自1949年成立以来，北约一直是历史上最成功、持续时间最长的军事联盟。如今，这种情况正在改变——而且是出于错误的原因。在其77年历史中，北约唯一一次不仅受到外部对手的威胁，而且令人恐惧的是，还受到来自内部的威胁。而这种新威胁非常真实。唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府对北约提出了几项明确无误的要求。
Since its creation in 1949, NATO has been history's most successful and longest lasting military alliance. Now, that is changing — and for the wrong reasons. For the only time in its 77 years, NATO is threatened not only by an external adversary but, frighteningly, from within. And this new threat is very real. President Donald Trump’s administration has made several unambiguously clear demands on NATO.
首先，欧洲成员国必须对欧洲防务承担更大的责任，甚至几乎是全部责任。这将使美国能够专注于其首要优先事项，即国土防御以及阻止中国对台湾的入侵或攻击。五角大楼还在敲定从欧洲重新部署美军的计划，以加强另外两项行动。下一任欧洲盟军最高司令有可能首次由欧洲人而非美国人担任。如果出现这种情况，北约第五条保障——“对一个北约成员国的武装攻击应被视为对所有成员国的攻击”——与美国核威慑之间的关联可能会被切断。
First, European members must assume greater, if not virtually all, responsibility for the defense of Europe. This will allow the U.S. to focus on its main priorities of homeland defense and averting a Chinese invasion or assault on Taiwan. The Pentagon is also finalizing plans for redeployment of U.S. troops from Europe to reinforce the other two actions. It is possible that for the first time the next Supreme Allied Commander Europe will be a European, not an American. If that occurs, the link with NATO’s Article Five guarantee that “an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against all members,” and the U.S. nuclear deterrent, could be severed.
与此同时，北约欧洲成员国日益警惕，并且确实担心俄罗斯可能对该联盟发动军事进攻。这种恐惧可能会被提出来，以拖延美军可能的撤军。一些人认为，俄罗斯可能攻击波罗的海国家，并夺取波罗的海中的一座岛屿或挪威的斯瓦尔巴群岛，作为既成事实来破坏联盟团结。然后，俄罗斯将利用其唯一的军事优势——压倒性的核武器优势——来阻止北约作出任何回应。
Concurrently, European NATO members are increasingly wary and indeed worried that Russia may launch a military offensive against the alliance. This fear may be voiced to delay possible U.S. troop withdrawals. Some argue Russia could attack the Baltic States and seize an island in the Baltic or Norway’s Svalbard as a fait accompli to break alliance cohesion. Then, Russia would use its sole military advantage of overwhelming nuclear weapons superiority to prevent any NATO response.
与此同时，俄罗斯破坏和分裂联盟的“积极措施”仍在继续，包括网络攻击、宣传、破坏活动、无人机和飞机侵犯领空以及威胁使用核武器。鉴于联盟未来面临这一双重挑战，北约能够而且应该做些什么来保持其相关性？
Meanwhile, Russian “active measures” to disrupt and divide the alliance continue with cyber strikes, propaganda, sabotage, drone and aircraft territorial violations and threats to use nuclear weapons. Given this dual challenge to the alliance’s future, what can and should NATO do to maintain its relevance?
除了立即采取反制措施应对俄罗斯的积极措施外，要防止联盟可能出现致命裂痕，只有一个可行选项：一项将无人空中、地面和海上无人机整合到北约防御装备中的计划。“无人”一词略有误导性。人们仍然需要维持、修理、维护和部署无人系统。伊朗和乌克兰已经展示了廉价无人机的大规模使用如何改变战争形态。一个相对弱小的国家能够与强大得多的俄罗斯敌人作战近五年并打成僵局，这归功于乌克兰人的勇气、决心以及对无人机战争的运用。
In addition to taking immediate counters to Russian active measures, only one viable option exists to prevent a possible fatal rift in the alliance: a program to integrate unmanned air, land and sea drones to NATO’s defense kits. Unmanned is a bit misleading. People will still need to sustain, repair, maintain and deploy unmanned systems. Iran and Ukraine have shown how war can be transformed by cheap drones in large numbers. That a relatively tiny state could fight a far more powerful Russian enemy to a standstill for nearly five years is a tribute to Ukrainian courage, resolve and employment of drone-based war.
北约必须尽快效仿，但要采用新战略，利用无人资源所提供的作战和成本效益上的不对称优势。北约最高盟军指挥官、美国空军上将阿莱克修斯·G·格林凯维奇上周在波兰阐述了他的胜利理论。在一次尚未公开的讲话中，这位将军呼吁制定一项战略，以“钝化、阻挡和打破”任何俄罗斯攻击。这一概念是我们此前提出的“豪猪战略”的变体。
As quickly as possible, NATO must follow suit but with a new strategy that capitalizes on the operational and cost-effective asymmetries offered by unmanned resources. NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, U.S, Air Force Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, laid out his theory of victory in Poland last week. In a speech that has not been released, the general called for a strategy to “ blunt, block and break” any Russian attack. This concept is a variant of a “Porcupine Strategy” that we have previously proposed.
豪猪战略将使任何初始侵略的代价高昂到不可接受。在这里，大量廉价无人载具是核心。北约32个成员国可以在其侧翼和中欧部署数万架无人载具。想象一下俄罗斯面对32个乌克兰会如何。无人载具将部署在整个欧洲。在北部侧翼，英国、格陵兰、冰岛、挪威、瑞典和芬兰将作为这些单位的基地。同样，在波罗的海、地中海和黑海，波罗的海国家、希腊、巴尔干国家、土耳其、保加利亚和罗马尼亚可以作为无人基地。
A Porcupine Strategy would make any initial aggression so costly it would become unacceptable. Here, vast numbers of inexpensive unmanned vehicles are central. NATO’s 32 members can deploy many tens of thousands of unmanned vehicles on its flanks and in central Europe. Imagine how Russia would fare against 32 Ukraines. Unmanned vehicles would be stationed throughout Europe. In the northern flank, the United Kingdom, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Finland would base these units. Likewise, in the Baltic, Mediterranean and Black Seas, the Balts, Greece, the Balkans, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania could serve as unmanned bases.
在中欧，无人载具将成为对抗任何侵略的强大钝化器、阻挡者和打破者。无人载具的战略价值远远超出豪猪防御。它们将减少对美国的需求。
In central Europe, unmanned vehicles will be powerful blunters, blockers and breakers against any aggression. The strategic value of unmanned vehicles extends far beyond a Porcupine Defense.
驻欧 manned 部队，并吸收任何重新部署或向亚洲转移的兵力。在整个欧洲大陆——陆地之上、陆地之中以及海洋之下——运作的无人载具，将使“豪猪防御”成为阻止和扰乱莫斯科可能考虑的任何攻击的高成本效益手段。几乎每一支军队都在争相确定无人载具可以在何处以及如何增强或取代传统防御。乌克兰战争的教训在很大程度上是那场冲突所独有的。
They will reduce the demand for U.S. manned forces in Europe and absorb any redeployments or shifts to Asia. Unmanned vehicles operating across the entire European continent, in and over the land and under the oceans, would make a Porcupine Defense a highly cost-effective means for preventing and disrupting any attack Moscow might contemplate. Virtually every military is scrambling to determine where and how unmanned vehicles can augment or replace traditional defenses. Lessons from the war in Ukraine are largely unique to that conflict.
然而，将无人资源与人工智能结合使用，为北约提供了应对新旧威胁的最经济合理的战略。问题在于北约是否会利用这一机会。哈兰·乌尔曼博士是一家私营公司的董事长，也是“震慑”学说的主要作者。陆军元帅大卫·理查兹勋爵曾任英国总参谋长和国防参谋长。他们定于今年冬天出版的新书是《谁思考得最好谁就赢：果断的战略思维如何防止全球混乱》。
However, the application of unmanned resources, in conjunction with artificial intelligence, offers NATO the most economically sound strategy to deal with both the old and newer threats. The question is whether NATO will exploit this opportunity. Harlan Ullman Ph.D. is chairman of a private company, and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. Field Marshal the Lord David Richards was the United Kingdom’s former chief of the General Staff and chief of Defense. Their next book due out this winter, is “Who Thinks Best Wins: How Decisive Strategic Thinking Will Prevent Global Chaos.”