北约最高军事指挥官之一有一个挥之不去的噩梦，而且可能不是你想的那样。
There's a nightmare that keeps one of NATO's most senior military commanders up at night and it's not what you might think.
这并不是指俄罗斯坦克驶入波罗的海国家或波兰的想法，也不是指北约在北极发生突然的军事对抗。
It isn't the idea of Russian tanks rolling into the Baltic states or Poland. Nor is it a sudden military confrontation in the Arctic.
让北约盟军转型最高司令皮埃尔·旺迪埃夜不能寐的场景，是这个西方军事同盟被打得措手不及，无法跟上现代战场上技术创新步伐的想法。
The scenario that keeps NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Pierre Vandier up at night is the notion of the Western military alliance being caught unprepared and unable to keep up with the pace of technological innovation that's happening on the modern battlefield.
法国海军上将旺迪埃接受加拿大广播公司新闻专访时表示：“迟到真的是我的噩梦。”
"Being late is really my nightmare," Vandier, a French admiral, told CBC News in an exclusive interview.
旺迪埃说：“当我看到人们在闲聊、延误一些重要决策、不投入资金、使用某种……过时的流程时，这就会让我夜不能寐。”旺迪埃最近低调访问渥太华期间，会见了加拿大国防参谋长珍妮·卡里尼昂将军和其他高级防务领导人，近距离了解加拿大的部分国防创新计划。
"When I see people chatting, delaying some important decisions, not committing the money, using some … old-fashioned process, then it keeps me [up] at night." Vandier met Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan and other high-ranking defence leaders for an up-close look at some of Canada's defence innovation plans during his recent low-key trip to Ottawa.
他关于跟上步伐的警告，对于这个拥有32个成员国的同盟来说正值一个尤其令人不安的时刻。
His warning about keeping pace comes at a particularly uncomfortable moment for the 32-member alliance.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争即将迎来第五个年头。莫斯科被指控在欧洲北约东翼升级破坏活动、网络攻击和无人机侵扰行动。西方各国政府正忙于重建在三十多年前冷战结束后被允许缩减的军事能力和国防工业生产线。
Russia's war against Ukraine is approaching its fifth anniversary. Moscow has been accused of escalating a campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks and drone incursions in Europe along NATO's eastern flank. And Western governments are scrambling to rebuild military capabilities and defence industrial production lines that were allowed to shrink following the end of the Cold War more than three decades ago.
旺迪埃认为，危险在于该同盟正试图利用从昨天继承下来的机构、采购系统和假设，来为明天的战争做准备。
The danger, according to Vandier, is that the alliance is trying to prepare for tomorrow's war using institutions, procurement systems and assumptions inherited from yesterday.
“我们曾以为时间是我们的朋友，”他说。“现在时间不是我们的朋友了。它成了敌人的朋友。议程建立在对方那边。”在乌克兰四年艰苦作战期间，俄罗斯遭受了巨大的人员伤亡。根据英国国防部的数据，截至9月中旬，俄罗斯军队在乌克兰战争中已遭受130万人员伤亡，其中包括超过50万人死亡。
"We thought that time was our friend," he said. "Now time is not our friend. It's the enemy's friend. The agenda is built on the other side." During four years of grinding combat in Ukraine, Russia has suffered an enormous number of casualties. According to the British Ministry of Defence, as of mid-September, the Russian military has suffered 1.3 million casualties in the Ukraine war, including over 500,000 dead.
北约当前安全困境的核心存在一个悖论。尽管遭受了毁灭性伤亡并损失了大量装备，但四年前闯入乌克兰的俄罗斯军队如今已不是战场上的那支军队。
And there is a paradox at the heart of NATO's current security dilemma. While there have been devastating casualties and an enormous amount of equipment lost, the Russian Army that stumbled into Ukraine four years ago is not the same one on the battlefield today.
范迪耶认为，莫斯科已经变得更具创新性、更具适应性，并且在某些领域更加危险。“敌人不再是2022年时的那个敌人，”他说。“他们在学习，他们在适应。”
Vandier argued that Moscow has become more innovative, more adaptable and, in certain areas, more dangerous. "The enemy is not the same as the one we had in 2022," he said. "They learn, they adapt."
他特别指出，俄罗斯的无人机技术正在演变，包括速度更快的喷气式动力攻击无人机，这使乌克兰防御城市和关键基础设施的能力变得更加复杂。
He pointed specifically to Russia's evolving drone technology, including faster jet-powered attack drones that have complicated Ukraine's ability to defend its cities and critical infrastructure.
根据范迪耶的说法，更先进推进系统的引入显著降低了某些乌克兰无人机拦截方法的有效性。
According to Vandier, the introduction of more advanced propulsion systems has significantly reduced the effectiveness of some Ukrainian drone-interception methods.
他估计，针对某些俄罗斯无人机的拦截成功率已从今年早些时候的大约90%下降到如今技术演变后的大约50%。乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基在9月底时将拦截率定为大约55%。
He estimated that interception success rates against certain Russian drones have fallen from approximately 90 per cent earlier this year to roughly 50 per cent as the technology has evolved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at the end of September, pegged the interception rate at about 55 per cent.
过去一年，大量研究成果发表，这些研究挑战了这样一个假设：即俄罗斯在乌克兰遭受的巨大损失已经削弱了其军事实力，使其能力下降或无法威胁北约。
There's been a significant body of research published over the past year which challenges the assumption that Russia's enormous losses in Ukraine have left its military weaker, less capable or unable to threaten NATO.
西方军事分析人士越来越多地描述俄罗斯军队在战火中学会适应、在作战中再生编队、吸收技术创新并能够在巨大伤亡下维持行动。分析：北约如何在波罗的海上空为可能的与俄罗斯对抗做准备分析：普京似乎正在盯着北约。问题是，他会真的发动攻击吗？
Western military analysts increasingly describe a Russian military that has learned to adapt under fire, regenerate formations while fighting, absorb technological innovation and sustain operations despite staggering casualties. AnalysisHow NATO is prepping in the Baltic skies for a possible confrontation with Russia AnalysisPutin appears to be eyeing NATO. The question is, will he actually attack?
“俄罗斯军事机构更看重忠诚而非能力，”华盛顿战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）去年七月撰写的一份研究报告如是说。该报告认为，俄罗斯对中国、伊朗和朝鲜的军事援助依赖程度日益增加。
"Russian military institutions reward loyalty over competence," said a study written last July by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, which argued Russia has become increasingly dependent on Chinese, Iranian and North Korean military assistance.
报告作者认为，俄罗斯军队能够吸收新技术，但缺乏充分有效利用这些技术的能力。
The authors argue that Russia's military can absorb new technology without developing the capacity to exploit it fully and effectively.
去年由英国国际战略研究所（IISS）撰写的一份评估报告则更为直白。报告指出，莫斯科正在重建装备库存、扩编部队，并在北约领土附近重组军队。
An assessment written last year by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based in the United Kingdom, was even more stark. It pointed to how Moscow is rebuilding equipment inventories, expanding units and reorganizing forces near NATO territory.
该智库报告称，俄罗斯可能比预期更早恢复其战前陆军装备力量的重要组成部分，尽管新编部队可能仍然人员不足。
The think-tank's report said that Russia may restore important elements of its prewar ground-force equipment strength sooner than expected, although newly formed units could remain undermanned.
IISS报告还指出，俄罗斯军队在装备短缺方面的问题有望在2026年底或2027年初得到缓解。然而，俄罗斯陆军的全面装备和扩编可能要持续到2030年或2035年。“这是一个变化极快的环境，”范迪尔说道。
The IISS report also suggested that equipment shortages throughout the Russian military could potentially be resolved by late 2026 or early 2027. However, the full equipping and expansion of Russian ground forces could take until 2030 or 2035. "It's a very fast-evolving environment," Vandier said.
俄罗斯具备生产大量相对廉价的无人机和导弹的能力。而这暴露了西方国防工业的局限——其设计初衷是生产少量高度复杂的武器。范迪尔认为，北约低估了这一挑战的规模。
Russia has the ability to produce enormous quantities of relatively inexpensive drones and missiles. And that has exposed the limitations of Western defence industries designed to manufacture smaller numbers of highly sophisticated weapons. Vandier believes the alliance has underestimated the scale of the challenge.
“战争只是一场持续几周的危机的这种想法，已经没有人能够再下赌注了，”他说。
"The idea that the war is just a crisis of a few weeks is something that nobody can bet on anymore," he said.
他指出，乌克兰战场上正在使用数量庞大的无人机和导弹，这证明北约不仅必须重新思考采购什么，还要重新思考以多快的速度补充其军火库。范迪尔表示，问题不单单是武器短缺，而是工业产能的短缺。
He pointed to the enormous numbers of drones and missiles being employed in Ukraine as evidence that NATO must rethink not only what it buys, but how quickly it can replenish its arsenals. The problem, Vandier said, is not simply a shortage of weapons. It is a shortage of industrial capacity.
西方经济体花费了几十年时间将制造业和关键供应链转移到海外，导致国防工业依赖于在长期冲突期间可能无法轻易获得的材料和零部件。
Western economies have spent decades moving manufacturing and critical supply chains overseas, leaving defence industries dependent on materials and components that may not be readily available during a prolonged conflict.
范迪尔对北约合并后的经济实力会自动转化为对俄罗斯的压倒性工业优势这一说法提出了质疑。“我不同意我们拥有良好的工业纵深这一观点，”他说。
Vandier challenged the suggestion that NATO's combined economic strength automatically translates into an overwhelming industrial advantage over Russia. "I disagree with the point where we have a good industrial depth," he said.
“现在的挑战是大量且迅速地生产我们能够生产的东西，而不仅仅是生产那些极其精良且数量有限的装备。”这意味着深远的影响。在与俄罗斯的长期冲突中，西方将很快耗尽装备和弹药。
"The challenge now is to produce what we can produce in mass and rapidly, and not only what we have on a very exquisite and limited quantities." The implication of that is significant. In a prolonged conflict with Russia, the West would quickly run out of equipment and ammunition.
美国和以色列对伊朗的战争引发了大量关于高端武器系统短缺的公开报道。
The U.S-Israeli war with Iran has seen a number of published reports about the scarcity of high-end weapons systems.
对加拿大而言，范迪尔的评估正值联邦政府着手空前扩大国防开支之际。
For Canada, Vandier's assessment comes as the federal government embarks on an unprecedented expansion of defence spending.
在经历了数十年相对有限的投资之后，渥太华已投入数十亿美元的追加资金，用于现代化加拿大武装部队并重建国家的国防工业基础。范迪尔表示，他对这种规模的变化印象深刻。
After decades of relatively limited investment, Ottawa has committed billions of additional dollars to modernizing the Canadian Armed Forces and rebuilding the country's defence industrial base. Vandier said he has been struck by the scale of the change.
“看到这个国家过去将有限的资金集中用于北美防空司令部（NORAD），而现在正将目光投向整个北约[责任区]，这是非常令人印象深刻的，”范迪尔说。
"It's very impressive to see how this country, which has spent a limited amount of money focused on NORAD, now is opening eyes on all the NATO [area of responsibility]," Vandier said.