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洪水考验胡志明市的增长雄心Flooding tests Ho Chi Minh City's growth ambitions

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胡志明市的通勤者常常要面对倾盆大雨,大雨导致航班延误,也让人们无法上班。(摄影:连黄)Ho Chi Minh City commuters often battle sheets of falling rain, which have delayed flights and prevented people from getting to work. (Photo by Lien Hoang)

胡志明市——潘多拉本月在胡志明市开设了一家工厂,将雇佣7000名工人。作为全球最大的珠宝商,潘多拉在越南商业之都已遭遇一个熟悉的挑战:洪水。

HO CHI MINH CITY -- Pandora opened a factory in Ho Chi Minh City this month that will employ 7,000 workers, and already the world's biggest jeweler has encountered a familiar challenge in Vietnam's commercial capital: floods. "Craftsmen and craftswomen, they have issues getting into the facilities because they come with bicycles, with motorbikes, and the access is difficult," Pandora CEO Berta de Pablos-Barbier told Nikkei, citing heavy rains and gale-force winds across the city.

“工匠们进入设施时遇到了困难,因为他们骑自行车或摩托车前来,而通道不畅,”潘多拉首席执行官贝尔塔·德·帕布洛斯-巴比尔对《日经》表示,她指出全城正遭遇暴雨和狂风。但她补充说:“没有人受伤”,且生产仍在继续。

"But nobody's been harmed" and operations continue, she said. The monsoon season has brought severe flooding to parts of Ho Chi Minh City, disrupting traffic, delaying flights at the country's busiest airport and underscoring growing concerns about the cost of extreme weather in one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing manufacturing hubs.

季风季节已导致胡志明市部分地区出现严重洪水,扰乱交通,导致该国最繁忙的机场航班延误,凸显了人们对东南亚增长最快的制造业中心之一极端天气成本的日益担忧。

Officials in the city of 14 million people have blamed a combination of intense rainfall, high tides, land subsidence, aging drainage systems and rapid urban development.

这座拥有1400万人口的城市官员将洪水归因于强降雨、高潮、土地下沉、老旧排水系统和快速城市发展的共同作用。10月5日,当局宣布计划在2026年至2030年间投资142万亿越南盾(约54.8亿美元),用于升级下水道、运河、蓄水设施及其他防洪基础设施。

On Oct. 5, authorities announced plans to invest 142 trillion dong ($5.48 billion) between 2026 and 2030 to upgrade sewers, canals, water storage facilities and other flood-control infrastructure. The urgency is reflected in estimates of future damage.

这种紧迫性也体现在未来损害的估计上。麦肯锡在2020年预测,洪水可能导致胡志明市约3亿美元的基础设施损失和15亿美元的房地产损失;若城市在缺乏足够缓解措施的情况下继续扩张,这些损失到2050年可能增加三倍。

McKinsey projected in 2020 that flooding could cause about $300 million in infrastructure damage and $1.5 billion in real estate losses in Ho Chi Minh City, with costs potentially tripling by 2050 if the city continues to expand without adequate mitigation measures. This year's flooding has highlighted those risks.

今年的洪水凸显了这些风险。该城市坐落在西贡河畔,原设计为能够应对三小时内降雨86毫米的情况,但根据政府数据,最近的暴雨在不到一小时内就超过了100毫米。这些压力已经在全城显现。

The city, built along the Saigon River, was designed to handle 86 millimeters of rain over a three-hour period, but recent downpours have exceeded 100 mm in less than an hour, according to the government. Those pressures are already being felt across the city. Near Tan Son Nhat International Airport, flooded streets have slowed traffic and thunderstorms have interrupted flights.

在胡志明市附近的新山一国际机场,街道被洪水淹没导致交通放缓,雷暴天气导致航班中断。根据越南航空商业协会杂志的报道,该国最繁忙的航空门户因极端天气出现了数十起航班延误,至少有一架航班被迫改飞至湄公河三角洲的芽庄。

Vietnam's busiest air gateway has seen dozens of delays due to extreme weather, with at least one flight diverted to Can Tho in the Mekong Delta, according to the Vietnam Aviation Business Association magazine. The growing disruption reflects a broader challenge facing a city whose infrastructure is struggling to keep pace with more intense rainfall and rapid development.

日益加剧的干扰反映出一个更广泛的挑战:这座城市的基础设施正努力跟上更强降雨和快速发展的步伐。由阮智胜大学领导的一项研究发现,在1980年至2017年间,该市64%的监测站记录到年降雨量呈上升趋势。

A study led by Nguyen Tat Thanh University found that 64% of the city's monitoring stations recorded upward trends in annual rainfall between 1980 and 2017. Rising sea levels, rapid urbanization and land subsidence have compounded the problem.

海平面上升、快速城市化和土地下沉叠加了这一问题。虽然洪水长期以来一直是胡志明市生活的一部分,但官员和研究人员警告称,随着越南商业之都继续扩张,经济损失可能会变得显著更大。

While flooding has long been a feature of life in Ho Chi Minh City, officials and researchers warn that the economic costs could become significantly greater as Vietnam's commercial capital continues to expand. Losses would extend beyond damaged buildings, affecting transport, communications and other essential services.

损失不仅限于建筑物受损,还将影响交通、通信和其他基本服务。对许多居民而言,这些后果已经变得越来越难以忽视。

For many residents, the consequences are already becoming harder to ignore. Floodwater has submerged homes and streets across the city in recent weeks.

最近几周,洪水已经淹没了胡志明市各地的住宅和街道。根据国营媒体的报道,居民被迫在桌子上睡觉,而救护车在交通拥堵的道路上行驶竟需一个小时。

Residents have been forced to sleep on tables, while ambulances have taken an hour to navigate traffic-clogged roads, according to state media. Among those affected is Pham Thao, a 31-year-old factory worker who depends on her motorbike to get around the city.

受影响者之一是31岁的工厂工人范茂,她依赖摩托车在城市中出行。暴雨洪水在雨季已成为反复出现的危险。

Flash floods have become a recurring hazard during the rainy season. Vietnam's commercial capital of Ho Chi Minh City faces a confluence of typhoons, high tides, sinking land and outdated pipes.

胡志明市——越南的商业之都——正面临台风、高潮、土地下沉和老旧管道叠加的挑战。

"Sometimes the bike breaks down," Thao told Nikkei Asia, sitting next to an alley still covered in the previous night's floodwaters.

“有时候自行车会坏掉,”陶在接受《日经亚洲》采访时说,她坐在一条仍被前一晚洪水覆盖的小巷旁边。“然后你只能把自行车推着走过水里。”天气的不可预测性加剧了这种中断。天空可能一会儿晴朗,下一刻就倾盆大雨。地方媒体被市政当局引用,报道称这种反复无常的天气状况导致呼吸道和其他疾病增加。

"Then you have to walk it through the water." The weather's unpredictability has compounded the disruption. The sky can be clear one moment before torrential rain arrives the next. Local media, cited by municipal authorities, report that the erratic conditions have contributed to a rise in respiratory and other illnesses. From taxi drivers to street vendors, the ability to earn income often depends on the vagaries of the weather on any given day.

从出租车司机到街头小贩,赚取收入的能力往往取决于当天天气的多变。

Tran Que, 41, sells sugar-cane juice on the sidewalk.

陈桂,41岁,在人行道上卖甘蔗汁。当暴雨来临时,她会在摊位上方支起大伞,但如果天色特别暗,她会在道路变得无法通行之前回家。

When storms roll in, she props up large umbrellas over her stall, but if it looks especially dark, she heads home before roads become impassable. "I am used to the rain living here," she said, eating breakfast beside her cart.

“我已经习惯了在这里生活的雨天,”她说,她坐在推车旁吃早餐。“但当真的很大的暴雨伴随着狂风时,我会害怕。所以我会待在家里。”

"But when it's a really big storm and windy I am afraid. So I stay home."