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特朗普的拉美盟友深化与华盛顿贷款机构的联系Trump’s Latin America Allies Deepen Ties With Washington Lenders

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唐纳德·特朗普(右)与哈维尔·米莱。摄影:罗伯托·施密特/盖蒂图片社Donald Trump, right, and Javier Milei. Photographer: Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images

纳·多·罗萨里奥拉美向右转、亲市场的转变正在重塑其与唐纳德·特朗普所在的华盛顿的关系,包括来自多边贷款机构的新资金流入,这些机构历来因推行财政紧缩政策而在该地区被视为反派。

By Manuela Tobias and Jorgelina do Rosario Latin America’s rightward, market-friendly shift is reshaping its relationship with Donald Trump’s Washington, including new flows of money from the multilateral lenders historically villainized in the region for pushing fiscal austerity.

这种一致性在上周曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织-世界银行年会上表现得淋漓尽致,所谓的布雷顿森林机构官员们接受了许多由新上台、亲特朗普政府所推行的政策。他们还表示,该地区对新资金和政策指导的需求正在增长。

The alignment was on full display at the International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok over the past week, as officials from the so-called Bretton Woods institutions embraced many of the policies being pursued by new, Trump-aligned governments. They also described growing demand across the region for fresh funding and policy guidance.

“我们确实看到政策方向出现了转变,”国际货币基金组织西半球部门主管奈杰尔·查克在周五的一次简报会上表示。“我们认为我们的角色是支持该地区向更具社会责任感、更财政负责、更亲市场的政策转变。”这种影响力的扩大与拉美政治版图的戏剧性重塑同步发生,包括一些更紧密地与特朗普结盟的领导人崛起。

“We do see a shift in policy direction,” Nigel Chalk, director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, said at a briefing Friday. “We see our role as supporting that shift toward more socially conscious, more fiscally responsible, more market-oriented policies in the region.”The growing footprint coincides with a dramatic redrawing of Latin America’s political map, including leaders aligned more closely with Trump.

根据查克的说法,国际货币基金组织在美洲目前有10个活跃的贷款项目,而其全球活跃贷款项目总数为35个。其中包括与智利的预防性信贷安排、对玻利维亚的新融资,以及与哥伦比亚就新项目进行的活跃谈判——这些国家最近都选出了亲特朗普的总统。基金组织还在深受MAGA理念影响的萨尔瓦多和阿根廷开展工作,而基金组织和世界银行也正在重新与受华盛顿控制的委内瑞拉接触。

The IMF has 10 active programs in the Americas, according to Chalk, out of a total of 35 active lending programs. That includes a precautionary line with Chile and fresh financing for Bolivia, as well as active talks with Colombia for a new program — all of which recently elected Trump-backed presidents. It’s also active in MAGA-inspired El Salvador and Argentina, while both the fund and the bank are reenaged with Washington-controlled Venezuela.

Nigel Chalk

查克及其世界银行对应者苏萨纳·科尔代罗·格拉表示,政治并未在这些讨论中发挥作用,他们本周也刻意将特朗普排除在谈判之外。

To be sure, Chalk and and his counterpart at the World Bank, Susana Cordeiro Guerra, said politics doesn’t play a role, and kept Trump out of the discussions this week.

“银行在我们所能做到的范围内,对改革的政治持中立态度,”科尔代罗·格拉说。与新领导人加强互动的原因是,“与就业和增长议程的重叠非常大。”虽然许多世界领导人与特朗普的关系更多是个人化和交易性的,而非意识形态上的,但他的共和党传统上支持国际货币基金组织(即华盛顿共识)的财政纪律和亲市场政策,并且在移民和安全问题上,与全球右翼政党更为一致。

“The bank is agnostic, as much as we can, to the politics of reform,” Cordeiro Guerra said. The increased engagement with the new leaders is because “the overlap with the jobs and growth agenda is tremendous.”While many world leaders’ relationships with Trump are more personal and transactional than ideological, his Republican party has traditionally backed the fiscal discipline and market-friendly policies of the IMF, known as the Washington Consensus, and is more aligned with right-wing parties globally on issues of immigration and security.

阿根廷的哈维尔·米莱已经成为该地区保守派的旗帜人物,这位特朗普的盟友曾举起电锯作为其紧缩计划的象征。

Argentina’s Javier Milei had already emerged the region’s conservative standard-bearer, with the Trump ally yielding a chainsaw as the symbol of his austerity program.

去年,尽管部分基金董事会成员有所担忧,阿根廷仍从国际货币基金组织获得了200亿美元的提振——其中包括一次性预拨的120亿美元。本周,国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃与经济部长路易斯·卡普托同台参加小组讨论时,将阿根廷树立为榜样。

The country got a $20 billion boost from the IMF last year — despite concerns by some fund board members — with an extraordinary $12 billion disbursed up front. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, sharing the stage on a panel this week with Economy Minister Luis Caputo, held up Argentina as an example to follow.

智利的亲市场改革者何塞·安东尼奥·卡斯特今年早些时候当选总统,并在8月从基金获得了更新的灵活信贷额度。

Chile’s market-friendly reformist José Antonio Kast became president earlier this year and received a renewed flexible credit line from the fund in August.

哥伦比亚总统阿贝拉尔多·德拉·埃斯普里耶拉于8月就职,目前正就一项新计划进行谈判,以应对其前任留下的财政困境。

Colombia’s President Abelardo de la Espriella took office in August and is now in talks for a new program to help deal with the fiscal ruin left behind by his predecessor.

玻利维亚的罗德里戈·帕斯去年终结了近20年的社会党执政,今月初为该国争取到了19亿美元的援助计划,因为该国正面临四十年来最深的经济危机。他的政府已着手取消燃油补贴,并推进其他旨在恢复公共财政的措施,以应对多年天然气收入下降和美元短缺的问题。

And Bolivia’s Rodrigo Paz, ending almost 20 years of socialist rule last year, secured a $1.9 billion program earlier this month as the country faces its deepest economic crisis in four decades. His administration has moved to unwind fuel subsidies and pursue other measures aimed at restoring the public finances after years of dwindling natural-gas revenue and dollar shortages.

“尽管面临国际背景,我们地区正迎来新的机遇窗口,现在正是我们承担责任、审视如何把握这些机遇的时候,”玻利维亚财政部长克里斯蒂安·安德烈斯·莫拉莱斯本周在一次采访中表示。

“In spite of the international context, new windows of opportunity are opening up for our region and it’s the moment to be responsible in seeing how we take them,” Bolivia’s Finance Minister Christian Andrés Morales said in an interview this week.

继承了财政压力、增长疲软或金融缓冲耗尽的政府,正越来越多地向总部设在华盛顿的机构寻求资金,同时推行这些贷款方长期倡导的政策。过去,左翼政府曾将基金及其他多边机构作为财政紧缩的替罪羊。

Governments that inherited fiscal strains, weak growth or depleted financial buffers are increasingly turning to Washington-based institutions for money while pursuing policies those lenders have long advocated. Leftist governments in the past used the fund and other multilaterals as scapegoats for fiscal restraint.

“我感觉到,该地区对基金的角色也有更多支持,而且我认为,对多边主义更广泛意义上的角色也有更多支持,”查尔克补充道。基金的姊妹机构世界银行集团也在发挥更大作用。

“I get the sense there’s also much more support in the region, both for the role of the fund, but also I think for the role of multilateralism more broadly,” Chalk added. The IMF’s sister institution, the World Bank Group, is also more involved.

“我们希望奖励改革者,”拉美地区负责人科尔代罗·格拉在一次采访中表示。“这关乎艰苦工作的开展,以及真正落实财政紧缩和宏观经济稳定的改革。”科尔代罗·格拉指出,巴拉圭、多米尼加共和国、萨尔瓦多和巴拿马是政府推动亲私营部门改革、年增长率超过4%的典型例子。

“We want to reward the reformers,” Latin America chief Cordeiro Guerra said in an interview. “It’s about doing the hard work and actually implementing reforms about fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability.”Cordeiro Guerra pointed to Paraguay, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Panama as examples of governments pursuing private-sector-friendly reforms while expanding at annual rates above 4%.

世界银行可能向委内瑞拉提供最高50亿美元的贷款,该国自2005年以来尚未从该行获得贷款,前提是该国先清偿对其他多边贷款方的欠款。

The bank could loan Venezuela — which hadn’t received a loan from the bank since 2005 — as much as $5 billion over the next two years, pending the country clearing arrears with other multilateral lenders.

今年早些时候,委内瑞拉恢复了与总部设在华盛顿的贷款方的正式关系——此前美国逮捕了总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗——而本周标志着委内瑞拉官员时隔二十多年首次参加IMF-世界银行会议,包括经济副总统卡利克斯托·奥尔特加在一场活动中与查尔克同台发言。

The country resumed formal relations with the Washington-based lender earlier this year — after the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro — and this week marked the first time in over two decades that Venezuelan officials were part of the IMF-WB meetings, including Economy Vice President Calixto Ortega sharing the stage at one event with Chalk.

该行还在为哥伦比亚准备一揽子贷款方案,为巴巴多斯准备另一套方案,同时面临超过250亿美元债务到期的阿根廷也在考虑之列。这些贷款均须经执行董事会批准,旨在动用该行的私营和公共部门资源。

The bank is also preparing a comprehensive lending package for Colombia, another for Barbados, and Argentina, which is facing more than $25 billion in debt maturities. The loans are all subject to executive board approval, and aim to tap the bank’s private and public arms.

哥伦比亚的谈判包括用于提升支出效率、能源和卫生的三笔独立贷款,科尔代罗·格拉未透露具体规模。该行计划在巴巴多斯采用类似的融资结构,以支持支付监管和数字政府支付。

Colombia’s talks include three separate loans for spending efficiency, energy and health, Cordeiro Guerra said, without disclosing their size. The bank plans to use a similar financing structure in Barbados to support payment regulation and digital government payments.

部分融资将沿用已在阿根廷实施的模式,当时世界银行支持了一笔最高达20亿美元的商业贷款。该结构利用贷款方的担保降低私人债权人的风险,从而帮助政府以更优条件获得融资。

Some of that financing will follow a model already deployed in Argentina, where the World Bank backed a commercial loan of as much as $2 billion. The structure uses the lender’s guarantees to lower risks for private creditors, which helps governments obtain financing on better terms.

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