
开罗,10月19日 - 埃及议会预计将在本周投票,决定是否授权武装部队在利雅得请求支援的情况下,帮助沙特阿拉伯抵御也门胡塞武装的袭击。
CAIRO, Oct 19 - Egypt's parliament is expected to vote this week on whether to authorise the armed forces to help defend Saudi Arabia against attacks by Yemen's Houthis if Riyadh requests its support.
此举将使阿拉伯世界人口最多的国家更接近直接卷入由美国-以色列在2月对伊朗发动的空袭所引发的冲突扩大。
The move would bring the Arab world's most populous country closer to direct military involvement in the widening conflicts unleashed by the US-Israeli air assault on Iran in February.
阿卜杜勒-法塔赫-塞西总统周六在一次讲话中请求批准,表示埃及将“永远、永远不会忘记海湾的兄弟们”,并告诉沙特阿拉伯领导人,开罗将“采取任何措施来保护你们”。
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi requested the approval in a speech on Saturday, saying Egypt would "never, never forget our brothers in the Gulf" and telling Saudi Arabia's leaders that Cairo would "take any measure to protect you".
就像伊朗战争期间受到德黑兰袭击的海湾国家一样,埃及一直是美国主导的安全秩序的长期伙伴,而这一秩序正受到冲突的考验。埃及对伊朗战争的立场是什么?
Like the Gulf states that have come under attack from Tehran in the Iran war, Egypt is a longstanding partner in the US-led security order that is being tested by the conflict. WHAT IS EGYPT'S STANCE ON THE IRAN WAR?
塞西的言论标志着自伊朗战争爆发以来,当局一直倾向采取的更为克制的基调出现了明显升级。尽管埃及多次对其海湾盟友表达强烈支持,但开罗尚未公开承诺在冲突中承担直接作战角色。
Sisi's comments marked a clear escalation from the more measured tone authorities have tended to adopt since the Iran war started. Though Egypt has repeatedly voiced strong support for its Gulf allies, Cairo has stopped short of publicly committing itself to a direct combat role in the conflict.
5月,埃及拉法尔战斗机在阿拉伯联合酋长国的存在被酋长国国有媒体在塞西进行正式访问期间的报道中披露。埃及对该访问的报道未提及该部署。8月,沙特阿拉伯与土耳其和巴基斯坦签署联合防御协议时,埃及并未加入,尽管它表示正在考虑加入。
In May, the presence of Egyptian Rafale fighter jets in the United Arab Emirates was disclosed in Emirati state media coverage of an official visit by Sisi. Egyptian coverage of the visit did not mention the deployment. When Saudi Arabia signed a joint defence agreement with Turkey and Pakistan in August, Egypt did not join, though it said it was considering it.
基调开始转变,是在胡塞武装加强对沙特石油及其他基础设施的袭击之后。上个月,沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德-本-萨勒曼访问了埃及,期间他讨论了确保巴布-曼德布海峡和红海航行自由与安全的必要性,这两片水域两国都拥有漫长的海岸线。对埃及而言,利害关系是什么?
The tone started to shift after the Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi oil and other infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last month visited Egypt, where he discussed the need to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, on which both countries have long coastlines. WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR EGYPT?
埃及的经济稳定长期以来与产油的海湾国家紧密相连。埃及在海湾国家的海外务工人员汇款是埃及家庭获取外汇和收入的重要来源,而此时埃及正面临因食品和燃料价格飙升而恶化的双位数通胀。
Egypt's economic stability has long been tied up with the oil-producing Gulf. Remittances from Egyptian expatriate workers there are an important source of foreign currency and income for families back home at a time of double-digit inflation worsened by surging food and fuel prices.
沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋及其他海湾国家一直是西西的重要财政支持者,自2013年军方推翻穆斯林兄弟会高级人物穆罕默德·莫尔西总统以来,他们已向埃及提供了数十亿美元的援助、央行存款和投资。
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf countries have been among Sisi's key financial backers, providing tens of billions of dollars of aid, central bank deposits and investments since the army overthrew President Mohamed Morsi, a senior Muslim Brotherhood figure, in 2013.
“我们永远不会忘记,在那段时期,海湾国家的兄弟们一直站在埃及身边,”西西在演讲中说。安全问题又如何?
"We can never forget how our brothers in the Gulf states stood by Egypt during that period," Sisi said in his speech. WHAT ABOUT SECURITY?
分析人士表示,日益增长的安全担忧也促使开罗采取更为积极的立场。7月,地中海港口城市达米埃塔的两艘气体船只遭到无人机袭击,凸显出埃及无法期望完全与冲突隔绝。
Growing security concerns have also pushed Cairo towards a more active stance, analysts say. A drone strike on two gas vessels at the Mediterranean port city of Damietta in July underscored that Egypt could not expect to keep itself fully isolated from the conflict.
“我认为他们意识到,他们不能永远在这件事上袖手旁观,”皇家联合服务研究所智库学者H·A·赫利尔说。对于当局而言,经济和安全问题“是一体的”,他说。
"I think they realise that they can't be on the sidelines about this indefinitely," said H. A. Hellyer, a scholar at the Royal United Services Institute think tank. For the authorities, the economic and security concerns were "one and the same," he said.
沙特阿拉伯和埃及在确保红海航运安全方面也有共同利益,红海是沙特原油因霍尔木兹海峡封锁而无法出口的出口通道。埃及每年从苏伊士 Canal 交通费中获得数十亿美元收入。这些重叠的担忧意味着“沙特阿拉伯的安全构成埃及国家安全的一个组成部分”,埃及政治研究者和记者谢里夫·阿雷夫说道。埃及将带来何种军事实力?
Saudi Arabia and Egypt also have a shared interest in securing shipping through the Red Sea, an outlet for Saudi oil blocked from leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Egypt earns billions of dollars a year from fees on Suez Canal traffic. These overlapping concerns mean "Saudi Arabia's security constitutes a dimension of Egyptian national security," said Sherif Aref, an Egyptian political researcher and journalist. WHAT SORT OF MILITARY DOES EGYPT BRING TO THE TABLE?
根据军事分析师的说法,埃及拥有阿拉伯世界规模最大的武装力量之一,拥有数十万现役人员以及庞大的空军、陆军和海军装备。埃及从多个国家采购装备,其空军装备有美国制造的F-16战机、法国制造的阵风战机和俄罗斯制造的米格-29战机。
Egypt has one of the Arab world's largest armed forces, with hundreds of thousands of active personnel and large air, land and naval inventories, according to military analysts. Egypt sources equipment from a range of countries, and its air force operates US-made F-16s, French Rafales and Russian-made MiG-29s.
埃及每年从美国获得约13亿美元的军事援助,这笔资金有助于其采购美国军事装备。华盛顿在今年对一笔资金免除了人权条件,理由是自伊朗战争爆发以来,开罗发挥了“有帮助的作用”。
Egypt receives about $1.3 billion a year in US military aid, which helps fund its purchases of American military equipment. Washington waived human rights conditions on a tranche of the funds this year after what it called Cairo's "helpful role" since the Iran war began.
在2011年推翻前总统霍斯尼·穆巴拉克的起义之后的几年里,埃及武装力量在西奈半岛发动了针对伊斯兰主义武装分子的反叛乱行动。埃及还向沙特领导的联盟提供了空军和海军力量,该联盟于2015年干预了也门冲突;在也门内战期间,埃及对利比雅的伊斯兰国目标实施了空袭。
In the years after the 2011 uprising that ousted President Hosni Mubarak, the armed forces fought a counterinsurgency campaign against Islamist militants in the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt also contributed air and naval forces to the Saudi-led coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015, and conducted airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Libya during that country’s civil war.
自1991年海湾战争以来,埃及尚未进行过大规模的海外地面部队部署。当时,埃及军队加入了美国领导的联盟,将伊拉克军队从科威特驱逐出去。早在近三十年前,加马尔·阿卜杜勒·纳赛尔总统曾派遣埃及部队进入也门进行干预,该行动代价高昂,后来被比作美国在越南战争中的参与。可能提供何种支持?
Egypt has not undertaken a large-scale foreign ground deployment since the 1991 Gulf War, when its troops joined the US-led coalition to drive Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Nearly three decades earlier, President Gamal Abdel Nasser had sent Egyptian forces into Yemen in a costly intervention later compared to the US involvement in the Vietnam War. WHAT SORT OF SUPPORT IS LIKELY?
西西的讲话及其后续表态并未明确埃及最终可能派遣何种军事力量(如果有的话)。军事分析师表示,埃及军队进入也门境内进行部署的可能性不大。
Sisi's speech and subsequent statements have not specified what sort of military forces, if any, Egypt would ultimately intend to send. A deployment of Egyptian troops inside Yemen itself is unlikely, military analysts say.
退役埃及军官、阿拉伯发展与战略研究基金会负责人萨米尔·拉格赫表示,更可能的干预形式可能包括防空和海军支持。
More likely interventions might include air defence and naval support, said Samir Ragheb, a retired Egyptian military officer who heads the Arab Foundation for Development and Strategic Studies think tank.
他说:“威胁来自导弹和无人机,需要防空和空军力量。”他补充道,海军可用于保护船只、开展反海盗行动以及保护沙特海岸线。
"The threats, missiles and drones, require air defence and air forces," he said, adding that the navy could be used for protecting ships, naval operations against piracy and protecting the Saudi coastline.