据美国银行统计，非洲企业发行硬通货债券的规模正以五年来最快的速度增长，该行预测未来几年这一势头仍将保持强劲。
African companies’ hard-currency bond sales are running at the fastest pace in five years, according to Bank of America Corp, which predicts issuance will remain robust over the coming years.
美国银行全球研究部董事总经理凯·霍普在周一发布的报告中指出，今年前九个月，整个非洲大陆的企业共发行了133亿美元规模的债券，其中32.5亿美元为私募发行。这一数值仅次于2021年创下的170亿美元纪录。
Companies across the continent raised a total of $13.3 billion in bonds in the first nine months of this year, including $3.25 billion in private placements, Kay Hope, BofA’s managing director for global research wrote in a note Monday. That’s second only to $17 billion raised in 2021.
霍普写道：“非洲企业的信用质量正在提升，评级上调的企业数量多于下调企业，各评级档次的收益率也普遍高于新兴市场平均水平。”她还提到，自2020年以来该行业尚未出现任何债务违约案例。
“Credit quality is improving, upgrades outnumber downgrades, and returns by rating tend to beat EM averages,” Hope wrote, noting there have been no payment defaults in the sector since 2020.
近年来非洲企业发债群体不断扩大：今年共有11个国家的企业进入债券市场融资，而2021年时这一数字仅为8个。今年发债的企业包括赞比亚的第一量子矿业有限公司、安哥拉的阿祖莱能源公司以及南非的沙索有限公司等。
Corporate credit has broadened in recent years, with issuers from 11 countries tapping markets this year, versus eight in 2021. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. of Zambia, Angola’s Azule Energy and South Africa’s Sasol Ltd. are among this year’s issuers.
展望未来，霍普预计每年新增债券发行规模将在80亿至120亿美元之间。她补充道，利差收窄有望吸引更多优质企业重返债券市场，不过利率上升也可能促使部分企业转向本地市场或其他融资渠道，比如银行贷款或海湾地区市场。
Going forward, Hope expects new supply to run at $8 billion to $12 billion a year. Tighter spreads should bring stronger and repeat issuers back, though higher interest rates may push some refinancing toward local markets and other sources such as loans and Gulf markets, she added.
在信用质量方面，霍普估算目前评级为CCC级的低评级债券规模为21亿美元，较五年前的32亿美元有明显下降。
In terms of credit quality, the share of lowly rated CCC-rated debt is now at $2.1 billion, down from $3.2 billon five years ago, she estimates.
虽然主权信用评级上限可能对企业信用评级形成制约，但她指出“投资者正逐渐忽略这些限制以追求更高收益”。今年非洲企业仅有一笔3亿美元的债券将于下月到期，发行方为非洲联合银行。明年则将有四家企业合计发行22亿美元债券；到2028年，这一数值将升至近70亿美元，涉及九家企业，其中南非电力公司需偿还的15亿美元为最大单笔债务，其次是图洛石油公司的12亿美元以及南非运输集团的10亿美元。不过，霍普警告称，主权债务问题可能会波及非洲的企业。
While sovereign rating ceilings could cap corporate credit scores, she said that “investors are increasingly looking through these caps to boost returns.”In terms of upcoming maturities, the sole African corporate maturity this year is $300 million, due next month from United Bank for Africa. Maturities next year rise to $2.2 billion across four issuers and jump to nearly $7 billion in 2028 across nine issuers, including Eskom Holdings Ltd., which has the biggest amount due of $1.5 billion due, followed by Tullow Oil Plc. at $1.2 billion and Transnet at $1 billion. Hope warned, however, that sovereign debt problems could seep through to African corporates.
她补充道：“在1490亿美元的主权债券中，有7%的评级为CCC/CC；同时塞内加尔也在寻求债务处理方案。因此，主权债务压力是一个必须警惕的重大风险。”
“with 7% of the $149 billion sovereign stock rated CCC/CC and Senegal seeking debt treatment, sovereign stress is a key risk to bear in mind,” she added.