shove whatever they could toward the back of the building and into the garage, which remained dry and felt more stable. He escaped by climbing through his bedroom window with his dog Lux and went to the other side of the street, which faces the bay and evaded damage this time.

几天 later,朋友们向柯蒂斯展示了无人机拍摄的画面,显示他最喜欢的沙发正漂浮在海面上。“这只是张沙发,”他说。“我为邻居们感到非常难过。”隔壁的一栋三层独栋住宅本周仍然空置。其主人——一个三口之家——在热带风暴瑞秋的残留摧毁他们的房产之前,就已离开去乘坐邮轮。从地基一直延伸到屋顶的一道巨大裂缝蜿蜒而上,威胁将房屋一分为二。
A few days later, friends showed Curtis drone footage of his favorite couch floating in the ocean. “It’s just a couch,” he said. “I feel really bad for the neighbors.”Next door, a three-floor single-family home remained empty this week. Its owners, a family of three, left for a cruise before the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel destroyed their property. A giant crack snaked from the foundation up to the roof, threatening to split the house in two.

柯蒂斯说,他告诉他们只需好好享受假期。他们无能为力。无法联系到该家人置评。周四,柯蒂斯的室友(不愿具名)匆忙将他仅救出的少量物品搬进一辆U-Haul卡车,而检查员和承包商在一旁观察。室友们表示,租户只有两个小时时间抢救能带走的东西,之后工作人员将开始拆除建筑的危险过程。
Curtis said he told them just to enjoy their vacation. There was nothing they could do. The family could not be reached for comment. On Thursday, Curtis’ roommate, who did not want to be named, rushed to shove what few belongings he saved into a U-Haul truck as inspectors and contractors looked on. Tenants had two hours to retrieve what they could before crews would begin the dangerous process of tearing down the building, the roommates said.

沿着街区走着,柯蒂斯环顾着自己居住的街区,脸上带着那种刚刚从灾难中脱险之人的神情。他已经连续几天穿着同样的衣服,甚至记不清今天是几号了。这些天对他而言就像一场混乱的旋风——不停地给房东、市政官员、家人和保险公司打电话、发邮件。当被问及是否考虑离开这座半岛时,他毫不犹豫地答道:“绝对不可能。不过我会搬到半岛的另一侧去。”
Down the block, Curtis walked around his neighborhood with the unmistakable countenance of someone who had just survived a disaster. He’d been wearing the same clothes for a few days and couldn’t remember the date. Days had blurred together into a whirlwind of phone calls and emails to his landlord, city officials, family and insurance. When asked whether he would consider leaving the peninsula, he did not hesitate. “Not a chance,” he said. “But I am moving to the other side.