参议员罗杰·马歇尔并不急着离开华盛顿。随着一些同事坚持要求在八月提前休会，以便脆弱的共和党现任议员能够回家竞选，这位来自堪萨斯州的共和党人对这种压力不以为意。
Sen. Roger Marshall was in no rush to leave Washington. As some colleagues insisted the chamber recess early in August so vulnerable GOP incumbents could head home to campaign, the Kansas Republican shrugged off the pressure.
“如果我们能在这里待357天，那么我就会回去为剩下的时间竞选，”当时他说，推动通过特朗普总统倡导的《拯救美国法案》。马歇尔表示，他为在十一月获胜做好了“非常充分”的准备。他在这个坚定的红州的竞选被认为对共和党来说是稳操胜券的。
“If we can spend 357 days up here, then I’ll go back and campaign the rest,” he said at the time, pushing for passage of the SAVE America Act championed by President Trump. Marshall said he was set up “very nicely” for a win in November. His race in the solidly red state was considered safe in Republican hands.
“如果一年后我们仍不在多数派之列，”马歇尔在八月的采访中说道，“那么我现在在这里的生活就是浪费。”如今，距离选举仅剩几周，民意调查显示，这场竞争已不再是必胜局面。马歇尔正与民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿展开胶着竞争，汉密尔顿是全国出席人数最多的联合卫理公会教会的创始人，他自称为中间派，并与党的领导层保持距离。多家政治评级网站将此次竞选称为摇摆不定，而在2024年，特朗普在此州以16个百分点的优势获胜。
“If we’re not in the majority a year from now,” Marshall said in the August interview, “then my life is a waste up here right now.”Now, with just weeks to go until the election, polls indicate the race is no sure thing. Marshall is running neck and neck with Democrat Adam Hamilton, the founder of the nation’s largest United Methodist congregation by attendance, who casts himself as a centrist and has distanced himself from party leadership. Multiple political rating sites call the contest a tossup, in a state Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024.
围绕马歇尔的一系列争议、对农民造成压力的关税、高昂的汽油和柴油价格，以及共和党在全国范围内的疲软形势，共同构成了分析人士所谓的“完美风暴”，使堪萨斯州的局势变得扑朔迷离——这也让民主党首次在近一个世纪内有机会赢得堪萨斯州的参议院席位。
A series of controversies surrounding Marshall, tariffs squeezing farmers, high gas and diesel prices and a weak national environment for Republicans have created what analysts call a perfect storm to put Kansas in play—giving Democrats a shot to win a Kansas Senate seat for the first time in nearly a century.
“尽管这里的基本面如此倾向共和党，胜算仍然倾向马歇尔，”堪萨斯州艾姆波里亚州立大学的政治学家迈克尔·史密斯说道。“但汉密尔顿已经让这成为了一场竞赛。而且我认为，未决定的选民足够多，他们将决定选举结果。”随着共和党在参议院中53比47的多数优势岌岌可危，特朗普正在社交媒体上抨击汉密尔顿，并将于周一前往威奇托附近的一个城市为马歇尔助选——这正是马歇尔所说的至关重要之举。马歇尔在最后阶段表现出信心。
“The odds still—because just the baseline here is so Republican—favor Marshall,” said Michael Smith, a political scientist at Emporia State University in Kansas. “But Hamilton’s made it a race. And I do think there are enough undecideds that they will decide the election.”With the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority on the line, Trump is lashing out against Hamilton on social media and is headed to a city near Wichita on Monday to stump for Marshall, something the senator said will be critical. Marshall projects confidence in the final stretch.
“在过去的10天里，我看到的情况是共和党人正在回归，”马歇尔在阿奇森的一家农村医院外说，当时他正与名人医生、医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心行政管理员梅赫梅特·奥兹博士一起进行最近的一次竞选活动。“还有什么选择？你知道的，另一种选择就是让我的对手进入参议院。那样的话就会让查克·舒默掌控局面，”他说，指的是来自纽约的民主党少数党领袖。
“What I’ve seen even in the last 10 days is Republicans coming home,” said Marshall, outside of a rural hospital in Atchison, at a recent campaign stop with Dr. Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator. “What’s the alternative? You know, the alternative, you elect my opponent to the Senate. That would give Chuck Schumer control,” he said, referring to the Democratic minority leader from New York.
根据熟悉这些对话的人士透露，超过一年来，党内工作人员一直在警告马歇尔，他的竞选需要筹集资金、组建一个稳固的团队，并且不能掉以轻心，因为党内资源需要用于更为胶着的选举。本月，一个与共和党领导层结盟的超级政治行动委员会——参议院领导基金——宣布将向该竞选投入1400万美元，这是他们此前未计划在此处花费的资金。其民主党对手——参议院多数派政治行动委员会——也加入了这场竞选，投入了500万美元。
For over a year, party operatives have given Marshall warnings that his campaign needed to raise money, build a solid team and not get comfortable, because party resources needed to be spent in tighter races, according to people familiar with the conversations. This month, a super PAC aligned with GOP leadership, the Senate Leadership Fund, announced it would put $14 million into the race—money it hadn’t planned to spend there. Its Democratic counterpart, Senate Majority PAC, also jumped into the race, dropping $5 million.
根据最近的联邦选举申报文件，自1月份以来，汉密尔顿的竞选筹集了1350万美元，而马歇尔的竞选仅筹集了220万美元。截至9月30日，马歇尔的竞选团队没有列出任何有薪员工。
Since January, Hamilton’s campaign has raised $13.5 million to just $2.2 million for Marshall, according to recent federal election filings. Marshall’s campaign listed no paid staff as of Sept. 30.
根据熟悉竞选情况的人士透露，马歇尔的幕僚长布伦特·罗伯森直到大约一周前一直负责竞选运营。罗伯森在上周六联系了资深共和党战略家克里斯·格兰特，因为竞选团队当时决定他们需要帮助和更多人手，这由两位资深共和党内部人士透露。Axios率先报道了这一招聘。
Brent Robertson, Marshall’s chief of staff, headed campaign operations until roughly a week ago, according to people familiar with the campaign. Robertson reached out to veteran Republican strategist Chris Grant last Saturday, after the campaign had decided they needed help, and more bodies, two senior GOP operatives said. Axios first reported the hire.
其中一位内部人士表示，重振竞选的初步措施包括制作一些正面描绘马歇尔医疗生涯的广告，以及更高效地使用竞选资金。
Initial steps to rekindle the campaign included ads portraying Marshall’s medical career favorably, and spending campaign funds more efficiently, one of the operatives said.
罗伯森表示，引入增援力量是显而易见的选择。随着特朗普准备前往该州，“我们在堪萨斯州已经让所有齿轮开始转动，”他说。汉密尔顿及其盟友的广告突出了一系列围绕马歇尔的争议。
Robertson called bringing in reinforcements a no-brainer. With Trump headed to the state, “We’ve got all the gears cranking in Kansas,” he said.
《纽约时报》9月报道称，产科妇科医生马歇尔因账单金额低至101美元而起诉了超过700名患者。上周，MS NOW与非营利新闻组织《堪萨斯反射报》的联合调查报道称，马歇尔和罗伯逊利用国会工作人员和纳税人资金进行竞选，这可能违反国会规则和联邦法律。
Ads from Hamilton and allies highlight a series of controversies surrounding Marshall.
“这只是我们对手的又一个谎言。他一直在编造重大谎言。这是一场绝望的竞选。我们遵守了所有规则，”马歇尔在周日接受《华尔街日报》采访时谈到纳税人资金时如此表示。他曾表示，关于患者的报道构成了一场抹黑运动。
The New York Times reported in September that Marshall, an obstetrician-gynecologist, sued more than 700 patients over bills as small as $101. Last week, a joint investigation by MS NOW and the Kansas Reflector, a nonprofit news organization, reported Marshall and Robertson used congressional staff and taxpayer money for the campaign, a potential violation of congressional rules and federal law.
与此同时，一位面包师在社交媒体上发文称，马歇尔的竞选团队从未为其为2020年某场活动订购的点心付款，该帖子随后走红。马歇尔在X平台上回应了“未付的2020年饼干账单”，称其团队当时不知情，此后已向面包师支付了双倍费用。
“This is one more lie by our opponent. He’s continuing having major lies. They’re a desperate campaign. We follow all the rules,” Marshall told The Wall Street Journal Sunday when asked about the taxpayer funds. He has said the report about patients amounted to a smear campaign.
马歇尔面临着来自汉密尔顿的强劲挑战者。汉密尔顿虽是政治新人，但堪萨斯州有些人对他并不陌生。他已出版超过30本书，其中许多被该州各地的圣经学习小组所使用。
Around the same time, a baker posted on social media that Marshall’s campaign never paid for treats it ordered for a 2020 event, and the post went viral. Marshall took to X to address the “unpaid 2020 cookie bill,” saying his team was unaware and had since paid the baker double.
“我不会赢得极端派的支持。我是一个激进的中间派，”汉密尔顿在林斯博格的一场竞选活动后对记者如此表示，当时他自称为“自由派保守派和保守派自由派”，视一周中的哪一天和具体议题而定。汉密尔顿批评了特朗普，并拒绝了自己党派的建制派。他称舒默在堪萨斯州是“负担”，并主张如果该党获得多数席位，就需要新的领导层。
Marshall faces a formidable challenger in Hamilton, who is new to politics but not to some Kansans. He has written more than 30 books, many of them taught in Bible study groups across the state.
马歇尔及其盟友指责汉密尔顿是伪装成中间派的自由派，以在红州获胜。一个超级政治行动委员会的广告剪辑了2020年关于黑人的命也是命和气候变化的布道片段。汉密尔顿的竞选团队称这些剪辑是不诚实的。
“I’m not going to win the extremes. I’m a radical centrist,” Hamilton told reporters after a campaign event in Lindsborg where he touted himself as a “liberal conservative and a conservative liberal, depending on the day of the week and the issue.”Hamilton criticized Trump and rejected his own party’s establishment. He said Schumer was a “liability” in Kansas and called for new leadership if the party takes the majority.
政治与争议的交织让一些选民感到手足无措。休斯顿的共和党人、教会秘书戴安娜·盖伊表示，她担心汉密尔顿上任后会太自由派，但“我可能在投票给马歇尔时会遇到困难。所以，我可能根本就不会投票，”她说。
Marshall and his allies allege Hamilton is a liberal posing as a centrist to win in a red state. One super PAC’s ad splices clips from 2020 sermons on Black Lives Matter and climate change. Hamilton’s campaign calls the edits dishonest.
在竞选途中，汉密尔顿向熟悉他讲道的教会信徒伸出橄榄枝，同时也在向世俗选民推销自己。
The collision of politics and controversies has left some voters flustered. Diana Geuy, a Republican and church secretary in Hutchinson, said she fears Hamilton would be too liberal in office, but “I may struggle with voting for Marshall. So, I would probably just not vote,” she said.
在埃尔斯沃思的一家老年中心，汉密尔顿向人群保证，他参选并非为了成为“参议院的牧师”。他向现场属于全球卫理公会的观众致意，该教会于2022年因承认同性婚姻和祝圣同性神职人员而与他的教派分裂，而这两点汉密尔顿都持支持态度。“如果您恰好是GMC成员，我只想说，我爱您，”他在活动中说道。
On the trail, Hamilton reaches out to churchgoers who know him from the pulpit, while pitching himself to secular voters.
包括特朗普和副总统JD·万斯在内的顶级共和党人一直在宗教问题上针对汉密尔顿。
At a senior center in Ellsworth, Hamilton assured the crowd he wasn’t running to be the “chaplain of the Senate.”He gave a shout to audience members who belonged to the Global Methodist Church, which broke from his denomination in 2022 over its recognition of same-sex marriage and ordination of gay clergy, both of which Hamilton supports. “If you happen to be GMC, I just want to say I love you,” he said at the event.
在9月份奥拉瑟的一次集会上，万斯谴责了教会在当地骄傲节庆中的存在。“那不是基督教。那是左翼激进主义，披着我们宗教的外衣，”他说。
Top Republicans, including Trump and Vice President JD Vance, have taken aim at Hamilton over religion.
“如果你在攻击某人的信仰，那就说明你很绝望，”汉密尔顿作出回应。
At a September rally in Olathe, Vance condemned the church’s presence at local Pride festivals. “That is not Christianity. That is left-wing radicalism dressed in the skin suit of our religion,” he said.
请写信给玛雅·戴维斯，邮箱为maya.davis@wsj.com。
“If you’re attacking somebody’s faith, it says you’re desperate,” responded Hamilton.