台币因全球对人工智能贸易的紧张情绪而走弱，掩盖了该岛经济韧性的基础，这有助于推动该货币在年底前反弹，分析师称。
The Taiwan dollar’s weakness led by global jitters over the artificial intelligence trade is masking the island’s underlying economic resilience that favors the currency’s rally into year-end, analysts say.
尽管近期该货币面临强烈压力，花旗银行和荷兰银行（ING Bank NV）预计其将回升至31.60和31.50，分别意味着约2%的升值。
While the currency has come under intense pressure in recent sessions, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and ING Bank NV see it rebounding to 31.60 and 31.50, respectively, implying an appreciation about 2% from current levels.
这些预测的基础是台湾强劲的经济增长和当前账户顺差。尽管对高估人工智能股估值的疑虑持续推动资金外流，短期内压制汇率，但分析师预计基本贸易支持将在未来数月占上风。
Underscoring those projections are Taiwan’s robust economic growth and current account surplus. Even though doubts over lofty AI stock valuations continue to drive outflows and weigh on the exchange rate in the short term, analysts expect fundamental trade support to prevail over the coming months.
“记录高额贸易顺差和人工智能相关出口持续为台币提供底层支撑，”MUFG银行亚太全球市场研究部负责人林立（Lin Li）表示。“但外资组合流出、境外投资以及台币与美元的大额收益率差距正在产生抵消美元需求的作用。”林立预计台币将在年底前升值至31.8台币/美元，并在2027年6月底前进一步升至30.9台币/美元。
“Record trade surpluses and AI-related exports continue to generate underlying Taiwan dollar support,” said Lin Li, head of global markets research for Asia at MUFG Bank Ltd. “But foreign portfolio outflows, outward investment and the large US dollar-Taiwan dollar yield differential is creating offsetting US dollar demand at the moment.”Li sees the Taiwan dollar appreciating to 31.8 per greenback by year-end before gaining further to 30.9 by the end of June 2027.
台湾当前账户顺差在2025年底达到近700亿美元的创纪录高位，得益于前所未有的先进芯片全球需求，随后在近期有所回落。与此同时，官员将该岛全年经济增长预测上调至10%以上，使该科技中心有望自2010年以来实现首次双位数扩张。
Taiwan’s current account surplus reached a record high of nearly $70 billion in late 2025, buoyed by unprecedented global demand for advanced chips, before narrowing moderately in recent months. At the same time, officials raised the island’s full-year economic growth forecast to more than 10%, putting the technology hub on track for its first double-digit expansion since 2010.
然而，这些内在优势正与外资大规模流出的浪潮相冲突。外资于周四抛售新台币3026亿元（93亿美元）的台湾股票，创下单日最大流出纪录，推动台币接近其当年至今低点32.50台币/美元。
Still, those underlying strengths are clashing with a wave of foreign capital flight. Foreign investors sold NT$302.6 billion ($9.3 billion) of Taiwan equities on Thursday, the largest daily outflow on record, pushing the Taiwan dollar to within striking distance of its year-to-date low of around 32.50 per US dollar.
分析师并不认为该水平是政策制定者划下的僵硬红线，但他们正密切关注它，视其为中国中华民国中央银行（CBC）的一个相对舒适区。
While analysts do not view that level as a rigid line in the sand for policymakers, they are watching it closely as a comfortable zone for the monetary authority known as the Central Bank of the Republic of China or CBC.
“CBC将尝试保持新台币相对区间运行，”英银大中华区首席经济师林肯·索恩（Lynn Song）表示。“我认为这不是一条需要捍卫的僵硬红线，但从今年迄今为止来看，31.5-32.5区间对他们来说已显得舒适。”
“The CBC will attempt to keep the Taiwan dollar relatively rangebound,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank. “I don’t think it is a firm line in the sand to defend, but it does seem that 31.5-32.5 range has been comfortable for them so far this year.”
对于州街银行与信托公司（State Street Bank & Trust Co.）亚太区宏观策略师郑九（Jiuk Choi）而言，CBC更可能关注缓解货币波动，而非锁定特定水平。“不过，我们认为32.4-32.5区间是美元兑新台币的重要关口，因为它标志着2026年的年内最高点，”他表示。
For Jiuk Choi, Asia Pacific macro strategist at State Street Bank & Trust Co., the CBC is more likely to focus on easing currency volatility than target a certain level. “That said, we think the 32.4-32.5 range is an important level for US dollar-Taiwan dollar, as it marks the year-to-date high in 2026,” he said.
除技术行业担忧之外，高位原油价格也对新台币形成进一步压力，因为该岛屿是能源进口国。此外，美国10年期国债收益率约比同期台湾主权债券高出约300个基点，这种有吸引力的收益率差距持续推动美元走强，牺牲了区域货币。
Beyond concerns over the tech sector, elevated crude prices are adding further pressure on the Taiwan dollar as the island is an energy importer. Moreover, US 10-year Treasury yields sit roughly 300 basis points above similar-tenor Taiwanese sovereign bonds, offering a compelling yield pickup that continues to fuel broad US dollar strength at the expense of regional currencies.
“短期风险包括外资股流出和强势美元，这是鹰派美联储的背景下，”LGT私人银行外汇利率专家张丽（Trang Le）指出。
“Near-term headwinds include foreign equity outflows and a strong US dollar amid a hawkish Federal Reserve,” said Trang Le, foreign exchange and rates specialist, LGT Private Banking.
“即便如此，强劲的出口动能、稳健的外部平衡以及人工智能驱动的半导体周期，使得中长期偏向新台币升值。我们预计波动将取代持续走弱，成为主导主题，”她表示。
“Even so, strong export momentum, robust external balances and the AI-driven semiconductor cycle leave the medium-term bias tilted toward Taiwan dollar appreciation. We expect volatility rather than sustained weakness to be the dominant theme,” she said.
货币交易员正在关注大型半导体制造商的业绩报告，策略师们认为这是推动跨境股票流动和货币波动的下一个关键因素。台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）于周四公布了优于预期的收入前景，但未能完全平息市场对人工智能全面扩张的担忧。
Currency traders are watching earnings reports from major semiconductor manufacturers, which strategists view as the next key catalyst for cross-border equity flows and currency volatility. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered a better-than-expected revenue outlook on Thursday, yet it failed to fully calm market worries over the broader AI buildout.
“即将到来的全球科技业绩可能会增加新台币汇率波动，特别是考虑到市场对人工智能相关资本支出、盈利能力以及中国竞争的高度敏感度，”来自州街银行与信托公司（State Street Bank & Trust）的Choi表示。
“Upcoming global tech earnings could increase Taiwan dollar volatility, particularly given the market’s heightened sensitivity to AI-related capex, profitability, and Chinese competition,” said Choi from State Street Bank & Trust.
他表示，短期内因人工智能交易存疑，新台币可能出现弱势，但预计年底前将回升至1美元兑31.80新台币。他补充说：“我们认为新台币是相对于美元走强的优秀避险货币，因为资本和经常账户流动仍然强劲，且新台币在新兴市场中波动性极低。”
He sees near-term room for Taiwan dollar weakness on AI trade doubts, but expects a recovery to 31.80 per US dollar by year-end. “We see Taiwan dollar is one of the best hedge currencies to US dollar strength as capital and current account flows remain strong while it has one of the lowest volatilities across emerging markets,” he said.