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别让历史重演:下一届国会必须结束伊朗战争Don’t let history repeat: The next Congress must end the Iran War

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由于有许多显而易见的原因,美国需要一个积极进取的国会在11月选举后出现,以准备恢复政府权力的平衡。如果伊朗战争仍在进行,新国会的首要任务之一应该是结束这场战争。

For many obvious reasons, America needs an aggressive Congress to emerge from the November elections ready to restore the government’s balance of power. If the Iran War is still underway, one of the new Congress’s first jobs should be to end it.

特朗普总统表示,他在选举前不会恢复对伊朗的打击。他之后的计划尚不明确。但除了夺取国会的战争权、损害经济、导致美国和伊朗人员伤亡之外,这场自发的战争还违背了总司令与美国家庭之间的神圣契约:即只有在国家安全面临明确且迫在眉睫的危险且别无选择,只能动用军事力量时,才会让我们的儿子和女儿参战。

President Trump says he won’t resume strikes against Iran before the elections. It is not clear what he plans for afterward. But in addition to usurping Congress’s war powers, hurting the economy and costing U.S. and Iranian lives, this war of choice violates a sacred contract between commanders-in-chief and American families: the assurance that our sons and daughters will be sent to war only when there is a clear and present danger to national security and no other option but the military.

相反,特朗普的贪婪、个人恩怨、自我膨胀以及未能从历史中吸取教训,似乎都在这场战争中发挥了作用。

Instead, Trump’s greed, personal grievances, ego and failure to learn from history all appear to play a role in this war.

贪婪:CNBC报道称,特朗普在石油和天然气公司拥有股份。他在战争前六个月的九项最大持仓为他带来了高达440万美元的收益。CNBC表示,“未发现证据”表明特朗普或其投资经理在股票交易中使用了提前信息,或让这些信息影响了政策。但这是众多例子之一,在这些例子中,特朗普制造了利益冲突的表象,即使事实并非如此。

Greed: CNBC reports that Trump has holdings in oil and gas companies. His nine largest holdings earned him as much as $4.4 million during the first six months of the war. CNBC found “no evidence” that Trump or his investment managers used advance knowledge in the stock trades or allowed them to influence policy. But it is one of the many examples in which Trump has created the appearance, if not the reality, of conflicted interests.

特朗普的儿子们在多家与国防相关的公司拥有投资,据报道,自其父亲再次成为总统以来,他们已从国防合同中获得数十亿美元。目前尚无公开证据显示存在非法行为,但这些投资制造了另一种利益冲突的表象,尤其是在五角大楼计划花费超过1万亿美元以补充耗尽的弹药和装备库存、修复海湾地区基地受损设施的背景下。

Trump’s sons, who own investments in multiple defense-related companies, have reportedly collected billions of dollars in defense contracts since their father became president again. No public evidence shows illegality, but the investments create another appearance of conflicted interest, especially with the Pentagon planning to spend more than $1 trillion as it scrambles to replenish depleted stocks of munitions and equipment and repair damages to its bases in the Gulf.

个人恩怨:特朗普用战争换取了外交解决方案——奥巴马时期与伊朗达成的限制其核计划的协议。他以具体的政策异议为由,宣布美国退出该协议。但也有人称,他受到对前总统贝拉克·奥巴马的个人厌恶所驱动。在一份泄露的外交电报中,英国大使称特朗普的立场是“一种出于意识形态和人格原因的外交破坏行为。”自我:包括布鲁金斯学会的罗伯特·凯根在内的几位外交政策专家认为,特朗普在伊朗的目标无法实现。

Personal grievance: Trump traded a diplomatic solution — the Obama-era deal with Iran to limit its nuclear program — for warfare. He pulled the U.S. out of the deal, citing specific policy objections. But he was also said to be motivated by his personal dislike for former President Barack Obama. In a leaked diplomatic cable, the British ambassador called Trump’s position “an act of diplomatic vandalism, seemingly for ideological and personality reasons.”Ego: Several foreign-policy experts, including Brookings’s Robert Kagan, believe that Trump’s objectives in Iran are unachievable.

但特朗普多次表现出,包括在2020年大选期间以及随后于2021年1月6日发生的国会山骚乱中,他不愿或无法承认失败。由于五角大楼和独立消息来源的说法差异很大,目前尚不清楚迄今为止有多少美国士兵在这场战争中死亡。平民死亡人数估计达到数千人。

But Trump has repeatedly shown, including during the 2020 election and the riot at the Capitol that followed on Jan. 6, 2021, that he is unwilling or unable to admit defeat. With widely varying accounts from the Pentagon and independent sources, we aren’t sure how many U.S. soldiers have died in the war so far. Civilian deaths are estimated in the thousands.

越南战争让美国人明白了拖延和平的代价。理查德·尼克松于1968年参加总统竞选,承诺结束越南战争。时任总统林登·约翰逊几乎促成了北越和南越之间的停火,约翰逊希望这能帮助休伯特·汉弗莱在即将到来的总统选举中击败尼克松。尼克松派遣使者告诉南越要等待,承诺在他任期内南越将获得更好的协议。约翰逊的和平倡议因此破裂。

The Vietnam War taught Americans the price of delaying peace. Richard Nixon ran for president in 1968, promising to end the Vietnam War. When incumbent President Lyndon Johnson nearly brokered a truce between North and South Vietnam, which Johnson hoped would help Hubert Humphrey beat Nixon in the upcoming presidential election, Nixon had a messenger tell South Vietnam to wait, promising it would get a better deal under his presidency. Johnson’s peace initiative collapsed.

约翰逊私下称其为“叛国”。尼克松的总统文件显示,他上任时承认战争无法通过军事手段取胜。然而他仍继续战争,并下达了未向国会通报的军事行动。他关注美国的可信度、南越的生存以及“荣誉和平”。但录音带和文件显示,尼克松也持续战争,以防止南越政府崩溃并影响他的1972年连竞选。

Johnson privately called it “treason.”Nixon’s presidential papers show that he entered office acknowledging that the war could not be won militarily. Yet he continued the war and ordered military operations that he kept from Congress. He was concerned about U.S. credibility, South Vietnam’s survival and “peace with honor.”But tapes and documents show that Nixon also sustained the war to keep South Vietnam’s government from collapsing and affecting his 1972 reelection campaign.

在尼克松干预约翰逊的和平进程与1972年大选之间的四年里,超过2万名美军被杀,超过10万名美军受伤,超过100万越南人被报告死亡——这是一位“不愿放弃失败战争”的总统的代价。尼克松传记作者约翰·法雷尔得出结论:“我们现在必须权衡显然的犯罪行为,考虑到所涉及的人命以及随后在东南亚十年的屠杀,这种行为可能比尼克松在水门事件中所做的任何事情更令人唾弃。”

During the four years between Nixon’s intervention in Johnson’s peace process and the 1972 election, more than 20,000 U.S. troops were killed, more than 100,000 were wounded, and over a million Vietnamese were reported killed — the cost of a president who “couldn’t let go of a failed war.”Nixon biographer John Farrell concluded, “We must now weigh apparently criminal behavior that, given the human lives at stake and the decade of carnage that followed in Southeast Asia, may be more reprehensible than anything Nixon did in Watergate.”

忽视历史:越南战争也教会了一些关于现代战争的艰难教训。科林·鲍威尔将军在其鲍威尔主义中将若干教训编纂成条。该主义指出,只有在关键国家安全利益受到威胁、目标明确、风险和成本得到彻底分析、存在可行的退出策略,并且战争拥有强大的国内和国际支持时,美国才应将军事力量作为最后手段使用。特朗普完全忽视了这一切。

Ignoring history: The Vietnam War also taught some tough lessons about modern warfare. Gen. Colin Powell codified several in his Powell Doctrine. It instructs that America should use military force only as a last resort when vital national security interests are at risk, objectives are clear, risks and costs are thoroughly analyzed, there is a plausible exit strategy, and the war has strong domestic and international support. Trump ignored all of it.

如果特朗普在1月之前尚未停止战争,下届国会必须制止战争。但除非选民在11月3日选出具有足够原则和骨气的代表,以可信地威胁将其罢免,否则这不会发生。战争正在伊朗进行,但现在主动权在选民手中。

The next Congress must stop the war if Trump hasn’t done so before January. But that won’t happen unless voters elect representatives on Nov. 3 with enough principle and spine to credibly threaten to remove him. The war is in Iran, but the ball is now in the electorate’s court.

威廉·S·贝克尔是《民主未被锁链:如何为人民重建政府》的共同编辑和作者,《民主在炽热时代》的作者。他之前曾担任威斯康星州司法部高级官员。他目前是总统气候行动项目的执行董事。

William S. Becker is co-editor of and a contributor to “Democracy Unchained: How to Rebuild Government for the People,” and a contributor to “Democracy in a Hotter Time.”He previously served as a senior official in the Wisconsin Department of Justice. He is currently executive director of the Presidential Climate Action Project.

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