加拿大央行预计将在本月因原油和石油产品价格持续高企而显著上调其季度通胀预测，行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆周六表示。
The Bank of Canada expects to raise its quarterly inflation forecast significantly this month owing to persistently high crude oil and petroleum product prices, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Saturday.
新的季度通胀和增长预测将用于加拿大央行10月28日的利率决策。
New quarterly inflation and growth forecasts will feed into the BoC's rate decision on October 28.
“随着（中东）冲突持续，货运仍受限且炼油产能受损，通胀扩大并变得更具持续性的风险已经上升，” 麦克勒姆在曼谷的电话会议上对记者说。
"With the (Middle East) conflict ongoing, shipments still curtailed and refinery capacity damage, the risk that inflation broadens and becomes more persistent has gone up," Macklem told journalists on a conference call from Bangkok.
“我们的指引是2%的通胀目标，我们致力于在长期内使通胀保持接近目标。我们将根据需要调整货币政策。” 货币市场对加息的预期在过去几个月中一直在增长，但截至周六，市场并未将10月28日的任何变化或银行今年最后一次货币政策决策（即12月的决策）计价在内。然而，他们正在将全年内累计加息100个基点计价在内。
"Our beacon is our 2% inflation target, and we are committed to keeping inflation close to target over time. We are prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed." Money market expectations of an increase in rates have been growing in the last few months but, as of Saturday, markets were not pricing in any change on October 28 or at the bank's last monetary policy decision of the year in December.
麦克勒姆表示，尽管中东冲突和俄乌战争持续，全球经济已表现出韧性，但这种韧性正因成本上升和金融状况收紧而受到考验。他表示，政府也财政空间减少，需要调整政策以重建该能力。
However, they are pricing in increases of 100 basis points over the course of next year. Macklem said the global economy had shown resilience despite the conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, but that resilience was being tested by higher costs and tighter financial conditions.
对央行行长而言，主要关注点在于确定更高的油价和产品价格是否会向更广泛的经济传导。
He said governments also had less fiscal room to maneuver and needed to adjust their policies to rebuild that capacity.
谈及将在10月28日作出的决策时，麦克勒姆说：“我们将要问自己的问题是，‘通胀是否可能自行回落至我们的目标附近，还是我们将不得不加息以影响路径、推动通胀路径回归目标？’。”}
For central bankers, the main concern is to ascertain whether higher oil and product prices will spill over into the broader economy. Speaking about the decision to be made on October 28, Macklem said: "The question we are going to be asking ourselves is, 'Is inflation likely to come back down towards our target on its own, or are we going to have to raise interest rates to influence the path, nudge the path for inflation back towards the target?'."