中国被呼吁借鉴五角大楼的一个项目来评估未来战争，但也被警告要避免美国国防审查可能带来的利益冲突及其他不足。
China has been urged to learn from a Pentagon project to assess future warfare but warned to avoid the potential conflicts of interest and other shortcomings of the US defence review.
“子午线”项目于上月下旬启动，旨在识别未来战场需求并优先安排投资，重点聚焦人工智能、自主系统、定向能、机器人和生物技术等领域。
Project Meridian, launched late last month, is designed to identify future battlefield requirements and prioritise investment, with a focus on areas such as artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, directed energy, robotics and biotechnology.
北京智库蓝军开源情报研究院周五发表的一份分析报告建议，中国应从其对不同军事领域的评估、军民分析人员的合作以及将技术发展与作战需求挂钩的重点中汲取经验。
In an analysis published on Friday, the Beijing-based think tank Blue Army Open-Source Intelligence Research Institute suggested China should draw lessons from its assessment of different military domains, collaboration between military and civilian analysts and emphasis on linking technological development with operational requirements.
报告称，该项目由五角大楼首席技术官埃米尔·迈克尔和米特公司牵头，反映了华盛顿为适应商业技术发展的快速步伐、解决军事需求、研究资金与采购协调方面长期存在的挑战所作的努力。
It said the project – led by Emil Michael, the Pentagon’s chief technology officer, and the Mitre Corporation – reflected Washington’s efforts to adapt to the rapid pace of commercial technological development and address long-standing challenges in coordinating military requirements, research funding and procurement.
报告指出，该项目的主要优势在于其跨行业分析团队、快速的120天评估周期，以及在空间和网络战争等领域的关注，与此同时也兼顾更传统的军事领域。
The report said its main strengths were its cross-sector team of analysts, rapid 120-day assessment cycle and focus on areas such as space and cyber warfare alongside more traditional military domains.
报告称：“该倡议建立了一套‘需求驱动的需求、技术筛选、差距识别、制度采纳’的现代评估链，有效契合了商业技术推动军事创新的当代趋势。”
“The initiative has established a modern assessment chain of ‘demand-driven requirements, technology screening, gap identification, and institutional adoption,’ effectively aligning with the contemporary trend where commercial technology drives military innovation,” it said.
报告作者表示，中国应采取综合方法评估国防技术，超越对单一武器系统或军兵种的孤立评估。他们还呼吁中国识别联合作战中的不足，包括数据共享、通信链路、系统兼容性和后勤支持方面的薄弱环节。
The authors said China should adopt an integrated approach to assessing defence technologies, moving beyond isolated evaluations of individual weapons systems or military services. They also urged the country to identify gaps in joint operations, including weaknesses in data sharing, communications links, system compatibility and logistical support.
该报告呼吁建立一个两级评估机制，将全球技术发展的持续监测与针对特定能力差距的时限性审查相结合。
The report called for a two-tier assessment mechanism combining continuous monitoring of global technological developments with time-limited reviews of specific capability gaps.
此类审查应将军方、研究机构、国防承包商、大学和民用技术公司聚集在一起，以提高决策的质量和速度。
Such reviews should bring together the military, research institutes, defence contractors, universities and civilian technology companies to improve both the quality and speed of decision-making.
该智库表示，另一个优先事项应是建立从技术评估到作战部署的清晰路径。
Another priority should be establishing a clear pathway from technological assessment to operational deployment, the think tank said.
报告称，每项建议应明确其所针对的作战需求、现有能力差距、技术成熟度、负责实施的组织，以及测试条件和资金需求。
Each recommendation should specify the operational requirement it addressed, the existing capability gap, the technology’s maturity, the organisation responsible for implementation, as well as testing conditions and funding requirements, the report said.
报告补充称：“[中国]应建立评估、项目立项、原型制作、测试、部队验证、大规模部署以及审查与优化的完整闭环，并将学说、组织、人才、训练和支援体系的调整完全纳入将技术转化为作战能力的过程。”
“[China] should establish a complete closed loop of assessment, project initiation, prototyping, testing, force validation, large-scale deployment, and review and optimisation, and fully incorporate adjustments to doctrine, organisation, talent, training and support systems into the process of converting technology into combat capability,” it added.
然而，报告也指出，五角大楼审查中涉及已有国防合同的商业领袖，增加了利益冲突的风险。报告进一步认为，完成该报告的120天时间表将限制其效果。
However, the report also said that the involvement of business leaders who already had defence contracts in the Pentagon review raised the risk of conflicts of interest. It further argued that the 120-day timetable for completing the report would limit its effectiveness.
该美国项目由SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克、国防技术公司Anduril Industries的联合创始人帕尔默·拉基以及前众议院议长纽特·金里奇共同担任主席。
The US project is co-chaired by SpaceX boss Elon Musk, Palmer Luckey, the co-founder of defence technology firm Anduril Industries, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich.
报告指出：“快速评估无法取代详细的系统工程分析、成本评估、对抗性验证以及全生命周期风险评估。”
“Rapid assessment cannot replace detailed systems engineering analysis, cost assessments, adversarial validation and full life-cycle risk evaluations,” the report noted.
报告补充称，中国必须制定方法，以确定哪些技术可以轻松转化为作战战斗力。
It added that China must devise ways to establish what can be easily transformed into operational combat power.
该分析建议，任何可比的中国研究都应接受独立审查。还应强制披露利益冲突，且企业不应自行评估其产品或影响采购决策。
The analysis recommended that any comparable Chinese study should have independent reviews. There should also be mandatory disclosure of conflicts of interest and companies should not evaluate their own products or influence procurement decisions.
“中国应选择性地采纳‘子午线计划’的优势，同时弥补其不足，包括验证不足、范围过于宽泛以及利益冲突……以建立一个以明确需求为驱动、有充分证据支持、接受独立评估、与完整实施流程挂钩并具备有效风险控制的国防技术评估体系。” 五角大楼的审查恰逢美国计划成立一个覆盖无人机和自主作战的指挥部。
“China should selectively adopt the strengths of Project Meridian while addressing its shortcomings, including insufficient validation, an overly broad scope and conflicts of interest … to build a defence technology assessment system that is driven by clearly defined requirements, supported by robust evidence, subject to independent evaluation, linked to a complete implementation process and equipped with effective risk controls.”The Pentagon review coincides with plans to establish a US command covering unmanned and autonomous warfare.