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特朗普放宽对俄制裁之际油价从中东供应担忧下的五个月高点回落Oil prices fall from 5-month high as Trump eases Russia sanctions amid Middle East supply fears

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周一,油价在创下五个月来的新高后开始下跌。投资者在油价近期上涨后选择获利了结;此外,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普决定放宽对俄罗斯的部分制裁和关税,这也对油价产生了负面影响——这一决定可能会促使更多俄罗斯原油进入全球市场。据路透社报道,截至周一格林尼治标准时间6点19分,布伦特原油期货价格下跌了2.29美元(跌幅为2.08%),降至每桶107.57美元。该基准原油价格在周五已达到自5月19日以来的最高水平。

Oil prices fell on Monday after reaching a five-month high, as investors booked profits following a recent rise in prices. US President Donald Trump’s decision to ease some sanctions and tariffs on Russia also weighed on prices, as it could allow more Russian fuel to enter the global market. Brent crude futures fell by $2.29, or 2.08%, to $107.57 per barrel by 0619 GMT on Monday. The benchmark had settled at its highest level since May 19 on Friday, Reuters reported.

美国西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格同样下跌了1.95美元(跌幅为1.92%),降至每桶99.46美元;WTI期货价格在周五也创下了自9月17日以来的最高纪录。

Oil prices todayUS West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped by $1.95, or 1.92%, to $99.46 per barrel. WTI had closed at its highest level since September 17 on Friday.

特朗普于周五签署了一项行政命令,决定根据《格雷厄姆法案》免除部分针对俄罗斯的制裁和关税。上个月,在国会议员敦促他对俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动施加压力的背景下,特朗普签署了该法案。不过,这一举措对全球经济的影响仍存在不确定性。美国国务卿马科·鲁比奥表示,特朗普需要最多60天的时间来评估这些制裁和关税减免措施对全球经济的影响。

Trump signed an executive order on Friday to waive key sanctions and tariffs under a law known as the Graham Act. Trump had signed the law last month after lawmakers urged him to put pressure on Moscow over its war in Ukraine. However, the impact of the move on the global economy remains uncertain. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump would take up to 60 days to assess the effects of the sanctions and tariff waivers on the global economy.

据路透社报道,Phillip Nova公司的市场分析师普里扬卡·萨奇德瓦(Priyanka Sachdeva)指出,特朗普的这一决定似乎是在美国中期选举前夕再次试图控制油价;她认为,这一举措对解决霍尔木兹海峡地区的石油运输问题(该地区持续发生针对油轮的袭击事件)几乎无济于事。

Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insight at Phillip Nova, said Trump's decision appeared to be another attempt to control oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections. She added that the move would do little to solve actual supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on oil tankers continue, Reuters reported.

埃隆·马斯克计划于2027年向美国儿童赠送价值105亿美元的SpaceX公司股票。

KCM Trade公司的首席分析师蒂姆·沃特(Tim Waterer)认为,美国放宽对俄罗斯制裁的决定可能会增加俄罗斯原油的出口量。

Elon Musk plans to give SpaceX shares worth $10.5 billion to US children in 2027Trump eases Russia sanctionsTim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said the US decision to ease Russian sanctions could lead to higher Russian fuel exports.

然而,他补充说,美国政府的矛盾信息在市场中造成了不确定性。Waterer表示,石油交易者不太可能在美方豁免的细节和期限变得更清晰之前,完全考虑到全球供应的持续增加。路透社报道称,该豁免是在特朗普与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京达成协议之后出台的,该协议旨在将俄罗斯柴油出口至美国及其他国家。预计本月出口量将达到约230万桶,随后将增至每月约760万桶。

However, he added that mixed messages from the US government had created uncertainty in the market. Waterer said oil traders were unlikely to fully account for a lasting increase in global supply until the details and duration of the US waiver became clearer, Reuters reported. The waiver follows a deal between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to export Russian diesel to the United States and other countries. Exports are expected to begin at around 2.3 million barrels this month before increasing to approximately 7.6 million barrels per month.

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示,美国的行动将损害乌克兰。中东石油供应担忧尽管周一出现下跌,但石油价格仍受到与中东地区紧张局势升级和安全威胁相关的供应担忧的压力。路透社报道称,布伦特原油周五短暂触及每桶110美元,这是自5月以来首次达到该水平,原因是人们对航运安全以及全球能源供应可能趋紧的担忧日益加剧。

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the US actions would hurt Ukraine. Middle East oil supply fearsDespite Monday's decline, oil prices remain under pressure from supply fears linked to rising tensions and security threats in the Middle East. Brent crude briefly touched $110 per barrel on Friday, reaching that level for the first time since May, as concerns grew over the safety of shipping and the possibility of tighter global energy supplies, Reuters reported.

中东地区对商船的袭击导致海湾地区原油运输大幅减少。分析公司Kpler表示,上周该地区七天平均原油流量降至约每日850万桶,而前一周则超过每日2000万桶。Kpler还报告称,上周至少有10起涉及商船的确认事件,凸显了该地区原油运输面临的风险日益增加。随着油价下跌和风险偏好改善,比特币反弹至82000美元以上随着各国为可能的安全威胁做准备,地区紧张局势可能进一步加剧。

Attacks on commercial vessels in the Middle East have sharply reduced crude oil shipments from the Gulf. According to analytics firm Kpler, average crude oil flows from the region over seven days fell to around 8.5 million barrels per day last week, compared with more than 20 million barrels per day the previous week. Kpler also reported at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels during the previous week, highlighting the growing risks to oil shipments from the region. Bitcoin rebounds above $82,000 as oil prices fall and risk appetite improvesRegional tensions could increase further as countries prepare for possible security threats.

路透社报道称,埃及表示已准备好向沙特阿拉伯提供所需支持,以保护其安全和稳定,抵御也门伊朗支持的胡塞武装。美国中期选举前的油价展望星展银行(DBS)预计,随着美国中期选举的临近,油价将维持在每桶100至110美元之间。

Egypt said it was ready to provide Saudi Arabia with the support needed to protect its security and stability against Yemen's Iran-allied Houthi group, Reuters reported. Oil price outlook ahead of US midtermsDBS expects oil prices to remain between $100 and $110 per barrel as the US midterm elections approach.

银行表示,伊朗及其盟友可能会让油价和国内燃油成本保持在选民关注的问题清单之上。星展银行能源研究主管苏夫罗·萨尔卡表示,美国总统正在尝试不同的措施,以在中期选举前推动油价下降,且不对伊朗作出任何直接让步,路透社报道称。萨尔卡补充说,美国政府采取的措施,包括对俄罗斯制裁的豁免,只是短期解决方案。

The bank said Iran and its allies could keep oil prices and domestic fuel costs high on the list of concerns for American voters. Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS, said the US president was trying different measures to push oil prices lower ahead of the midterm elections without making any direct concessions to Iran, Reuters reported. Sarkar added that the measures taken by the US government, including waivers on Russian sanctions, were short-term solutions.

他表示,这些措施对全球石油供应的基本面影响甚微。总体而言,随着特朗普放宽对俄罗斯制裁的举措提升了增加燃料供应的可能性,油价已从五个月高点回落。然而,对商船的持续袭击、海湾地区原油出货量下降以及中东冲突的不确定性正在限制油价持续下跌的可能性。

He said they would have little lasting impact on the underlying global oil supply situation. Overall, oil prices have fallen from their five-month highs as Trump's move to ease Russian sanctions raises the possibility of increased fuel supplies. However, continued attacks on commercial vessels, falling Gulf oil shipments and uncertainty over the Middle East conflict are limiting the chances of a sustained decline in prices.

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