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曼达尼正是我们一直在等待的中间派Mamdani Is the Centrist We’ve Been Waiting For

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一张黑白剪影,佐赫兰·马姆达尼面带微笑,多个彩色箭头从四周指向他的头部。Black-and-white cut-out of Zohran Mamdani smiling with multiple colored arrows pointing inward at his head.

纽约市长值得拥有新的追随者——在实用主义者之中。作者:乔纳森·切特 自从佐兰·曼达尼凭借突如其来的市长竞选点燃了左翼的热情,主流民主党人一直在沮丧地寻找他们自己的鼓舞人心的人物。哪位民主党行政官员既具备媒体敏感度,能够激发类似邪教般的追随者,又能在做出务实治理决策的同时,无视进步活动家们的无休止诉求?

The New York City mayor deserves a new cult following—among pragmatists. By Jonathan Chait Ever since Zohran Mamdani exhilarated the left with his out-of-nowhere mayoral campaign, mainstream Democrats have been dejectedly searching for an inspirational figure of their own. Where is the Democratic executive who has the media savvy to inspire his own cultlike following while making pragmatic governing decisions and ignoring the incessant demands of progressive activists?

如今,温和派终于找到了这样一位民主党人。他的名字是佐兰·曼达尼。

At last, the moderates have found such a Democrat. His name is Zohran Mamdani.

曼达尼的选举曾营造出850万美国人生活在“集体主义的温暖”之中的理论前景——正如他曾经所说的那样。这一结果令人理解地震惊。然而,现实却远比这更为平凡。

Mamdani’s election, which created the theoretical prospect of 8.5 million Americans living under “the warmth of collectivism,” as he once put it, was met with understandable shock. The reality, however, has been far more mundane.

曼达尼的竞选纲领已经包含了若干面向温和派的姿态。他表示将保留警察局长杰西卡·蒂施,她可以说是亿万富翁锡安主义警察——这三个身份在硬左派中从不受欢迎。他还承诺放宽许可制度,以鼓励私人开发商进行更多住房建设。在竞选期间,《纽约时报》曾问他:“在政治中,你改变过看法的一个议题是什么?”曼达尼提到了“私人市场在住房建设中的作用”。

Mamdani’s campaign platform already contained several gestures to moderates. He said he would retain Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch, who is, to put it plainly, a billionaire Zionist cop, three things never in favor with the hard left. He also pledged to liberalize permitting to encourage more housing construction by private developers. When TheNew York Times asked him during the campaign, “What’s one issue in politics that you’ve changed your mind about?”Mamdani cited “the role of the private market in housing construction.”

最重要的是,曼达尼强调了城市服务效率的重要性。这听起来像是一个意识形态中立的目标,并且曾一度被左翼政府的领导人所接受——包括20世纪初至中期密尔沃基的“下水道社会主义者”。但效率往往与进步利益集团产生紧张关系,因为这些集团通常更关注维护公共雇员的稳定工作和高工资,而不是最大化纳税人的投入产出比。

Most important, Mamdani emphasized the importance of efficiency in city services. This might sound like an ideologically neutral goal, and it has been embraced at times by the leaders of left-wing governments—including Milwaukee’s “sewer socialists” during the early to mid-20th century. But efficiency creates tension with progressive interest groups, which generally care less about maximizing taxpayers’ bang for the buck than maintaining secure jobs and high wages for public employees.

当选后,曼达尼放弃了一些进步主义的雄心。他最引人注目的竞选承诺之一是“快速、免费”公交服务。持怀疑态度的人曾质疑放弃公交票价收入的明智性,尤其是考虑到免费公交可能变成对其他纽约人不友好的流动无家可归者收容所的可能性。曼达尼仍表示他希望实现免费公交,但在与州长凯西·霍赫尔共同发布的初步提案中,他悄然采纳了批评者的立场,取消了取消票价的计划,转而专注于速度和可靠性。

Once elected, Mamdani retreated from some of his progressive ambitions. Among his splashiest campaign promises was “fast, free” bus service. Skeptics had questioned the wisdom of forgoing the revenue from bus fares, especially given the possibility that free buses would become mobile homeless shelters inhospitable to other New Yorkers. Mamdani still says he wants free buses, but in his initial proposal, released in concert with Governor Kathy Hochul, he quietly adopted the position of his critics, dropping the plan to eliminate fares and focusing instead on speed and reliability.

他将另一项雄心勃勃的提案——为2岁儿童提供普遍的托儿服务——缩减为更渐进的扩张,计划今年秋季先增加2000个新名额,随后几年再逐步增加。

He shrank another of his most ambitious proposals, universal child care for 2-year-olds, into a more gradual expansion, beginning with a modest increase of 2,000 new seats this fall and a goal of adding more in subsequent years.

在竞选期间,曼达尼承诺成立一个“社区安全办公室”,该办公室每年将花费10亿美元,并让平民工作人员而非警察负责应对心理健康紧急情况。这一设想本身就是一种妥协。作为州议会候选人时,他曾支持削减警察经费。作为市长候选人时,他建议转移职责。但作为市长,曼达尼最终仅为该服务提供了每年略超过4000万美元,即承诺金额的4%。

During the campaign, Mamdani promised to establish an “Office of Community Safety,” which would cost $1 billion a year and task civilian workers instead of police officers with responding to mental-health emergencies. This notion was itself a compromise. As a state-assembly candidate, he’d endorsed defunding the police. As a mayoral candidate, he suggested shifting responsibilities. But as mayor, Mamdani wound up providing just over $40 million a year for this service, or 4 percent of the promised amount.

作为候选人时,马姆达尼曾表示会放弃对市立学校的控制权——这正是教师工会的核心诉求。教师工会深知,若让那些在低投票率选举中当选的校董会成员来掌管学校,就能极大增强自身在教育政策上的话语权。然而他甚至在就职前就改变了这一立场。或许他意识到选民会就学校的教育成效对他进行问责,而把权力让渡给那些只追求提高教师薪资与保障工作稳定性、而非致力于提升学生成绩的利益团体,显然无助于实现他的目标。

As a candidate, Mamdani said he would relinquish mayoral control of schools—a key demand of teachers’ unions, which understand that putting schools under the direction of school-board officials elected in low-turnout races gives the unions enormous leverage over education policy. He reversed that position even before he took office. Perhaps he realized that voters would hold him accountable for school performance, and that his goals would not be served by ceding authority to an interest group whose incentive is to maximize teacher pay and job security rather than to produce good outcomes for students.

此外,他还推迟了缩减班级规模的承诺;虽然这一举措符合教师工会的意愿,但从成本效益角度看,它并非促进学生学习进步的有效手段。

He has also put off a promise to reduce class sizes, which teachers’ unions care about but which is not an especially cost-effective way to promote learning gains.

马姆达尼倒是兑现了冻结全市约40%公寓租金的承诺,尽管几乎所有经济学家都认为这种举措从长远来看只会让住房变得更加难以负担。不过这一做法其实只是延续了数十年来收效甚微的惯例罢了。他在住房政策方面最具新意的主张,就是推动简化审批流程以鼓励更多私人住宅建设。

Mamdani did follow through on his promise to freeze rent for about 40 percent of the city’s apartments, even though nearly any economist would say that the freeze makes housing less affordable in the long run. But this move merely followed decades of ineffective precedent. Mamdani’s most novel position on housing has been to push for a streamlined approval process to unlock more private home construction.

他还力促奥尔巴尼当局大幅提高对纽约富裕阶层的征税力度,不过目前仅成功推行了对价值500万美元以上的第二套住房征收“第二套住房税”的措施。此外,他仍坚持推行那个看似荒谬的设想:开办由市府运营的杂货店,指望借此压低食品价格。这一计划很难成功:政府雇员对复杂的超市行业缺乏专业经验,而通过补贴让公立杂货店以低于市场价的价格销售商品,既会威胁到小商家的生存,还可能催生黑市倒卖现象。面对这些质疑与反对意见,马姆达尼选择将公立杂货店的规模缩减为一个小型示范项目。

He has pushed Albany to raise taxes dramatically on wealthy New Yorkers, although so far he has settled for a pied-à-terre tax on second homes worth more than $5 million. And he has continued to pursue his goofy notion of opening city-run grocery stores that he believes would hold down food prices. It is difficult to see how this project could succeed, because public employees have little expertise in the complex supermarket business, and subsidizing public stores to undercut their competitors on price would both threaten small businesses and encourage black-market reselling. But Mamdani met these and other objections to his plan by scaling the public stores back to the size of a small demonstration project.

与此同时,他也向温和派伸出了橄榄枝。他推出了一项打击反犹太主义的倡议,一些亲巴勒斯坦活动人士谴责该倡议为资助犹太复国主义的犹太组织提供资金。他还保留了纽约警察局的战略应对小组,该小组一直在应对活动组织发动的恐怖威胁和激进抗议策略。民主社会主义者协会称该小组为“用于镇压异议的专门部队”,并要求曼达尼将其废除。左翼人士谴责了所有这些举措,这些举措以牺牲抗议者骚扰其目标的自由为代价,优先保障抗议目标的安全。

At the same time, he has made many overtures to moderates. He unveiled an initiative to combat anti-Semitism, which some pro-Palestinian activists have denounced for funding Jewish organizations that are Zionist. He also maintained the NYPD’s Strategic Response Group, which has policed terrorist threats and aggressive protest tactics by activist organizations. The DSA has called this group “specialized units used to suppress dissent” and demanded that Mamdani abolish it. Leftists have denounced all of these moves, which prioritize security for the targets of protesters at the expense of the freedom of protesters to harass their targets.

最近,他因拒绝解雇蒂施而激怒了左翼人士,因为本月早些时候,移民与海关执法局特工在纽约开枪击中了一名纽约市民。相反,曼达尼赞扬了蒂施——近期记忆中表现最出色的警察局长之一——称其打击腐败、将谋杀率降至近年来最低水平。

More recently, he has infuriated the left by refusing to fire Tisch after ICE agents shot a New Yorker earlier this month. Instead, Mamdani praised Tisch—one of the best police commissioners in recent memory—for fighting corruption and bringing the murder rate to its lowest level in years.

曼达尼并未放弃对以色列的敌意,而正是这一议题激发了他早期的政治生涯,并帮助他赢得了左翼的好感。在纪念以色列人10月7日大屠杀的声明中,他将大部分注意力放在了以色列反击行动中的巴勒斯坦受害者身上。但即便不是所有人都认同他所取得的平衡,他至少也在尝试寻求这种平衡。曼达尼已经认识到,甚至可能只是认识到,向犹太裔纽约人保证其安全的价值或必要性,即使他们在中东问题上与他持不同意见。

Mamdani has not abandoned his antagonism toward Israel, which is the issue that animated his early career in politics and has helped endear him to the left. In his statement commemorating the October 7 massacre of Israelis, he devoted most of his attention to Palestinian victims of Israel’s counterattack. But if not everybody loves the balance he has struck, he is at least attempting to strike one. Mamdani has grasped the value, or at least the necessity, of reassuring Jewish New Yorkers of their safety, even if they disagree with him on the Middle East.

这一承诺使他与巴勒斯坦自由运动中最激进的势力产生了分歧,这些势力试图让犹太复国主义者感到不安,甚至恐惧。当反以色列活动人士上周嘘声曼达尼并指责他犯下种族灭绝罪时,他们实际上是在回应这样一个事实:他正以全市所有人的市长身份行事,而不仅仅是其基本盘中最狂热的那部分人。

This commitment has placed him at odds with the most radical elements of the Free Palestine movement, which have sought to make Zionists uncomfortable, if not outright frightened. When anti-Israel activists booed Mamdani and accused him of perpetrating genocide last week, they were responding to the fact that he is acting as a mayor for the city’s entire population, not the most fanatical elements of his base.

或许在内心深处,马姆达尼更希望能领导一场真正的社会主义革命,而不是制作那些宣传城市工人修补路面坑洼的热门视频。然而,实施社会主义远比在集会上呼喊口号要困难得多。对于一个财政状况严峻、富裕居民随时可能迁往其他地区以保护自身财富、且必须依赖州议会与州长配合才能运转的城市而言,推行社会主义更是难上加难。马姆达尼所设想的“后犹太复国主义中东”同样如此——这一愿景远远超出了他作为市长的职权范围。

It’s possible that, in his heart, Mamdani would rather be leading a genuine socialist revolution than making hype videos of city workers filling potholes. But enacting socialism is notoriously harder than calling for it at a rally. It’s especially tricky to pull off in a city that faces severe fiscal constraints, whose rich denizens can easily move to nearby jurisdictions to protect their wealth, and that relies heavily on cooperation from the state legislature and the governor. A similar mismatch between ambition and authority applies to Mamdani’s vision of a post-Zionist Middle East, which lies well beyond the purview of his municipal powers.

值得肯定的是,马姆达尼迅速直面了其他社会主义领导人历经痛苦才领悟到的现实困境,他放弃了马克思主义所倡导的激进革命理想,转而选择循序渐进的改革路径。他迅速适应了自身职权的局限性。凭借出色的政治才能以及一批志同道合的社交媒体意见领袖的支持,即便他的工作仅限于日常的市政管理,依然能留住大批拥戴他的民众。马姆达尼发现,在纽约实现“社会主义”其实有个简单的诀窍:干脆放弃社会主义这一口号。

To his credit, Mamdani has confronted quickly the hard realities that other socialist leaders have learned more painfully, trading his Marxist dream of revolutionary transformation for patient gradualism. Mamdani has adapted quickly to the limits of his office. His political talent (and core of allied social-media influencers) has enabled him to maintain his base of adoring fans even as he confines his work to humdrum municipal governance. Mamdani has discovered that socialism can succeed in New York through one simple trick: abandoning socialism.

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